Odaily重磅万字Web3研报：2023全景复盘，2024趋势展望

稳定币方面，截至 12 月 12 日，稳定币总市值达 1, 298 亿美元，占加密总市值的 8.0%?。从市场规模来看，目前 USDT（905 亿美元）、USDC（240?亿美元）、DAI（52.8 亿美元）、TUSD（26 亿美元）和 BUSD（14.7 亿美元）基本瓜分了稳定币市场的大部分份额。与去年的 Tether、USDC 和 BUSD 分庭抗礼相比，今年 USDC 和 BUSD 的市场份额都出现了较大滑坡。

xff0c; as at 12 December xff0c; total market value of stable currency amounts to $1,298 billion xff0c; or 8.0% of total encoded market value? xff0c; current USDTff08; $90.5 billion xff09; USDCxff08; $24.0 billion xff09; DAIff08; $5.28 billion xff09; TUSDxff08; $2.6 billion xff09; BUSDff08; $1.470 billion xff09; most of the market share of stable currency is split with last year's Chamber of Experts, USDC and BUSD.

在 2023 年 3 月份，USDC 的发行方 Circle 和硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank，简称 SVB）发生了一起重大事件。由于硅谷银行遭遇了流动性危机和客户资金挤兑，而 Circle 在该银行存放的 33 亿美元面临风险。这导致 Circle 的稳定币 USDC 价格出现波动，并脱离了锚定状态。Circle 与美国银行系统紧密相连，硅谷银行的破产事件严重影响了其信誉，进而导致 USDC 的流通量大幅减少。Circle 和其竞争对手 Tether 都将其稳定币的储备金（分别为 240?亿和 870?亿美元）投资于美国国债等资产以赚取收益，但 USDC 市场份额的下滑让 Circle 面临更严峻的 IPO 挑战。USDC 的市值因此大幅减少，从 1 月的 440?亿美元逐渐降低到了 11 月底的 245 亿美元，降幅约 44.32%?。

In March 2023, there was a major incident as Silicon Valley Bank was hit by a liquidity crisis and a client funds run-off xff0c; and Circle was exposed to a $3.3 billion deposit with the bank. This led to a volatility in the USDC price xff0c; and to a break-out from anchoring. Circle’s close link to the US banking system xff0c; the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank has seriously affected its credibility xff0c; this has led to a significant reduction in the circulation of USDC xff0c; as a result, Circle and its competitor, Teth, have reduced the market reserve of their stable currency xff08; about $2.4 billion and 870 million respectively; USxff09; investing in assets US$4 billion; and 4 billion 4 C4 C4 — a sharp reduction in market share of USC4; and a sharp reduction in market share of USC4 4 4 C4.

在 2 月，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）向稳定币公司 Paxos 发出 Wells 通知，预示可能对其提起诉讼，理由是 Paxos 发行并上市的 Binance USD（BUSD）被视为未注册的证券。同一天，纽约州金融服务部（NYDFS）指示 Paxos 停止铸造新的 BUSD。Paxos 宣布自 2 月 21 日起停止发行新的 BUSD 代币，但将继续支持产品，确保至少在 2024 年 2 月之前可赎回。CZ 认为 SEC 将 BUSD 视为未注册证券可能会对加密行业产生深远影响，并预计用户会逐渐转向其他稳定币。此外，还有猜测称，SEC 对 BUSD 的打击可能与其存币生息产品有关，或者与“证券”这一更广泛的类别相关。在那之后，BUSD 的市值出现了较大下降，从年初的 160?亿美元下降至如今的 16.9 亿美元左右。11 月，币安宣布将移除 BUSD 并将 BUSD 兑换为 FDUSD。

In February xff0c; US Securities and Exchange Commission xff08; SEC&xff09; Wells Notice xff0c to Paxos; presage of possible lawsuits against him xff0c; reason for Binance USD（ BUSD&xff09; considered unregistered securities. The same day xff0c; New York State Financial Services Department xff08; NYDFS xff09; Instructions to Paxos to stop the creation of new BUSD. Paxos announced that the issuance of the new BUSD aliases xff0c from February 21st; but will continue to support the product xff0c; ensure that the value of #xff0 is redeemed before at least February 2024; NYC now considers BUSD to have a far-reaching impact on the encryption industry US0x; #BXFX projected a gradual decline in other currencies; #Dff #0; and Tr.

与以上两者不同的是，USDT 的市值由于用户弃用其他稳定币转向 Tether 出现了较大增长，从年初的 660?亿美元逐渐上升至 11 月底的 905 亿美元，增长率为 37.12%?。同时，PayPal 发布的 PYUSD 和 Aave 的稳定币 GHO 等也在年内出现，让稳定币生态变得更加多样化。

The difference between the two is xff0c; the market value of the USDT has increased considerably xff0c as users have moved away from other stable currencies to Tether; from US$ 66 billion at the beginning of the year to US$ 90.5 billion xff0c at the end of November; a growth rate of 37.12%?

一级市场：融资总额超 74 亿美元，身处低谷望反弹

经 Odaily星球日报不完全统计，截至 11 月 25 日， 2023 年加密行业公开披露了 1, 023 笔投融资事件，同比下降 38.3%?，已公布总融资额约为 74.4 亿美元，同比下降 78.74%?。

xff0c; xff0c as of November 25; xff0c; 2023. The encryption industry publicly disclosed 1,023 investment financing events xff0c; 38.3 per cent decrease in comparison? xff0c; total funds announced amounting to approximately $74.4 billion xff0c; 78.74 per cent decrease in comparison?

2023?年?1?月-11?月融资笔数与金额

2023 年Web3一级市场融资：从数量上来看，月均近 100?例，整体趋于均衡但下降；从融资额角度，前 5 个月高于后 6 个月。

2023 Web3 Level 1 market finance xff1a; quantitatively xff0c; average monthly 100? xff0c; overall balanced but declining xff1b; financing level xff0c; first 5 months more than 6 months later.

纵观 2023 年一级市场融资项目，Odaily星球日报根据获投项目的业务类型、服务对象、商业模式等维度将披露融资的所有项目划进 5 大赛道——基础设施、应用、技术服务商、金融服务商和其他服务商，并进一步标示 DeFi、底层设施、GameFi、CeFi、工具、NFT 和 Layer 1 等细分板块。

Over the 2023 Level I Market Finance Project & #xff0c; Odaily Daily Planet Daily lists all projects that disclose financing according to the type of operation, client, business model, etc. of the project being invested into 5 major tracks - infrastructure, applications, technology service providers, financial service providers and other service providers & #xff0c; and further labels deFi, bottom facilities, GameFi, CeFi, tools, NFT and Layer 1.

上图可见， 2023 年的热门融资赛道落在应用，全年融资数量突破 500?起。这也预示着Web3基础设施发展放缓，行业亟待有大规模采用潜力的“胖应用”。

The figure above can be seen in xff0c; 2023, the popular financing track landed in application xff0c; the year-round financing reached 500? This also heralds a slowdown in infrastructure development at Web3 xff0c; the industry is in dire need of “fat applications” with potential for large scale adoption.

从细分板块融资数量来看，DeFi 版块凭借 187 笔融资，位居全年细分板块首位。其中服务于机构的交易平台以及基于高性能区块链的订单簿式 DEX 崭露头角。

From the breakdown of block financing xff0c; DeFi version with 187 financings xff0c; tops the year-round breakdown. The transaction platform for the institution and the purchase book DEX, based on the high-performance block chain, are the starting point.

Overall xff0c; strong > primary market financing in 2023 compared to last year xff0c; significant decline in volume and amount xff0c; secondary markets are at the bear market stage. But the valley has formed xff0c; it may rebound next year. The seed plant xff0c; it will also be able to see the trees.

比特币：生态自下而上、资金由外向内的两股力量

1 月 30?日，由 Casey Rodarmor 创建的“Ordinals”协议正式在比特币主网上启动，开辟了 2023 年波澜壮阔的比特币生态革新浪潮的航道。

January 30? #xff0c; the “Ordinals” protocol, created by Casey Rodarmor, officially launched xff0c on the main Bitcoin web site; opened the course of a huge wave of eco-renovation in Bitcoin in 2023.

最初，Ordinals 以 NFT 项目为主，产生了 sub10K 的概念（序号前一万的铭文），此时的项目可谓千奇百怪，基本都为社区成员自行创造。

Initially xff0c; Ordinals xff0c xffc xff0c

随后，Yuga Labs 作为早期正规军发布了 TwelveFold 系列，“Yuga Labs 为 TwelveFold 系列探索了时间、数学和可变性之间的关系”。与 BAYC 等 PFP 不同，构成 TwelveFold 系列的作品由 Yuga Labs 的艺术团队使用 3D 建模、算法构造和高端渲染工具在内部制作，以致敬目前手工完成的序号铭文。

Subsequently, xff0c; Yuga Labs, as an early regular army, published the TwelveFold series & #xff0c; “Yuga Labs explored the relationship between time, mathematics and variability for the TwelveFold series.” Different from PFP xff0c with BAYC and others; the TwelveFold series was produced internally by the 3D modelling, algorithmic construction and high-end rendering tools of Yuga Labs; and xff0c was produced by the art team of Yuga Labs to pay tribute to the current manual completion of the serial letters.

而成系列的比特币 NFT 最初以搬运其他链的 NFT 系列为主，例如 Ordinal Punks 和 Bitcoin Punks 就是采用了以太坊 CryptoPunks 的图片。这个时代的 NFT 也非常质朴，Bitcoin Punks 的有效性检查是通过开发团队进行图片对比和哈希是否首发一一查验所得出的。

The series of bitcoin NFTs initially focused on the NFT series that moved other chains xff0c; for example, Ordinal Punks and Bitcoin Punks used images of the Etherm CryptoPunks. The NFT of this era was also very stylish xff0c; Bitcoin Punks was checked for validity by developing teams to compare pictures and whether Hasi first sent a check.

此时，浪成于微澜之间，随后，BRC-20?狂潮来袭。

At this point #xff0c; #xff0c; then and #xff0c; BRC-20? The tide hits.

SEC's spot ETF approval is expected to take place in the first quarter of > xff0c; or sometime in the next 12 months.

作为加密生态最重要的一支力量，以太坊在 2023 年表现得却并不尽如人意。特别是完成了 Shapella 升级（Shanghai+Capella）后坎昆升级（Cancun）一直推迟，技术面上都没有重大进展，消息面也缺乏炒作热点，币价一直萎靡，直到年底才跟随大盘开始反弹，但一直弱于比特币。

One of the most important forces of encryption ecology xff0c; Etheria did not perform well in 2023. In particular, the Shapella upgrade xff08; Shanghai+ Capella） the post-Cancun upgrade xff08; Cancun） consistently delayed xff0c; there was no significant progress on the technical side xff0c; there was a lack of flashpoint xff0c; currency prices had been weak xff0c; followed the disk only to the end of the year xff0c; and remained weak in bitcoin.

1、数据：价格萎靡，ETH/BTC 汇率不断走低

整个 2023 年，ETH 的价格表现都只能用“平淡”两个字形容，既没有 2021 年从 750?美元飙涨至 4, 860?美元的豪迈，也没有 2022 年从巅峰下行跌破 900?美元的惊悚。

The whole 2023 xff0c; ETH price performance can only be described in the word xff0c; neither did the dollar soar from 750 to 4,860 dollars in 2021; nor did the #xff0c; nor did the treacherous drop of $900 from the top in 2022.

2023 年年初，ETH 从 1, 200?美元发力，跟随大盘开始上行，但始终在 1, 500?美元左右上下浮动。似乎外界的利好和利空，都对它产生不了太大地影响。直到 4 月份完成上海升级，ETH 价格才短时冲破 2, 000?美元，最高上行至 2, 150?美元左右，但后继无力，慢慢又跌了回去，始终在 2, 000?美元下方震荡。直到年底这轮牛市信号得到确认，ETH 似乎才似乎“下定决心”，再入陆地神仙境界，重回 2, 000?美元，最高冲至 2, 400?美元，全年累计涨幅 83%?。

At the beginning of the year 2023 xff0c; ETH from 1,200? US$ xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; x500? US$; but still floating around. There seems to be no significant impact on it until the Shanghai upgrade was completed in April. xff0c; ETH prices fell short by 2,000? US$ xff0c; xff0c up to 2,150?; xff0c; followed by inability ff0c; slowly falling back x ff0c; still at $2,000? below $2,000. $0; until the end of the year, the cattle market signal was confirmed xff0c; ETH prices did not appear to be “down determined” xff0c; xff0c; x 0 4

ETH?价格走势

ETH 的“平淡”，不止表现在价格上，在市值占比方面同样稳健。今年整整一年，ETH 的市值占比始终维持在 17%?-18%?左右，同期的 BTC 市值则不断攀升并于年底超过 50%?。二者的差异，通过 ETH/BTC 汇率体现更为明显，汇率从年初的?0.072 一路下行，并于今年 12 月一度跌破?0.05 ，目前一直维持在?0.052 左右。虽然将视角放到更大的级别，可以看到 ETH/BTC 汇率已从底部走出，但能否“站稳”并继续上涨仍然值得观望。

ETH’s “silence” & #xff0c; more than price & #xff0c; equally robust in market value ratios. This year whole year & #xff0c; ETH’s market value has always been at 17%?-18%? & #xff0c; BTC’s market value has been rising over the same period and has exceeded 50% by the end of the year?

ETH/BTC?汇率走势，周线图

以太坊 DeFi 总锁仓量（TVL）在今年涨幅基本与价格同步，从年初的 34 亿美元到年末 64 亿美元，涨幅不到 100%?。从数据面看，由于 2023 年行业整体寒冬，基于以太坊的 DEX、借贷等板块普遍趋冷，让以太坊引以为傲的 DeFi 生态，涨幅不再强劲。

DeFi's total lockdown & #xff08; TVL） this year's increase is basically synchronized with price & #xff0c; from $3.4 billion at the beginning of the year to $6.4 billion at the end of the year & #xff0c; less than 100%?

另外一个注意的是，以太坊 LSD（流动性质押衍生品）板块在今年一季度成为市场热点，备受追捧。背后的原因是：随着以太坊主网从 POW 到 POS 的转变，用户可以质押 32 个 ETH 来作为质押节点，由于 ETH 质押给用户带来资产流动性的减少，随之而来的是对质押品流动性需求的旺盛，于是 LSD 服务应运而生。

Another note is xff0c; SD（ mobile derivatives xff09; the plate became a market hot spot xff0c; it was well received in the first quarter of this year. The reason behind this is xff1a; xff0c with the transformation of the Internet from Pow to POS; the user can pledge 32 ETHs as pledge nodes xff0c; xff0c due to the reduction of asset mobility due to the ETH pledge to the user xff0c; followed by a strong demand for the fluidity of the pledge xff0c; and LSD services to be delivered.

不过，在上海升级后，ETH 提款开放，LSD 板块很快迎来降温，除了头部几个项目，其他后进者基本很难再次获得市场份额。截至目前，流动性质押解决方案商 Lido 一骑绝尘，在诸多质押商中占比 31.8%?，位列第 1 ，而 Coinbase 以 8.84%?的占比名列第二，Stakefish 以 7.3%?的占比位居第三。

However, xff0c; after upgrade in Shanghai xff0c; xff0c; xhf0c; LSD plates quickly cooled xff0c; other latecomers rarely regained market share except for several headlines xff0c; so far xff0c; mobile grantor Lido xff0c; 31.8%?xff0c; number 1 & #xff0c; and Coinbase at 8.84%? Second xff0c; Stakefish at 7.3%?

2、技术：两大升级，拉满期待

技术层面，今年以太坊最大的两件事都与升级有关：Shapella 升级以及坎昆升级。

At the technical level #xff0c; two of the biggest things in Ethio this year are related to upgrading #xff1a; the Sharpella upgrade; and the Cancún upgrade.

4 月 12 日，在“合并”升级 7 个月后，以太坊同时进行上海升级与 Capella 升级，合称“Shapella 升级”。最终的改变是，升级后使初始存款时没有提供提款凭证的质押者有了提供凭证的能力，从而实现提款。将质押提现功能带到了执行层，使质押者能够将他们从 2020?年以来锁定的近 2, 000?万枚 ETH 从信标链提现到执行层，实现可选择的全额提现或者质押收益提现，释放了质押代币的流动性。

April 12 & #xff0c; 7 months after the “combined” upgrade & #xff0c; parallel Shanghai upgrade with Capella upgrade & #xff0c; combined “Shapella upgrade”. The final change was ， the upgrade enabled the pledgeer who did not provide proof of withdrawal at the time of the initial deposit to provide documentation & #xff0c; thereby realizing withdrawals. The pledge function was brought to the enforcement level & #xff0c; enabling the pledgeer to lock them in close to 2,000? million ETHs from the beacon chain to the executive level #xff0c; realizing the option to deliver the full cash or pledge proceeds #xff0c; and releasing the liquidity of the pledge currency.

上海升级虽然不能降低 Gas 费，但实施的 EIP-3651 ，EIP-3855 和 EIP-3869 减少了以太坊开发人员和区块创建者的 Gas 费用。更重要的是，这是以太坊从工作量证明（PoW）向权益证明（PoS）转型的最后一个重要步骤。

Shanghai upgrades cannot reduce Gas fees & #xff0c; but the implementation of EIP-3651 & #xff0c; EIP-3855 and EIP-3869 has reduced the cost of Gas for Etherm developers and block creators. More importantly, xff0c; this is Ether’s proof of workload from xff08; PoW） proof of equity xff08; PoS） and the last important step of the transition.

上海升级实施完成后，虽然有部分早期质押者进行了提款操作，但随后两周形势逆转，质押的净流入开始增加，质押量和验证者数量呈现出加速上升的趋势。

Upon completion of the Shanghai upgrade, xff0c; although some of the early pledgeers carried out withdrawal operations xff0c; the situation reversed in the following two weeks xff0c; the net influx of pledges began to increase xff0c; and the number of pledges and certifications showed an accelerated upward trend.

另外一个备受期待的升级是坎昆升级 Dencun（Dencun+Cancun），这也是以太坊另一个里程碑式升级，其中坎昆（Cancun）升级侧重于以太坊执行层（Execution Layer），Deneb 升级侧重于共识层（Consensus Layer）。

Another much-awaited upgrade is the Cancún upgrade, Dencun（ Dencun+ Cancun） & #xff0c; this is another milestone upgrade in the Pacific & #xff0c; Cancún #xff08; Cancun #xff09; the upgrade focuses on the Ether Implementation Level & #xff08; Exéculation Layer） #xff0c; Deneb upgrade focuses on the Consensus Layer #xff08; Consensus Layer #xff09;

坎昆升级将为以太坊网络带来实质性好处，包括：增强可扩展性、降低 Gas fee、加强安全性、高效数据存储、增强跨链连接等。升级完成后，有望刺激以太坊L1本身及L2生态应用的大爆发，以及跨链桥、存储、GameFi 等板块。

The Cancún upgrade will bring substantial benefits to the ETA network xff0c; including xff1a; enhancing scalability, reducing Gasfe, enhancing security, efficient data storage, and enhancing cross-chain connections. After the upgrade is completed xff0c; it is expected that the ETA L1 itself and the L2 eco-applications xff0c; and cross-linkage bridges, storage, GameFi, etc.

本来原定于 11 月进行的坎昆升级，还是延续了以太坊一贯的调性，不断推迟。目前，在以太坊核心开发者会议上，官方公开表示坎昆升级有可能延期至 2024 年初。在明年比特币减半以及现货 ETF 持续推动等多重因素下，以太坊届时如果完成升级，或许能获得更大的利好回报。

The Cancún upgrade, originally scheduled for November, xff0c; or the continuation of the Etherkom’s consistent tone xff0c; and its constant delay. xff0c; xff0c; xff0c at the Etheraya Core Developmenters Conference; official public indications that the Cancún upgrade might be extended until early 2024. Under multiple factors such as halving bitcoin next year and the continued push of the spot ETF xff0c; xfff0c if the Etherkom were to complete the upgrade at that time; and perhaps even better returns.

3、其他层面：V神开始焦虑，现货 ETF 等待落地

今年的以太坊，似乎真正的在“修炼内功”，将过去的成就充分吸收消化。与此同时，以太坊也没有停下对新技术的探寻。

This year's Etheria & #xff0c; it seems to be really “refining” & #xff0c; absorbing the achievements of the past fully. At the same time, #xff0c; and Ether has not stopped looking for new technologies.

比如，在 Odaily 今年以来收录的 Vitalik 的 30?条个人观点表达中，有 8 条与钱包，尤其是账户抽象钱包有关，甚至在今年中下旬，还引发了账户抽象钱包与 EOA 钱包到底谁更优秀的行业论战。相较于 EOA 钱包，账户抽象固然具有优势。但“账户抽象升级可以吸引数十亿人使用以太坊”这一 Vitalik 在以太坊社区会议中的表态，或许才是 V 神对其情有独钟的原因。

For example, xff0c; 30 in Vitalik, which Odaily has recorded since this year? xff0c; 8 in personal views & xff0c; 8 in wallet xff0c; especially in the account's abstract wallet xff0c; even in the middle of this year xff0c; and also triggering the account's abstract wallet to argue with who is better in industry than the EOA wallet xff0c; account abstraction has its advantages. But “account abstract upgrades can attract billions of people to use the far-reaching version of Vitalik's expression xff0c in the community meeting in Etheria; perhaps it is the reason why V. God has a unique interest in his situation.

V 神也在焦虑。这种焦虑是多方面，一是近期比特币生态的崛起，各种共识协议的诞生，让比特币变得更快，部署应用更低成本，同时也开始瓜分市场对以太坊的注意力；再者，以 Aptos、Sui、Ton 等为代表的高性能新公链，正在走向成熟，还有一些 Layer 2 也分走了原本属于以太坊的用户与资金。

V. God is also anxious. This anxiety is xff0c; the recent rise of the Bitcoin ecology xff0c; the emergence of consensus agreements xff0c; making bitcoin faster xff0c; deploying applications lower xff0c; also starting to divide the market's attention to the Ether xff1b; xff0c; xff0c; a new high-performance public chain, represented by Aptos, Sui, Ton, etc. xff0c; moving towards maturity #xff0c; and some Layer 2 have also separated users and funds that belong to Ethako.

今年年底，另外一个重磅消息是以太坊现货 ETF 也即将问世。伴随着比特币现货 ETF 的申请，贝莱德以及 ARK 等公司也开始申请以太坊现货 ETF。一旦前者获批，以太坊现货 ETF 问世的可能性将大大增加，最终带来更多的增量资金入场，或许能够让以太坊价格一飞冲天。

At the end of this year xff0c; another heavy load of news is that the ETF is available in the Taiku and will soon be available. With the application of the ETF in Bitcoin & #xff0c; Belet and ARK companies have also started applying for ETA spot ETF. Once the former has been approved xff0c; the possibility that ETF will be available will increase significantly xff0c; eventually, more money will be available xff0c; and perhaps it will allow the cost of the ETF to leapfrog.

作为一个拥有 Web3 行业最完备体系的生态，同时最为向传统世界展现 Web3 产品形态的代表，经历一年厚积的以太坊，等到现实世界完全接纳它的那一天，会迎来真正地薄发。同时，它也将以一个新的姿态去面对自己的老对手和新挑战。

As an ecological #xff0c with the most well-developed system in the Web3 industry; as well as as as a representative of the traditional world showing the form of the web3 product & #xff0c; as a year-long Ether & #xff0c; as a day when the real world fully embraces it #xff0c; will be truly thin. At the same time #xff0c; it will also face its old rivals and new challenges with a new posture.

2023 年，Layer 2 已逐渐成为了执行层扩容的主流选择。?

2023 xff0c; Layer 2 has gradually become the mainstream option for expansion of the enforcement layer?

在过去的一年里，我们已看到了一批 Layer 2 在数据层面逐渐实现了对老牌 Layer 1 的赶超，也看到了 Coinbase、ConsenSys 等中心化机构下场试水 Layer 2 ，甚至还看到了 Celo 等 Layer 1 开始朝着 Layer 2 转型。

Over the past year xff0c; we've seen a group of Layer 2 gradually catching up to the old Layer 1 at the data level xff0c; we've seen the next test for centralised institutions such as Coinbase, ConsenSys, Layer 2 & #xff0c; and even we've seen Celo et al. Layer 1 start a transition to Layer 2.

Odaily星球日报注：主流 Layer 1/Layer 2 生态 TVL 对比状况，Arbitrum 已跻身前五， Optimism、Base 均位列前十

细看 Layer 2 赛道内部，凭借着先发优势，Optimismtic-Rollup 系的两大代表性项目 Arbitrum 和 Optimism 依旧在 TVL 方面领跑赛道，不过二者在发展策略上却已呈现出了鲜明差异。

Look closely inside the Lyer 2 track & #xff0c; based on a priori advantage & #xff0c; two major representative projects of the Optimismtic-Rollup system Arbitrum and Optimism continue to lead the track & #xff0c in TVL; however, there is a marked difference in development strategies.

Odaily星球日报注：十大主流 Layer 2 TVL 状况年内变化对比，Arbitrum 和 Optimism 依旧领跑，ZK 系于下半年左右开始逐步扩大份额

Arbitrum 于今年 3 月推出了治理代币 ARB，并随即启动了 Layer 2 乃内整个 Crypto 行业年内最大的一场空投活动。如今，Arbitrum 正在通过频繁的 ARB 激励继续刺激主链的活跃状况；同时亦在通过 Arbitrum Orbit 探索纵向扩容的可能性；此外，Arbitrum 还在积极构建新的开发环境 Stylus，试图通过对更多编程语言的支持来实现对 EVM 的扩容。

Arbitrum launched the Governance Currency ARB， in March of this year; and immediately launched Layer 2 as the largest airdrop in the entire Crypto industry year. Today & #xff0c; Arbitrum is continuing to stimulate the dynamics of the main chain through frequent ARB incentives & #xff1b; also exploring the possibility of vertical expansion through Arbitrum Orbit xff1b; xff0c; Arbitrum is also actively building a new development environment; trying to expand EVM by supporting more programming languages.

Optimism 方面则是在基于 OP Stack 构架继续推进其横向扩张，并于年内“喜提”了 Base、Zora 等强援的支持。8 月，Optimism 与 Base 签署了一项治理及收入共享协议，这也掀开了未来“超级链”生态协同运作的面纱?——?基于 Law of Chain. 框架让 OP 实现对整个生态的治理效用；主链 Optimism 通过分发 OP 来扩张生态并推进去中心化；Base 等生态链则将利用收入持续性地回馈主链。

Optimism, for its part, continues its horizontal expansion & #xff0c, based on the OP Stack framework; and during the year, “Thesis” is supported by powerful aid such as Base and Zora. August & #xff0c; Optim and Base signed a governance and income-sharing agreement & #xff0c; this also opens up the veil of future “superlink” eco-collaborative operations??? Based on the Law of Chain. framework allows OP to govern the whole ecology #xff1b; the main chain Optimism, by distributing OP, expands the ecology and promotes centralization #xff1b; and eco-chains such as Base will use income to feed back into the chain on a sustainable basis.

值得一提的还有 Blast，这个暂时仅有智能合约但号称将构建 Optimismtic-Rollup 的自动生息型 Layer 2 在年末突然搅乱了整个 Layer 2 市场，并靠着创始人铁山 CX 色彩极浓的营销大法成功吸引了数亿美元的真金白银，成为了 TVL 仅次于 Arbitrum 和 Optimism 的第三大“Layer 2 ”。

Also worth mentioning is Blast， this temporary only smart contract but known as the Optimismtic-Rollup Auto-Layer 2 suddenly disrupted the whole Layer 2 market & #xff0c at the end of the year; and succeeded in attracting hundreds of millions of dollars of real silver #xff0c, after Arbitrum and Optim, by the very colourful marketing of the founder Iron Mountain CX.

ZK-Rollup 方面，传说中的 zkEVM 已不再只是存在于叙事中的幻影。zkSync Era、Polygon-zkEVM、Linea、Scroll 今年相继上线主网并实现了一定的生态规模，Starknet 也已完成了“量子跃迁”升级，大幅提高了网络执行效率。

xff0c in ZK-Rollup; kEVM in the legend is no longer just an illusion in narratives. Sync Era, Polygon-zkEVM, Linea, Scroll has been connected to the main network and has achieved a certain ecological scale xff0c; Starknet has also completed a #xff0c upgrade; significantly improved network implementation.

如今，这几大网络已成为了空投猎手们的主要战场，无数羊毛党和机器人正在夜以继日地积累交互数据，试图从暂时仍未确定的未来空投中分一杯羹。

Now xff0c; these major networks have become the main battleground of the air-throwers xff0c; countless wool parties and robots are building up interactive data xff0c night and day; and trying to take a piece of future airdrops that are still uncertain.

2023 年关于 Layer 2 的另一个焦点议题是，Celestia、Eigenlayer 等项目的发展推动了关于模块化的讨论，而随着部分 Rollup 转而采用第三方网络而非以太坊作为数据可用层（DA），究竟什么才算是“纯粹”的 Layer 2 ?随即引发了市场的激烈讨论。

Another topic of focus on Layer 2 in 2023 was the development of projects & #xff0c; Celestia, Eigenlayer, etc., which gave impetus to the discussion on modularization & #xff0c; , as part of Rollup moved to a third-party network instead of a data-availability layer & #xff08; DA& #xff09; #xff0c; and what was “pure” Layer 2?

对此，Vitalik 近期的文章似乎颇有指向性，先是对各类型的 Layer 2 进行了再定义，随后又提议市场探索 ZK+Plasma 的潜在可行性，明里暗里似乎都在刻意引导市场远离第三方 DA 方案。

The recent articles by Vitalik appear to be very pointer & #xff0c; the types of Layer 2 are then redefined & #xff0c; the market is then proposed to explore ZK& #43; the potential feasibility of Plasma & #xff0c; and it seems to be deliberately leading the market away from the third party's DA program in the open and dark.

回看整个 2023 年，比较遗憾的一件事是酝酿了近一年之久的坎昆升级最终遭遇了延迟，不过这也顺势成为了我们对于 2024 年 Layer 2 赛道发展的最大期待。

Looking back at the whole 2023 & #xff0c; the more regrettable thing is that the Cancún upgrade, which was conceived for almost a year, ended up with a delay & #xff0c; but this is also our biggest expectation for the development of the Lyer 2 track in 2024.

展望来年，坎昆升级预计推动 Layer 2 实现大规模的降费及增速，这或许将推动 Layer 2 迎来新一轮的增长高峰。

Looking ahead to #xff0c in the coming year; the Cancún upgrade is expected to drive Layer 2 to achieve large-scale fall and increase #xff0c; this will probably boost Layer 2 to a new peak in growth.

此外，来年关于 Layer 2 本身的去中心化进程也值得期待，这既包括了 ZK-Rollup 是否会普遍推出代币并完善治理系统，也包括了去中心化定序器（sequencer）的开发及落地进程。

In addition, xff0c; the process of decentralisation of Layer 2 itself in the coming year is also worth looking forward to xff0c; this includes the process of development and landing of ZK-Rollup as well as the widespread introduction of tokens and the improvement of the governance system xff0c; and the process of decentralisation sequencer xff08; sequencer） and the process of development and landing.

潮涌将至， 2024 年会是属于 Layer 2 的年份吗？我们将抱着偏积极的态度一起去见证。

The tide will reach xff0c; 2024 Annual Conference will be the year of Layer 2 xff1f; we will go along with a positive attitude.

随着 Layer 2 的渐趋完善，当下市场上已经有多款 Layer 2 百舸争流。DeFiLlama 数据显示，目前在 TVL 前 10?大链之中，Layer 2 已跻身 3 席，而未来 Layer 2 或许仍能挤占更多 Layer 1 的位置。

As Layer 2 is improving & #xff0c; there are already a lot of Lyer 2 hundreds in the current market. DeFiLlama data show & #xff0c; now in the 10? chain before TVL & #xff0c; Layer 2 is already in 3 seats & #xff0c; and in the future Lyer 2 may still be in a much larger position of Layer 1.

而在这一背景之下，往日种种高光的“以太坊杀手”们，它们过得怎么样了？

And in this context #xff0c; the luminous Ether Killers of the past & #xff0c; how are they doing #xff1f;

在过去的一年里，大多数新兴 Layer 1 早已与自己的高光时刻渐行渐远。?但这并不代表着 Layer 1 市场的沉寂。目前来看，昔日的“新兴”Layer 1 仍然在过去的一年了出现了众多的变化和创新。

In the past year, xff0c; most of the emerging Layer 1 has moved away from its own high light. But this does not mean that the market in Layer 1 is silent. Now look at xff0c; the old “new” Layer 1 is still a year of change and innovation.

粗看 Layer 1 赛道，最值得关注的事件莫过于 Solana 的异军突起。在经历 FTX 崩溃事件之后，Solana 虽然经历了长时间的沉寂，但仍然在废墟中稳健重建着。

A rough look at Lyer 1 track & #xff0c; none of the most noteworthy events is the

年初，Solana 的开局状况并不优秀。2 月，Solana 网络刚刚经历了一次分叉事件。该事件始于网络上的一个节点发生故障。该故障导致“分叉”，实质上创建了两个独立的 Solana 区块链版本。结果，网络中的节点无法达成一致，导致共识失败。在本次重大故障之下，Solana 网络的每秒处理能力一度跌至不足 100?笔交易。

The beginning of the year xff0c; Solana was not very good. February xff0c; Solana network has just experienced a split-off event. The event began with a malfunction at a node on the network. The failure led to the creation of two separate version of the Solana block chain. Results xff0c; nodes in the network could not be agreed xff0c; leading to a failure of consensus.

网络故障持续了几个小时，对用户和开发人员造成了重大干扰。尽管开发人员能够迅速识别和解决问题，但该事件仍产生了负面影响。停机事件发生后，恐慌情绪引发了人们对该平台可扩展性和可靠性的质疑。社区的信心和信任受到了考验，该事件也一度让 SOL 代币的价格大幅下跌。

Network failures lasted several hours xff0c; caused major disruption to users and developers. Although developers were able to quickly identify and solve problems xff0c; the incident had a negative impact. After the shutdown, xff0c; panic raised questions about the platform’s scalability and reliability. Community confidence and trust were tested xff0c; the event also caused the price of SOL tokens to fall sharply.

而自此以后，Solana 基金会和开发人员一直在加倍努力改善网络的稳定性和韧性。直至今年Q4 Solana 网络迎来了大幅回暖，并呈现了强劲的增长态势。

Since then, #xff0c; the Solara Foundation and developers have redoubled their efforts to improve the stability and resilience of the network. Until this year, the Q4 Solana network received a significant turn-back & #xff0c; and there was strong growth.

以 TVL 数据为例，DeFiLlama 数据显示，在 2023 年前三季度，Solana TVL 表现一直较为稳定，在 3 亿美元上下徘徊。但在进入Q4之后，Solana 的 TVL 迅猛增长，目前已突破 8 亿美元，比本轮上涨之前增加约 200%?。

Take TVL data as an example & #xff0c; DeFiLlama data & #xff0c; in the first three quarters of 2023 & #xff0c; Solana TVL performance has been stable & #xff0c; hovering over $300 million. But after entering Q4 & #xff0c; Solana's TVL rapid growth & #xff0c; now breaking by $800 million xff0c; about 200% more than before the current wheel rises?

Solana 的 DEX 交易量也快速上扬。而在 12 月中旬，周交易量更是创下历史新高，突破 37 亿美元。

Solana’s DEX volume has also risen rapidly. In mid-December & #xff0c; weekly transactions are at an all-time high & #xff0c; breakthroughs of $3.7 billion.

在加密市场，取得一时的涨幅并不困难，大多代币都曾拥有过自己的高光时刻。而 Solana 的独特性在于，这一项目居然可以“二次”回潮。这对于加密项目来说，实属罕见。

In the encryption market & #xff0c; it is not difficult to get a one-time increase & #xff0c; most of the tokens have had their own high-light moments. The uniqueness of Solana is that & #xff0c; the project can actually go back twice. This is rare for encryption projects & #xff0c.

在市场上零零散散的非 EVM 网络之中，“Move 系双雄”也是本年度盛极一时的新生公链。

In a fragmented non-EVM network on the market & #xff0c; "Move" is a new public chain at the peak of the year.

4 月，Aptos 宣布推出委托质押功能，支持用户将质押权委托给受信任的网络验证器，并作为个人获得奖励。

April xff0c; Aptos announced the introduction of a trust pledge function xff0c; supported users in entrusting pledge rights to trusted network authenticator xff0c; and received awards as individuals.

5 月，Sui 主网上线。尽管落后于已在去年上线的 Aptos，但 Sui 的上线也取得了不错的成果。在 Layer 2 已经逐渐成为市场的焦点，Layer 1 叙事渐弱的今天，这两个被大量资本寄予厚望的 Move 系公链究竟有何特殊之处？

May xff0c; Sui main web line. Although behind Aptos，, which was already on the line last year, Sui has also achieved good results. In Layer 2, the market has gradually become the focus xff0c; Layer 1 narrative today xff0c; and what is so special about these two public chains of Move, which have been placed on a huge capital; xff1f;

回想起“双雄”创立的故事，还要从当年的 Facebook 说起。作为社交巨头，Facebook 一度有意进军加密领域，他们研发了颇具独创性的 Diem 区块链。但随着在监管上的节节败退，Diem 最终并未取得预期的结果。Diem 开发者意识到，要想不在被监管掣肘，必须要从原领域脱离，因此一些更贴近加密“原生”的网络——Sui 和 Aptos 就这样诞生了。

Recall the story created by the two males & #xff0c; and start with the Facebook page of the year. As social giants & #xff0c; Facebook, once intent on marching into the encryption field & #xff0c; they have developed a rather original Diem block chain. But with the loss of control & #xff0c; Diem eventually did not achieve the desired results. Diem developers realized & #xff0c; xff0c; had to move away from the original field & #xff0c; so some of the networks that were closer to encryption the “original” — Sui and Aptos — were born.

而由于这两条网络或多或少都与 Facebook 的原 Diem 有一定关联，因此他们都继承了 Move 语言作为其智能合约语言。

And because both networks are more or less connected to Facebook’s original Diam xff0c; they both inherit the Move language as their intellectual contract language.

Move 与 Solidity 存在很大的不同，在这里我们不做优劣判断，但巨大的差异让 Sui 和 Aptos 成为了市场中颇具特色的一组相似产品。

Move is very different from Solidity xff0c; here we don't make good judgements xff0c; but the big difference makes Sui and Aptos a special group of similar products in the market.

DeFiLlama 数据显示，Sui 目前 TVL 已达约 1.5 亿美元，而 Aptos 则为约 7, 800?万美元。链上浏览器显示，Sui 网络当前总账户数超过 911 万，Aptos 网络当前总账户数则超过 990?万。

DeFiLlama data show that xff0c; Sui currently TVL has about $150 million xff0c; Aptos is about $78 million. The chain browser shows xff0c; Sui currently has a total account of more than 9.11 million xff0c; Aptos currently has a total account of more than 9.9 million.

总体而言，Sui 区块链在 2023 年取得了良好的开端。该平台在技术和生态系统方面都取得了进展，并获得了投资者和开发者的支持。

Overall xff0c; Sui block chains made a good start in 2023. The platform has made progress in both technology and ecosystems xff0c; and it has the support of investors and developers.

此外，其他一些“古早”Layer 1 也表现亮眼。

and #xff0c; some other "old-time" Layer 1 also has a bright eye.

The gravitational power of is too strong xff0c; to the extent that other public chains or active, or passive, are affected by the Etheria ecology. this November xff0c; EVM Layer 1 Celo has taken an impressive initiative. The main developer of the block chain, cLabs, published the topic “Selecting the L2 Barracking Framework” in its forum xff0c; invited communities to provide feedback and participate in discussions.

Celo 正试图对自身进行重新定位。该网络试图在继承旧有资产的同时，采用成熟的堆栈开发一个 Layer 2 网络，并对生态进行迁移。在计划的框架中，将优先处理包括“简单迁移、最短停机时间、保持低 gas 费用、以太坊兼容性”。

Celo is trying to reposition itself. The network is trying to inherit old assets while xff0c; develop a Layer 2 network xff0c using mature stacks; and migrate ecology. In the framework of the plan xff0c; priority will be given to include “simple migration, minimum downtime, low gas costs, compatibility with the tatais”.

这也意味着，当迁移完成，在 Layer 1 世界参与竞争的网络又减少了一条，而用户获得的是一条新的 Layer 2 。

This also means xff0c; xff0c when the migration is completed; xff0c; xff0c when the number of competing networks worldwide in Layer 1 is reduced; and a new Layer 2 is obtained by the user.

通过 Celo 品牌生态位的改变我们不难预测，或许越来越多的 Layer 1 项目将迎来生命的倒计时。对于更多的小众网络来说，要么被以太坊所吞没，要么走向彻底的“特立独行”——就像 Solana、Aptos、Sui 那样。

By changing the eco-position of the Celo brand, we can easily predict #xff0c; perhaps more and more Layer 1 projects will come to the countdown of life. For more small networks & #xff0c; either they will be swallowed up by the talisman & #xff0c; or they will move towards a complete “stand-alone” — just like Solana, Aptos, Sui.

类以太坊的 Layer 1 ，其生存空间已经愈发狭小了。

Layer 1 & #xff0c of the Taiwan class; its survival space is becoming smaller.

既然如此，那昔日所涌现的一大批高效率、低 gas、EVM 兼容的“以太坊杀手”又发展如何呢？

If so, how about a large, efficient, low-gas, EVM-compatible “Etheria Killers” that emerged in the past? #xff0c;

以 Fantom 为例，Fantom 在上一轮牛市之时背靠背 AC 而一度大放异彩。Fantom 采用了 Multichain 作为生态的主要跨链桥。今年 7 月，受? Multichain 事件的影响，Fantom 陷入了危险境地。约 1.18 亿美元资产从 Multichain Fantom 桥接合约中被转移，Fantom 之上由 Multichain 桥接合约发行的稳定币出现了大幅脱锚。

In the case of Fantom & #xff0c; Fantom turned his back on AC at the last round of cattle. Fantom used Multichin as the main ecological cross-linkage bridge. This July & #xff0c; was affected by? Multichain & #xff0c; Fantom is in danger. Approximately $118 million of assets were transferred from the Multichin Fantom bridge connection contract & #xff0c; Fantom’s stable currency issued by the Multichin bridge connection contract has been substantially broke off.

这次事件也为 Fantom 带来了沉重的打击，TVL 一蹶不振，至今尚难以恢复。

The incident also took a heavy toll on Fantom & #xff0c; TVL & #xff0c; it is still difficult to recover.

而另一个“以太坊杀手” Avalanche 的命运却颇为不同。尽管处于熊市，但今年以来，Avalanche 网络的 TVL 并未明显下降。有趣的是，在今年年底，AVAX 代币强势上涨，TVL 也随之明显上扬。

The fate of Avalanche is quite different from the fate of the other Avalanche, who, despite being in the bear market xff0c; the TVL of the Avalanche network, has not declined significantly since this year. Interestingly, xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; #xff0c; TVL has also risen significantly since the end of this year.

12 月中旬，AVAX 价格一度突破 40?美元。虽然距离上轮牛市高点仍差距悬殊，但已经创下了约 100%?的单月涨幅。而季度涨势则更为汹涌，今年Q3时，AVAX 代币长期在略超 10?美元的位置徘徊。

In mid-December xff0c; AVAX prices broke out by $40? The gap is still wide xff0c; but it has already reached a one-month rise of about 100%. And the quarterly upturn is even stronger xff0c; this year Q3 xff0c; AVAX is long in position to be slightly above 10? dollars.

最后，BNB Chain 仍然是 EVM 网络中最值得关注的。尽管是一个老牌公链，但 BNB Chain 始终没有停下创新的步伐。随着 BNB Greenfield 和 opBNB 的上线，目前，BNB Chain 包括了计算、存储、Layer、zk 等多个领域。

Finally & #xff0c; BNB Chain is still the most interesting feature of the EVM network. Despite being an old public chain & #xff0c; BNB Chain has never stopped the pace of innovation. With BNB Greenfield and OPBNB online & #xff0c; currently xff0c; BNB Chain includes a number of fields such as computing, storage, Layer, zk, etc.

当然，BNB Chain 品牌也不止一条链，而是一个由 5 条链构成的庞大家族。这也让其在 Layer 1 领域独树一帜，占据了一个极为不同的生态位。

Of course xff0c; BNB Chain also has more than one chain xff0c; it is a large family of five chains. It also gives it a unique xff0c in Layer 1; it occupies a very different ecological position.

Layer 1 领域选手众多，本文难以一一列举。除上述提到的主要几条，其他公链也有诸多进展。

There are a lot of players in Layer 1 & #xff0c; this is difficult to list. In addition to the main & #xff0c mentioned above, there are many developments in other public chains.

如 11 月，Polkadot 开发机构Web3 Foundation 新任 CEO 表示，Polkadot 即将经历重大转变。此前曾多次引发市场热点的“插槽拍卖”将成为一种历史，Polkadot 即将放弃平行链的插槽拍卖，转而采用一种新机制，允许应用程序开发人员根据需要租用区块空间。11 月， NEAR 也宣布推出 NEAR 数据可用性（NEAR DA）层，这一网络为 ETH rollup 和以太坊开发者提供了强大、高性价比的数据可用性。NEAR DA 可降低成本，提高 rollup 的可靠性，同时保持以太坊的安全性。TON 网络也是与其他网络颇为不同的一朵奇葩。7 月，BOT 赛道的大火让 Telegram 成为了一个集钱包、交易为一身的另类加密应用。尽管人们交易的代币并为位于 TON 网络，但仍能引发人们对 TON 网络的遐想。9 月，Telegram 与 TON 基金会正式官宣合作，庞大的用户量为 TON 网络的用户增长带来了巨大的想象空间。

For example, in November xff0c; Polkadot development agency Web3 Foundation, the new CEO indicates xff0c; Polkadot is about to undergo a major transformation. The slot auction that has previously triggered market hot spots will become a history xff0c; Polkadot is about to abandon the slot auction of the parallel chain xff0c; instead a new mechanism xff0c; allowing application developers to lease block space as needed. In November xff0c; NEAR has also announced the introduction of NEAR data availability xff08; NEAR DAxff09; layer xff0c; this network provides a powerful, high-priced data for ETHs; #ffpliers are still using a large network; #Toffrets are still available; #TuffLet users are able to reduce the cost of x0; Truffon N N Tg N N

展望未来，我们很难预测 Layer 1 市场未来的具体走向。不过显然以太坊 Layer 2 的强势崛起，将进一步压缩其他 Layer 1 的生存空间。

Looking to the future xff0c; we have difficulty predicting the future direction of the Layer 1 market. But it is clear that the powerful rise of Taiyo Layer 2 xff0c; it will further compress the survival space of other Layer 1s.

对于公链来说，“像以太坊”在未来或许会越来越成为一个发展的掣肘——要么融入以太坊生态、要么与之彻底不同。

For the public chain, #xff0c; the Etherms may become an obstacle to development in the future - is either integrated into or completely different from the Etherm ecology.

随着牛市的临近，Layer 1 的叙事会在本轮周期中被 Layer 2 彻底超越吗？在即将到来的 2024 年，我们将共同见证这一问题的答案。

As the bull market approaches #xff0c; the narrative of Layer 1 will be completely overstepped by Layer 2 in the current cycle xff1f; in the coming 2024 xff0c; we will all bear witness to the answer to this question.

在 2022 的年终总结中，我们曾这样描述 DeFi 赛道?——?这显然不是最好的一年。

In the year-end summary of 2022 & #xff0c; we used to describe the DeFi track? This is obviously not the best year.

同样的话语依然适用于 2023 年，DeFi Llama 数据显示，截至 12 月初锁定在各大网络上所有 DeFi 协议内的 TVL 约为 508 亿美元，距离 2021 年 DeFi Summer 时的峰值 1, 785.4 亿美元仍有逾三倍的差距。?

The same words still apply to 2023 & #xff0c; the DeFi Llama data & #xff0c; the TVL of about $50.8 billion & #xff0c that was locked on all the major networks as of early December; and the peak of 1,785.4 billion at the time of DeFi Summer in 2021?

Odaily星球日报注：全网 TVL 距离历史峰值仍有相当大的距离。

不太一样的是， 2023 年显然也不是 DeFi 最坏的一年。迈过了 2022 年的寒冬，今年的 DeFi 已展现出了充足的复苏迹象，这不单单体现在全网 TVL 以及个体代币价格的相对复苏上，更体现在相较于 2022 年的整体沉寂，我们再次看到了多个子板块实现了小规模爆发，以及多个项目完成了突破性的迭代与创新。

Not quite the same xff0c; 2023 is clearly not the worst year for DeFi. After the cold winter of 2022 xff0c; this year's DeFi has shown ample signs of recovery xff0c; this is not merely reflected in the relative recovery of Internet-wide TVL and individual currency prices xff0c; it is more evident than in the overall silence of 2022 xff0c; we have seen

4 月，以太坊顺利完成上海升级，并正式激活了质押赎回功能，这直接助推了 LSDFi 板块的启动。Lido 借此东风一跃超过交易、借贷等多个板块的老牌龙头，坐上了 TVL 排行榜上的头把交椅。与此同时，随着 LST “池子”规模的不断扩大，围绕着 LSD 场景也开始出现更多不同类型的上层应用，其中许多项目在二级市场都曾有过亮眼表现，比如希望借原生质押收益突围稳定币市场的 Lybra、以及围绕收益部分大做文章的 Pendle 等等。

4 xff0c; successfully completed Shanghai upgrade xff0c with the Tails; and officially activated the pledge foreclosure function xff0c; this directly contributed to the start-up of the LSDFi plate. Lido used the wind to leapfrog over trading, lending, etc. xff0c; sat on the top of the TVL list. At the same time, xff0c; with the increasing size of the LST “pool” xff0c; and with the LSD landscape, more different types of upper-level applications xff0c; many of these projects have shown good performance in the secondary market xff0c; and, for example, Lybra, who wants to stabilize the currency market with raw proceeds, and Pendle, among others, who writes about the part of the proceeds.

除了 LSDFi 之外，RWA 亦是 DeFi 赛道今年最热门的板块。Maker 作为先驱代表，通过 DSR 和新窗口 Spark Protocol 打通对美债的收益渠道，吃到了高息周期的时代红利，进而放大了 DAI 的市场需求，推高了 MKR 本身的市值，成为了今年较长一段内表现最亮眼的 DeFi 项目。

, in addition to LSDFi, xff0c; RWA is also the hottest piece of the DeFi track this year. Maker as a pioneer representative xff0c; xff0c through DSR and a new window Spark Protocol; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; then magnified DAI's market demand xff0c; pushed MKR's own market value xff0c; became the most visible DeFi project for the longer part of the year.

在 DAI 借高息强势的同时，一批项目却开始“挖起了墙角”。稳定币板块今年迎来了多位重量级的新玩家，Curve 和 Aave 预热已久的 crvUSD 和 GHO 双双上线，虽然暂时在规模上仍无法与 DAI 并论，但背靠龙头协议可获得的场景优势已注定了其后劲不容小觑。出于良性竞争的考虑，我们很乐于看到更多不同的稳定币涌现，毕竟年初在经历了因硅谷银行事件而引发的大规模脱锚风波后，市场早已意识到拥有更多可选项才是最优解。

At the same time as DAI has taken advantage of its strength xff0c; a number of projects have begun to “draw the corner”; ’s steady currency plate has now ushered in several new heavyweight players this year xff0c; Curve and Aave have long-precipitated crvUSD and GHO double-line xff0c; although it is still not possible at scale to compare with DAI xff0c; but the market has long been aware that more options are available. xff0c; we are happy to see more different stable currencies emerge #xff0c; after a massive breakout caused by the Silicon Valley bank events early in the year #xff0c; the market is already aware that the best solution is to have more options.

老生常谈的衍生品是今年 DeFi 赛道内另一个比较亮眼的板块，从完成了自应用至网络转身的 dYdX，到即将启动 v3 版本的到在，再到于 Arbitrum 上雄踞一方的 GMX，我们正在见证 DeFi 的力量逐渐蚕食这个几乎曾被 CeFi 垄断的板块。

The usual derivatives are another brighter plate in the DeFi track this year & #xff0c; dYdX，, which has been implemented from application to network rotation; to xff0c, which is about to be launched from v3 to xff0c; and to GMX，, which is on the side of Arbitrum; and we are witnessing DeFi's power gradually encroaching on this plate, which has almost been monopolized by CeFi.

Paradigm 力推的“意图”是 DeFi 赛道新近的一项叙事，已有一小批涉足该板块的项目拿到了 VC 的早期投资。

Paradigm's “intention” is a recent narrative of the DeFi track & #xff0c; a small group of projects involved in the plate have received VC's early investment.

继续向微观去看，许多项目也都在 2023 年交出了值得赞许的答卷。持续领跑交易赛道的 Uniswap 惊艳发布了 v4 的蓝图，旨在利用 hooks 实现更灵活、更全面的功能；全能生 Frax 在稳定币、借贷、LSD、RWA 等多个板块均有所表现，并在年中的 CRV 清算风波中展现出了优异的抗压能力；Aevo 通过主打 pre-TGE 代币的“早鸟”合约，成为了诸多热门代币上线之前的主要价值发现场所……类似的优秀代表仍有许多。

Continue to look at microscopics xff0c; many of the projects also handed over commendable responses in 2023. Uniswap of running the track of the ongoing transaction has amazingly released a blueprint for v4 xff0c; aims to achieve a more flexible and comprehensive function xff1b using Hooks; full-fledged Frax has demonstrated xff0c; and has shown excellent resistance in mid-year's CRV clearing winds xff1b; Aevo's “early bird” contract xff0c with pre-TGE tokens; has been the main location for the discovery of values prior to the line of many hot-gates; and similar excellent representatives are still many.

当然，除了这些积极向的复苏迹象外，?2023?年的?DeFi?世界内依然存在许多隐忧，比如前文曾提到的硅谷银行事件所引发的稳定币大规模脱锚风波，以及因?Curve?创始人?Michael?Egorov?“恶意借贷”而凸显的借贷系统脆弱性问题，再如?Uniswap?Labs?屡遭诟病的中心化问题，以及以“Kyber?遭夺权威胁”事件为代表的黑客威胁持续升级问题……

Of course xff0c; in addition to these positive signs of recovery xff0c;?2023? DeFi? There are still a lot of concerns in the world xff0c; , such as the large-scale de-alerting of the steady currency caused by the Silicon Valley Bank incident, as mentioned earlier xff0c; and the increasing vulnerability of the lending system, highlighted by?Curve? Founder Michael?Egorov?? xff0c; again,?Uniswap?Labs?? The centralization of the disease xff0c; and the continuing escalation of the threat of hackers, represented by the “Kyber? Threat of Power”.

这是 DeFi 作为一个完整叙事所经历的第一次熊市，可完整并不意味着成熟，DeFi 显然还面临着诸多待解难题，不过总体而言，走过了 2023 年之后，我们已看到了 DeFi 并未被寒冬打倒，反而正在抬脚迈向复苏。

This is DeFi’s first Bear City #xff0c as a complete narrative; integrity does not mean maturity xff0c; DeFi clearly faces a number of unresolved problems xff0c; but overall xff0c; after 2023 xff0c; we have seen DeFi not being knocked down by the winter xff0c; rather, it is moving its feet towards recovery.

展望 2024 年，虽然我们尚无法得知什么才是点燃 DeFi 再次大爆发的引信，但大趋势上看，随着链上生态因游戏、社交等不同类型 Dapps 的集体涌现而再度蓬发，DeFi 作为基础设施必定会迎来更多的用户和更大的流量。

Vision 2024 & #xff0c; although we have not yet been able to know what ignites DeFi's fuzes & #xff0c; but big trends & #xff0c; re-exploitation of the ecosystem along the chain due to the collective appearance of different types of Dapps, such as games, socialization, etc. & #xff0c; DeFi as an infrastructure is bound to attract more users and larger flows.

那些勇于穿越穿越寒冬的项目们，注定会迎来岁月的嘉奖。

The #xff0c projecters who had the courage to cross the winter were destined to celebrate the years.

NFT：创新有限，少人问津，明年能否柳暗花明？

相比于大放异彩的铭文，NFT 在今年反而陷入了持续的低潮之中，全年除个别项目偶有亮点以外，头部蓝筹均陷入了反弹而非反转的困境之中，以 BAYC 为例，年初其均价一度在 71 ETH 左右，而到今年年底地板价仅剩 30 ETH 不到。

Compared to the glossy inscription & #xff0c; NFT has been in a constant low tide this year & #xff0c; xff0c with the exception of occasional highlights of individual projects throughout the year & #xff0c with the head blue build in a rebound rather than a reversal trap & #xff0c; BAYC as an example xff0c; its average price was once at the beginning of the year at around 71 ETH & #xff0c; and the floor price was less than 30 ETH at the end of this year.

与此相反的例子是“小企鹅”Pudgy Penguins，从社区濒临解散到实体玩具在亚马逊被一扫而空到手，新团队有条不紊的推进着自己的布局，其地板价也在熊市中逆势突围，前几天更是突破了 10 ETH 的大关。

Contrary to this, “Small Penguins” Pudgy Penguins， from the imminent dissolution of the community to the emptying of real toys in Amazonia; the new team is systematically pushing its own layout #xff0c; its floor price is also regressive in Bear City #xff0c; and the previous few days have broken the 10 ETH threshold.

而 NFT 市场的格局也发生了较大改变，Blur 从年初的与 Opensea 分庭抗礼，到年底几乎已经吃下了绝大多数市场份额，而一时风光无两的 Opensea 到 12 月份在周交易量上仅占整个市场的 20%?。尽管为了应对 Blur 的冲击，OpenSea 也相应做出了一些产品回应和社区回馈，但仍然无济于事。零版税的争论也随着 Blur 的登顶而落下帷幕——少有人会再讨论“创作者是否应该获得版税”这件事情了。

and the NFT market pattern has changed considerably xff0c; Blur from the beginning of the year against the Opensea Chamber xff0c; by the end of the year, almost the vast majority of the market share xff0c; and an empty Opensea from the end of December to only 20% of the weekly turnover of the market? Although some product responses and community feedback have been made in response to the Blur shock xff0c; OpenSea; and #xff0c; it is still not helpful. The zero tax debate has also ended with Blur’s peak – and few will discuss whether the creator should receive the royalties.

而以挖矿交易为卖点的X2Y2和 LooksRare 也并未因模式而成为市场上的奇兵，今年九月末，LooksRare 率先对代币经济学进行调整，结束了长达 1 年多的交易挖矿模型，并通过游戏作为平台新的卖点。而X2Y2尽管保留了挖矿交易的模式，但也在 11 月宣布减少代币排放量并推出跨链聚合器。但尴尬的是，无论是前者还是后者，其交易量在市场的占比都越来越少，最终成为了无数分母中的一个。

X2Y2 and LooksRare, which sell the mining trade, did not become marketers by mode & #xff0c; xff0c at the end of September this year; xff0c; xff0c at the end of the year; xff0c at the end of more than a year; xff0c at the end of the year; x2Y2 at the end of the game as a new selling point for the platform. xff0c xff0c at the end of November.

但 Blur 的崛起背后，是鲸鱼们的纷纷出走。今年 2 月 15 日，Blur 发布第二季空投计划，鼓励用户进行竞价 bid 和挂单。第一季的暴富神话吸引了大量用户涌入，大家为了吃到肉开始更疯狂的卷 bid。同为 BAYC 巨鲸，Franklin 和?“麻吉大哥”黄立成开始了明争暗斗，两人的交易量一度占据市场 8%?。然而由于流动性过于充裕，巨鲸们在刷分的过程中也吃下了大量抛售的卖单，黄立成在这场刷分游戏中损失超 500 ETH。而曾在 BendDAO 集体清算事件中豪迈出手的 Franklin 则深陷链上赌场泥潭，最终清仓所有 NFT，并注销了自己的推特账号。

But BLUR’s rise was followed by #xff0c; it was ‘strong’ whales running away. 15 February this year xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; encouraging users to compete for bits and shares. The first season’s myth attracted a large number of users to xff0c; people started to go crazy to eat meat; ff0c; ff0c; Franklin and? ;

就连本应躺赚版税的蓝筹项目方也顶不住了， 6 月 28 日零点，头部 NFT 项目 Azuki 的新系列作品 Azuki Elemental Beans 正式开始发售。而这次起拍价为 2 eth 的销售为项目方带来了总共 2 W ETH 的收入，社区热情可见一斑。然而，开图后的 Azuki Elemental Beans 却几乎百分百复刻原来的 Azuki 原图，项目方的敷衍惹恼了支持者们，尽管 Azuki 官方在事件后提出空投方案试图进行弥补，但 Holder 们依然头也不回的将自己的小图片换成了真金白银，随后永远离开了社区。

Even the blue fund-raiser, which should have earned royalties, was unable to survive xff0c; xff0c on June 28; Azuki Elemental Beans, a new series of head NFT projects in Azuki, officially launched. The sale of 2 eth brought a total of 2 W ETH revenues to the project xff0c; the community’s enthusiasm was visible. However, xff0c; Azuki Elemental Beans, after the start of the project, almost 100% of the original Azuki original xff0c; the project’s inflaming supporters #xff0c; despite Azuki’s official offer of an air-drop programme to make up xff0c; however, Hodler’s continued not to turn their pictures back into real gold silver xff0c; and he left the community forever.

唯一有所收获的大概是走多链聚合路线的平台们，OKX NFT Marketplace、Magic Eden 等平台逆流而上，尤其前者凭借其内置Web3钱包的优势，将聚合器的威力发挥到极致，更是借着 BTC 生态崛起的机会稳固了自己的地位，成为了市场上不可忽视的存在。但展望未来，原本人声鼎沸的 NFTFi 因市场热度的逐渐消退和 Blur 的充盈流动性成为了可有可无的鸡肋，聚合器恐怕也将成为 NFT 市场创新的终局。

The only gains are probably from platforms that follow multiple chains of polymeric routes & #xff0c; OKX NFT Marketplace, Magic Eden, etc., which are reversible to the flow of platforms & #xff0c; in particular, the former, thanks to the advantages of its built-in Web3 wallet & #xff0c; the power of the polymer to the extreme xff0c; and the opportunity of the BTC's ecological rise to consolidate its position xff0c; to become an inescapable presence in the market. But looking forward #xff0c; the former NFTi, which is inflamed by the gradual erosion of market heat and the high mobility of Blur, is likely to be the end of an innovative NFT market.

如果说 2021 和 2022 年的链游是五彩缤纷的，那么 2023 年的链游就是无尽的灰色——从“Play to Earn”到“X to Earn”，无数项目用花样百出的代币模型和粗制滥造的游戏画面吸引着一批又一批渴望复刻暴富梦想的投机者们，然而最终剩下的只有项目死亡螺旋后的一地鸡毛。

If the chains of 2021 and 2022 are colorful & #xff0c; then the chains of 2023 are endless grey — from “Play to Earth” to “X to Earn” & #xff0c; numerous projects attract another group of speculators who yearn to re-engine their dreams #xff0c; and ultimately, only one of the chicken hairs left after the project's death spiral.

6 月，Bored Ape Yacht Club 官方推特发布了关于新游戏「HV-MTL Forge」的宣传视频，并透露该游戏将于 6 月 29 日正式上线。这款围绕着 Yuga Labs 最新的机甲 NFT 系列 HV-MTL 展开的空间建造游戏，支持持有 HV-MTL 的玩家在游戏内搭建或者定制一个专属的特色空间，并通过游戏将自己的 HV-MTL 升级至新的形态。然而 Yuga 的新游戏却并未获得像以往牛市一样的高关注度——人们开始厌倦 NFT，也开始厌倦 NFT 的衍生游戏。

xff0c in June; Bored Ape Yacht Club official Twitter released a promotional video xff0c on the new game "HV-MTL Forge " ; and revealed that the game will be officially launched in June 29. This game revolves around Yuga Labs' latest machine armor NFT series HV-MTL & #xff0c; supports HV-MTL players to build or customize an exclusive niche within the game xff0c; and upgrades their HV-MTL to new shapes through the game. However, Yuga's new game has not gained as much attention as in the past cattle market — people are getting tired of NFT #xff0c; it is also starting to get tired of NFT derivative games.

7 月，Solana 生态 3A 链游 Star Atlas ?的开发公司 ATMTA 宣布大幅裁员，包括全职员工和被邀请共同开发游戏的合作工作室的承包商在内，团队总人数从 167 人削减至 45 人，裁撤比例高达 73%?，这个因 FTX 暴雷而元气大伤的项目靠着 NFT 交易市场的微薄收入勉强支撑，然而却并不足以覆盖团队所有人的薪水。Illuvium 联合创始人? Kieran Warwick 在推特上更是直接表示“一年前的提醒是为了保护Web3投资者免受潜在陷阱的影响”，并且公开挖起了墙角。

In July, xff0c; Solana Eco 3A Links Star Atlas? ATMTA announced a substantial reduction of staff xff0c; xff0c, including full-time employees and contractors invited to work together to develop games; the total team was reduced from 167 to 45 xff0c; the abolition rate was as high as 73%? xff0c; this project, which suffered heavy damage from FTX thunders, was barely supported by xff0c on the NFT trading market's meagre income; but it was not enough to cover the salaries of all team members. Illuvium co-founder? Kieran Warwick, on Twitter, stated more directly that “a year ago's reminder was to protect Web3 investors from potential traps” #xff0c; and publicly dug walls.

另一款众人期待的3A链游怎么样了？

How's the 3A link that we've been waiting for? #xff1f?

作为上一轮牛市的产物， 2021 年正式启动的 Bigtime 可谓是万众瞩目，其售卖的 NFT 更是迅速被一扫而空，如今游戏正式在今年 10?月 10?号开放季前赛版本，历经近 3 年的时间，Bigtime 的上线可谓备受期待。

As a product of the last round of cattle & #xff0c; Bigtime, which was officially launched in 2021, is popular & #xff0c; its NFT is sold quickly and empty & #xff0c; the game is now officially launched this year, October 10th? pre-open season & #xff0c; almost three years & #xff0c; and the upper line of Bigtime is expected.

然而，官方不断修改规则之下，许多新入场的工作室在权衡利弊之后选择了离开，甚至出现了“周一装好机，周二开始打金，周三全体撤退”的情况；而早早就布局这款大作的工作室，则依旧选择坚守，但收益也逐显颓势——项目方自主调控固然能够使得 Token 产出和币价维持在一个较为合理的水平，但过于集中的调控也使得玩家里回本远远无望——毕竟，大伙都不是真来玩游戏。

However, xff0c; xff0c under the official rule of continuous change; many newly introduced studios have opted out of xff0c after weighing their pros and cons; even xff0c; xff0c on Tuesdays; xff0c on Wednesdays; xff1b; xff0c) pre-arranged studio xff0c; xff0c; and xff0c; xff0c; , , , ,

满目灰色中也不乏有一抹亮色，FOCG（Fully-on-chain Games、全链游戏）在今年备受关注，不同于资产上链的 GameFi 1.0?，FOCG 所有的交互行为和状态全部都在链上完成，从而实现真正的去中心化游戏。Loot Survivor、Dark forest、Ryo、Skystrife 等一系列优秀作品迅速成为支持者们的心头好，社区更是三句不离全链“圣经”和“清真”。

There is no shortage of bright colours in gray & #xff0c; FOCG（ Fully-on-chain Games, whole-chain games & #xff09; focused this year & #xff0c; GameFi 1.0?& #xff0c, different from the asset chain; FOCG all interactive behaviors and state are completed on the chain & #xfff0c; thus achieving a real decentralized game. Lot Survivor, Darkforest, Ryo, Skystrife and so on, a series of excellent works quickly became the heart of supporters #xff0c; the community is all about the whole chain #xff0c.

“为什么人们要把游戏放在区块链上？”全链游戏尝试着将区块链的特性与游戏本身的可玩性所结合，意图给前面这一句话交上一份完美的答卷。

“Why people put the game on the block chain xff1f;” The whole-chain game attempts to combine the characteristics of the block chain with the playability of the game itself xff0c; it is intended to give the preceding sentence a perfect answer.

巧妇难为无米之炊。无论是极端考验性能的 FOCG，还是传统的 Ponzi-Game，都需要依靠基础设施来完成丰功伟业，而 Ronin 和 Starknet 各执一端：前者和各种游戏工作室达成协议，招徕着各路想法各异的链游开发者们，甚至还联系上了 Sandbox；后者因其性能优势和全链游戏引擎 Dojo 的出现而被打上“最受全链游戏欢迎的开发平台”，吸引着各路 Degen 前来大显身手。也别忘了 Sui——基于该区块链的小游戏 Sui 8192 简单、轻快，玩法和曾风靡一时的 2048 完全相同，只需使用方向键移动方块，将两个相同的数字重叠组合成更大的数字。这个简单易懂的小游戏一度帮助 Sui Network 日交易笔数突破 2000?万笔，并超过了 Solana。

xff0c

无论是对于从业者还是普通用户，Crypto Game 的赛道已经再无中间选择：向左通往传统链游，在一波又一波的代币飞轮中和 Ponzi 一起浮沉，尽管要忍受时常出现的 Bug，但依然能够收获财富；向右通往全链游戏，在新奇体验中体会到游戏真正的快乐，但大概率赚不到钱。

Whether for practitioners or ordinary users #xff0c; Crypto Game's track & #xff1a;

你呢，站哪边？

What about you #xff0c; which side #xff1f;

原本被视为鸡肋的Web3 Social 赛道今年异军突起。

The Web3 Social track, which was originally considered as a chicken, broke out this year.

2 月 1 日，Twitter 创始人 Jack Dorsey 发布推文表示，基于分布式社交媒体协议 Nostr 的社交产品 Damus 和 Amethyst 已分别在苹果 App Store 和谷歌 Google Play Store 上线。随后，Damus 宣布，将通过比特币闪电网络随机向用户发放小额比特币，并在下个版本推出针对帖子进行比特币打赏的功能。

February 1 & #xff0c; Twitter founder Jack Dorsey published tweets indicating & #xff0c; social products based on distributed social media agreement Nostr Damus and Amethyst are already online at Apple App Store and Google Google Play Store, respectively. & #xff0c; Damus announcement & #xff0c; small bitcoins will be distributed randomly to users via the Bitcoin Flash network #xff0c; and the next version will introduce a bitcoat feature for post.

一时间，微信朋友圈和推特时间线都被一长串字母刷屏，人们疯狂的转发着自己的公钥，在加密世界里重新建立起自己的关系。

One time xff0c; micro-letters of friends and Twitter lines are brushed with a long list of letters xff0c; people are madly transmitting their public keys xff0c; and their relationships are re-established in an encrypted world.

而使用以太坊架构的 Farcaster 则更为小众，邀请制进入的方式使得这个应用内聚集了 VC、项目方创始人和以太坊社区用户，当然还有V神。这个由 Coinbase 前高管 Dan Romero 建立的协议完全去中心化，方便开发者构建去中心化的社交网络应用，且在 Farcaster 上创建个人资料会生成助记词和以太坊 Goerli 测试网上的身份。

The use of Farcaster & #xff0c, which is a small group of people & xff0c; the use of the invitation system, which brings together VC, project founder and community user xff0c; and, of course, V God. This agreement, created by Coinbase ex-supervisor Dan Romero, is completely decentralized xff0c; facilitates developers to construct a decentralized social network application xff0c; and creates personal data on Farcaster that will generate notes and identity on the Goerli web site.

如果说前两者都都只是一小部分人的圈地自嗨，那么横空出世的 Friend.tech（下文简称 FT）则彻底点燃了赛道。

If the first two are just a small group of people #xff0c; then the birth of Friend.tech（ FT& #xff09; then the track is completely lit.

这个建立于 Base 链上的社交协议通过 Key 给人脉关系定价的玩法充分结合了动态博弈和社交价值的体现，而其也采取了类似 NFT 的“版税”模式，项目对 Key 的每笔交易收取 10%?的费用，其中的 5%?分配给被买卖 Key 的本人，剩下的 5%?归于国库收入。高额的版税以及官方推出的积分空投机制，使得互相持有高价值 KEY（3, 3）成为了众人的最优选。

This social agreement, built on the Base chain, fully integrates dynamic games and social values & #xff0c through Key's Pulse Pricing method; it also adopts the NFT-like “record” model & #xff0c; the project charges xff0c? 5% of which is allocated to the person who was bought and sold xff0c; the remaining 5% of which is attributable to the treasury. High royalties and the officially introduced #xff0c; allows each other to have a high value xff08; 3,3ff09; and is the best choice for the public.

短短数日，FT 涌入了大量的新用户，而其协议收入和交易量也在激烈猛增。截止发稿前，FT 协议总收入达到 15, 509.276 ETH，累计发生 12, 452, 771 笔交易。

A few days xff0c; FT poured in a large number of new users xff0c; and its agreed revenues and transactions increased dramatically. xff0c; FT agreement totals 15,509.276 ETH， cumulative 12,452,771 transactions.

FT 的爆火也直接带动了整个赛道的流量，Stars Arena、Tomo、New bitcoin City 等竞争者先后加入战局，其中 AVAX 创始人亲自下场站台的 Stars Arena 先发夺人，抢下了市场老二的位置，然而协议被盗加上开发团队的迟钝反应使得其被随后更完善也更多项目站台的 Tomo 夺走了市场份额，最终悄无声息。

The fire from FT also led directly to the flow of the entire track & #xff0c; Stars Arena, Tomo, New Bitcoin City, among others, joined the game & #xff0c; the founder of AVAX, Stars Arena, who had left the stage in person & #xff0c; the location of the second man in the market & #xff0c; but the theft of the agreement, combined with the slow reaction of the development team, took away the market share #xff0c; and ultimately, the silence.

不过，创始人提现、机器人账户大量抢跑获利、积分规则变更频繁等一系列动作逐渐使 FT 失去了活力，而大量真实用户被误判为机器人给处于火上中的项目浇了一把油，创始人 Racer 在平台上留下的“家人们，谁懂啊？”更是彻底将这件事上升到了前所未有的地步。

But xff0c; a series of actions, such as the founder's withdrawal, the large amount of profit from the Robot account and the frequent changes in the rules of points, have gradually lost the FT's vitality xff0c; while a large number of real users have been misconstrued as robots that have poured oil into the fire xff0c; the founder Racer's legacy of “family #xff0c; who knows xff1f;” has completely taken this to an unprecedented level.

至此大量用户砸盘出走已成定局。11 月 19 日，FT TVL 跌至 3604 万美元，相较于 11 月 18 日的 4, 225 万美元，跌幅达 18.13%?。

to this large number of users has reached a final date. November 19 xff0c; FT TVL down to $36.04 million xff0c; compared to $42.25 million xff0c on November 18; 18.13%?

FT 在 SocialFi 赛道的尝试是正确的吗？

FT's attempt on the SocialFi track was correct #xff1f;

从机制设计的角度来看，FT 确实开创了一种前所未有的模式，并且日活和协议收入证明了这种（3, 3）飞轮的可行性。这种模式为用户提供了一种参与和分享价值的机会，从而在早期能够吸引大量的用户参与。然而，尽管 FT 在机制设计上具有吸引力，但它仍然是一个金融属性极强的产品，而非真正意义上能够拥有长期粘性用户的社交产品。社交产品的长期粘性通常建立在用户之间的真实社交关系、共同兴趣和价值共享上。参与到这场“交朋友”游戏中的 KOL 们，更多地还是从经济利益角度出发，而由 Key 构建起来的社交关系也在 TVL 下滑中不断被砸盘摧毁殆尽。

From the point of view of the design of the mechanism, xff0c; FT does create an unprecedented model xff0c; and solar and protocol income attests to this xff08; 3xff09; and the feasibility of flying wheels. This model provides users with an opportunity to participate and share value xff0c; thus attracting a large number of users at an early stage. xff0c; xff0c; although FT is attractive in the design of the mechanism xff0c; it is still a highly financial-dependent product xff0c; rather than a social product capable of having a long-term sticky user. Long-term stickyness of social products is usually based on real social relationships between users, shared interests and shared values.

但这个赛道依然具有其存在的意义——在Web2，社交永远是攻城拔寨的巨头们不愿意放过的一块肥肉，而在Web3，尚未成熟的狂野西部也需要一群原生于区块链世界的协议以加强整个网络之间的联系，且“去中心化”、“打破数据垄断”、“自有资产”等叙事也一直是理想主义者们所追寻的目标。

But the track still has its meaning — in Web2， socialization is always a fat piece of meat that the giants in the city will never let go & #xff0c; and in Web3， the undeveloped wild west also needs a community of agreements from the block chain world to strengthen the links between the entire network & #xff0c; and narratives such as “decentralization”, “breaking the data monopoly”, “own assets” have also been pursued by idealists.

新的一年即将到来，SocialFi 赛道还会给我们带来什么样的惊喜？

The new year is about to come; what kind of surprise will the SocialFi track bring us?

2023 年是加密世界产生多种创新的一年，但创新的背后，也发生了许多令人咂舌的安全事件。一系列安全事件不仅凸显了当前的系统漏洞，也为未来的安全策略和技术发展留下重要的教训。

The year 2023 was a year of many innovations in the world of encryption xff0c; but behind the innovations xff0c; there were also a number of dramatic security incidents. A series of security incidents not only highlighted the current system gap xff0c; they also provided important lessons for future security strategies and technological developments.

回顾 2023 年，Web3行业在熊市中出现了多起大量安全事故，这些事件涉及多个方面，包括智能合约漏洞、钱包安全、跨链交易问题，以及针对去中心化金融平台的攻击。

Recalling that in 2023 & #xff0c; that in the Web3 industry there were a large number of security incidents in Bear City & #xff0c; that these events involved multiple aspects & #xff0c; included smart contract loopholes, wallet security, cross-chain transactions & #xff0c; and attacks against decentralised financial platforms.

正如此前历年一样，作为资产跨生态的中介，跨链桥中锁仓的大量资产无疑是黑客最好的目标。而在 2023 年，多款跨链桥攻击事件的单次损失金额依然名列前茅，其受损原因也多种多样。

As in previous years xff0c; xff0c; as an eco-intermediater of assets strong xff0c

7 月，跨链互操作协议 Poly Network 遭遇攻击。黑客通过 Poly 在数条链上增发资产，其中在 Metis 网络上增发近 1 亿枚 BNB 和近 100?亿枚 BUSD。黑客还在以太坊、HECO、Polygon、Avalanche、BSC 等链上增发多种资产。

July xff0c; Inter-linkages protocol PolyNetwork was attacked. Hackers increased assets & #xff0c on several chains via Poly; nearly 100 million BNBs and nearly 100 million BUSDs were added to the Metis network. Hackers also increased assets on the Etheria, HECO, Polygon, Avalanche, BSC, etc.

此外， 2022 年发生的 BNB 天量攻击案有了喜人的进展。此前，利用 Binance Bridge 漏洞窃取了约 200?万枚 BNB 的（价值近 6 亿美元）攻击者在 VenusProtocol 上存入了 924, 821 个 BNB，价值 2.49 亿美元。而存入的头寸是否会清算，进而引发市场进一步的连锁反应，一直牵动着整个 BNB 生态的用户。

In addition, xff0c; The BNB Daily Attack in 2022 was a welcome development. Prior to xff0c; stole about 2 million BNB xff08 using the Binance Bridge gap; valued nearly $600 million xff09; the attackers deposited 924,821 BNB， on VenusProtocol; valued at $249 million. And the positions deposited will settle xff0c; thus triggering further chain reactions in the market xff0c; and they've been holding users of the entire BNB ecology ecology ecology.

Venus 团队通过的提案显示，币安和其他 BNB 链生态系统参与者合作，在该头寸达到清算线时进行接管，并共同偿还债务。因此 BNB Chain 核心团队实际为此头寸的唯一清算者，以安全控制这一超大规模的 BNB 供应量，避免连环清算直接发生。在今年，该头寸已经进行了数次（相对总额而言的）小额清算，BNB 仍然平稳发展，无论是链上生态，还是 BNB 的币价，都未发生预期中最坏的情况——踩踏、连环清算、币价螺旋下跌。

The proposal adopted by the Venus team shows that xff0c; cooperation between the currency and other BNB chain ecosystem participants xff0c; taking over xff0c when the position reaches the liquidation line; and jointly paying the debt. So BNB Chain core team is the only liquidator of the position xff0c; controlling safely this super-large BNB supply xff0c; avoiding a direct liquidation of the chain. This year xff0c; the position has been carried out several times xff08; xff09; small settlement xff0c in relation to total; BNB still has a steady development xff0c; be it ecological #xff0c on the chain; or BNB's currency prices xff0c; and there is no worst-expected scenario in the future — stepping on, liquidating, falling currency prices.

若从生态影响来看，Multichain 事件或是过去一年里最为严重的事故。而这一事故也是跨链桥损失中最为离奇的一次事故。

In terms of ecological impact & #xff0c; Multichain or the most serious accident in the past year. The accident was also the most bizarre of the loss of cross-link bridges.

2023 年 5 月，跨链桥 Multichain 的用户突然发现自己的转账无法到账，随着时间的发酵，Multichain 原生代币 MULTI 也遭遇了快速的下跌，代币价格一日就暴跌了 35%?。一系列问题导致部分跨链路由无法使用知。这一事件迅速引发了社区的广泛关注和担忧，并引发了加密社区的恐慌情绪。

& #xff0c, May 2023; users of the cross-chain bridge Multichain suddenly discovered that their transfers could not reach the account & #xff0c; that the fermentation over time & #xff0c; Multician MULTI, the original currency, also suffered a rapid fall & #xff0c; that the price of the tokens fell 35% in one day. A series of questions led to a partial loss of access. The event quickly triggered widespread community concern and concern xff0c; and caused panic in encrypted communities.

7 月 6 日，超过 1.26 亿美元的资产从 MPC 托管地址中被人为转出，根据合约审计团队 Beosin 的分析，资金的转出完全是人为操作， Multichain 的 MPC 托管地址私钥已经被外力掌控。

July 6 & #xff0c; assets over $126 million were transferred from the MPC hosting address & #xff0c; analysis of the Beosin audit team & #xff0c; the transfer of funds was entirely artificial & #xff0c; the MPC hosting address private key is controlled by external forces.

然而，令人大跌眼镜的是。事后，根据官方的声明我们才得知——Multichain 的 24 个 MPC 节点私钥全部由 Zhaojun 一人掌握，且所有节点服务完全在其个人服务器中运行。

However, xff0c; it's hard to see. After a while xff0c; according to official statements, we only learned that the 24 MPC nodes of Multichain are all owned by Zhaojun alone xff0c; and that all node services run entirely on their personal servers.

尽管本次事件，并非由于纯粹的漏洞或攻击等技术角度，但项目方的风险管理能力和高度的中心化仍然让人不禁唏嘘。这也仅进一步突显了项目治理的重要性——非技术领域的“漏洞”，远具有比代码漏洞更可怕的破坏性。

Despite this event & #xff0c; not due to purely loopholes or technical angles such as attacks & #xff0c; however, the risk management capacity and high degree of centralization of the project participants are still insuffering. This only further highlights the importance of project governance — “faultholes” in non-technical areas & #xff0c; far more devastating than code holes.

这一风险事件不仅仅只是危及到该项目本身，更对 Fantom 生态带来了沉重打击。Fantom 采用了 Multichain 作为生态的主要跨链桥。更为不幸的是，今年 10?月，Fantom 基金会以太坊和 Fantom 上的部分钱包遭攻击，已确认的损失超过 65.7 万美元。Fantom 陷入了比熊更“熊”的窘境。

This risk event is not just a threat to the project itself xff0c; it is a severe blow to Fantom's ecology. Fantom used Multichain as the main cross-linkage bridge for the ecology. Unfortunately, xff0c; xff0c this October; xff0c; Fantom Foundation attacked some of its wallets on Taiku and Fantom; losses of more than $6.57 million have been confirmed. Fantom is in a situation of greater “bears” than bears.

JPEX 交易所的“暴雷”也进一步凸现了中心化运营的人为风险。这同样是另一起与技术无关的、却大量用户受损的风险事件。

The JPEX Exchange's “breathing thunder” further highlights the man-made risks that is operating centrally. This is another risk event that has nothing to do with technology but that has been damaged by a large number of users.

9 月，就在 token 2049 大会举办期间，JPEX 交易所限制了提币。提币额度被限制至 1000 USDT，而手续费竟高达 999 USDT。而正在参会的 JPEX 展位也“人去楼空”。本次案件中有超过 2000?人报警声称受害，涉及金额 13 亿港元，这起案件也被一些香港媒体称为“史上最大金融诈骗案”。交易所相关人员、为其做推广的 KOL 们等大量人员涉案。

September xff0c; xff0c; during the Token 2049 Congress, the JPEX Exchange restricted the amount of the coin. The amount of the coin was limited to 1000 USDT， the processing fee was as high as 999 USDT. The JPEX booth in the meeting was also “empty.” There were more than 2,000 people in this case who called the police who claimed to have been injured xff0c; 13 billion HK$ xff0c; this case was also referred to by some Hong Kong media as “the largest financial fraud in history”.

在港府鼓励支持 Web3，但政策仍未完善时，JPEX 大案的发生无疑是给香港 Web3 行业当头一棒，更透支了普通民众的信任。本次事件给刚刚推动监管合规的香港Web3画上了一个小小的注脚。

Encouraging support for Web3， in Hong Kong; but policies are still incomplete & #xff0c; the JPEX case undoubtedly took place in Hong Kong, where the Web3 industry was the first & #xff0c; and more in the trust of the ordinary people. This event drew a small note for Hong Kong's Web3, who has just pushed for regulatory compliance.

而其他老牌交易所也在安全管理上遭受着考验。

And other old-fashioned exchanges are being tested for security management.

今年 11 月，孙宇晨旗下 Poloniex 遭到攻击。链上数据显示，黑客盗取资产累计约 1.14 亿美元，波场也及时出手冻结部分黑客链上资产，但效果并不显著。

In November of this year xff0c; Poloniex under Sun Woo's flag was attacked. The data on the chain show that xff0c; that hackers have stolen assets of about $114 million xff0c; and that the waves have also promptly frozen some of the assets on the hacker's chain xff0c; but the effects have not been significant.

孙宇晨发文劝告黑客尽快“退款”，并愿意拿出 5%?资产作为白帽奖励。戏剧性的是，黑客将绝大多数被盗资产都换成了 TRX 代币，居然可以让 TRX 代币迎来一波短时暴涨。

Sun Woo advised hackers to “refund” & #xff0c as soon as possible; and is willing to give 5%? Assets as white hats. The dramatic thing is xff0c; hackers swap the vast majority of stolen assets for TRX tokens xff0c; they can make TRX tokens rise in a short wave.

孙宇晨旗下另一交易所也遭遇厄运——同月，Heco 与 HTX 被攻击。

Another exchange under Sun Woo's flag was also hit — the same month xff0c; Heco and HTX were attacked.

11 月，Heco Bridge 发生了一笔 10145 枚 ETH 的提款操作，而后不断有其他资产被转出，包括 4200?万枚 USDT、 489 枚? HBTC ?等一系列资产。HECO ?桥之外，HTX 也出现了 2340?万美元的可疑转账。

In November xff0c; Heco Bridge, a withdrawal operation of 10145 ETH xff0c; after which other assets were constantly transferred out of xff0c; including 42 million USDT, 489? HBTC??. A series of assets. HECO? outside the bridge xff0c; HTX also showed suspicious transfers of $23.4 million.

目前这两家交易所已经从危机中恢复，运营并未受到严重影响，用户存续款也已有序恢复。

The two exchanges have now recovered from the crisis xff0c; their operations have not been seriously affected xff0c; and the user retention payments have been restored in an orderly manner.

而对于那些知名 DeFi 项目而言，庞大的资金池让他们成为黑客垂涎的盛宴。3 月中旬，Euler Finance 遭到黑客攻击，损失金额接近 2 亿美元，之后攻击者归还全部盗取资金。被盗资产被归还，这在加密货币领域中极为罕见?。

And for the well-known DeFi projects of xff0c; the huge pool of funds made them a feast for hackers. xff0c in mid-March ; xff0c; xff0c; nearly $200 million in damages xff0c; then the attackers return all stolen funds. The stolen assets are returned xff0c; this is extremely rare in the area of encryption money?

新锐项目的安全性更值得关注。过快的发展、经验的不足、大量的资沉，让新锐明星项目成为了一个安全洼地。在今年 SocialFi 大火之时，Stars Arena 一时间出尽风头。但在今年 10?月初，该平台遭受了严重的漏洞利用，导致近 300?万美元的 AVAX 代币被盗，引发了人们对现有安全措施的担忧。

The security of

随后，团队将智能合约暂停，并表示将进行合约迁移。为此，原团队的所有成员均付出了被撤职的代价。11 月底，Stars Arena 完成密钥和资金的迁移工作，网站已经恢复。12 月初，团队表示将进行合约升级与迁移，当用户重新开始交易时，合约中的 TVL 将转移至新的智能合约中。

Then xff0c; the team suspended the smart contract xff0c; and indicated that the contract would be moved. To this end xff0c; all the members of the original team paid the cost of removal. At the end of November xff0c; Stars Arena completed the key and fund migration xff0c; the website has been restored. At the beginning of the month xff0c; the team indicated that the contract would be upgraded and moved xff0c; xff0c when the user recommenced the transaction; the TVL in the contract will be transferred to a new smart contract.

或许受加密市场回暖的影响，Q4安全事件频发。11 月下旬，老牌项目 dYdX 也发生了“攻击”事件。

Perhaps affected by the warming of the encryption market xff0c; Q4 security incidents were frequent. 11 xff0c late in the month; the old project dYdX was also “attacked”.

YFI 在一日内创下约 45%?的跌幅。暴跌影响了 dYdX 上的多头头寸，让 dYdX 上的仓位产生了连环清算，近 3800?万美元的资金被清算。由于下跌速度极快，一度出现了资金缺口，dYdX 更是付出了 900?万美元的代价。

YFI dropped about 45% in a day. The crash affected multiple positions on dYdX & #xff0c; allowing the warehouse on dYdX to generate a serial liquidation & #xff0c; close to 38 million dollars. Funds were liquidated because of the speed of the fall xff0c; once there was a funding gap #xff0c; and dYdX cost $9 million.

与其他知名项目的“被盗”不同，dYdX 的攻击者采用了纯金融手段进行攻击，所进行的操作均为公开市场的交易操作，并未利用任何安全漏洞。

Unlike other well-known projects, xff0c was “stoked”; the attackers of dYdX used purely financial means to attack xff0c; operations were conducted on the open market xff0c; and no security loopholes were exploited.

而此类攻击并不是在加密市场第一次发生。2022 年，Mango Markets 的 1.16 亿美元攻击事件就曾给市场敲响了警钟。攻击者更是直言，自己所进行的只是“高利润交易策略”，拒不承认外界施加给他的“攻击者”身份。

The $116 million attack on Mango Markets in 2022 was a wake-up call to the market. The attackers spoke out loud & #xff0c; they did nothing but “high profit trading” & #xff0c; and refused to recognize the identity of the “attacker” imposed on him by the outside world.

总体来看， 2023 年所面临的安全形势更为复杂。在探讨链上世界安全时，我们不得不面对一个现实：尽管“code is law”是加密世界的愿景和追求，但任何代码的编写、部署，项目的运营、维护，治理的议定、执行，都仍然是由人来进行的。

Overall, xff0c; 2023 is a more complex security situation. In exploring world security in the chain, xff0c; we have to face a reality xff1a; is still done by people.

在今年的多起另类“安全”事件中，我们都可以观察到类似的现象——或许在技术上并无被发现的漏洞，但项目仍然由于技术之外的原因遭到了巨额损失，进而导致用户资产受损。而 dYdX 的攻击案更是直接暴露了链上世界“黑暗森林”的环境，无需破坏任何规则、完全公开的市场操作都足以让一个知名项目受损严重。

In a number of other “safe” events this year & #xff0c; we can all see similar phenomena – perhaps there are no technically detected gaps & #xff0c; but the project continues to suffer huge losses outside technology & #xff0c; thereby causing damage to user assets. The dYdX attack directly exposed the environment of the “dark forest” in the chain of the world & #xff0c; completely open market operations are sufficient to damage a well-known project without breaking any rules.

2023 年的这些安全事件展示了Web3行业在各种赛道面临的不同挑战，行业仍需在监管合规、机制设计、技术安全等不同方面进一步优化，以保护用户资产免受这些日益复杂的威胁的影响。

These security incidents in 2023 demonstrated the different challenges faced by the Web3 industry in various tracks & #xff0c; the industry still needs to further optimize xff0c in different aspects of regulatory compliance, mechanism design, technical security, etc.; and to protect user assets from these increasingly complex threats.

这种反复出现的问题提醒我们，加密生态系统还远未成熟，投资者和开发者都必须采取更加谨慎的策略。只有通过行业的集体努力和持续的创新，我们才能在实现加密世界潜力的同时最小化风险。

This recurring problem reminds us that encryption ecosystems are far from mature & #xff0c; investors and developers must be more cautious. Only through collective industry efforts and sustained innovation #xff0c; we can minimize risks while realizing the potential of the encryption world.

2023 年已经进入尾声， 2024 年的加密市场更加值得期待，Odaily星球日报为读者筛选了几个值得重点关注的维度信息。

The 2023 end & #xff0c; the 2024 encryption market is even more promising & #xff0c; the Odaily Planet Daily screens several interesting dimensions for readers.

第一是现货 ETF 即将问世，将为传统资金入场打开通道。目前，包括贝莱德、景顺在内的多个传统资管机构正在积极回应 SEC 相关要求，不断修改申请文件。从时间节点来看，明年 1 月中旬左右会有 8 个 ETF 等待决议，特别是 ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF 的审批结果会成为一个风向标。

First is the spot ETF & #xff0c; it will open up access to traditional funds. now & #xff0c; several traditional financial institutions, including Beled, Xinxyun, are responding positively to the relevant requirements of the SEC & #xff0c; continuously revising the application documents. xff0c from a time point; 8 ETFs will be waiting for resolution #xff0c in mid-January next year or so; in particular, ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF will be a signpost.

2024 年 1 月 10?日，是 ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF 审批的最终时间节点。如果 ARK 21 Shares 成功被批准，则其他几家大概率也会被同时批准，SEC 不会允许某一家机构获得重要的先发优势；如果被拒，则 ARK 21 Shares 又要重走一遍流程，开启 240?天的漫长审查期；更深的影响是，其他几家也无法幸免，基本可以提前宣告这一轮现货 ETF 申请基本阵亡——虽然其他几家 ETF 的最终决议时间是明年 3 月中旬。

10 January 2024? & #xff0c; is the final time node for approval of ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF. If ARK 21 Shares was successful in approval & #xff0c; others are likely to be approved at the same time & #xff0c; SEC will not allow an institution to obtain an important pre-emptive advantage xff1b; if it is rejected xff0c; ARK 21 Shares is going to go through the process again xff0c; open 240? The long review period xff1b; the deeper effect is xff0c; others will not be able to escape xff0c; this current ETF application is largely declared dead in advance — although the final ETF resolution for the others will be in mid-March next year.

根据彭博分析师等多方预测，明年比特币现货 ETF 的通过概率超过 90%?。一旦正式通过，将有大量的场外增量资金进入加密市场，推动比特币价格攀升。

According to multiple predictions & #xff0c from Bloomberg analysts, next year's spot ETFs are more likely to pass than 90%. Once officially passed & #xff0c; substantial off-site incremental capital will enter the encrypted market & #xff0c; pushing Bitcoin prices up.

管理资金规模高达 700?亿美元的美国资管巨头 VanEck 发文称：“我们预计超过 24 亿美元将在 2024 年第一季度流入新批准的美国现货比特币 ETF，并推动比特币价格上涨。尽管存在大幅波动的可能性，但比特币价格在 2024 年第一季度不太可能跌破 3 万美元。”

Managing up to US$70 billion, the big US fund manager Van Eck, called xff1a; “We expect more than $2.4 billion to flow into newly approved US spot bitcoin ETF& #xff0c in the first quarter of 2024; and to boost the price of bitcoin. Despite the possibility of significant fluctuations xff0c; however, bitcoin prices are unlikely to fall by $30,000 in the first quarter of 2024.”

第二是比特币将在明年 4 月进行历史上第四次减半，带来“减半行情”。在这一轮减半中，每创建一个区块的奖励减少到 3.125 个 BTC。历史上，比特币减半是推动比特币进入新一轮牛市的重要催化剂，前三次减半均迎来了 BTC 价格的大幅上涨。2024 年的比特币减半即将到来，无数项目方已经开始摩拳擦掌，在多方面的努力下，历史可能重演。不过，需要注意的是，比特币“减半行情”离不开宏观经济环境的改善，包括美联储采取放缓加息、停止加息以及启动降息等货币政策调整。

The second is that bitcoin will be halved for the fourth time in its history in April next year xff0c; it will be reduced by half xff0c; the incentive for each block to be created will be reduced to 3.125 BTCs. Historically xff0c; Bitcoin by half is an important catalyst for the entry of bitcoin into a new round of cattle xff0c; BTC prices have risen dramatically in the first three times. The halving of bitcoins in 2024 is approaching xff0c; numerous project parties have begun to rub their fists xff0c; under multiple efforts xff0c; history may repeat. xff0c; attention needs to be paid to xff0c; Bitco’s “half by half” is an improvement in the macroeconomic environment xff0c; including a slowdown in the US Federal Reserve, a halt in interest hike and a start on monetary policy adjustments.

Kraken 策略主管 Thomas Perfumo 表示：“这次减半的特殊之处在于，比特币流通供应的通胀率将有史以来首次降至 1%?以下。”同时美联储可能会调整政策，美国现货 ETF 获得批准上市，在此大背景下，投资者可能会迎来一场“完美风暴”。?

Kraken Strategy Manager Thomas Perfumo said xff1a; “The special thing about halving this time is xff0c; for the first time in history, inflation in Bitcoin circulation will fall below 1 per cent?” At the same time, the Fed may adjust its policy xff0c; the United States spot ETF is approved for listing xff0c; in this larger context xff0c; investors may come to a “perfect storm”.

第三是以太坊坎昆升级以及以太坊现货 ETF 的问世。以太坊坎昆升级被视为以太坊升级路线的里程碑事件。该升级将通过引入分片技术（Sharding）与之前已经运用的 Rollup 解决方案形成一种“双轮驱动”的扩容模式。坎昆升级不仅能够解决当前以太坊网络面临的性能瓶颈问题，还为未来的深层次升级奠定了基础。另外，在明年的升级中，以太坊还将实施 EIP-4844 （proto-danksharding），这将降低交易费用并提高 Polygon、 Arbitrum、 Optimism 等 L2 的可扩展性。在升级的推动下，明年 ETH 价格可能有望大幅反弹，ETH/BTC 汇率也将企稳回升。

third is the advent of an EP Cancún upgrade and an ETF on-the-spot upgrade. The EP Cancún upgrade is seen as a landmark event on the EPP upgrade route. The upgrade will be implemented through the introduction of sub-technology & #xff08; Shalding #xff09; a two-wheel drive expansion model with the previously used Rollup solution. #xff08; #xffc; this will not only reduce transaction costs and improve performance bottlenecks in the current TERnet xff0c; it will also provide a basis for further upgrades. xff0c; in next year's upgrade xff0c; EIP-4844 & #xff08; Proto-dansharding #xff09; #xffc; xffc; this will reduce transaction costs and increase the efficiency of Plygon, Arbitrum, Optimismm and L2.

第四是交易所格局变化，更多新兴 CEX/DEX 可能崛起。随着今年币安、Coinbase 以及 kraken 等一众 CEX 巨头相继被起诉，合规性成为交易所发展面临的头号难题，可能会有一部分资金和用户转向 DeFi 世界，推动更多新兴 DEX 涌现。此外，OKX、 Bybit、Coinbase 和 Bitget 可能也会承接一部分用户，从而改变既有的 CEX 格局。更重要的是，以往每轮牛市都会新兴平台成为黑马抢占一定的市场份额，这次也不例外。投资者需要密切关注有潜力的新兴平台，其平台币可能会有更多超额价值。

, fourthly, is a change in exchange pattern xff0c; more emerging CEX/DEX may rise. will be prosecuted xff0c as a group of CEX giants this year; compliance becomes the number one challenge for exchange development xff0c; some funds and users may turn to the DeFi World xff0c; more emerging DEX may emerge. And xff0c; OKX, Bybit, Coinbase and Bitget may also take over a group of users xff0c; thus changing existing CEX patterns. More importantly xff0c; in the past, every new cattle market has become a black horse #xff0c; this time investors will need to pay close attention to new platforms with potential x0c; and their platform currency may be more overvalued.

第五是 Meme 文化发展，铭文将继续延续热潮。Ordinals 协议的诞生。推动了比特币生态的发展，也让矿工获得更多的收益。更重要的是，铭文等 Meme 文化主导下形成了较为公平的 Freemint 模式，打破了此前加密市场由 VC 把控的项目代币的局面，真正让价值回归社区，以共识推动价格。

fifthly is the Meme Cultural Development & #xff0c; the motto will continue. Ordinals protocol was born. xff0c; it also gave more benefits to miners. xff0c; more importantly, xff0c; Melme culture led to a fairer Freemint Model & #xff0c; broken the pre-encryption market-controlled project-deposited by VC xff0c; real return of values to the community xff0c; and consensus-driven pricing.

DWF Labs 合伙人 Andrei Grachev 评价称，Meme 是加密货币的重要组成部分，是一种文化现象。小幽灵创始人 Sleepy 认为，Meme 是永远不会消失的，是永远都会层出不穷的， 2024 年 Meme NFT 生命周期会比现在还要短暂，个别项目的财富效应会更疯狂。

The DWF Labs partner Andrei Grachev evaluates & #xff0c; Meme is an important part of encrypted money & #xff0c; it's a cultural phenomenon. The founder of the little ghost Sleepy thinks & #xff0c; Meme is & #xff0c; xff0c ; xff0c ; 2024 Meme NFT life cycle will be shorter & ff0c; the wealth effects of individual projects will be crazier.

第六是区块链游戏板块可能出现爆款。前几年的 Axie Infinity、Stepn 等都曾火爆出圈，带动更多传统用户进入加密市场，下一轮牛市链游依然是打开增量的突破口之一。根据 VanEck 预测， 2024 年至少有一款区块链游戏日活跃用户超过 100?万，展现出人们期待已久的潜力，与链游有关的底层区块链也可以重点关注。

sixthly is the possibility of a bursting of block-chain games. has all been on fire in previous years, such as Axie Infinity & #xff0c; leading more traditional users into the encrypt market & #xff0c; the next round of cattle chains is still one of the entry points for opening up the increment. Depending on Van Eck's prediction & #xff0c; 2024 at least one block-chain game has been active daily more than 100? xff0c; displays long-awaited potential #xff0c; the bottom sector chains associated with chains can also be focused.

最后，关于比特币未来的价格，也是大家最关心的话题，许多加密市场大佬也给出了自己对未来行情的看法：

Finally, #xff0c; about the future price of Bitcoin & #xff0c; also a topic of greatest interest to everyone & #xff0c; many encryption marketers have also given their own views on the future & #xff1a;

币安联合创始人何一表示，明后年市场将迎来高点。“加密周期依然存在。在明年到后年，市场将迎来高点。但随着行业的体量变大，增速会低于此前的周期。”

How does the co-founder of the currency union mean xff0c; the market will be high in the coming year? "The encryption cycle still exists. The market will be high in the coming year. But as the industry becomes larger xff0c; the rate of increase will be lower than the previous cycle."

Galaxy Digital 首席执行官 Michael Novogratz 认为 BTC 价格明年将会大幅上涨，尤其是在美联储可能降息的情况下，并认为到明年年底，比特币可能达到历史高点。

Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz believes that BTC prices will rise significantly next year xff0c; xff0c, especially if the Fed is likely to reduce interest rates xff0c; xff0c; Bitcoin is likely to reach an all-time high by the end of next year.

Bitwise Asset Management 首席投资官（CIO）Matt Hougan 表示，最近比特币和其他加密货币价格飙升，同时黄金价格大幅上涨，这一趋势反映出投资者转向对通胀敏感、能够防范经济风险的资产。Hougan 对比特币的前景持乐观态度，预测未来 6 个月至 1 年内比特币价格将创下历史新高，他预期投资者将继续涌入加密货币市场。

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer & #xff08; CIO） Matt Hougan indicated & #xff0c; recent surges in Bitcoin and other encrypted currencies & #xff0c; and a sharp rise in gold prices & #xff0c; this trend reflects the shift of investors to inflation-sensitive assets that can protect against economic risks. Hougan's prospects for Bitcoin are optimistic & #xff0c; it is projected that in the coming six-month to one-year period Bitcoin prices will be at an all-time high #xff0c; he expects investors to continue pouring into the encrypted currency market.

Skybridge Capital 创始人 Anthony Scaramucci 预测比特币市值未来将达到 10?万亿至 12 万亿美元，而这与美国 SEC 是否批准现货比特币 ETF 申请无关。

The founder of Skybridge Capital, Anthony Scaramucci, predicts that the market value of Bitcoins will reach 10 trillion to 12 trillion dollars xff0c in the future; this has nothing to do with whether the United States SEC approves the current Bitcoin ETF application.

新的一年将至，Odaily星球日报会继续坚守在Web3最前线，将个中变化与希望带给我们的读者朋友们。

the Daily Planet will continue to stand on the front line of Web3 xff0c; bring change and hope to our readers.

愿熵增熵减中，万物生长。

May the entropy increase its entropy by #xff0c; all things grow.

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