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4月初，由于比特币戏剧性的暴涨与暴跌行情，虚拟货币引起更多人群的关注。国内方面，包括CCTV在内多家权威媒体的频繁报道，亦导致有关虚拟货币的热烈讨论。此后，虚拟货币领域一直暗潮涌动。短短的一个月之内，若干关于虚拟货币的重要事件发生，使得我们需要重新考虑虚拟货币进入现实世界的可能性。 At the beginning of April, eBay的CEO约翰·多纳霍(John Donahoe)亦在5月初作出类似表态。事实上领投BitPay的Founders基金即由“PayPal帮”创建。 Later in April, President Paypal David Marcus made a statement expressing the great interest of Bitcoin and claiming that careful consideration was being given to including it in future strategies. , John Donahue, who made a similar statement in early May. 5月9日，主要提供比特币的电子钱包服务的公司Coinbase获得500万美元的投资，成为第一个完成A轮融资的比特币公司。 On 9 May, Coinbase, a company primarily providing Bitcoin's electronic wallet services, received an investment of $5 million, making it the first Bitcoin to complete a round of A financing. 5月20日，又一提供比特币的电子钱包服务的公司BitPay获得200万美元的投资。 On 20 May, Bitpay, another company providing Bitcoin's electronic wallet service, received $2 million in investment. 2. Ripple的崛起 2. Ripple's Rise 在4月份比特币行情所引发的热烈讨论中，一些经济学家提到了虚拟货币市场的一颗新星：Ripple。Ripple具有全面超越比特币的野心，其规划功能已经构成了一个基本完整的、去中心化的、全货币的金融体系。Ripple网络的基础货币是纯虚拟的XRP。 In a lively debate about the Bitcoin deal in April, some economists referred to a new star in the virtual currency market: Ripple. Ripple, with its ambition to go beyond bitcoin in all its aspects, has become a largely complete, decentralized, all-currency financial system. The Ripple network is based on a purely virtual XRP. 4月10日，OpenCoin公司接受若干著名VC的投资，成为虚拟货币领域的明星公司。5月15日，OpenCoin公司CEO接受美国国家公司CNBC的采访，声称世界需要像OpenCoin这样的虚拟货币公司和免费的支付系统。此次访谈极为精彩，引发美国民众涌入Ripple，导致XRP的价格再次上扬，目前仍维持在12分人民币的高位。 On May 15, OpenCoin’s CEO gave an interview to the US national company CNBC, claiming that the world needed a virtual money company like OpenCoin and a free payment system. The interview was excellent, and triggered an influx of American citizens into Ripple, leading to another rise in the price of XRP, which is still high at 12 yuan. Chris Larsen称，截止五月中旬，XRP的流出量已经达到12亿（包括免费派送和发售给网关的）。 Chris Larsen stated that by mid-May XRP outflows had reached 1.2 billion (including free distribution and distribution to gateways). 3. 亚马逊杀入虚拟货币市场 3. Amazons hit the virtual currency market 5月13日，电子商务巨头亚马逊宣布推出“亚马逊币”(Amazon Coins)。虽然这一“货币”只能在亚马逊自己的网站上购买特定种类的商品或服务并与美元保持固定的比率，但它具有完全不同于礼品卡（Gift Card）的形态，拥有全网流通、独立于购物券的可能性。 On May 13, the e-commerce giant Amazon announced the introduction of the “Amazon” (coins). Although this “currency” can only buy certain types of goods or services on its own Amazon web site and maintain a fixed ratio with the United States dollar, it has a completely different form from the gift card (Gift Card), with the possibility of full Internet circulation and independence from purchase vouchers. 亚马逊币可以类比国内的Q币，早期Q币事实上已经做到了大范围流通，具备虚拟货币的特点，后来受限于国内政策，双向流通渠道被切断。如果运作得当，假以时日，亚马逊币并不难达到早期Q币的效果。 Amazonian coins can be compared to domestic Q-dollars, which were in fact widely circulating in the early years, characterized by virtual currency, which was later limited to domestic policies and cut off two-way channels. If it works properly, it will not be difficult for Amazonian coins to achieve the effects of the early Q-currency. 虚拟货币的实体流通之路 Physical trajectories of virtual currency 如比特币、XRP等由算法产生或者由某个公司发行的纯虚拟货币，其价值并不与现实世界的任何法定货币、实物挂钩，唯一决定其价格的，只能是发行者和使用者对它的信心。而要全面进入实体流通流域，除了保持币值稳定外，还需要打通虚拟货币与现实货币的联系渠道。通过前面所介绍的事实，对于虚拟货币我们可以得到以下结论： The value of purely virtual currencies, such as bitcoins, XRPs, which are generated by algorithms or issued by a company, is not tied to any legal currency, in kind, in the real world, and their price is determined only by the confidence of the issuer and the user. Full access to the physical circulation basin requires, in addition to keeping the value of the currency stable, access to the virtual currency to the real currency. Through the facts described above, the following conclusions can be drawn for the virtual currency: 1. 对虚拟货币的信心已经恢复 Confidence in virtual currency has been restored . 经历4月初由于安全原因所引发的比特币暴跌之后，短短几天的时间，比特币币值恢复坚挺。其价格由当时的60美元稳步上涨到当前120美元。5月15日，美国国土安全部冻结了全球最大的比特币交易所Mt. Gox的两个账户，这一重要事件也仅仅导致当日比特币价格的下跌。这些现象说明支持者对于比特币的信心并没有根本性动摇。而Ripple币——XRP在5月3日到5月5日暴涨3倍的情况，更展现了人们对于虚拟货币的狂热。 The price of Bitcoin recovered in just a few days after the collapse of the bitcoin caused by security reasons in early April, rising steadily from the then $60 to the current $120. On May 15, the United States Department of Homeland Security frozen two accounts of the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox, and this important event only led to a fall in Bitcoin prices that day. These phenomena suggest that supporters’ confidence in bitcoin was not fundamentally shaken. 2. 政策风险已经基本消除 2. Policy risks have been largely eliminated 政策风险一直人们对虚拟货币心存疑虑的重要原因。然而，仔细观察欧洲和美国相关机构的言论，可以发现他们并没有显露出从根本上禁止虚拟货币的意图，所强调的无非是反洗钱、反偷税和反非法交易等同样存在于法定货币中的违法行为。如美国财政部上月称：将对比特币和其它虚拟货币实行反洗钱法规，发行和兑换网络现金的公司将受到类似传统汇款业务的监管。这一声明反而说明对虚拟货币的监管仍然运行于现有法律框架之下，在政策层面并没有比使用法定货币更大的风险。这无疑会强化支持者的信心，并扩大虚拟货币的接受范围。 However, careful scrutiny of the statements made by European and United States agencies does not reveal a fundamental intention to ban virtual currency, highlighting offences that are also present in statutory currencies, such as anti-money-laundering, anti-tax theft, and anti-illegal transactions. As the United States Department of the Treasury said last month, by introducing anti-money-laundering legislation into the currency and other virtual currencies, companies that issue and convert online cash will be regulated by similar traditional remittance operations. 3. 虚拟货币与现实货币的直接兑换渠道已经打通 3. Virtual and real currency direct exchange channels have been established 前文提到的Coinbase公司和BitPay公司，他们所提供的服务就是帮助用户通过银行帐号直接购买比特币，并为比特币持有者和商家建立支付渠道。如果商家接收比特币，用户直接支付比特币；如果不接受，它可以把比特币实时转换为美元后支付。BitInstant和OKPay等公司也已经提供了类似的服务。这实质上已经打开比特币与银行帐号（现实货币）之间的通路，使得交易后端的透明化，比特币由此也获得与等同于法定货币的支付地位。 The services provided by Coinbase and Bitpay, as mentioned above, are to help users purchase bitcoins directly through bank accounts and to establish payment channels for bitcoins holders and merchants. If the merchant receives bitcoins, the user pays bitcoins directly; if not, it can convert bitcoins into United States dollars in real time. 4. 实体“货币”正逐步虚拟化 4. The entity “currency” is gradually being virtualized 除了与CoinBase、BitPay、BitInstant和OKPay等网络支付/电子钱包公司合作的商家之外，亚马逊的举动或许是一个重要信号。能在一个大的平台上使用比特币等虚拟货币直接进行购物，一直是虚拟货币持有者的梦想，亚马逊无疑符合这一期待。如果允许亚马逊币在大范围流通，它与诸如比特币、XRP之类纯虚拟货币之间的兑换和对接将成为一个简单的事情：省去银行账户环节、费用更优惠、使用更便捷。与此同时，亚马逊币将有助于扩大虚拟货币的接受范围和理解程度，消除相关的疑虑。 Apart from those who work with web-based payment/electronic wallet companies such as CoinBase, BitPay, BitInstant, and OKpay, Amazonian moves may be an important signal. The ability to shop directly using virtual currencies such as Bitcoin on a large platform has been the dream of virtual currency holders, and Amazons certainly meet this expectation. 引爆，还差什么？ What's the difference? 在参与者增加、信心增强、政策不确定性削弱的前提下，虚拟货币进入实体经济的途径可分为两条：自下而上的渗透和自上而下的对接。 In the context of increased participation, increased confidence and reduced policy uncertainty, the path to virtual currency entry into the real economy can be divided into two categories: bottom-up penetration and top-down interface. Coinbase等公司所做的事情属于前者：先把比特币与银行帐号挂钩，通过实时兑换扩大比特币的支付范围，使得那些不接受比特币的商家也可被比特币支付。 What Coinbase and others did was attributable to the former: to first link bitcoin to bank accounts and to expand the range of Bitcoin payments through real-time exchange, so that businesses that did not accept bitcoin could also be paid by bitcoins. 而亚马逊所做的事情属于后者，通过发行与现实货币挂钩、有限流通的虚拟货币，鼓励人们采用新的、更易于流通的支付工具购买商品。亚马逊也由此表明了自身对于虚拟货币的态度。 What Amazons do is part of the latter, encouraging people to use new, more mobile payment instruments to buy goods by issuing virtual currencies that are tied to real currency, with limited circulation. The Amazon thus demonstrates its own attitude to virtual currency. 这两条路径对接之日，就是虚拟货币的引爆之时。此时虚拟货币将表现出全面的货币行为：可与其它货币兑换（无论是法定货币还是纯虚拟货币）、可存入银行或钱包、可直接购买实物、可实现无差别支付。而从前面的事实与观察可以发现，当前距离这个引爆点只差： At this point, the virtual currency will show complete monetary behaviour: convertibility with other currencies (whether statutory or purely virtual), depositable in banks or wallets, direct purchases in kind, and non-differentiated payments. 1. 行业巨头更加深入的介入 1. Deeper involvement of industry giants 随着第一个流通途径的建立，只要商家支持相关的电子钱包/支付平台，虚拟货币持有者就可以自由的购物、交易、转账。但毕竟当前支持这些平台的商家数目有限，平台的影响力也不足够。如果有一家巨头站出来，开始认真接受纯虚拟货币（或纯虚拟货币与自家虚拟货币的兑换），整个虚拟货币界必将为之沸腾。而配合Coinbase之类公司的实时兑换技术，虚拟货币在主流渠道中的流通只是分分钟的事情。 With the establishment of the first mode of circulation, virtual currency holders can freely buy, trade, and transfer as long as they support the relevant electronic wallet/payment platforms. But, after all, the number of businesses that currently support these platforms is limited, and the platform’s influence is inadequate. 2. 币值稳定 2. Currency stability 巨头介入之后，虚拟货币流通最大的障碍在于币值的不稳定性，由此带来的支付风险将是业界顾虑之所在。但目前纯虚拟货币的盘子有限，通过行业巨头的作为稳定币值并不是件很困难的事情；而虚拟货币与实物更密切的挂钩，对这一努力亦将不无裨益。 With giants involved, the biggest obstacle to virtual currency circulation lies in the volatility of the value of the currency, and the resulting risk of payment will be a concern for the industry. But the current set of pure virtual money is limited, and it is not difficult to stabilize the value of the currency through industry giants; and a closer physical link between virtual currency and the money will be beneficial to this effort. 因此，让我们拭目以待，等待虚拟货币真正引爆的那一天，或许在下个月，或许在明年。不过无论如何，这一天应该不会太远了。 So let's wait and see, the day that the virtual currency actually explodes, maybe next month, maybe next year. But, in any case, it's not going to be too far.
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