重回7万美元 谁让比特币“疯涨”

时隔两月，比特币再次站上7万美元关口。北京时间5月21日，比特币价格一路上涨，最高达71650美元，24小时内最高涨幅达到8.2%。分析人士认为，此番比特币价格飙升与现货以太坊ETF或将批准、资金流入数字资产市场、黄金价格升高等多重因素有关。但同时，币价走势终究无法摆脱“周期性”金融规律，将受到地缘政治扰动、美联储货币政策及降息预期的影响。

Two months later, Bitcoin stood again at $70,000. On May 21, Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin rose from $71,650 to 8.2% in 24 hours.

全线大涨

The whole line's going up.

除了比特币，5月21日，以太坊狂涨近20%，价格来到3700美元上方。其余虚拟币也几乎全线大涨，包括币安币、狗狗币、STETH币等价格均有6%至20%的涨幅。截至16时，以太坊价格报3659美元，是涨幅最大的主要虚拟货币。

With the exception of Bitcoin, on 21 May, the price went up by nearly 20% in Taiyo, reaching over $3,700. The rest of the virtual currency also rose by almost six to 20%, including 6 to 20% increases in the prices of currency, dog and STETH. At 1600 hours, the largest increase was in the primary virtual currency.

此前在3月中旬，比特币价格突破7.3万美元关口，创下历史新高，彼时受资金流入比特币现货ETF市场、4月即将到来的“减半”事件影响，比特币价格连连攀升。而在此之后，比特币又经历了“过山车”式波动，在5月初因美国通胀形势生变、美联储降息预期减弱而一度跌下6万美元。

By mid-March, the price of Bitcoin had crossed the $73,000 mark, reaching an all-time high, and the price of Bitcoin had risen several times as a result of capital inflows to the Bitcoin spot ETF market and the upcoming “50-per-cent” in April. After that, Bitcoin had experienced a “climbing” wave, which had fallen by $60,000 in early May as a result of the changing inflation situation in the United States and the expected decline in the Fed’s interest rate.

伴随多重宏观因素影响，这一局势如今发生了变化。在不少分析人士看来，此番比特币飙升正是受到以太坊价格上涨的影响。消息面上，有分析师猜测，美国证券交易委员会本周很可能会批准现货以太坊ETF。彭博ETF分析师将批准几率从25%提升至75%，显著提振了市场信心。

The situation has now changed, with multiple macro-factors. According to many analysts, the surge in Bintco has been influenced by the price increase in Etherm.

“从比特币现货ETF通过的范例已经可以看出，以太坊ETF的批准将为投资者提供更直接、更合规的投资渠道，如果以太坊ETF也能通过，很可能吸引更多的资金流入数字资产市场。”中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席、香港区块链协会荣誉主席于佳宁解释道。

“As can already be seen from the example adopted by the Bitcoin spot ETF, ETF approval will provide investors with a more direct and compliant investment channel, which, if adopted, would probably attract more funds into the digital asset market.” The Co-Chair of the District Chain Committee of the China Communications Industry Association and the Honorary President of the Hong Kong Block Chain Association explained in Kaning.

另一方面，数字资产市场的供应动态也对价格产生了影响。由于数字资产的市场供应量是相对有限的，随着需求的增加，其价格自然上升。于佳宁表示，一些大型机构投资者和资产管理公司，如ARK、21Shares、Hashdex、InvescoGalaxy和Fidelity，正在等待美国证券交易委员会对于其申请的现货以太坊ETF的决定，这表明市场预期有更多机构资金的进入，进一步推高了价格。

On the other hand, the supply dynamics of the digital asset market have also had an impact on prices. Because the market supply of digital assets is relatively limited, prices rise naturally as demand increases.

数字资产与黄金价格之间的关系也不容忽视。美国通胀放缓，降息预期不断上升，黄金、白银等贵金属价格近日不断升高。从比特币近期的走势来看，基本出现了与黄金、白银同方向涨跌的情况。

The relationship between digital assets and gold prices cannot be ignored. Inflation in the US is slowing, interest rates are expected to rise, and prices of precious metals, such as gold and silver, have been rising in recent times.

于佳宁同时提出，随着全球经济不确定性的增加，投资者寻求避险资产，而数字资产尤其是比特币，因其去中心化的特性和有限的供应量，被一些投资者视为“数字黄金”。因此当黄金价格稳定或上升时，数字资产市场可能受到正面影响。

At the same time, Janin argued that, as global economic uncertainty increases, investors seek to avoid risky assets, while digital assets, especially Bitcoin, are considered by some investors as “digit gold” because of their decentralized character and limited supply. Thus, when gold prices stabilize or rise, the market for digital assets may be positively affected.

波动风险未知

The risk of volatility is unknown

正如刷新历史新高后，比特币在4、5月遇到的“过山车”行情，在此轮上涨后，比特币能否继续“狂飙”，仍是未知数。在知名经济学者盘和林看来，对于投资者来说，比特币可能存在巨大的价格波动风险。

Just as Bitcoin experienced a “climbing” in April and April, it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will continue to “crash” after this turn. In the view of eminent economic scholars and Lin, Bitcoin may have a significant risk of price volatility for investors.

“数字资产市场的上涨和下跌，本质上是金融市场的基本运行规律。比特币作为代表性数字资产，具备了金融属性、产业属性、科技属性三大要素，同时已经高度金融化，因此大概率摆脱不了‘周期性’金融规律，即‘有涨必有跌、有跌必有涨’。”于佳宁说道。

“The rise and fall in digital asset markets are essentially the basic operating rules of financial markets. Bitcoin, as a representative digital asset, has three main elements of financial, industrial, technological and technological attributes, while at the same time being highly financialized, and therefore probably does not move away from the “cyclical” financial rule, which is that “up and down and up.” In Janin, he says.

比特币的走势，未来也将受到多种因素的综合影响。一方面，比特币现货ETF正预期将沿着黄金ETF的成功轨迹发展。数据显示，贝莱德的现货比特币ETF IBIT和富达的现货比特币ETF FBTC资产管理规模分别在49个和77个交易日内突破100亿美元，创下ETF资产管理规模纪录。

On the one hand, the Bitcoin spot ETF is expected to follow the gold ETF’s success trajectory. According to the data, the spot bitcoin ETF IBIT in Belede and the spot Bitcoin FBTC asset management in Fuda broke through $10 billion in 49 and 77 trading days, respectively, creating an ETF asset management record.

但另一方面，地缘政治的紧张局势仍然对全球金融市场构成扰动。于佳宁表示，在这种背景下，比特币作为一种去中心化的资产，可能会吸引那些寻求避险的投资者，从而推高其价格。但如果地缘政治的不确定性导致全球经济放缓，比特币也可能面临下行压力，因为投资者可能会撤资以避免风险。

In this context, according to Janin, Bitcoin, as a decentralized asset, may attract investors seeking to avoid risk, thereby pushing their prices up. If geopolitical uncertainty slows the global economy, Bitcoin may also face downward pressure, as investors may withdraw their investments to avoid risk.

此外，美联储的货币政策对比特币价格同样具有重要影响。于佳宁解释了降息、监管环境与币价的关系：如果市场预期美联储将降息，这通常会导致美元贬值，进而可能增加投资者对比特币等非传统资产的兴趣；降息也可能增加市场流动性，为比特币市场提供更多的资金，从而可能对价格产生积极影响。随着数字资产市场的成熟，监管机构可能会出台更多明确的政策和法规。一个更加稳定和可预测的监管环境可能会吸引更多的机构投资者进入市场，从而增加比特币的需求。相反，如果监管政策变得过于严格，可能会抑制市场的增长，甚至导致价格下跌。

Moreover, the Fed’s monetary policy has an equally important impact on the price of the currency. The relationship between interest reduction, the regulatory environment, and the currency price is explained in Janin: if the market expects the Fed to lower interest rates, this will usually lead to a depreciation of the dollar, which may increase investors’ interest in non-traditional assets, such as bitcoin; the interest rate reduction may also increase market liquidity and provide more financing for the Bitcoin market, which may have a positive impact on prices.

面对数字资产市场波动，投资者更要看到高波动背后的高风险。“数字资产依然是风险较高的投资资产，资产价格的涨跌幅度和速度都与传统资产有显著差异，重要的是采取适当的风险管理策略。同时，多元化投资组合可以降低单一资产的风险。应保持长期的视角，避免因短期的市场波动而作出冲动的决策。”于佳宁表示。

In the face of the volatility of the digital asset market, investors are more likely to see the high risks behind the high volatility. “Digital assets remain high-risk investment assets, with significant variations in the magnitude and pace of asset prices from traditional assets, and it is important to adopt appropriate risk management strategies.

北京商报记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱

Reporter of the Beijing Business Journal, Yoon Yu, Dong-hoon.