近期,比特币市场经历了一轮剧烈的调整,价格从近期高点骤然滑落,引起市场广泛讨论。那么比特币最近为什么暴跌?
Recently, the Bitcoin market has undergone a round of drastic adjustments, with prices falling sharply from recent highs, leading to widespread debate in the market. So why has Bitcoin recently fallen?
技术面上,比特币价格在触及5月21日形成的顶部约72,000美元后,遭遇了强大的历史阻力位。这一水平曾在上一轮调整中导致价格从72,000美元回撤至66,000美元,历时仅3天。技术分析师指出,同一阻力位的重复考验往往伴随大量卖出订单,因许多交易者选择在此价位获利了结或设置止损单,从而触发了本轮下跌。
Technically, bitcoin prices have encountered a powerful historical resistance after touching the peak of about US$ 72,000 that was formed on 21 May. This level has led to a fall in prices from US$ 72,000 to US$ 66,000 in the last round of adjustments, for only three days. Technical analysts have pointed out that the repeated test of the same resistance has often been accompanied by large sales of orders, with many traders choosing to profit from this price or to set a cut-off order, triggering the fall of the round.
消息面上,美国最新公布的非农就业数据成为导火索。数据显示,非农业就业人口新增超过27万人,远超市场预期。强劲的就业数据促使市场普遍认为美联储将继续维持高利率政策,以对抗通胀。这一预期直接打击了市场对9月份美联储降息的乐观情绪,导致机构投资者信心受损,纷纷选择抛售比特币等风险资产,引发大规模的“割肉砸盘”,最终形成多头踩踏效应,加剧了市场下跌幅度。
Strong employment data have led the market to assume that the Fed will continue to maintain high interest rates to counter inflation. This expectation is a direct blow to the market’s optimism that the Fed will cut interest in September, causing institutional investors to lose confidence and opting to sell risky assets such as Bitcoin, triggering large-scale & ldquao; sculpting & rdquao; and eventually creating a multi-step effect that exacerbates the decline in the market.
情绪面上,市场情绪的极端化也是推波助澜的因素之一。在比特币从57,000美元一路上涨至72,000美元的过程中,不少散户投资者经历了从怀疑到狂热的心理转变。前期市场的低迷使得部分投资者错失良机,随后在价格上涨时急于入场,形成了典型的“追涨杀跌”心态。当市场出现回调迹象时,这部分情绪化的投资者迅速变为恐慌性卖家,进一步加速了价格的下滑。
As Bitcoin rose from US$ 57,000 to US$ 72,000, a number of bulk investors experienced a psychological shift from suspicion to fanaticism. The downturn in the previous period led to a loss of opportunity for some investors, which was followed by a rush to rises, resulting in typical “ stifling and falling & rdquo; and mentality.
基本面分析显示,比特币通过ETF(交易所交易基金)的批准后,确实经历了一段不俗的涨幅,最高触及73,000美元。然而,随着价格在高位持续震荡,市场对于继续上涨的共识开始出现动摇。一方面,尽管机构资金持续流入,但在高价位区间,部分机构选择锁定利润,导致市场出现分歧。另一方面,市场对美联储降息的预期降温,减少了比特币作为对冲通胀工具的吸引力。此外,考虑到即将到来的暑期假期,欧美交易机构活动减少,历史数据表明,真正的行情爆发往往在秋季9月至10月期间,这也加重了市场的观望情绪。
Basic analysis shows that Bitcoin did experience an extraordinary increase, up to $73,000, following its approval through the ETF (exchange trading fund). However, as prices continue to shock at high levels, the market’s consensus on continued increases is beginning to shake. On the one hand, despite continued institutional inflows, some agencies choose to lock in profits in high-priced areas, leading to market divergences. On the other hand, the expected cooling of the market’s interest rates on the Fed reduces the attractiveness of bitcoins as a tool for inflation.
比特币近期的暴跌是多重因素共同作用的结果,包括技术层面的历史阻力、不利的宏观经济数据、市场情绪的剧烈波动,以及基本面的短期不确定性。投资者在面对此类市场动荡时,应保持冷静,理性分析,避免盲目跟风,同时做好风险管理,以应对市场的不确定性。
The recent collapse of Bitcoin is the result of a combination of multiple factors, including historical resistance at the technical level, adverse macroeconomic data, high volatility in market sentiment, and short-term uncertainty about the fundamentals. Investors should remain calm and rational when faced with such market turmoil, avoiding blindness and managing risks to cope with market uncertainties.
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