【本文经授权转载自公众号“棱镜·腾讯新闻小满工作室”,作者肖望、王凡】
This post is reproduced from the public sign, "The Prism Steng News News Small Studio," by Wang Van.
“前一小时我还在谈笑风生,下一秒我直接懵了。”北京时间5月19日晚10点左右,币圈投资者汪帅(化名)对作者表示。
"I was talking funny the previous hour, and the next second I went straight." Beijing time was around 10 p.m. on May 19th, and the money-ringing investor Wang said to the author.
夜幕降临之际,虚拟货币的急速下跌,震惊了整个币圈。其中,比特币较当日高点跌幅达34%左右,一度跌至29000美元;以太坊(ETH)一度腰斩;其他新晋热门币种如狗狗币、柴犬币,跌幅也一度分别达到56%和64%。
When the night fell, the virtual currency fell so fast that it shocked the entire currency circle. Among them, bitcoin fell by about 34 per cent over the same day, once to $29,000; the Etherkom (ETH) was beheaded for one time; and other new hot currency items, such as dog-coins and firewood-coin, also fell by 56 per cent and 64 per cent, respectively.
“这次大跌,在历史上也排到前十了。”8年前就开始接触比特币、历经多次涨跌的汪帅对作者表示,在5月19日晚的暴跌潮中,他所持有的虚拟币账面价值暴跌近50万元,仅剩100多万元。他并未透露购币的成本价。
“This fall, which has been in the top ten in history.” Eight years ago, the handsome Wang, who began contacting Bitcoin and who has been on many spikes and downs, told the author that during the surge of 19 May, the book value of his virtual currency fell by nearly half a million dollars, leaving only over 1 million dollars. He did not disclose the cost of buying it.
和“币圈老炮们”玩的就是心跳相比,新晋韭菜的“惊魂一夜”则更有切肤之痛。
It's the heart beat that's playing with the Old Guns, and it's the night of shock that's going to hurt a lot more.
行情数据平台“币Coin”数据显示,截至5月20日上午7点半,过去24小时总爆仓达69.1亿美元(约合444亿人民币),约58万人爆仓。
According to data from Coin, the LDDP, as at 7:30 a.m. on 20 May, a total of $6.91 billion (approximately RMB 44.4 billion) had exploded in the last 24 hours, with approximately 580,000 people.
之所以会爆仓,在于较多使用了炒币平台提供的合约杠杆交易。每当行情快速下跌时,投资者来不及补交保证金,便会面临交易平台强平。数十万人爆仓意味着,近期较多炒币客在交易中使用了较高倍数的杠杆,侧面反映了买入者对后期行情的盲目乐观。
The reason for the crash is that more of the contract leverages offered by the currency platform are used. When the market falls fast, investors face a smooth trading platform before they can make up for the bond.
尽管3个小时后,比特币以及其他虚拟货币行情似乎逐渐“收复失地”,比特币重回4万美元附近,但爆仓者们已经灰飞烟灭的财富,却再也回不来了。
Although three hours later Bitcoin and other virtual currency developments seemed to be gradually “recovering” the ground, and Bitcoin reverted to the vicinity of $40,000, the Scatterers, whose wealth had been wiped out, would never return.
图说:519惊魂一夜后,比特币重启下跌,跌至36000美元附近
币圈遭遇监管“清醒时刻”
过去一年中,投机热潮的盛行,导致虚拟货币品种和交易量激增。海外市场上,全球第二富的埃隆·马斯克(Elon
During the past year, the prevalence of speculation has led to a proliferation of virtual currency varieties and transactions. In overseas markets, Elon Mask, the second richest country in the world.
Musk)允许特斯拉接受比特币买车,和传奇投资人保罗·琼斯(Paul Tudor
(Musk) Allow Tesla to accept Bitcoin for the car and the legendary investor Paul Tudor.
Jones)提议购入虚拟货币对抗通胀的方法,都吸纳更多人在2020年跑步进入虚拟货币市场。
Jones' proposal to buy a virtual currency against inflation has brought more people into the virtual currency market by 2020.
“美国政府在疫情期间原本用于纾困而发放的现金,部分流入了零佣金的交易平台。”一位美股分析师对作者表示,“新型交易平台更为便利的交易界面让炒股炒币游戏化,以及疫情导致的在家工作风潮也让网络社区言论更具影响力。财富效应让更多人不断卷入,人人仿佛都成了日间交易员,也让投机的风气在美股和币圈蔓延。”
“The cash that the U.S. government would have released during the epidemic, which was intended to alleviate the situation, was partially channelled into a trading platform for petty commissions.” An American analyst said to the author, “The new and more convenient trading interfaces allow for the gaming of shares, as well as the trend towards home-based work as a result of the epidemic, make the online community more influential. The wealth effect keeps more people involved, as if everyone were day traders, and the culture of speculation spreads in the U.S. stock and currency circles.”
在今年4月中旬之前,比特币的价格曾经从2020年的7000美元迅猛涨至6.5万美元,各类新晋虚拟币的涨幅更是“脱离地球引力”:狗狗币曾经一度上涨110倍,柴犬币曾经一度上涨28万倍。
By mid-April, the price of Bitcoin had soared from US$ 7,000 in 2020 to US$ 65,000, and the price of various new introverted virtual coins had soared “out of the gravitational force of the Earth”: puppies had once risen 110 times, and pyrotechnics had once risen 280,000 times.
但5月18日晚间,币圈遭遇“清醒时刻”。中国互联网金融协会、中国银行业协会、中国支付清算三大协会联合发布公告,提示防范虚拟货币交易炒作风险。
On the evening of May 18, however, the currency ring was exposed to a “silent moment.” The three main associations, the Internet Finance Association of China, the Chinese Banking Association and the Chinese Payments Liquidation Association, issued a joint announcement warning against the risk of virtual currency transactions.
图说:中国人民银行在5月18日晚间的公众号上发布三大行业协会关于防范虚拟货币炒作风险的公告
公告再次强调,虚拟货币不应且不能作为货币在市场上流通使用,并要求金融机构、支付机构等不得直接或间接提供与虚拟货币相关的服务,包括登记、投资、支付、兑换等;要求金融机构、支付机构切实加强虚拟货币交易资金监测;强调虚拟货币交易合同不受法律保护,投资交易造成的后果和引发的损失由相关方自行承担。
The bulletin re-emphasizes that virtual currency should not and cannot be used as a currency on the market and requires financial institutions, payment agencies, etc., not to provide services directly or indirectly related to virtual currency, including registration, investment, payment, exchange, etc.; requires financial institutions and payment agencies to effectively strengthen financial monitoring of virtual currency transactions; and emphasizes that contracts for virtual currency transactions are not protected by law, and that the consequences of investment transactions and the resulting losses are borne by the parties themselves.
这些要求属于重申监管规定。银行机构、支付机构原本就已禁止涉比特币和其他虚拟货币相关的交易,三大协会也都属于自律组织,但释放的信息让币圈不得不重视:中国互联网金融协会、中国支付清算协会均由中国人民银行主管,中国银行业协会由银保监会主管。
Banking institutions and payment agencies had already banned transactions involving bitcoin and other virtual currencies, and all three associations were self-regulating, but the information released had to be taken into account: the Chinese Internet Finance Association and the Chinese Payments Clearing Society were all under the supervision of the People’s Bank of China and the Chinese Banking Association was under the supervision of the Silver Insurance Supervisory Board.
曾有炒币客对作者表示,在虚拟货币的场外交易监管难度较大,只要备注中不要出现BTC(比特币)、ETH(以太坊)等虚拟货币的名称字眼,在金融机构和支付机构看来,可认作为个人用户之间的转账汇款。此轮风险提示后,监管部门是否会有具体行动,仍待观察。
The authors have been told that it is difficult to regulate off-site transactions in virtual currencies, provided that the names of virtual currencies such as BTC (bitcoin) and ETH (the Tails) do not appear in the notes, which, in the opinion of financial institutions and payment agencies, can be considered to be transfers between individual users.
5月19日晚间,币圈人士张敏(化名)对作者表示,三大协会的公告出来后,币圈人士也在观望其进一步的影响,“最近很多币圈的行业活动、论坛都临时取消了”。
On the evening of 19 May, currency circlesman Zhang Min (aliasing) said to the author that, after the announcement of the three major associations, currency circles were watching their further influence, “most of the recent industry events and forums in the currency circles have been temporarily cancelled”.
“马斯克也不是神”
图说:海外网友在Reddit论坛上吐槽虚拟货币投资人在4月和5月的境遇差异
除了国内监管释放收紧信号之外,马斯克的“突然反水”,也被认为是此轮虚拟货币暴跌的诱因之一,并导致他个人受到币圈信徒和其他参与者的质疑。
In addition to the tightening signals from domestic regulation, Mask's “sudden anti-watering” was considered to be one of the triggers for the fall of the virtual currency in this round and led to his personal questioning by the followers of the currency ring and other participants.
特斯拉并不是第一家买币的上市公司。早在特斯拉买币之前,美国上市公司Microstrategy公司就将资产负债表里的部分现金投资虚拟货币,但以1426亿美元个人资产净值高踞福布斯全球富豪排行榜第二位马斯克的下场带货,更具煽动性。“因为他有足够的资本,来证明他的预言。”追随者陈琪(化名)对作者表示。
Tesla is not the first listed company to buy currency. Long before Tesla bought the currency, the US listed company Microstrategy invested part of its cash in a virtual currency on the balance sheet, but it was more inflammatory to bring the next shipment to Mask, the second largest global billionaire in personal assets in Forbes. “Because he had enough capital to prove his prophecies.” A follower, Chen Qi, said to the author.
尽管此轮比特币上涨的动能被认为是机构投资者的进场,但摩根大通研报中表示,机构投资的作用被夸大,散户进场才是主要推动力。马斯克显然是散户中的“意见领袖”。
Although the surge in the Bitcoin round was considered to be an entry point for institutional investors, Morgan Chase stated that the role of institutional investment had been exaggerated, and that the main driving force was the drifting-in. Mask was clearly a “opportunity leader” in the diaspora.
社交媒体上,马斯克拥有超过5500万粉丝,尤其在全球的年轻一代投资者中具有号召力。对于散户来说,特斯拉在2月8日公开宣布已经购买15亿美元比特币,被视作“买入信号”。从消息公布到4月中旬,比特币从4万美元附近涨至6.5万美元附近。外界估算,特斯拉建仓比特币的成本价在2.8-3万美元附近。
For the diaspora, Tesla publicly announced on 8 February that he had purchased $1.5 billion in bitcoins, which was considered a “buy-in signal.” From the news to mid-April, Bitcoin rose from around $40,000 to around $65,000. The cost of Tesla’s warehouse bitcoins was estimated by the outside world to be around $288-30 million.
但马斯克突然“反水”了。上周,他在社交媒体上公开表示,出于挖矿不环保的原因,不再接受比特币支付购车。市场情绪转向负面。
But Mask suddenly “reversed the water.” Last week, he publicly stated in social media that, for reasons that mining was not environmentally friendly, he no longer accepted Bitcoin to pay for his car. Market sentiment turned negative.
马斯克对币圈空前的影响力和前后矛盾的推文,让其他币圈参与者对马斯克的态度从“搭顺风车”转为“划清界限”。
Mask's unprecedented influence on the currency circle and contradictory tweets have shifted the attitude of other currency circle participants to Mask's attitude from a “roll-by” to a “draw-off”.
“我们中间没有神。”为机构打理数字资产的投资公司摩根溪资本(Morgan Creek)创办人之一安东尼·庞普里亚诺(Anthony Pompliano)在社交媒体上公开喊话,“名人,运动员,音乐家,亿万富翁和企业家的重要性,并不像我们大家想得那么重要。比特社区曾经张开双臂欢迎马斯克。但如果他继续做愚蠢的事情,他也该尽快离开。”
“We have no God.” Anthony Pompliano, one of the founders of the company Morgan Creek, an investment company that manages digital assets for the institution, spoke openly in the social media, “The importance of celebrities, athletes, musicians, billionaires and entrepreneurs is not as important as we all think. The Bit community used to welcome Muske with open arms. If he continues to do stupid things, he should leave as soon as possible.”
在大跌中,管理500亿美元资金的“木头姐”(Cathie
In the fall, Cattie, who manages $50 billion of money.
Wood)则在5月19日当天举行的《商业周刊》论坛上“出面救市”,坚持看多比特币涨至50万美元。她同时表示,对于马斯克所担忧的挖矿不环保的问题,有解决方案。她提出,现在全球矿力大约为10-20GW,如果能够利用闲置的200GW的太阳能和风能等新能源,则可以实现比特币挖矿的绿色化转型。她同时暗示,特斯拉或许可以在这个过程中发挥更重要的作用。特斯拉旗下持有太阳城资产,专注于光伏技术。
Wood, at the Business Week forum on May 19, insisted on watching Dobitco rise to $500,000. She also said that there were solutions to the concern of Mask that mining would not be environmentally friendly. She suggested that the global mineral power would now be around 10-20GW. If new sources of energy, such as 200 GW solar and wind, could be used to make a green transition in bitcoin mining. She also suggested that Tesla might play a more important role in the process.
几乎在同一时间,“反复无常”的马斯克再度在社交媒体上喊话,称特斯拉有“钻石手”。这是一种币圈的网络暗号,暗示会继续持有虚拟货币仓位。虚拟货币随后跌幅收窄。
Almost at the same time, the “inflicted” Mask again shouted in the social media that Tesla had a “diamond hand”. It was a currency ring code that implied that it would continue to hold a virtual currency warehouse. Virtual currency then fell short.
“但问题是,没有人知道下周马斯克的心情会如何?”交易平台WeBull的首席执行官安东尼(Anthony Denier)对外媒表示,“当基本面不再重要,而市场只关注一个商人的异想天开或评论时,我们就进入了危险的领域。”
“But the question is, no one knows what the mood is like next week?” Anthony Denier, Chief Executive Officer of the trade platform Webull, said the external media, “When fundamentals are no longer important and markets focus only on the whims or comments of a businessman, we are in a dangerous field.”
“动物园币圈”里的新奇和残酷
> >. . >....................................................................................................
图说:海外网站Reddit论坛上,狗币持有者自嘲“坚持持有者”就好像“在泰坦尼克沉船时淡定演奏的音乐家”。
马斯克在币圈的带货能力,不仅限于比特币。
Musk's ability to carry goods in the currency ring is not limited to bitcoin.
虚拟币买入者邓杰(化名)就对作者表示,自己之所以买了狗狗币,就是因为马斯克不遗余力地为狗狗币带货,而买入柴犬币,也是因为马斯克发了一条疑似和柴犬币相关的推文所致。
The virtual money buyer, Deng Jie (aliasing) told the author that the reason he bought the dog price was because Musk had spared no effort to bring the dog price and bought the wood-dog coin, as well as because he had issued a tweet suspected of being linked to the wood-dog coin.
狗狗币和柴犬币都是新晋流行的虚拟币。狗狗币发明的初衷是为了嘲讽虚拟币而开的玩笑,柴犬币则是为了成为“狗狗币杀手”。但这些“新买入者”似乎并不在意这些被创造出来的“新币种”的历史、初衷、供需关系或是内部管理机制。
Puppy coins and pyrotechnic coins are virtual currency in fashion. Puppy coins are designed to make fun of virtual coins, while pyrococopic coins are designed to become “dog money killers.” These “new buyers” do not seem to care about the history, original intent, supply-demand relationship, or internal management mechanisms that have been created.
“我只是想买一张前排看戏的票。”一位新买入柴犬币者表示,“微信群里经常能看到买币然后莫名其妙赚了钱的人,我也想试一试。”但被问到是否给自己设立止损线或是计划投入多少本金时,他表示还没有计划。
“I just want to buy a ticket to the front of the show.” A new buyer of wood canine coins says, “I want to try as many people as I see in the microscopic community who buy coins and then make money somehow.” But when asked whether to set up a cut-off line for themselves or how much money he plans to invest, he says he has no plans.
“519惊魂夜”当天,曾经被马斯克带火的狗狗币和柴犬币的跌幅,都一度超过50%。除了狗狗币和柴犬币之外,市场上更出现了猪币、猩猩币、哈士奇、秋田犬等种类繁多的虚拟币,上演币圈“动物园”行情。
On the same day, the puppies and pygmies, which had been set on fire by Mask, fell by more than 50%. In addition to puppies and pygmies, there are a variety of virtual coins in the market, such as boars, chimpanzees, Haschi, Autumn Dogs, for the & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;
张敏对新韭菜的跑步入场表示担忧:“市场过多渲染狗狗币和柴犬币大涨的行情,刺激了许多新手小白入场,这已经是很赤裸地割韭菜了。”他同时表示,金融圈三大协会的风险提示很及时。
Zhang Ming expressed concern about the entry of new chords: “The market's over-reflection of dog and wood cougar coins has stimulated many freshmen to enter, which is already a naked cut.” He also said that the risk alerts of the three major financial circles were timely.
即便自称投机者的汪帅,也坦言“动物园行情”正在摧毁虚拟货币的价值判断,似乎只要买入任何一款虚拟币,再有名人带货,就能坐等币价暴涨实现暴富,甚至有新发行的“动物币”设立荒谬的规则,只能买不能卖。
Even the handsomest of the self-proclaimed speculators, the word “operatorism” is destroying the value judgement of a virtual currency, as if by buying any virtual currency and bringing it with a celebrity, it would have been possible to afford a sharp increase in the price of the currency to make it rich, or even to have a new issue of “animal currency” that would have created absurd rules that could not be sold.
汪帅向作者介绍,炒币市场7x24小时不间断交易,约有20%的炒币客会做合约交易(加杠杆)。而曾有统计显示,一个新手进入合约市场,到亏完本金的平均时间是45天。
Mr. Wang explained to the author that during the 24-hour round-the-clock market, about 20 per cent of the customers were engaged in contract transactions (leveraging). There were statistics that a new player entered the contract market, with an average of 45 days until the principal was lost.
对于后市,汪帅没有像此前那样乐观。
For the city, Wang is not as optimistic as he was before.
他告诉作者,三大协会联合发声,如果真的严格整治出金入金,对于虚拟货币市场将是一记重击。此外,内蒙设立虚拟货币“挖矿”企业举报平台,各地严查虚拟货币挖矿,可能会让市场行情雪上加霜,“起码几个月里不会有大的行情了。”
He told the author that the combined voices of the three major associations would be a blow to the virtual money market if it were to be strictly regulated. In addition, the creation of a virtual money “mining” business reporting platform in the interior of the country, and the scrutiny of virtual money mining everywhere, could exacerbate the market situation, “at least for a few months there will be no big deal.”
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