加密市场“618”大促，山寨币前景仍存？

618这一天通常被认为是大型“促销”活动，然而，加密货币市场却显示出持续的颓势。

The day 618 is usually considered to be a large “/span > promotion > ; however, the crypto-currency market shows continued decline.

今天早些时候，比特币价格短线跌破了65000美元，同时以太坊和其他许多主流及山寨币也再次集体下跌。在欧Yi OKX 的实时行情界面上，可以看到市场处于大幅下跌的状态，形容为“血流成河”。

Earlier today, Bitcoin fell short of $65,000, and then went down collectively in Taiku and many other mainstream and mountain coins. On the EuroYi OKX real-time interface, it can be seen that the market is in a state of sharp decline, described as “hide streaming”.

• - ETH 最低下跌至3350 USDT，目前报价为3402.44 USDT，24小时跌幅达到5.64%。

  -ETH had the lowest drop to 3350 USDT, with a current offer of 3402.44 USDT, with a 24-hour drop of 5.64 per cent.

• - SOL 最低下跌至127.22 USDT，目前报价为132.03 USDT，24小时跌幅高达10.98%。

  -SOL had the lowest drop to 127.22 USDT, with a current offer of 132.03 USDT, with a 24-hour drop of 10.98 per cent.

• - PEPE 最低下跌至0.000009573 USDT，目前报价为0.00001013 USDT，24小时跌幅为16.18%。

  - PEPE dropped to 0.00009573 USDT, with a current offer of 0.00001013 USDT, with a decline of 16.18 per cent in 24 hours.

• - OP 最低下跌至1.67 USDT，目前报价为1.74 USDT，24小时跌幅为15.85%。

  -OP had the lowest drop to 1.67 USDT, with a current offer of 1.74 USDT and a decline of 15.85 per cent in 24 hours.

• - STRK 最低下跌至0.6614 USDT，目前报价为0.71 USDT，24小时跌幅达到22.62%。

  - STRK lowest down to 0.6614 USDT, with a current offer of 0.71 USDT with a 24-hour drop of 22.62%.

• - TIA 最低下跌至6.007 USDT，目前报价为6.38 USDT，24小时跌幅为21.04%。

  -TIA drops to 6.007 USDT, with a current offer of 6.38 USDT and a 24-hour drop of 21.04 per cent.

此外，新上市的 ZK 也遭受重创，一度跌破0.2 USDT，最低下跌至0.1906 USDT，目前报价为0.1935 USDT，24小时跌幅高达36.4%（基于盘前市场价格计算）。市场情况如此动荡，一些用户甚至用调侃的语气称呼 ZK 为“Endgame”。这种大幅下跌的现象反映了当前市场的极度不确定性和投资者情绪的波动性。

In addition, the newly listed ZK was hit hard, once falling by 0.2 USDT, down to 0.196 USDT, with a current offer of 0.1935 USDT, with a 24-hour drop of up to 36.4% (based on pre-drive market prices). The market situation in is so volatile that some users even refer to ZK as “Endgame” in the tone of tone. This dramatic decline reflects the extreme uncertainty in the current market and the volatility of investor sentiment.

由于整体市场下挫，加密货币总市值继续下滑。根据CoinGecko的数据，当前加密货币总市值已降至2.46万亿美元，24小时内下跌了4.5%。

The total market value of encrypted currencies continues to decline as a result of the overall market setback. According to CoinGecko, the current total market value of encrypted currencies has fallen to $246 trillion, a drop of 4.5 per cent in 24 hours.

在衍生品交易方面，Coinglass的数据显示，仅过去1小时内全网爆仓金额就达到了1.78亿美元，其中大部分是由多头仓位引发的，总额高达1.73亿美元。就币种而言，BTC和ETH罕见地被其他币种超越，后者以4120万美元的金额高居榜首。

With regard to derivatives transactions, Coinglass' data show that in the last 1 hour alone, $178 million was spent in a full-grid explosion, mostly caused by multiple warehouses, amounting to $173 million . In terms of currency, BTC and ETH were rarely overstepped by other currencies, the latter ranked highest at $41.2 million.

回顾本轮牛市的整体趋势变化，尽管比特币曾一度强势刷新历史高点，但除了少数像 meme 等板块外，山寨币始终未能如预期般表现出色。

reviews the overall trend of the city and, although Bitcoin was once strong enough to refresh its historical heights, with the exception of a few pieces like meme, the mountain coins have never been as good as expected.

特别是自从比特币从3月开始进入调整阶段以来，山寨币市场更是一蹶不振。ORDI、OP、ARB、TIA 等多个热门山寨币的累计跌幅甚至超过了70%。

Especially since Bitcoin entered the adjustment phase in March, the market has been weak. Ordi, OP, ARB, TIA, among others, has seen a cumulative decline of more than 70%.

当前市场情况显示，山寨币的走势似乎已经脱离了比特币和以太坊的影响。鉴于大多数零散投资者的仓位主要集中在山寨币上，这导致许多人感叹：“看着比特币不断刷新新高，自己的投资却一直在缩水。”

As the current market situation shows, appears to have moved away from the influence of Bitcoin and Etheria . Given that most of the scattered investors' warehouses are concentrated mainly on mountain currency, this has led many people to wonder, "Looking at Bitcoin's new heights, their investments have been shrunk."

造成山寨币走势脱钩的主要原因包括以下几点：

the main reasons for the decoupling of the mountain currency include the following:

1. ETF 获批带来的流动性变化：ETF 的批准改变了资金流动的模式。以往，增量资金通常通过“稳定币 → 比特币、以太坊 → 山寨币”的路径进入市场。然而，现在来自传统市场的资金更倾向于通过ETF直接投资比特币，导致资金传导链条中断，使得山寨币市场的流动性变得稀缺。

In the past, incremental funds used to enter the market through the “Stabilization Currency, Bitcoin, Etheria, Mountain Coin.” However, funds from traditional markets now tend to invest directly in Bitcoin through the ETF, leading to the interruption of the money transmission chain, making the market liquidity scarce.

2. VC 代币持续解锁导致的抛压：许多项目的风险投资（VC）代币持续解锁，这导致市场上持续的卖压。尽管部分山寨币价格持续下跌，但流通市值却在不断增加，形成了供大于求的市场格局。

2. VC coins keep unlocking. Risk investments (VCs) in many projects keep unlocking, which leads to continued market pressure. The market value of circulation is increasing, and there is a market pattern in which supply is greater than demand, despite the constant decline in the price of some of the bounties.

3. 天价开盘新项目的吸血效应：一系列高调的新项目如 io.net、ZKsync、LayerZero、Blast 等，它们在上线时吸收了市场中剩余的流动性。这些项目往往以数十亿美元的市值开始交易，进一步加剧了山寨币市场的流动性匮乏。

3. Blood-smoking effects of new projects at the price of God: A series of new high-profile projects, such as io.net, ZKsync, LayerZero, Blast, etc., absorb the remaining liquidity in the market when they go online. These projects often start trading with billions of dollars in market value, further exacerbating the lack of liquidity in the mountain currency market.

综上所述，这些因素共同作用，导致了山寨币与比特币、以太坊的走势脱钩，使得山寨币市场面临着流动性不足和持续的抛售压力。

In summary, the combination of these factors has led to the decoupling of the mountain coins from the movement of Bitcoin and Ether, exposing the market to insufficient liquidity and persistent selling pressures.

在当前的市场低迷时期，关于山寨币未来走势的预测出现了分歧，不同机构甚至提出了截然相反的观点。

During the current period of market malaise, the predictions of the future movement of the bounties were divided, and the opposite view was even put forward by different institutions.

加密货币对冲基金 Lekker Capital 的创始人Quinn Thompson 直接建议投资者现在不要考虑投资山寨币。

Quinn Thompson, founder of the encrypted currency hedge fund Lekker Capital, directly advised investors not to consider investing in mountain coins now.

Thompson 指出了市场不稳定的几个指标，包括高杠杆和未平仓合约、缺乏恐慌性购买以及稳定币供应的停滞。他认为，市场正面临着越来越大的抛售压力，尤其是来自需要筹集资金的风险投资基金的抛售。这种情况下，再加上夏季交易量较低，使得山寨币难以获得资金流入。

Thompson points out several indicators of market instability, including high leverage and unsettled contracts, lack of panic purchasing and stagnation in stabilizing the supply of currency. He argues that markets are facing increasing sales pressures, especially from venture capital funds that need to raise funds. This, coupled with the low volume of transactions in the summer, makes it difficult to obtain capital inflows.

DWF Labs 联合创始人 Andrei Grachev 则预计未来几个月内山寨币可能会迎来一波牛市，但前提是比特币能够保持稳定。

And Andrei Grachev, co-founder of the DWF Labs, expects that in the coming months, the mountain mounds may reach a wave of cattle, provided that Bitcoin remains stable. /em

Grachev 表示，自2024年3月以来，山寨币的谷歌搜索量一直在下降。他认为，稳定的比特币价格可以为整个市场注入信心，尽管比特币本身不太可能再次出现50倍的增长，但山寨币可能会。如果比特币价格能够保持稳定，预计未来几个月内山寨币可能会迎来一波牛市。

Grachev states that Google searches for bogus coins have been declining since March 2024. He believes that stable bitcoin prices can instil confidence in the market as a whole, although Bitcoin itself is unlikely to grow 50 times more, but it may. If bitcoin prices remain stable, it is expected that bogus coins may reach a wave of cattle in the coming months.

今天早上的短线下跌之后，Deribit 亚太区商务负责人林晨在 X 披露了一笔重要的大宗期权成交情况：一位巨鲸卖出了到期日为7月底的7万美元的看涨期权，并同时买入了到年底的7万美元的看涨期权，总共涉及100个比特币，交易金额为88.3万美元。

根据Deribit亚太区商务负责人林晨的解释，上述交易表明这位巨鲸目前持有的观点是“短期看跌、长期看涨”。这意味着他认为在暑期放假期间市场可能会下跌，但预计年底会迎来一波大行情，使比特币价格再次突破7万美元。

According to Lin Morning, the business director of Deribit Asia Pacific, the transaction indicates that the giant whale now holds the view of “short-term slump, long-term upswing.” This means that he believes the market may fall during summer vacation, but is expected to see a wave of big events at the end of the year, which will allow Bitcoin to break out again by $70 million.

然而，考虑到目前山寨币与比特币的脱钩现象，这些预测难以直接适用于山寨币。

However, given the current decoupling of mountain coins from bitcoin, these predictions are difficult to apply directly to mountain coins.

因此，对于当前的操作建议，我们唯一有效的建议是不要对山寨币进行高杠杆交易，控制风险，避免冲动行为。