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来源：Thomas Smith
Source: Thomas Smith.
原文标题：Today’s Merge Could Vindicate Ethereum — or Destroy It
Original title: Today's Merge Could Vindicate Etheeum — or Destroy It
今天是加密货币历史上最重要的事件之一，那就是期待已久的以太坊合并。这次合并有可能彻底改变加密货币区块链的运行方式。
Today is one of the most important events in the history of encrypt currency: the long-awaited Etherbank merger. This merger has the potential to radically change the way the chain of encrypt currency blocks operates.
生存还是毁灭？无论是哪个结果，都会十分有趣。
Surviving or destroying? Either way, it'll be fun.
合并可能彻底改变以太坊，一夜之间它可能会变得更宏伟、也更环保。另一种可能是，网络崩溃，以太坊陷入泥潭，伴随着漫长的争夺和内讧，再也无法恢复过来。
The merger could completely change the Etherm, which could become more ambitious and greener overnight. Another possibility is that the network collapses and the Etherm is in a quagmire, accompanied by long rivalries and civil strife, and it can no longer recover.
在我写这篇文章时，以太坊的市值已接近2000亿美元，无论结果好坏，合并的影响都是巨大的。
At the time of my writing, the market value of Ethio was close to $200 billion, and the impact of the merger, whether positive or bad, was enormous.
合并是什么？
What's the merger?
自成立以来，以太坊一直使用工作量证明（Proof of Work），与比特币类似。工作量证明的本质是利用计算能力和大量的电力保证区块链的安全，为加密货币代币带来价值。
Since its inception, Etheria has been using Proof of Work, similar to Bitcoin.
以太坊背后的开发者（他们是一个去中心化的集体）越来越觉得工作量证明不具有可持续性。工作量证明的区块链使用大量的电力和价值数十亿美元的硬件设备。
The developers behind the Etherm, who are a decentralised group, increasingly feel that the workload has proved unsustainable. The block chain, which is proven by the workload, uses a large amount of electricity and billions of dollars of hardware equipment.
特别是在乌克兰战争之后，欧洲大部分地区面临着大规模的天然气短缺和电力供应问题，占用大量的能源来运行数字代币系统，令人感觉越来越不对，越来越站不住脚。
Particularly in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, much of Europe is facing a massive shortage of natural gas and electricity supplies, and it is becoming increasingly disconcerting and untenable to use large amounts of energy to run the digital money system.
出于上述原因，以及一些其他的技术原因，以太坊长期以来一直在运行一个独立的以太坊2区块链，该区块链基于权益证明（Proof of Stake）而不是工作量证明。在这种模式下，以太坊的交易是通过人们持有并 "质押 "网络中的以太币来验证的，而不是使用大量的算力。
For these reasons, as well as for a number of other technical reasons, Taipan has long been running an independent Ether 2 block chain based on Proof of Stock, rather than on workload. In this model, Ether trading is proven by people holding and " pledge " networks in taut currency, rather than using a large amount of computing power.
经过多次延迟和错误启动，今天以太坊的开发者计划将两个区块链合并在一起，把整个网络转移到对电力消耗较少的 "权益证明 "模式。
After many delays and misstartings, the developers of Taiku today plan to combine the two blocks and move the entire network to a " proof of interest " model with less electricity consumption.
合并何时出现？
When did the merger occur?
合并的确切时间是由事先确定的技术因素决定的。因为以太坊是去中心化的，所以没有一个人或团体能控制整个过程。
The exact timing of the merger is determined by pre-determined technical factors. Because the Etherm is decentralised, no one or group can control the process.
不过，根据网络目前的运行情况，合并可能会在9月14日晚上的某个时候完成（美国时间）。目前，许多团体已经聚集在一起，举行派对，庆祝这期待已久的时刻。
However, according to the current operation of the network, the merger may be completed sometime on the night of September 14 (United States time). At present, many groups have come together to party to celebrate this long-awaited moment.
有可能出错吗？
Could there be a mistake?
尽管合并令人激动，但还是有可能出错的。《经济学人》最近的一份报告中说，合并就像是飞机在飞行途中更换发动机。合并的总体目标是在网络不出现宕机。实现这一目标绝对是伟大的技术壮举。
While the merger is exciting, it can be wrong. In a recent report, Economists says that the merger is like an aircraft changing engines during flight. The overall objective of the merger is not to have an engine in the network.
不过，除此之外，还有一个更大的问题，那就是以太坊的采用。因为以太坊是去中心化的，所以不是网络的所有成员（或 "节点"）都需要同意合并。节点可以选择留在旧的工作量证明链上，造出一个所谓的网络 "分叉"。
But beyond that, there is a bigger problem, namely, the adoption of Etheria. Because it is decentralized, not all members of the network (or "nodes " ) need to agree to merge. Nodes can choose to stay on the old workload proof chain and create a so-called network " fork ".
有些人一定会这这么做。在工作量证明模式下，为了参与验证交易，很多矿工在设备上投入了数百万美元，所以他们很可能不愿意完全放弃这种模式。
Some people are sure to do that. Under the workload proof model, many miners spend millions of dollars on equipment in order to be involved in certification transactions, so they are likely to be reluctant to abandon the model altogether.
也就是说，许多交易所和去中心化的金融应用程序可能会转移到新的以太坊区块链上。如果这么做的人数够多，旧的链就会有点像垂死的购物中心；你还可以在那开店，但由于没有大的主力店，没有人流，你的商品销量肯定不会很好。
In other words, many exchanges and decentralized financial applications could be transferred to the new Ether section chain. If there were enough people to do so, the old chain would be kind of like a dying shopping mall; you could also open a shop there, but since there is no one to flow, your sales would certainly not be good.
从长远来看，向以太坊2的转移是权益证明模式成功的一次大规模实验。这有点像美国从金本位制过渡到今天的货币。以前，货币有真正的资产作为抵押品——黄金。今天，我们使用的货币并没有任何抵押，事实上只是政府说它是法定货币，人们就使用它而已。
In the long run, the shift to Ether-Team-2 is a large-scale experiment that has been successful in a pro-equity model. It's kind of like the US transition from a gold-based system to today's currency. Previously, the currency had real assets as collateral — gold. Today, the currency we use has no collateral, and in fact the government says it is the legal currency, and people use it.
合并也是如此。以前，以太币至少是与挖矿相关的，它还可能有一些内在的价值。合并后，价值将主要基于有多少人选择持有这些币。
The same is true of mergers. Previously, the Ether currency was at least associated with mining, and it may have some intrinsic value. When merged, the value would be based mainly on how many people chose to hold those currencies.
人们可以拒绝合并，将以太坊分割成多个在不同模式下运行的区块链，破坏以太坊的价值。合并也可能会告诉大家，权益证明无法大规模实施，摆脱能源密集型区块链的实验只是一个乌托邦式的梦想。
One can reject the merger, dividing it into multiple blocks that operate in different modes, and destroying Ether’s value. The merger may also tell you that it proved impossible to implement it on a large scale, and that the experiment to move away from the energy-intensive sector chain is a utopian dream.
合并会带来什么好处？
What are the benefits of mergers?
以太坊的合并也可能带来很多好处。如果网络开发者在保持运营的情况下，完成了将网络转移到新的模式，这对那些认为互联网应该是去中心化和开放的人们而言，是一项可以引以为傲的成就（这一概念目前被称为Web3）。
The merger of the Etherms can also bring many benefits. If network developers, while operating, have completed the transfer of the network to a new model, this is a proud achievement for those who believe that the Internet should be decentralised and open (the concept is now known as Web3).
以前，网络上的服务由大型公司提供。如果以太坊的去中心化和非正规军的开发人员能够以更少的资源完成同样的过程，这会是验证区块链及其去中心化模式的一大进步。
In the past, services on the network were provided by large companies. If the same process can be done with fewer resources by the developers of the decentralised and non-regular army, this would be a major advance in the verification of block chains and their decentralization patterns.
不过，合并的最大好处是，它会从根本上减少挖矿所消耗的电力，而且变革的速度非常快。因为相比工作量证明所需的电力，权益证明只需要极少量的电，所以升级到以太坊2将像是把国家从电网里解救出来。
The greatest benefit of the merger, however, is that it will fundamentally reduce the amount of electricity consumed by mining, and the pace of change is very fast. Because the amount of electricity that the workload proves to be needed will be minimal, the upgrading to Etheria 2 would seem to save the country from the grid.
没有人确切地知道合并的未来是怎么样的，部分原因是没有人确切地知道以太币目前是在哪里以及如何被铸造的。如果挖矿是在几个地方进行的，这些地方的电价可能会迅速下降，因为需求没有了。有些地方甚至可能出现电网不稳定的情况，希望电力运营商能预见到合并的影响，做好准备。
No one knows exactly what the future of the merger is, in part because no one knows exactly where and how the Ether is currently forged. If the mining is done in several places, the price of electricity in these places may fall rapidly, because demand is gone. In some places, there may even be grid instability, and electricity operators are expected to anticipate the effects of the merger and be prepared.
长期来看，如果权益证明有效，其他的区块链也可以转为这种模式。区块链的长期可持续性将得到巩固，并消除其最昂贵的问题，即它们所消耗的大量电力和硬件。
The long-term sustainability of the block chain will be consolidated and its most expensive problem, that is, the amount of electricity and hardware they consume, will be eliminated.
准备好!
Get ready!
无论发生什么，这次合并对加密货币世界来说都是重要事件。它可以验证区块链的重要性，在一夜之间摧毁数十亿美元的价值，或者在这两个极端之间取得部分平衡。
Whatever happens, this merger is an important event for the encrypt currency world. It confirms the importance of block chains, destroying billions of dollars overnight, or striking a partial balance between these two extremes.
无论哪种方式，合并都会完成。拿出爆米花，盯着你的币，我们一起看看今天会发生什么。
Either way, the merger will be completed. Take out popcorn, stare at your currency, and let's see what happens today.
本文仅供参考，不应理解为投资、税务或法律建议。在做出任何重大的财务决定之前，一定要咨询专业顾问，针对自身情况，听取建议，永远不要把超过承受范围的钱用于投资。本文作者Thomas Smith持有多元化的投资组合，包括各种证券和加密货币。返回搜狐，查看更多
For information purposes only, it should not be understood as an investment, tax or legal recommendation. Before any major financial decision is made, it is important to consult a professional consultant and to listen to advice, and never to invest any money over and above the range. The author Thomas Smith holds a diversified portfolio, including various securities and encrypted currencies.
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