2022年元宇宙行业发展现状及主题机会分析 大型G端/B端项目推动元宇宙技术发展

资讯 2024-06-23 阅读:55 评论:0
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当前对“元宇宙“概念其中一个具有代表性的定义为:“元宇宙” 是一个平行于现实世界,又独立于现实世界的虚拟空间,是映射 现实世界的在线虚拟世界,是越来越真实的数字虚拟世界。2021 年3月Roblox成功在纽交所上市,被认为是元宇宙概念兴起的起 点。元宇宙是数字技术构建的产物,在Roblox招股书中,这家公 司认为元宇宙应该有8个属性:身份、朋友、沉浸感、低延迟、多 元化、随地、经济系统和文明。

At present, one of the representative definitions of the concept is & & & & & & & & & & ; a virtual space parallel to the real world and independent of the real world, the online virtual world that maps the real world, an increasingly real digital virtual world. Roblox’s success in March 2021 was considered to be the starting point of the meta-cosm concept. The meta-cosm is a product of the construction of digital technology, and in Roblox’s sharebook, the Crown believes that the meta-cosm should have eight attributes: identity, friends, immersion, low delay, multi-mechanization, geographical, economic systems and civilization.

我们认为狭义上理解,元宇宙指数字化人的感官体验,包括视 觉、听觉(VR、AR)、触觉、味觉、嗅觉,让感官体验在虚拟世 界之中与现实世界几乎没有差别;广义上理解,元宇宙指除了人 的数字化,还包括万事万物以及过程、关系的数字化,将现实世 界完全映射到虚拟世界。包含“虚拟原生”和“虚拟共生”双重 定义。其中“虚拟原生”指基于数字化技术手段,通过构建的人 或事物的“数字孪生”,在虚拟世界中实现身份认同、货币交易、 社区归属到职业发展等社会活动;“虚拟共生”指利用技术手段, 打破时空的区隔与现实定律的束缚,极大增强人类的感知能力与 认知能力,实现虚实空间的相互融合,且能够相互影响。

We believe that, narrowly understood, the meta-cosm refers to the sensory experience of a digital person, including vision, hearing (VR, AR), touch, taste, smell, which is virtually different from the real world in the virtual world; broadly understood, the meta-cosmos refers to the digitalization of everything, in addition to the human being, and to the digitalization of processes, relationships, and the full mapping of the real world to the virtual world. Includes & ldquo; virtual & rdquo; virtual symbiotic & rdquo; dual definitions.

从布局机会上看,我们认为应从“基本面机会”及“主题性机会” 两个角度切入。(1)基本面机会:元宇宙早期阶段,G/B端等大型 项目有望率先产生经济效益,推荐具备业绩确定性的虚拟展览行 业。(2)主题性:关注具有较大想象空间的创新领域,如 NFT、 虚拟数字人。

In terms of layout opportunities, we believe that we should cut from &ldquao; Basic Opportunities & & rdquao; & & & & & & & ; Thematic Opportunities & & & & ; two angles. (1) Basic Opportunities: In the early years of the meta-cosm, large projects such as G/B end are expected to take the lead in generating economic benefits, recommending virtual exhibition industries with performance certainty. (2) Thematic: focus on innovative areas with greater imagination, such as NFT, virtual digital people.

虚拟展览一方面受益于元宇宙需求增加,另一方面受益于文化新 基建的需求增加,有望率先产生规模化经济效益。

The virtual exhibition benefits, on the one hand, from the increased demand for the meta-cosmos and, on the other, from the increased demand for new cultural infrastructure, and is expected to lead in the generation of economies of scale.

参照相芯科技对虚拟数字人行业发展的论述(Q量子位),我们认 为元宇宙发展将经历三个阶段G端/B端大型项目及应用推动、B To C应用普及、C端应用及内容普及:

In the light of the development of the virtual digital industry (Q quantum bits) in the context of core technology, we believe that the development of the meta-cosmos will undergo three phases of G/B-end large-scale projects and applications, B ToC applications, C-end applications and content diffusion:

1、G端/B端项目及应用大规模落地:元宇宙相关软硬件及基础设 施处于发展早期,相关建设成本较高,G端/B端初步尝试拥抱新技 术、新业态,尤以G端项目落地速度及进度更快。主要系:

The G-end/B end project and the application of large-scale landings: the meta-cosmos-related hardware and software and infrastructure are in the early stages of development, the associated construction costs are high, and the G-end/B end is an initial attempt to embrace new technologies, new practices, especially with the G-end project landing faster and faster.

(1)地方政府逐步推出有关支持元宇宙发展的相关文件,G端元 宇宙项目将起到示范及指引作用,对经济效益回报诉求较低,一 方面有助于提供元宇宙项目建设的范例,另一方面也可通过政府 投资吸引民营资本大举进入,推动技术发展。

(1) Local governments are gradually introducing documents that support the development of the meta-cosmos, G. The cosmos project will serve as a model and guide for low claims for economic benefits, one that will help to provide an example of the construction of the meta-cosmos project and, on the other hand, facilitate technological development through government investment to attract private capital.

我国多地政府也出台多项关于元宇宙政策。我国中央层面尚未有 明确的官方政策指引,但多个地方政府已经出台元宇宙相关扶持 政策,如上海、武汉、合肥、无锡、北京等地相关政策文件中均 提及元宇宙的发展,中纪委网站发表文章中提到“世界上没有称 为“元宇宙”的单一技术,元宇宙是现有各种技术的组合和升 级,可以理解为“3D 版的互联网”。扩展现实技术……。数字孪 生技术……。”文章表明了对元宇宙底层技术的支持态度。

Many of our governments have also introduced policies on meta-cosmos. While there are no clear official policy guidelines at the central level, several local governments have introduced eco-cosmos-related support policies, such as those in relevant policy documents in Shanghai, Wuhan, Fatty, Tin-free, Beijing, etc., which refer to the development of the meta-cosmos, &ldquao; &ldquao; & ldquo; & rdquao; single technology, which is a combination and upgrading of existing technologies, understood as &ldqua; &rdquao on the Internet in 3D editions; … … Digital biotech; … & & hellip; & & rdquao; articles that demonstrate a supportive attitude towards lower-level technologies in the meta-cosm.

(2)国外政府对元宇宙态度不一,但总体保持乐观,预计相关G 端项目的海外需求也较为旺盛,国内数字/虚拟空间建设龙头有望 拓展海外业务。

(2) Foreign governments differ in their attitude towards the meta-cosmos, but are generally optimistic, and the overseas demand for the G-end project is expected to be more robust, with domestic digital/virtual space-building poles expected to expand overseas operations.

(3)大型优质 B 端企业为了品牌形象及彰显实力,预计会追随 G 端项目拥抱虚拟数字空间。

(3) Large, high-quality B-end enterprises are expected to follow G-end projects to embrace virtual digital space for brand image and strength.

2、B To C 应用逐渐普及:大型 G 端/B 端项目推动元宇宙技术发 展,相关成本逐步降低,同时消费者习惯开始逐渐形成,元宇宙 应用开始显现大规模商业化的潜力,具备一定的经济效益,同时 厂商开始关注 C 端内容及技术变现的可能性。B To C 项目盈利能 力逐渐提升。

2. B. ToC. Applications are becoming more widely available: large G/B end-of-end projects promote the development of meta-cosm technologies, and associated costs are decreasing, while consumer habits are beginning to evolve, applications in meta-coastal applications are beginning to show potential for large-scale commercialization, with some economic benefits, while manufacturers are beginning to focus on C end content and technology realization possibilities.

3、C 端应用及内容大规模普及:随着相关技术、商业化能力进一 步加强,C 端用户接入元宇宙渠道及终端大规模普及,C 端应用及 内容具备大规模商业化的潜力,元宇宙将进入普遍繁荣的阶段。

3. C-end applications and content diffusion: As technology, commercialization capacity, C-end user access to meta-cosmos channels and terminals become widely available, C-end applications and content have the potential for large-scale commercialization, and the meta-cosmos will enter a phase of universal prosperity.

我们认为元宇宙将首先在大型 G 端/B 端项目上产生大规模需求, 且需求预计保持持续高增长,其中虚拟展览、数字城市均为重要 的落地场景。

We believe that the meta-cosmos will be the first to generate large-scale demand on large G-end/B end projects and that demand is expected to continue to grow at a high rate, with virtual exhibitions, digital cities, all important landing scenarios.

(1)虚拟现实技术是元宇宙重要技术,将带来显示成像领域的重 要变革,但由于技术商用化门槛高,政府将是前期重要客户,比 如奥运会上的虚拟人、春晚虚拟人等;

(1) Virtual reality technology is an important technology in the meta-cosm, which will bring the weight of the visualization field to change, but due to the high commercialization threshold of technology, governments will be the pre-eminent customers, as compared to virtuals at the Olympic Games, virtuals at spring-nights, etc.;

(2)元宇宙是新基建的重要应用场景,可以带动 VR、AR 等多种 产业的发展;

(2) The Woncosmos is an important application scenario for new infrastructure that can lead to the development of industries such as VR, AR, etc.;

(3)从文化的角度出发,地方政府对公共文化建设愈加重视,元 宇宙主要技术虚拟现实等技术将提升展览效果,带动当地展览馆 新建及更新改造需求。

(3) From a cultural point of view, local governments are paying more attention to the construction of public culture, and technologies such as the virtual reality of the main technologies of the universe will enhance the effectiveness of the exhibitions and stimulate the need for new and updated exhibitions.

此外文化新基建在政策端和资金端均有较大支持,预计疫情过后 相关需求持续旺盛。中共中央办 公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《关于推进实施国家文化数字化战略 的意见》(简称《意见》)第五点明确表示发展数字化文化消费新 场景,大力发展线上线下一体化、在线在场相结合的数字化文化 新体验,我们认为主要落地场景包括城市馆、博物馆、艺术馆等 文化性质主题馆。(1)文化类基建属于区别于传统的新基建,符 合政策导向,本身会受到政府端的重点支持;(2)国家推进专项 债使用进度,资金端预计相对充裕。专项债的发行进度及使用进度均要求提前:2021年发 行的专项债券,原则上在2022年5月底前拨付使用;对2021年12 月提前下达的2022年专项债券,原则上在2022年9月底前拨付使 用;对第二批专项债券额度尽可能在三季度前使用。

In addition, the new cultural infrastructure is well supported at both the policy and financial levels, and the related needs are expected to continue to flourish after the epidemic. (i) The Office of the Central Office of the Chinese Communist Party and the Office of the State Council have issued an Opinion on Promoting the Implementation of the National Cultural Digitalization Strategy (the Opinion), the fifth point of which clearly states that the development of a new culture of digital cultural consumption, the intensive development of a digital culture of close-to-line integration and online presence, and the new experience of cultural themes such as urban museums, museums and art galleries, among others. (i) the cultural infrastructure is a new foundation that is different from the traditional one and that is guided by a symmetric policy that will itself be strongly supported by the Government at the end of September 2022; (ii) the progress of the State in advancing the use of specific debt, which is expected to be relatively adequate; (ii) the advance of the issuance and use of special bonds, which were issued in 2021 and used, in principle, by the end of May 2021; and (iv) the special bonds issued in December 20222, which will be allocated in principle by the end of September 20222; and, as far as possible in the third quarter.

NFT全称为“Non Fungible Token”(非同质化代币)。本质上是一 种具有唯一性、不可分割性、差异性等特点的区块链链上代币 (不同于同质化代币比特币)。将NFT与标的物进行单一映射,即 可实现标的物的数字化。尽管国内在情绪上对NFT前景较为乐观, 但实际市场规模相比海外仍有较大差距,我们认为主要是不同于 国外,国内NFT二次交易市场受到明显限制所致。2021年8月后海外NFT市场月度销售额及月度销量明显提升,其中月度销售额峰值在2021年8月及2022年1月,销售额 分别为49.2亿美元、46.3亿美元;月度销量峰值在2022年1月,对 应销量为742.5万件;2021年7月-2022年3月全球月度活跃买家数 数明显超过月度活跃卖家数, 2022年4月趋势出现变化,但市场 仍较为火热;全球NFT月度成交均价在2021年8月当月即达到峰值 1120.2美元/件,近段时间基本稳定在400-600美元/件之间。

NFT is known as “ Non Fungible Token&rdquo (non-homogeneous token currency). It is essentially a currency in the chain of blocks with unique, indivisible and differentiated characteristics (as opposed to the homogenous proxy bitcoin). A single map of the NFT and the label, i.e., the digitalization of the subject matter. Despite domestic emotional optimism about the NFT outlook, there is still a large gap between the actual market size and the foreign market, mainly due to the apparent restrictions on the domestic NFT secondary trading market in January 2022. The monthly sales of the offshore NFT market since August 2021 and the monthly sales of the same currency in March 2022 have peaked at $4.92 billion in August 2022 and $4.63 billion in January 2022, while the monthly sales peak is still relatively high at the 11-month peak of the global market.

相比之下,国内NFT市场(尤其是数字藏品)整体上处于小众而火 热的市场格局。其本质差异来自国外已为创作者开放了二级交易 市场,使得NFT相关产品供应量非常充足,属于买方市场;国内 NFT市场基本采用PGC发布模式,供不应求,属于卖方市场。我 们认为国内对防范NFT金融监管的政策态度不会变化,未来二次 交易的形态将与国外有明显差异。根据NFT中文社区,2022年4月 我国共有114家数字藏品发售平台,其中二次交易市场大多通过转 赠功能实现,且转增功能较为严格,如国内用户数最多的鲸探转 赠规则为“数字藏品在购买满180天或受赠满2年后,可转赠给满 十四周岁的实名用户”。目前国内数字藏品发售平台中,具备及不 具备转赠功能的平台占比分别为48%、51%;有及没有二级市场 的平台占比分别为29%、71%。

By contrast, the NFT market as a whole (especially the digital collections) is a small and hot market pattern. The fundamental differences stem from the opening up of secondary trading platforms for creators abroad in April 2022, where NFT-related products are supplied in sufficient quantities and belong to the buyer market; the domestic NFT market is largely based on the PGC publishing model, which is not needed and belongs to the seller market. I believe that the domestic policy attitude to protecting against NFT financial regulation will not change, and that the pattern of future secondary transactions will be significantly different. According to the NFT Chinese community, there are 114 digital distribution platforms in the country in April 2022.

中国与海外监管层面对NFT的态度不同,直接导致中外NFT应用场 景及市场空间产生明显差异,因此不同于市场我们从NFT价值的角 度来拆解NFT项目。我们认为NFT的价值可以对应拆解为使用价值 与交易价值之和,因此在国内交易价值受限的情况下,NFT价值 主要取决于使用价值。从NFT对应标的物可以进一步拆解为实物标 的物及虚拟标的物:

The difference between China and the foreign regulatory level with regard to NFTs directly results in a clear difference in the landscape and market space of the NFT applications outside and out of the centre, and therefore different from the market where we disassemble the NFT project from the angle of NFT values. We believe that NFT values can be decomposed to the sum of the values used and the value of the transaction, so that NFT values depend largely on the value used when the value of domestic transactions is limited. The objects corresponding to NFTs can be further disassembled as physical objects and virtual objects:

(1)实物标的物NFT:作为实物资产确权的数字化标识本身没有 价值,但因为与实物标的物锚定,因此可以作为标的物的流通和 交易的凭证,其使用价值取决于实物标的物的价值,交易价值取 决于实物标的物的价值和价格。相关NFT包括版权、IP所有权本身 (不包括IP衍生品权利,如相关IP卡片等)、实物艺术品、商品 (如茅台)。

(1) The physical subject matter NFT: The digitalized identification as a right to ascertain physical assets has no value per se, but because it is anchored to the physical subject matter, it can be used as evidence of the movement and trade of the subject matter, the value of which depends on the value of the physical subject matter and the value and price of the physical subject matter. The relevant NFT includes copyright, IP ownership per se (excluding IP derivative rights, e.g. related IP cards, etc.), physical works of art, commodities (e.g. poo-tao).

(2)虚拟标的物NFT:NFT本身与虚拟标的物互为前提,属于同 一硬币的两面,即NFT系虚拟资产本身。该类NFT的使用价值取决 于用户主观意愿,交易价值取决于交易需求(受众)规模的大 小。相关NFT包括数字藏品、IP衍生品(如IP虚拟形象、球星卡 等)、游戏虚拟道具。

(2) The virtual target NFT: NFT itself and the virtual target are premised on two sides of the same coin, that is, the NFT is the virtual asset itself. The value of the use of NFT in this category depends on the subjective will of the user, and the value of the transaction depends on the size of the transaction demand (the audience). The relevant NFTs include digital collections, IP derivatives (e.g. IP virtual images, ball cards, etc.), and game virtual props.

NFT市场与二次交易的开发程度高度相关,建议关注国内相关政策 的推进及二次交易开放进程的推进,关注方向现阶段主要为数字藏品,未来可关注游戏道具的NFT化,因为相比数字藏品,游戏道 具具备较高的使用价值。

The NFT market is highly relevant to the extent to which secondary transactions are developed, and it is recommended that attention be given to the advancement of domestic policies and the opening up of secondary transactions. The focus at this stage is mainly on digital collections, and that future attention be given to the NFTization of gaming props, which have a higher use value than digitized collections.

我们认为虚拟数字人狭义上指具备“人”特征的虚拟形象(技术 角度),广义上指包含社交关系、经济关系、互动关系的虚拟身份 (社会角度)。目前主流主题性机会多集中于狭义上的定义,广义 上的定义涉及到复杂的社会性,想象空间更大但实现难度已相应 匹配。

In our view, virtual digital individuals refer in the narrow sense to having & ldquao; people & & rdquao; virtual images of characteristics (technical angles) and, in the broad sense, virtual identities that encompass social, economic, and interactive relationships (social perspective). At present, mainstream subject matter opportunities are more concentrated on a narrow definition, which involves complex socialities, and imagine greater space but the corresponding difficulty of achieving it is matched.

(1)从技术层面看,虚拟数字人可以理解为是通过计算机图形 学、语音合成技术、 深度学习、类脑科学、生物科技、计算科学 等聚合科技创设,并具 有“人”的外观、行为、甚至思想(价值观) 的可交互的虚拟形象。

(1) At the technical level, virtual digitalists can be understood as having an interactive virtual image of their appearance, behaviour, and even ideas (values), created by condensed technologies such as computer graphics, speech synthesis technology, in-depth learning, cerebral science, biotech, computing science, etc.

(2)从社会层面看,聚合科技带来语义传播与无障碍传播的新空 间,由此诞生的 虚拟数字人将作为新媒介角色,广泛应用在元宇 宙新生态中,担任着信息制造、传递的责任, 是元宇宙中“人” 与“人”、“人”与事物或事物与事物之间产生联系或发生孪生关 系的新介质。

(2) At the social level, convergence technology brings in new spaces for semantic and barrier-free communication, and the virtual digital person that emerges from it will serve as a new medium that will be widely used in the new medieval life of the Yuan, as the responsibility for the creation and transmission of information & ldquao; human & rdquao; & ldquao; & & rdquao; & rdquao; & rdquao; & & rdquao; new media that have a connection or a relationship between things or things and things.

虚拟偶像、虚拟主播、虚拟员工是当前虚拟数字人产业中应用最 多、商业化价值最高的三个类型,因此2022年主题性机会应主要 围绕这三点进行布局。根据《中国虚拟数字人影响力指数报告 (2021年度)》,用户最关注的特征调研中:60%以上的用户最关注虚拟偶像的 是“外形好”、“作品好”;66%的用户关注虚拟主播 的“主持有特点”,69%的用户在意主播的“特色性格、 人设”; 虚拟员工最被在意的是服务性,50%的用户认为“技术强”、“跨 界合作与服务”很重要。调研同时显 示,80%的用户目前愿意为 虚拟偶像的花费在千元以下,“隐私安全”是用户对虚拟数字人最 大的担忧。

Virtual icons, virtual anchors, virtual employees are the three most applied and commercialized types in the current virtual digital industry, so thematic opportunities in 2022 should be structured around these three points. According to the China Virtual Digital Impact Index report (2021), users are most interested in: “ ” ” “ “ ” ” ” “ 66% of users are concerned with virtual anchors; ” & & service; & & & rdquo; & & & & rdquo; and it is important that at the same time, 80% of users are interested in the service, 50% of users are now thinking that “ technology & & & & & Qu; & & & D; & Intv; & & D; & D; &l; & D; &l; & D; and & D;


(本文仅供参考,不代表我们的任何投资建议。如需使用相关信息,请参阅报告原文。)

(This document is for information purposes only and does not represent any of our investment proposals. For relevant information, please refer to the original version of the report.

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