文 | 黄雪姣 编辑 | 郝方舟
♪ The yellow snow ♪ ♪ The yellow snow ♪ ♪ The ark of Hao ♪
?出品 | Odaily星球日报（ID：o-daily）
♪ From ♪ ♪ nbsp; nbsp; Odaily Planet (ID:o-daily) ♪
人们盼望已久的减半“先遣军”，BCH，终于迎来减半。
The long-awaited halving of the “advanced army” and the “BCH” finally halved.
北京时间 4 月 8 日 20:19，高度为 630000 的 BCH 区块被 Antpool 矿池挖出，区块奖励从原先的 12.5 个 BCH 变成 6.25 个 BCH，宣告 BCH 减产完成。
On April 8th, Beijing Time 20:19, the BCH block with a height of 630,000 was excavated by the Antpool pond, and the block reward was changed from 12.5 BCH to 6.25 BCH, declaring BCH production cut complete.
当前 BCH 全网算力约为 3.69 EH/s，挖矿难度为 523.62 G，BCH 价格位于 265 美元上方，相较 24 小时内高点下跌近 5%。
The current full net power of BCH is about 3.69 EH/s, with mining difficulties of 523.62 G, BCH prices above US$ 265, falling by almost 5 per cent over 24 hours.
被空头盯上的BCH还能有“减半行情”吗？
Do you think there's still a "50-per-cent" of the BCH that's on the spot?
这是 BCH 自 2017 年离 BTC“出走”以来的首次减半，因此并没什么“历史”可做参考。
This is the first time that BCH has been halved since the BTC ran away in 2017, so there is no “historical” reference.
但作为比特币的“大太子”，又先于比特币一个月减半，BCH（及其分叉币 BSV）的价格表现被不少人寄予厚望。
However, as the “big prince” of Bitcoin, the price performance of the BCH (and its split BSV) was placed in high expectations by a number of people before the Bitcoin was halved in a month.
今早起，BCH 和 BSV 的价格开始拉升，领涨主流加密数字币。
Since this morning, the prices of BCH and BSV have started to rise to the mainstream encrypted digital currency.
上午 10 点，BCH 自 251 美元一路上涨至最高点 280 美元，最大涨幅达 11.55%；BSV 也不甘示弱，几乎同时从 184 美元拉升至 220 美元附近，最大涨幅达 19.5%。
At 10 a.m., BCH rose from $251 to its peak of 280 the United States dollar, with a maximum increase of 11.55 per cent; the BSV, with an almost simultaneous increase from $184 to 220 and the United States dollar, with a maximum increase of 19.5 per cent.
投资者最关注的问题，是这样的上涨在减半后能持续吗，还是会掉头？
What is of the greatest concern to investors is whether such an increase will last until it is halved, or will it turn around?
Odaily星球日报采访了部分 BCH 支持者和持币者，其中认为 BCH 后续会下跌的不在少数。
The Odaily Daily Planet interviewed some BCH supporters and currency bearers, who did not believe that BCH would fall in the future.
从多空比的角度观察 OKEx 上 BCH 的合约情况，过去连续两日（4.6-4.7），空头持仓比例大于多头；而到今日 5 点-10 点，多头短暂压过空头；但随着 BCH 在 10 点开始拉升，空头再次占据上风。OKEx 数据显示，BCH 交割合约做空账户数已经达到做多账户的 1.5 倍。
Looking at the BCH contract on OKEx from a multi-space ratio perspective, there have been two consecutive days (4.6-4.7) in the past, with a larger share of empty head holdings; today, 5 to 10 pm, with more head short pressure over head; but with BCH starting to pull up at 10 pm, the empty head again takes over. OKEx data show that the number of empty accounts for BCH turn-off contracts has reached 1.5 times the number of multi-accounts.
数据来自：OKEx，采集时间：4月8日14:00
数据来自：OKEx，采集时间：4月8日14:00
OKEx 投研总监“K爷”分析认为，空头情绪较浓，主要是由于很多投资者朋友比较担心“靴子落地”行情的出现。有这样的风险意识，是一名合格投资者的基本素养。毕竟莱特币的减产行情过去不到一年，大家仍记忆犹新。
According to OKEx's research director, Mr. K., the mood is stronger, mainly because many investors’ friends are more concerned about the appearance of “tweeds on the ground.” Such a sense of risk is an essential element of a qualified investor.
LTC 去年 8 月减半的情形，加密分析师“区块链威廉”在博客中做了细致回顾。
In the case of LTC, which was halved in August last year, the cryptoanalyst, William the Block Chain, gave a detailed review in his blog.
“首先是减半前微涨，不算什么大的反应。大家普遍认为‘减半没行情了’。不曾料减半后居然有‘亮点’，市场突然拉涨，突破 100 美金，但那之后一根针插下去，到现在都没回去过。不过，这也有个重要因素是大环境在下行。“
“First, it's not a big reaction. There's a general feeling that it's not going to work until it's halved. It's not surprising that there's a light spot when it's halved, and the market suddenly rises, breaking 100 the dollar, but then a needle gets stuck and never goes back. But one important factor is that the environment is going down.”
“历史总是惊人的相似，但未必接连相似。这一次，你看到历史上演的也许是 A 方案，或 B 方案、C 方案，这些方案都曾在历史中出现过。此时，去判断是否会发生‘靴子落地’行情，我认为意义并不大，因为短期价格走势的精准预测确实很难。”K爷向 Odaily星球日报表示。
“History is always strikingly similar, but not necessarily consecutively. This time, you see that history has been played perhaps in scenarios A, or B, or C, which have all appeared in history. At this point, it doesn’t matter, I think, to judge whether ‘the boots fall on the ground’, because precise predictions of short-term price movements are difficult.” Mr. K said to the Odaily Planet.
部分人对 BCH 减半后的行情较为悲观，也有人认为减半行情或许根本不存在，即使有也很可能像 LTC 那样被提前消耗了。
Part of the population is more pessimistic about how the BCH has been reduced by half, and some believe that it may not exist at all and that even if it had, it might have been consumed as early as LTC.
“所谓马上要减半所以有行情，这个说法从头到尾都是比特币带来的信心和共识，其他币并没有这样的共识基础，也没有比特币减半带来的市场供应量大幅衰减。”区块链威廉指出。
“There is a sense of trust and consensus in Bitcoin from the beginning to the end, and there is no such basis for consensus in other currencies, nor is there a significant decline in market supply as a result of halving Bitcoin.” William of the Block Chain points out.
从统计数据看，2020 年以来，BCH 和 BSV 总体呈先上涨后下降的走势，不少持币者相信，价格整体上涨的背后，减半效应的影响因子居功不小。
According to statistical data, 2020 since then, BCH and BSV have generally been on the rise and declining trend, with many currency holders believing that behind the overall price rise, the impact of halving the effects is not insignificant.
BCH 曾在 2 月 15 日达到 495 美元的年内高点，累计涨幅达 155%，但在随后一个月内不断“回撤”，至 3 月 13 日触底，累计跌幅为 71%。
BCH reached an annual high of $495 on February 15, with a cumulative increase of 155 per cent, but continued to “roll back” in the following month, reaching 71 per cent at the bottom of March 13.
BSV 年内有两次大的上涨，第一次发生在 1 月 10 日的独立行情，BSV 在 4 日内录得 280% 的涨幅，相较年初更是上涨了 320%，但在 3 月的大暴跌中同样回撤了近 75%。
The BSV saw two major increases in the year, the first on January 10, when BSV recorded 280 per cent & nbsp in 4 days; the increase was 320 per cent more than at the beginning of the year, but the same drop was nearly 75 per cent in March.
经过几番涨跌之后，BitUniverse 数据显示，BCH 和 BSV 在 Q1 仍成为位数不多向上的主流币，涨幅分别为 6.9% 和 73%。
After several spikes and drops, BitUniverses data show that BCH and BSV remain the dominant currencies in Q1 with little upwards in bits, increasing by 6.9 per cent and 73 per cent, respectively.
那这是否代表“减半利好”已燃烧殆尽？
Does that mean that the “half-per-cent profit” has burned out?
K爷的观点颇为乐观，“我们要将减半这件事分成两个影响阶段，一个是短期的‘吹泡泡’阶段，另一个是长期的‘垒砖头’阶段。减半是对长期供需形成影响，所以，减半行情不会过早结束。”
Mr. K's view is optimistic: “We have to divide the reduction into two stages of impact: the short-term “blow bubble” phase and the long-term “brick” phase. Halving is an impact on long-term supply and demand, so halving does not end prematurely.”
“区块链威廉”结合 LTC 的经验，持消极观点。“主流币减半后通常跟大趋势，很可能就没什么独立行情了。”但他补充道，BCH、BSV 和 LTC 不同的地方是，这次减半的双币背后都有强有力的“主力”。
William the Block Chain, in combination with the LTC experience, has a negative view. “When the mainstream currency is halved, it is likely that there will be little independence.” He adds, unlike BCH, BSV and LTC, there is a strong “master” behind the two coins that halve this time.
减半后，BCH会缺算力吗？
Will the BCH lose its capacity when it's halved?
减半最直接的负面作用，是对挖矿收益的影响。
The most immediate negative effect of halving is the impact on mining revenues.
随着收益的降低，部分矿工离场，或转而挖 BTC，由此造成短期的算力下降（半个月-1 个月），属正常现象。
It is normal for some miners to leave or turn to BTC as their earnings decrease, resulting in a short-term decline in arithmetical capacity (half-month-1 month).
但如果你担心 BCH 网络会因此不安全，那就多虑了。
But if you're worried that the BCH network will be unsafe as a result, it's too much to worry about.
数据来自：BTC.com，采集时间：4月8日16:00
BCH 排前五的矿池，除了一个“未知”外，其余矿池均为曾在分叉 BTC 或 BCH&BSV 算力战中明确支持BCH的世界矿池，包括比特大陆旗下的 AntPool、BTC.com，比特大陆投资的微比特矿池 ViaBTC，以及江卓尔的莱比特矿池 BTC.TOP。
The BCH top five ponds, with the exception of an “unknown” one, are the world ponds that explicitly supported BCH during the split-fork BTC or BCH&BSV operations, including AntPool, BTC.com under the flag of the Bit continent, ViaBT, which was invested in the Bit continent, and BTC.TOP, which is located in Lebit, Jiangchallor.
其中，江卓尔在不久前的“BCH 矿工捐赠计划”中投出反对票，并表示其将用个人持有 3500P 算力（约等于减半前 BCH 的全网算力）来捍卫 BCH 的利益。因此，如 BCH 遭遇算力攻击，想来这些矿霸不会坐视不管。
Among them, Jiangchael voted against the recent BCH Minerals Grant Scheme, stating that it would defend the interests of the BCH with personal capacity of 3,500 P (the full web capacity of the BCH before halving). Thus, if the BCH were attacked by arithmetic, it would not be expected that the miners would be left unattended.
数据来自：F2Pool，采集时间：4月8日20:00
除了有众所周知的“大腿”外，BCH 当前主流的客户端 ABC 中还有一项名为“rolling checkpoints”的设置，其作用是当一个区块获得超过 10 个确认便无法回滚，可在一定程度上防止双花攻击。
In addition to the well-known “legs”, the current mainstream BCH client ABC has a set-up called Rolling Checkpoints, which is designed to prevent double flower attacks to some extent when a block receives more than 10 confirmations.
双币减半对BTC有何影响？
What's the impact of the two-bit reduction on BTC?
从矿工转移的角度看，双币减半理论上将给 BTC 挖矿带来多大的竞争呢？
From the point of view of the miner's transfer, how much competition would the theory of halving the double dollar bring to BTC's mining?
假设 BCH 和 BSV 的一半算力都转向挖 BTC，我们可以看到，BTC 将增加 3% 的算力，这一增幅对于比特币来说倒也常见。但在这个挖矿利润微薄的当下，这一涨幅对于 BTC 矿工仍是个不小的负担。
Assuming that half of the BCH and BSV calculations turn to BTC, we can see that the BTC will increase its capacity by 3%, which is also common for bitcoins. But at this time of low mining profits, this increase will still be a significant burden for BTC miners.
另一方面，此次双币减半的价格走势，也将成为 BTC 减半行情的参照系之一。
On the other hand, this two-currency price movement will also be one of the reference points for the BTC initiative to halve.
“每一次减半行情的走势，都对未来的减半行情有着参考意义，因为你需要亲身经历 A、B、C 方案获取经验和参考数据。尤其是极其相似的事件正在形成极其相似的价格走势时。“OKEx 投研总监 K爷认为。
“The trend of reducing each one by half is indicative of the future by halving, because you need to experience the A, B, and C programs first-hand to obtain experience and reference data. Especially when very similar events are developing very similar price trends.
矿工捐款计划搁置，BCH发展慢如何解？
What about the slow development of the BCH?
除了价格和网络安全，判断公链的价值标尺，更要看开发进展与链上生态。
In addition to prices and network security, the value of the public chain is judged by the progress of development and the ecology of the chain.
在这方面，BCH 常被人们拿来与“胞兄弟”BSV 做比。
In this respect, the BCH is often compared to the BSV.
两者都有类似的大区块扩容路线和支付公链愿景，但在 2018 年底两者分离后，BSV 的链上应用及交易量很快超过了 BCH，因此“BCH 发展缓慢”的质疑声不绝于耳。
Both have similar visions of large block extension routes and public payment chains, but after the separation of the two at the end of 2018, the BSV's chain application and volume of transactions soon exceeded the BCH, so the challenge of “BCH slow development” is overwhelming.
下图为 BTC（黄线）、BCH（绿线）、BSV（红线）三者的日交易量，从图中可看出，在压力测试之外，BSV 的交易量已经压倒前面两者。
The following figure shows the daily turnover of BTC (Yellow Line), BCH (Green Line) and BSV (Red Line), from which it can be seen that BSV transactions have prevailed over both above and beyond the pressure tests.
当然，不少 BCH 支持者并不承认 BSV 的这种“领先”。
Of course, a lot of BCH supporters do not recognize this "leading" of BSV.
BCH 爱好者 BruceLee 曾在博客中吐槽，“像某些币（指 BSV）把天气之类的数据往区块链上保存从而产生大量 TX（链上交易）的行为，只能说是纯刷数据，就算产生再多 TX，那和杀手级应用也沾不上边。”
BCH Lover Bruce Lee, who used to spit in his blog, said that “the practice of saving weather data like some currency (meaning BSV) into the chain of blocks and producing a large amount of TX (chain transactions) can only be described as a pure brush of data, and even if more TX is produced, it will not be close to killer-grade applications.”
如果说 BSV 的生态应用不算实际应用的话，作为一条公链，BCH 可能更惨，因为其上的应用寥寥可数。
If the ecological application of BSV is not a practical application, the BCH may be worse as a public chain, as few applications are available.
究其原因，Odaily星球日报此前介绍过一个直观的问题，BCH 开发团队的募捐方式低效且不可持续。
For this reason, the Odaily Daily Planet has previously introduced an intuitive question about the inefficient and unsustainable manner in which the BCH development team is raising funds.
为避免开发断粮、进一步壮大生态，今年 1 月，江卓尔曾发博文公布了一项《BCH的基础设施融资计划》（下称“计划”），旨在通过矿工捐出区块奖励的方式为为开发团队持续筹措资金。
In order to avoid the loss of food and further ecological growth, in January of this year Jiangchael published a BCH Infrastructure Financing Plan (hereinafter referred to as “the Plan”), which aims to continuously fund development teams by donating block incentives from miners.
这一“计划”，因在实现方式上倾向于“几大矿池联合实施”、“算力投票”而被不少社区成员斥为“独裁”，最终，主要发起人之一江卓尔宣布作罢。
This “plan” was rejected by a number of community members as “authoritarian” because of the tendency in the way in which it was achieved to “co-executed by several major mining ponds” and “calculative voting”, and was eventually announced by one of the main initiators, Jiang Zhor.
但令人意想不到的是，2 月 19 日，在 ABC 团队发布新版客户端中，默认矿工只能投票支持“计划”。要想不进行投票，或者投 No，还必须具备一定的编程知识，自己去修改代码。
Surprisingly, on February 19, the ABC team released a new version of its client, defaulting that miners could only vote in favour of the Plan. To not vote, or vote No, they must have some programming knowledge to change the code themselves.
据 BCH 支持者“行走的翻译C”介绍，这一版本软件被社区称为“恶意软件”，随后，前 ABC 团队创始成员 freetrader 宣布上线不包含“计划”的新版客户端 BCH Node（BCHN），并逐渐获得支持。
According to BCH supporters'Walking Translation C ', this version of the software was referred to by the community as "harmful software", followed by a new version of BCH Node (BCHN), which was announced by Freetrade, a founding member of the former ABC team, and which was gradually gaining support.
与此同时，社区对主要开发团队 ABC 信任不足，社区分裂风险仍在。
At the same time, community trust in the main development team ABC is inadequate and the risk of community fragmentation remains.
“目前看来，只要没有恶意算力捣蛋投票支持那个‘计划’，那么基本不会被激活。”行走的翻译C 认为。
“For the time being, as long as there is no malice in calculating the vote in favour of the plan, it will hardly be activated.” The walking translator C argues.
从好的一面看，行走的翻译C 认为，在“计划”引起争议的同时，海外社区推出了很多替代性方案，诞生了新的全节点客户端 BCHN、新的融资工具 Flipstarter，让 BCH 生态更加地健壮、多元，开发更去中心化，长期看对 BCH 的发展仍属利好。
On the positive side, Walking Translator C argues that, at the same time that the Plan has been controversial, the overseas community has introduced a number of alternative programmes, with the birth of a new full-point client BCHN, a new financing tool, Flipstarter, making the BCH ecology stronger, more diverse, more central and, in the long run, beneficial to the development of BCH.
在捐赠计划之外，3 月 20 日，Tether 宣布将通过 SLP 协议在 BCH 上发行 USDT，这是继 BTC、ETH 等底层公链之后，USDT 选择的第 5 条公链，在一定程度上表明了这家圈内“印钞”银行对该社区的认可。
In addition to the donation plan, on March 20, Tether announced that USDT would be released on the BCH through the SLP agreement, which is the fifth public chain selected by the USDT after the bottom public chain of BTC, ETH and others, to some extent demonstrating the recognition of the community by the bank of “book printing” in this circle.
据 BruceLee 介绍，2019 年初上线的 SLP 协议（运行在 BCH 网络上的一个 token 协议）至今已发布 7530 个币种。据统计，SLP 上产生的 TX 占 BCH 总 TX 的币种已达 10% 以上。
According to BruceLee, the SLP protocol (a token protocol running on the BCH network) that came online at the beginning of 2019 has so far been published in 7530 currency. According to statistics, TX on SLP accounts for more than 10% of the total BCH TX currency.
在此之外，4 月初，General Protocols 的开发者宣布将推出基于 BCH 的衍生品平台 Anyhedge，有望成为 BCH 上的首个 DeFi 协议。4 月 5 日，混币方案 Cashfusion 也在社区中顺利募得 5.1 万美元 BCH，将帮助团队持续开发、为 BCH 提供专属的隐私交易方案。
In addition, in early April, the developers of General Protocols announced the launch of the BCH-based derivative platform Anyhedge, which is expected to be the first DeFi agreement on the BCH. On April 5, Cashfusion also successfully raised $51,000 BCH in the community, which will help the team to develop and provide exclusive privacy trading programs for BCH.
最近的一个月，我们的确看到不少重要进展，或许预示着 BCH 的生态应用正在实现从 0 到 1 的跨越。
In the last month, we have indeed seen a lot of important progress, perhaps signalling that the ecological applications of BCH are moving from & nbsp; 0 to 1.
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