以太坊现货ETF何时将获得美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的批准上市，市场正密切关注S-1注册声明文件的进展，6月21日晚上，彭博ETF分析师Eric Balchunas发布共8家以太坊现货ETF申请人，并重申7月2日将作为以太坊现货ETF的发行日。
On the evening of 21 June, Eric Balchunas, the Bloomberg ETF analyst, released a total of eight ETA spot ETF applicants and reiterated that 2 July would be used as the launch date for ETA spot ETF.
比特币ETF为众多新买家提供了在其投资组合中配置比特币的机会，使得比特币价格得以大幅上涨。自贝莱德提交比特币ETF申请时，比特币价格约为2.5万美元，如今比特币的回报率已达到2.6倍，而以太坊ETF通过后是否能将以太坊价格近一步推升呢?
BitcoinETF provides an opportunity for a large number of new buyers to place bitcoin in their portfolio, allowing bitcoin prices to rise significantly . Since Beled submitted the Bitcoin ETF application, Bitcoin has been about $25,000, and now Bitcoin has a 2.6-fold return.
Andrew Kang：以太坊ETF影响力有限
Andrew Kang: The ETF has limited influence
对于未来的价格上涨预测，Mechanism Capital的共同创办人Andrew Kang今(23)日发表了保守看法，他指出，相较于比特币，以太坊ETF的影响力显得较为有限。即使以太坊的回报率在同一周期内也达到了2.1倍，但这与比特币的涨幅相比，显得不够显著。“从本轮市场周期的底部来看，比特币和以太坊的回报率都达到了4.0倍。这表明以太坊在市场复苏期内有不错的表现，但其潜在上行空间仍需进一步观察。”
The co-founder of Mechanism Capital, Andrew Kang, today (23), expressed a conservative view of future price escalation, noting that the influence of the Taiyo ETF was more limited than that of Bitcoin. Even if it was 2.1 times the rate of return in the same cycle, it was not significant compared to the increase in Bitcoin. & ldquo; by the bottom of the current round of the market cycle, both Bitco and Eta were 4.0 times the rate of return.
他认为，要判断以太坊ETF能提供多大的上行空间，关键在于以太坊能否开发出创新的经济改进途径。如果以太坊能够在技术和应用层面实现显著突破，其上行空间将会更加可观。反之，若无法找到有效的经济改进方法，其上行空间将会受到限制。
In his view, the key to determining how much room ETA ETF can offer for economic improvement is whether ETA can develop innovative ways to improve the economy. If it can achieve significant breakthroughs at the technical and application levels, it will be much more significant. Conversely, if effective economic improvements are not found, it will be limited.
ETF推出后ETH恐下跌至2,400美元
After the launch of the ETF, the ETH is likely to fall to $2,400
根据Eric Balchunas的估计，以太坊的市场流量可能仅为比特币的10%。这意味着在6个月内，以太坊的真正净购买流量预计为5亿美元，净流量则为15亿美元。
Eric Balchunas estimates that market flows in the Taiku may be only 10% of Bitcoin. This means that in six months, real net purchasing flows in the Taiku are expected to be $500 million, compared to $1.5 billion.
对此Andrew Kang个人预测的情况是以太坊的ETF市场约为比特币15%的市场流量，即8.4亿美元的真正净买量和25.2亿美元的净流量。
Andrew Kang's personal projections for this are a market flow of about 15 per cent of Bitcoin, a real net purchase of $840 million and a net flow of $2.52 billion, in the Taiwan ETF market.
“在乐观情况下，以太坊ETF的真正净购买量可能达到15亿美元，报告净流量达45亿美元，这相当于比特币市场流量的30%。无论哪种情况，真正的净购买量仍远低于推出前ETF的衍生品流量，后者提前达到了24亿美元。(意味着ETF的期望和反应已经提前体现在价格中)”
& ldquo; Under optimistic circumstances, real net purchases of ETFs could reach $1.5 billion, reporting net flows of $4.5 billion, or 30% of the Bitcoin market flow. In either case, real net purchases are still well below the pre-launch ETF derivative flows, which have reached $2.4 billion earlier. (It means that ETF expectations and reactions are already reflected in prices in advance) & & rdquo;
在ETF推出前，预计ETH的交易价格在3,000美元到3,800美元之间;而在ETF推出后，Andrew Kang预测价格在2,400美元到3,000美元之间。值得一提的是，Andrew Kang也表示一切还是取决于比特币，如果比特币在2024年底或2025年初涨至10万美元，这可能会将ETH推至历史新高，但ETH/BTC的比率会较低。
Before the ETF, transaction prices were expected to be between US$ 3,000 and US$ 3,800; after the ETF, Andrew Kang projected prices between US$ 2,400 and US$ 3,000. It is worth noting that Andrew Kang also indicated that everything was dependent on Bitcoin, which, if it increased to US$ 100,000 by the end of 2024 or early 2025, could push the ETH/BTC ratio to a lower historical high.
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