从元宇宙到大模型，亏光近五百亿的商汤何时盈利？

来源：新经济观察团_新锐财金

Source: New Economic Observation Mission _ New Expeditions

2021年，商汤科技凭借在“元宇宙”概念上的前瞻布局风光上市，一度成为市场焦点。IPO时，商汤市值高达1400亿港元，最高市值达到3000亿港元。

At the time of IPO, the market value was HK$140 billion, with a maximum market value of HK$300 billion.

然而，伴随元宇宙热度衰减，面对股价波动与业绩压力，商汤科技又将目光投向了炙手可热的“大模型”领域，力图通过接连发布的一系列大模型技术及应用，重燃市场热情。

, however, coupled with the decline of the meta-cosmos heat, and in the face of stock price fluctuations and performance pressures, merchants and technology have turned their eyes to the hot "big model" field, trying to rekindle market enthusiasm through a series of large model technologies and applications that have been published consecutively.

不过，一系列动作似乎并未即刻转化为拉动股价增长的长效动力，涨停昙花一现之后，反而引发了市场更多的质疑：在追逐科技潮流的道路上，商汤科技是否又一次踏入了“概念大于实质”的陷阱？其股价的微妙走势，或许正折射出市场对于公司持续盈利能力与未来方向的深切忧虑。

, however, a series of actions that do not appear to have immediately translated into a long-lived drive to boost stock price growth, but rather into more market questioning: , on the road to the technological tide, is commerce and soup once again in the trap of “conceptual over substance? The subtle movement of its stock prices may reflect the market's deep concern about the company's continued profitability and future direction.

01

五年持续亏损，烧光近500亿元

five years of continuous loss, burning close to $50 billion /font >

2021年曾被称为元宇宙元年。彼时的全球互联网大厂加速布局，赛道争夺战如火如荼。在上市前完成12轮融资、募资总额超过52亿美金的商汤科技，自然不会放过吸引资本眼球的机会。

"font" 2021, once known as the Centauri. Global Internet plants speed up the layout and race competition. 12 rounds of financing, raising more than $5.2 billion in commercial soup technology before going to the market, will certainly not miss the opportunity to attract capital eye.

在招股书里，商汤超过40次提到了“元宇宙”概念。商汤科技还称，其旗下的虚实融合平台SenseMARS更是“亚洲最大的元宇宙赋能平台之一”。

refers to the concept of the metacosystem more than 40 times in his collection book.

然而，依托“元宇宙”概念上市以来，商汤科技的日子并不好过。除了收入连年下滑，公司的亏损也并无明显好转。

, however, business and technology have not been well off since the concept of the Woncosmos was introduced. There has been no significant improvement in the company's losses, except for the year-on-year decline in income.

现阶段，商汤科技有三大业务板块划分，分别是生成式AI、传统AI和智能汽车。按照官方给出的解释，生成式AI、传统AI、智能汽车分别对应着提供生成式AI的模型训练、微调及推理服务业务，传统智慧城市、智慧商业与智慧生活的非生成式AI业务，以及原智能汽车业务。

At this stage, there are three main lines of business for commercial and industrial technology: , A/font>, traditional AI, and smart cars. In accordance with official explanations, the generator AI, traditional AI, and smart cars correspond to model training, fine-tuning and reasoning services for the provision of the generator AI, traditional smart cities, non-generative AI operations for intelligent business and intellectual life, and the original smart car business.

而这样的业务划分，已经是商汤科技业务重组近一年的成果。从2023年的业绩状况来看，此次重组的成效并不显著，或者说，通过重组来提振业绩的预想，目前仍然尚未实现。根据最新财报数据显示，2023年商汤科技实现全年营收34.06亿元，同比减少10.6%。

This division of business has been the result of a restructuring of business and technology for almost a year. In 2023, the results of this restructuring were not significant, or the expectation of boosting performance through restructuring has not yet materialized. According to the latest financial data, the year 2023 recorded a total annual revenue of $3.406 billion, a 10.6 per cent decrease. /font

对于收入下滑一事，商汤科技董事长兼CEO徐立在业绩发布会上表示，全年收入的下降主要是因为产业转型，并且主动收缩了传统AI业务中智慧城市相关的业务。

With regard to the decline in income, the Chairman of Business and Technology and CEO Seo-Li stated at the performance launch that the decline in income throughout the year was mainly due to industrial transformation and the proactive contraction of smart city-related business in traditional AI operations.

根据财报内容，其中智慧城市收入作为主营业务，营收占比在近年来呈现逐年下滑态势。2021年上半年，这部分营收在总收入中的占比超过47%，到了2022年，这部分收入占总收入比例下滑至约30%，而到2023年，这一数据已经降低到10%以内。

与智慧城市收入比例逐年下滑呈现鲜明对比的，则是被视作重点发展方向的生成式AI。2023年该板块实现收入11.84亿元，占总收入的34.8%，相较2022年仅占10.4%的3.95亿元，增长了199.9%。

In contrast to the annual decline in the proportion of smart urban incomes,

通过主营业务占比的变动，能够看出商汤科技对于生成式AI正寄予厚望。徐立也对此表示，“生成式AI业务的增长，得益于各行各业对大模型的训练和推理的广泛需求，这预示着中国硬科技投资的新周期正式开启。”并推测这部分业务将在2024年持续保持高速增长。

shows, through changes in the share of the main business, that there are high expectations for the generation AI. Xu Li also said, “The growth of the generation AI business, thanks to the extensive demand from industries for training and reasoning on large models, augurs well for the opening of a new cycle of hard technology investment in China.” It is assumed that this sector will continue to grow at a high rate in 2024.

然而主营业务的变动，并未给公司盈利能力带来新的增长。根据财报数据，2023年，商汤科技录得年度亏损64.94亿元，同比扩大6.6%。而2019-2023年，商汤科技分别录得年度亏损49.68亿元、121.58亿元、171.77亿元、60.93亿元和64.9亿元，五年累计亏损已经达到468.91亿元。

However, changes in the main business have not led to a new increase in the company's profitability. According to the financial report, in 2023, the annual losses recorded by the company were $6,494 million, an increase of 6.6 per cent, while in 2019-2023, the annual losses recorded by the company were $4,968 million, $12,158 million, $17,177 million, $6,093 million and $6,499 million, respectively.

在连年亏损、亟待挖掘新增长点之下，商汤科技进军生成式AI赛道几乎是必然之路。

is almost inevitable in the run-up to , which has lost several years and is in urgent need of new growth points.

然而，开发新的业务，也令商汤科技始终陷在亏损旋涡中无法自拔，公司毛利率也不断下滑。

, however, the development of new business also keeps the business soup technology stuck in a loss vortex and the company's Māori rate is declining.

为了开辟新的经济增长点，商汤科技的业务板块越划越多。比如，在原本已很广泛的智慧商业、智慧城市、智慧生活和智慧汽车四大业务基础上增添了硬件业务——AI传感器、AI芯片、AI机器人等。随着业务进一步分散，企业投入增大，商汤科技毛利率迎来大幅下降，从2022年的66.8%降至2023年的44.1%，下降幅度高达约32%。

In order to open up new economic growth points,

尽管商汤科技在人工智能领域的研发投入巨大且技术创新不断，但成果转化与市场需求之间的对接不足，直接导致了其财务表现不佳。行业内竞争加剧，加之全球经济环境的不确定性，使得依赖新技术突破实现扭亏为盈的任务更为艰巨。

, despite the huge investment in research and development and technological innovation in the area of artificial intelligence, is directly responsible for poor financial performance due to insufficient correlation between the transformation of results and market demand. Increased intra-industry competition, coupled with the uncertainty of the global economic environment, makes it more difficult to rely on new technologies to break through to make gains.

而被视作公司未来增长驱动力的生成式AI技术，目前在商业化进程中遭遇阻碍，盈利前景并不明朗。如果该核心技术板块无法在短时间内实现有效盈利，商汤科技的经营环境将可能进一步恶化，面临更加严峻的市场挑战和财务压力。

, which is seen as the driving force behind the company's future growth, is currently hampered by commercialization, and the prospects for profitability are uncertain. If the core technology panel is not able to make an effective profit in a short period of time, the business environment for commerce and technology will likely deteriorate further, facing even greater market challenges and financial pressures.

02

曾被灰熊做空，应收账款受质疑

was emptied by a grizzly bear and the accounts receivable were questioned

就在商汤科技亏损缠身的同时，公司还有另一桩阴云笼罩：庞大的应收账款。2023年11月28日，美国做空机构灰熊对商汤科技发起聚集，针对后者在应收账款上的问题提出质疑。根据灰熊所述，商汤科技正在通过高度可疑的收入循环的方式来人为地夸大收入，大量（且不断增长的）应收账款最好的情况是表明公司无法收回付款，最坏的情况是虚假收入。

On November 28, 2023, the U.S. Air Agency Grizzards launched a collection to question the latter's accounts receivable. According to the grizzly bears, they are artificially exaggerating their revenues through a highly suspicious revenue cycle, and the best (and growing) accounts receivable is to show that the company is unable to recover its payments and, worst of all, false.

在此之前，灰熊也曾针对58同城、斗鱼、跟谁学、蔚来汽车等中概股进行过做空操作，此次商汤科技中招，也在意料之中。

Prior to this, the grizzly bear had carried out an aerial operation against 58 compatriots, fish fights, learners, cars, etc. >.

做空报告显示，商汤科技将自己描述为“领先的人工智能软件公司”，但是，灰熊认为在这里人工智能代表人工膨胀的收入。进而，灰熊认为，商汤科技已经走上了财务操纵的道路，通过收入循环方式，并且没有披露公司高管拥有和控制的一系列关联方公司。但收入循环实际上并不能改善现金流。商汤科技仍然发现自己每年亏损数十亿元。

灰熊进一步对商汤科技伪造收入进行了展开例证。商汤科技于2019年11月6日与江苏精仪达科技有限公司（以下简称“精仪达”）签订了总价值1024.5万元的产品清单（即东芝移动硬盘、三星固态硬盘等）的采购协议，并于同年11月17日向精仪达汇款1024.5万元。精仪达于2019年11月4日与上海易华电子商务有限公司（以下简称“易华电子”）签订产品购销合同，向易华电子采购基本相同的产品，总金额为1028.9万元。2019年11月18日，精仪达向易华电子汇款1028.9万元（同日易华电子向精仪达退回4.4万元，所以净汇款为1024.5万元）。同时，易华电子还于2019年11月6日与商汤科技签订了货物采购协议，该协议项下的产品几乎和商汤科技据称要从精仪达购买的产品一致，除了某些商汤科技的软件。

The grizzly bear further illustrated the counterfeiting of revenues from commercial soup technology. On 6 November 2019, it signed a purchase and sale contract with Eihua Electronics Co. Ltd. (hereinafter “Eihua Electronics”) to purchase essentially the same products from Eihua, for a total amount of $10,289,000. On 18 November 2019, Eiyoda transferred $10,289,000 to Eihua Electronics (a return of $44,000 to Eihua Electronics from Japan, so that the net transfer was $10,245,000). At the same time, Eihua Electronics Co. Ltd. (hereinafter “Eihua Electronics”), on 6 November 2019, it entered into a purchase and sale contract with Comi-Tech, which resulted in a purchase agreement for goods totalling $10,289,000.

灰熊认为，通过上述循环贸易，商汤科技可以人为地夸大其报告的收入。

the grizzly thought that, through the above cycle of trade, merchant soup technology could artificially overstate its reported revenues.

此外，灰熊还怀疑商汤科技将某类交易确认为收入，制造虚假发票/收入。蓝鲸财经查阅裁判文书网发现，涉事的新泽尔抗辩双方为民间借贷关系，但并未提交充分的证据予以佐证，同时，北京市丰台区人民法院认为长虹佳华按约履行了供货义务。

In addition, grizzly bears suspect that merchant soup technology recognizes certain types of transactions as revenue and creates false invoices/revenues.

灰熊还披露了商汤科技的高级职员关联公司，以此产生利用体外公司虚增营收的质疑，但并未对此提供真实的例证。

grizzly also discloses senior staff association companies in commercial soup technology as a means of creating doubts about the use of in vitro companies for surging revenue, but does not provide a true example of this.

尽管商汤科技在第一时间对此否认，并称该报告并无依据，且包含无根据的推测及误导性结论和诠释。其亦缺乏对公司业务模式及财务报告结构的基本理解，缺乏对公司公开信息的全面解读。

, despite a first-time denial of this, claims that the report is unfounded and contains unfounded assumptions and misleading conclusions and interpretations. It also lacks a basic understanding of the company's business model and financial reporting structure and a comprehensive interpretation of the company's public information.

截至2023年结束，商汤科技的应收账款表现并无明显好转。数据显示，2021年商汤科技应收账款减值拨备达到9.8亿元，2022年这一数值增加至25.8亿元，近几年应收账款不断扩大。到2023年，商汤科技应收账款累计减值损失高达42亿元，仅2023年就新增16亿元，减值损失率高达53%。

By the end of 2023, there had been no significant improvement in the accounts receivable for business and technology. The data show that in 2021, the amount for business and technology receivables had been reduced to $980 million, in 2022 to $2.580 billion and in recent years accounts receivable had increased. By 2023, the accumulated impairment loss on business and technology receivables had been as high as $4.2 billion, with a new $1.6 billion in 2023 alone and a 53 per cent impairment rate.

显而易见，商汤科技的账款难以回收被计提减值的问题已经持续多年，并且对其传统业务造成不小的资产风险。而生成式AI业务的逐渐增长，能否挽回相应损失，目前还没有明确迹象。

makes it clear that the difficulty of recovering the money from Combine and Technology has persisted for many years with the issue of impairment ofont < > and poses a significant asset risk to its traditional business. There is no clear indication that the incremental growth of Generating AI operations will recover the corresponding losses.

03

生成式AI能否救商汤？

Can I save the soup from the strong?

对于商汤科技来说，不论是收入下滑还是亏损状态，亦或是不断增长的应收账款都非一日之功。对公司来说，只有尽快寻找到新的经济增长点，才有望将公司从旋涡中拯救出来。

进入2024年，大模型和生成式AI正在以前所未有的速度崛起，并且重新定义了技术和商业竞争的边界。相关公司因此前仆后继，展开了新的探索与追逐。

In 2024, big models and generation AIs were rising at an unprecedented rate and redefined the boundaries of technology and commercial competition. As a result, the companies in question followed up with new explorations and pursuits.

而在人工智能领域，又绕不开一家美国人工智能研究公司——OpenAI。这家诞生于2015年的新兴科技公司，凭借一系列生成式AI产品，如GPT系列，在全球内容创作行业卷起新的风暴，被誉为人工智能发展进程中的“里程碑”。OpenAI的估值也因此水涨船高，已达到近1000亿美元。

, in the area of artificial intelligence, also cannot bypass OpenAI, an American company for artificial intelligence research. The emerging technology company, born in 2015, with a new storm in the global content creation industry, with a series of producing AI products, such as the GPT series, has been hailed as a “milestone” in the process of artificial intelligence development. OpenAI's valuations have also increased, reaching nearly $100 billion.

而纵观商汤科技的发展历程，其实与OpenAI有很多相似之处。商汤科技诞生于2014年，比OpenAI还要再早一年。而商汤科技也是通过在计算机视觉、深度学习等方面的深厚技术积累，不断推动技术创新，其成长路径基本复刻了OpenAI的模板，但往往要比OpenAI略晚一步。

, looking at the evolution of technology in commerce, there are many similarities with OpenAI. Soup technology was born in 2014, one year earlier than OpenAI. Soup technology is also driving technological innovation through a deep accumulation of technology in computer visualization, depth learning, and its growth path is basically re-engaging the OpenAI template, but it is often a little later than OpenAI.

今年4月，商汤科技发布了“日日新SenseNova 4.0”，在知识覆盖、推理能力、长文本理解、数字推理以及代码生成方面实现了全面升级，同时，该模型还引入了支持跨模态交互的能力。

In April of this year, Business and Technology released “Sensenova 4.0 of the New Sunshine”, which resulted in an overall upgrading of knowledge coverage, reasoning, long text understanding, digital reasoning and code generation, while the model also introduced the ability to support cross-model interactions.

但在不断追赶OpenAI的同时，商汤科技是否得到了同样的回报呢？单从商业化落地成果来看，商汤科技的生成式AI收入并不乐观。以2023年为例，商汤科技营收只有4.7亿美元，是OpenAI（16亿美元）的三分之一。而具体到生成式AI收入，商汤科技只有1.7亿美元，约为OpenAI的十分之一。

, but as we keep catching up with OpenAI, do business soup technology get the same return? From commercial landings alone, business soup technology generation AI income is not optimistic. In 2023, for example, it was only $470 million, or one third of OpenAI ($1.6 billion). And specifically, generation AI income, for business soup technology, it is only $170 million, or about one tenth of OpenAI's.

至于二者的估值差距，则更加巨大。商汤科技目前市值约为462亿港元，不到60亿美元，与OpenAI近千亿美元的市值相比，不过九牛一毛。

The difference between the two valuations is even greater. The market value of both is currently approximately HK$46.2 billion, less than US$6 billion, compared to the market value of OpenAI, which is almost US$100 billion, but not a dime.

更严峻的是，即便强大如OpenAI，在商业化上仍需时日。公开资料显示，2022年OpenAI亏损数额已达到5.4亿美元，虽然2023年数据尚未公布，但显然距离盈利仍然遥遥无期。

Even worse, even stronger than OpenAI, it still takes time to commercialize. Public information shows that OpenAI lost $540 million in 2022. Although data for 2023 have not yet been published, it is clear that profits are far from being made.

对于生成式AI的未来，华安证券券商研报显示，生成式AI处于初级阶段，以搜索领域为例，生成式AI想要实现替代，仍需要先达到一定程度的规模优势（包括预训练数据集规模、用户反馈量）之后，才有机会威胁到搜索引擎的生存地位。

For the future of Generating AI, shows that generating AI is at an early stage, using the search field as an example, and that replacing it requires a certain level of size (including size of pre-training data sets, user feedback) before there is an opportunity to threaten the viability of the search engine.

摩根大通在此前发布的AIGC研报中也指出，中国生成式AI发展处于早期阶段，由于AI可落地的场景众多，因此无论是巨头企业还是初创公司所需面对的风险大小或有所不同。

Morgan Chase also pointed out in the earlier AGC AGC >font study that Chinese-generated AI development was at an early stage and that, given the large number of scenarios where AI could be located, the risks to be faced by both giants and start-ups were large or different.

从资本市场上来看，投资人早已用脚投票。去年七月，原商汤科技大股东阿里巴巴全资子公司Taobao Holding Limited清空商汤的所有B类股份，在此次清仓前，阿里巴巴已多次减持套现。而另一大股东软银在解禁后多次减持。

says that investors have already voted with their feet on the capital market. Last July, Taibao Holding Limited, the owner of the former owner of Yutsu Technology, emptied all stocks of commercial soup in class B. Alibaba had been cut off several times before the clearing. Another major shareholder, font, font > , was cut off several times after the release.

同时，在创新大模型“日日新SenseNova 5.0”发布一个多月后，商汤科技的股价并未如期迎来春天。尽管初期因大模型发布带来的正面影响，其股价一度飙涨超过30%，并触发停牌。但截至6月19日发稿前，其股价位1.38港元，总市值大幅缩水至462亿元左右，较发行时市值缩水近70%，较最高市值则缩水近85%。

At the same time, more than a month after the launch of the Big Innovation Model “Sensenova 5.0 in Sunshine”, the stock price of commercial soup technology was not on schedule for spring. Despite the initial positive effects of the large model release, the stock price rose by more than 30% and triggered the suspension of cards. However, as of 19 June, its stock price stood at HK$1.38, with a sharp reduction in the total market value to around $46.2 billion, nearly 70% compared to the market value at the time of issuance, and nearly 85% compared to the highest market value.

这不仅抹去了先前的涨幅，更让市场对商汤科技的未来增长潜力和盈利能力再生疑虑，其股价疲软表现成了外界审视公司整体运营与市场定位问题的一个鲜明注脚。

not only erases the previous increase, but adds to the market's doubts about the future growth potential and profitability of business and soup technology, and its weak stock prices have become a striking feature of the external scrutiny of corporate operations as a whole and market positioning.

面对高昂的研发成本、持续的亏损现状，以及外部环境的不确定因素，商汤科技如何在保持技术创新的同时，找到一条通往盈利的道路，成为其不得不面对的命题。

Faced with high R & D costs, ongoing losses and uncertainties in the external environment,

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