“比特币玩的就是心跳！”面对比特币近日暴涨暴跌，有投资者直呼看不懂。11月19日，比特币兑换人民币最高成交价达8000元人民币，较今年年初时上涨近80倍，但很快成交价就回落至5800元附近，截至昨日16时32分已跌至4383元，较前一交易日最高价跌45%。比特币近日的疯狂让不少国人关注，并对其是否能投资表现出浓厚兴趣。那么，比特币到底是一个怎样的投资品？投资路径如何？风险在哪？本文试图进行简单描述。
“Bitcoin is a heartbeat!” Faced with the recent surge and collapse of Bitcoin, some investors can’t see it. On November 19, Bitcoin exchanged the renminbi for a maximum RMB 8,000, nearly 80 times more than it was at the beginning of the year, but quickly fell near the RMB 5,800, falling to $4,383 at 16.32 yesterday, a 45% drop from the previous day’s peak. Bitcoin’s madness has drawn attention to a number of countries, and has shown keen interest in whether it can invest.
比特币是一种网络虚拟货币
比特币其实是一种网络虚拟货币，最初由自称“中本聪”的神秘网友提出。按照中本聪的设计，比特币不依靠特定货币机构发行，它通过特定算法的大量计算产生，前4年内只有不超过1050万个，之后的总数量将被永久限制在2100万个之内。 Bitcoin is actually a virtual Internet currency, originally proposed by a mysterious networker who calls himself a “medium-breathing”. By the design of medium-bone, Bitcoin is not issued by a specific monetary institution, it is generated by a large number of calculations based on a particular algorithm, with no more than 10.5 million in the previous four years, and the total number will be permanently limited to 21 million. 目前，一般人想进入比特币行业往往有两种方式，一种是购买专业的机器设备“挖矿”，一种是通过买卖交易等兑换方式。 Currently, there are often two ways in which the general population wants to enter the Bitcoin industry: by purchasing specialized machinery and equipment for “mining mining” and by means of exchange, such as trading and trading. 但由于算法本身的设计，比特币每四年产生的比特币数值会减半的算法，2013年-2016年平均每十分钟产生25个比特币，2017年开始，这个数会降低到12.5个。到了2030年2000万个比特币被开采出来后，剩下100万个比特币很可能需要几十年才能被开采出来；同时，随着挖矿难度增大，先进的挖矿机的价格越来越高，这给“挖矿”设了一个不小的“门槛”。记者了解到，由于“挖矿”蓝海早已不存，加上比特币价格的飙涨，让许多“矿工”直接改行炒比特币，等待升值后再抛出。 But because of the algorithm's own design, the bitcoin value produced by bitcoin would be halved every four years, averaging 25 bitcoins per ten minutes in 2013-2016, which will be reduced to 12.5 in 2017. By 2030, 20 million bitcoins were mined, leaving one million bitcoins likely to take decades to be mined; and, as mining became more difficult, the price of advanced diggers increased, which set a significant “threshold” for “mining”. Journalists learned that the “mining” blue sea was long gone and that, with the price of bitcoins skyrocketing, many of the “miners” were forced to cut bitcos directly and wait for their appreciation. 比特币交易过程与股票类似 Bitcoin transaction is similar to stock 由于比特币前期表现诱人，如今“炒比特币”在中国也日趋流行。比特币中国首席执行官李启元接受媒体采访时表示，近一段时间比特币中国的新注册用户数和用户活跃度都有了明显的提高，上升趋势非常明显，这说明越来越多的人正在接触比特币。 In an interview with the media, Bitcoin’s Chinese CEO, Li Qiwon, said that there had been a marked increase in the number and activity of new subscribers and users in Bitcoin in recent times, indicating that more and more people were approaching Bitcoin. 目前国内主流的交易平台包括比特币中国、OkCoin、火币网等。记者发现，交易比特币的过程和买卖股票十分类似。以火币网为例，记者注册后，充值人民币至网站账户就可以开始购买比特币，所购买的比特币存放在网站交易平台。若成功卖出，也可从账户中提取人民币到自己的支付宝[微博]或银行账户。与此前每次交易需要缴0.3%手续费不同，如今国内主要比特币交易平台都陆续取消了交易手续费。但通过财付通或网银充值仍需缴0.4%的手续费，如果人民币提现，则从每天第二次提现开始，按银行转账费率收取提现手续费。 In the case of a currency network, journalists can start buying bitcoin when they are registered to a website account. If they are successfully sold, they can also collect renminbi from an account to their own payment treasure 有专家认为，目前比特币更像纸黄金，而不是一种严格意义上的货币。 At present, according to some experts, Bitcoin is more like a paper gold//spanspanid=quate_hf_GC>, rather than a currency in the strict sense. 整体来看，比特币的投资者将面临四大风险：比特币实用价值弱、政治和法律风险大、平台安全性差。此外，对于炒卖比特币的投资者而言，庄家操纵所带来的比特币价格暴涨暴跌的风险也不容忽视。 Overall, Bitcoin investors will face four major risks: weak practical value, high political and legal risk, and poor platform security. Moreover, for those investors who sell bitcoin, the risk that the price of bitcoin will soar and fall as a result of manoeuvring cannot be ignored. 投资四大风险 比特币实用价值不高 invests four major risks with little practical value in bitcoin 比特币未来的发展前景，很大程度取决于其支付功能是否能很好体现。中国社科院金融研究所研究员张跃文此前表示，比特币并没有发挥出货币的核心功能——支付功能，而仅仅作为一种投资产品而存在。如果有一天，比特币不能跟现实世界主要的流通币种交易兑换，那么它的价值连一张废纸都不如。 The future of Bitcoin’s development depends to a large extent on whether its payment function is well represented. Zhang Jianwen, a researcher at the Chinese Institute of Social Studies and Finance, said earlier that Bitcoin did not perform the central function of the currency – the payment function – but only exists as an investment product. 政府监管态度不明 据了解，由于比特币交易并不在银行的监管系统下，很容易被用在从事非法活动上面，比如洗黑钱和购买毒品等。 It is understood that, since bitcoin transactions are not under the banking supervision system, they can easily be used for illegal activities, such as money laundering and drug purchases. 目前，除了德国已经明确比特币合法化、加拿大则诞生了第一台比特币ATM机等外，包括中国在内大部分国家对比特币监管没有明确态度。目前在国内，比特币仍存在监管缺失问题，现有法律条例尚不能完全适用于对比特币的监管。 Currently, with the exception of Germany, which has made it clear that bitcoin is legalized, and Canada has its first Bitcoin ATM, among others, there is no clear-cut approach to the regulation of bitcoin in most countries, including China. At present, Bitcoin has a regulatory deficit, and the existing legal regulations are not yet fully applicable to the regulation of bitcoin. 由于政策方面的不明朗，有业内人士担忧，每当监管当局采取行动，比特币价格就会剧烈波动，未来保值等方面均存在风险。 As a result of policy uncertainty, there are concerns within the industry that whenever regulatory authorities take action, the price of bitcoin is highly volatile and there are risks, for example, in the preservation of future values. 交易平台卷款跑路 Trade Platform Roll Run 记者致电火币网的服务热线了解到，虽然在比特币交易过程中，投资者需要从网银或支付宝这些工具将资金充值到比特币交易平台的账户上才能进行交易，提现也需要先往平台充值比特币才能提取人民币至银行账户。换言之，投资者的资金很多时候是存在平台上的。 The hotline for journalists to call the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s Democratic Republic of the Congo has learned that, while in the process of trading in bitcoin, investors need to charge their money to the account of the Bitcoin trading platform from Internet silver or payment bonds, and now they need to go to the platform to collect the renminbi to a bank account. In other words, investors’ funds are often available on the platform. 但比特币交易网站很脆弱，网站有可能遭到黑客攻击或者遭到主管部门的关闭，而网站经营者也有可能卷款跑路，这些都可能会给持有者造成损失。2013年10月底，一个曾经在比特币圈红极一时的交易网站GBL突然关闭，就在绝大多数用户还没有来得及将账户中的资金提出来的时候，GBL就已经卷款跑路。据不完全统计，受害者约500人，估计损失金额或将超过2000万元。 However, the Bitcoin trading site is fragile, with the possibility that it may be hacked or shut down by the authorities, and that the site operator may be able to roll the money, all of which could cause damage to the holder. By the end of October 2013, a trading site that used to be in Bitcoin’s red extreme was suddenly shut down, and the GBL was already rolling the money when the vast majority of users had not been able to come and present the funds in the account. 容易被庄家控制 is easily controlled by the dealer 今年以来，比特币已经坐了几轮“过山车”。今年2月底，比特币的价格还在100多元一个，到4月10日，价格已经冲高到了1546元，两天之后，价格已经跌掉一半。5月，比特币价格又一次闪电崩盘，最低跌到了300多元。11月19日盘中一度冲高至8000元。随后成交价开始回落，截至昨日16时32分，比特币兑换人民币的价格跌至4383元。 Bitcoin has been on a number of rounds since this year. At the end of February, the price of Bitcoin was still more than 100, and by 10 April it had jumped to $1546, and two days later it had fallen by half. In May, the price of Bitcoin fell again, falling to more than 300. 有投资者认为，如果将比特币看成一只“庄股”，近期的暴涨暴跌完全符合常理。此前有传言称，目前最大的两个“矿池”已经控制了比特币网络53%的计算能力。此外，美国孪生兄弟泰勒·温克莱沃斯和梅伦·温克莱沃斯在今年4月对《纽约时报》表示，他们购买了价值1100万美元的比特币，总计已经拥有全球1%的比特币。虽然这些并不意味着兄弟俩在“坐庄”，但是至少表明目前比特币的盘子并非特别大，有资金实力的人或者机构完全可以掌控更多的比特币。 Moreover, US twin brothers Taylor Winclayworth and Ellen Winclayworth said to the New York Times in April this year that they had bought $1 million worth of bitcoins, with a total of 1% of the world’s bitcoins. Although these do not mean that the brothers are “sitting down”, at least they show that the bitcoins are not so large today, and that the money-rich people or institutions can control more bitcoins. 背景资料： Background information: 比特币(Bitcoin)是一种由开源的P2P软件产生的电子币，数字币，是一种网络虚拟资产。比特币也被意译为“比特金”。比特币基于一套密码编码、通过复杂算法产生，这一规则不受任何个人或组织干扰，去中心化；任何人都可以下载并运行比特币客户端而参与制造比特币；比特币利用电子签名的方式来实现流通，通过P2P分布式网络来核查重复消费。每一块比特币的产生、消费都会通过P2P分布式网络记录并告知全网，不存在伪造的可能。 Bitcoin is an electronic currency generated by open-source P2P software, digital currency, a virtual web asset. Bitcoin is also meant to be “bitkin”. Bitcoin is derived from a code code code, generated through a complex algorithm, which is decentralized without interference from any individual or organization; anyone can download and run a Bitcoin client and participate in the manufacture of bitcoin; Bitcoin circulates by using electronic signatures to verify duplicate consumption through the P2P distribution network. Each bitcoin is generated and consumed through the P2P distribution network and informs the whole network that there is no possibility of forgery. 比特币不依靠特定货币机构发行，它通过特定算法的大量计算产生，比特币经济使用整个P2P网络中众多节点构成的分布式数据库来确认并记录所有的交易行为。P2P的去中心化特性与算法本身可以确保无法通过大量制造比特币来人为操控币值，基于密码学的设计可以使比特币只能被真实的拥有者转移或支付。这确保了货币所有权与流通交易的匿名性。 Bitcoin does not depend on specific monetary institutions, it is generated by a large number of calculations of particular algorithms, and the Bitcoin economy uses distributed databases consisting of numerous nodes in the entire P2P network to identify and record all transactions. The decentralized properties and algorithms of P2P can themselves ensure that the value of the currency cannot be artificially controlled by mass-manufacturing bitcoins, and design based on cryptography allows Bitcoins to be transferred or paid only by real owners. This ensures the anonymity of the money ownership and circulation transactions.
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