摘要：今日比特币带动大盘有所上涨，但山寨币表现相对较弱，且并无明显的量能释放，场内资金依然存在分歧。对于明年的区块奖励减半，矿工已有所预期，出现类似2018年底矿难的可能性要小，但不排除算力增加或价格下跌所带来的矿难可能。
Summary: Bitcoin is driving up today, but the mountain coins are relatively weak and unmanageable, and funding within the field is still divided. Next year's block incentives are halved, miners have already anticipated, and the prospect of a mine crash similar to the one at the end of 2018 is less likely, but not the possibility of a mine with an increase in arithmetic or a fall in prices.
据QKL123数据统计，2019年12月23日15时，全球Token市场的总市值14139.15亿元，24小时变化+3.71%；总成交额5954.41亿元，24小时变化+37.04%，市场活跃度大幅增加。8BTCCI大盘指数报9823.21点，24小时涨跌为+4.18%，反映大盘有所增加；比特币强弱指数报111.48点，24小时涨跌+0.51%，比特币在整个市场的相对表现略有变强；Alternative情绪指数为33（前值20），市场情绪表现为恐惧。
According to QKL123 data, at 1500 hours on 23 December 2019 the total market value of the global market of Token was 1,413.15 billion yuan, with 24-hour changes + 3.71 per cent; the total transaction was 59,544.1 million yuan, with 24-hour changes + 37.04 per cent, and market activity increased significantly. 8 BCCI big-leaf index reports 9823.21 points, with 24-hour increases to +4.18 per cent, reflecting an increase in the big scale; the Bitcoin weak index reports 111.48 points, 24-hour declines + 0.51 per cent, with a slight increase in the relative performance of the Bitcoin across the market; and the Alternative emotional index is 33 (former value 20), with market mood manifestations of fear.
市值前十加密资产中（剔除USDT），BTC 24小时上涨幅度最大（+4.90%），XTZ 24小时下跌幅度最大（-1.64%）。ChaiNext USDT场外折溢价指数报99.50，24小时涨跌为-0.08%；USDT 报6.98元，24小时涨跌为-0.27%；USDC 报6.98，24小时涨跌为+0.09%。
Of the top 10 encrypted assets with market value excluded from USDT, BTC experienced the largest increase in 24 hours (+4.90 per cent) and the largest decline in XTZ 24 hours (-1.64 per cent). The ChaiNext USDT off-site premium index reported 99.50, with a 24-hour increase of -0.08 per cent; USDT reported $6.98, with a 24-hour increase of -0.27 per cent; and UNDC reported 6.98, with a 24-hour increase of +0.09 per cent.
分析师观点：
Analyst perspective:
近一年以来，比特币的日均全网算力增加了近9倍。特别是今年上半年，随着比特币价格的不断回升，比特币全网算力不断创出新高。比特币全网算力的不断增长主要受到两个方面（收益和成本）的影响：一个是比特币价格的上涨，带动了矿工对矿机的需求（预期收益增加），单纯的设备投放保障了全网算力的增加；另一个是矿机生产技术的升级迭代，降低了算力投入的单位成本（预期成本减少），新设备的替代作用促进了算力的持续增长。
In the first half of this year, in particular, with the recovery of bitcoin prices, bitcoin’s all-net capacity has continued to rise. The growth of Bitcoin’s all-net capacity has been influenced mainly by two factors (benefits and costs): the increase in Bitcoin prices, which has driven the miners’ demand for the mine machines (the expected increase in returns), and the increase in the full network’s capacity by simply placing the equipment; and the upgrading of mining technology, which has reduced the unit cost of the input (the expected decrease in costs), and the replacement of new equipment, which has contributed to the continued growth of the all-system capacity.
昨日，比特币日均全网算力再创新高，达到111.87 EH/s，但勉强突破了10月23日的前高（111.29 EH/s），有趋势扭转的迹象。近两个月以来，受到价格持续回落的影响，比特币全网算力出现了明显的增长停滞。而上次出现明显增长停滞是在08月底至10月底期间。并且之后，从2018年11月01日开始出现了一段明显的回落，全网算力从60.42 EH/s的高点下降至2018年12月09日的低点33.22 EH/s。出现明显回落的主要原因是，比特币的价格从11月初的6500美元快速下降至12月初的3200美元，部分矿工被迫关机或退出。
Yesterday, Bitcoin was re-innovated to 111.87 EH/s on average, but barely crossed the previous high of 23 October (111.29 EH/s), showing signs of a reversal of the trend. Over the last two months, as a result of a sustained fall in prices, Bitcoin’s overall growth stagnated significantly, while the last significant stagnation occurred between the end of August and the end of October.
目前，蚂蚁矿机S17系列、翼比特矿机 E11+系列和神马矿机M20S系列的关机价格在3000美元左右，而蚂蚁矿机S9系列和阿瓦隆A9系列的关机价格在5000美元至7000美元之间，蚂蚁矿机T9系列和翼比特E9系列等的关机价格在8000美元至10000美元之间。若在成本和算力等参数不变下，明年05月左右的区块奖励减半，会使得矿工的收益接近减半，对应的新矿机将接近关机价格，而老矿机都将面临关机。
At present, the shutdown price for the ant miner S17 series, the winged bit miner E11+ series and the horse mine M20S series is around $3,000, while the turn-off price for the ant miner S9 series and the Avalon A9 series is between $5,000 and $7,000, while the turn-off price for the ant miner T9 series and the winged bit E9 series is between $8,000 and $10,000. If the block incentive is halved next month or so in terms of cost and arithmetic, it will reduce the miner's earnings by nearly half, the corresponding new miner will be close to the turn-off price and the old miner will face the turn-off.
此前，矿工对于2018年底的价格快速下降是难以预期的，但是对于明年区块奖励减半带来的收益减半是可以预期的，理性的矿工会提前做好应对准备。而且，减半行情有利于比特币价格的上涨，对于矿工来说也是一个利好预期。当然，对于全网算力是否会出现大幅的增加（矿工对减半行情过度期望）或价格是否会出现大幅下降，这些是矿工无法预期的。
Until then, rapid price declines for miners at the end of 2018 had been difficult to predict, but they could be expected to halve next year’s revenues from block incentives, and rational mining unions were prepared to respond ahead of schedule. Moreover, halving favors the price of bitcoin and is also a good expectation for miners.
可以推测，明年减半后能够预期到的收益减半，对矿工的实际影响不会很大，而出现类似2018年底矿难的可能性要小很多，但不排除其他因素的可能影响。
It can be assumed that the actual impact on miners of halving the expected returns next year will not be significant, while the likelihood of a mine disaster similar to that of the end of 2018 will be much smaller, without excluding the possible impact of other factors.
一、现货BTC行情
i, 近日BTC站上在7000美元后，昨日继续尝试上攻，但并未站上7800美元，短时不确定性较大。日线MACD出现金叉，RSI临近超买区间，可上可下的位置，区间继续震荡的可能性较大。 In recent days, the BTC has continued its attempt after $7,000, but it has not been on $7,800, with greater uncertainty in the short term. The Sun's MACD has a golden fork, RSI is close to the overpurchase zone, so it can go up and down, and there is a greater likelihood that the zone will continue to vibrate. 二、现货ETH行情 II, spot ETH 今日ETH小幅上攻，最高触及135美元，目前回落至130美元。相对比特币表现依然较弱，近期等比特币站稳，若有项目利好配合，有望出现补涨行情。 Today’s ETH surge, reaching a maximum of $135, has now fallen back to $130. Bitcoin is still weak, and it is likely that there will be a catch-up when projects work together. 三、现货LTC行情 近期BTC有望结束筑底过程，逢低定投为主（参考囤币指标）。智能合约平台龙头ETH、山寨币龙头LTC、DPoS龙头EOS的BTC相对价格接近年内低点，可择机定投配置。 In the near future, the BTC is expected to end the construction process at a time when low investment is expected (reference to the money-stocking index). The BTC of the smart contract platform, ETH, LTC, and DDPS, EOS, are close to a year low in relative prices and can be configured. 2．中线（1-3月） 2. Midline (January-March) 近期有望形成双底，仓位不重者可逢低加仓。 In the near future, it is expected that there will be a double-dip, with a low level of warehousing for those who do not weigh heavily. 3．短线（1-3天） 3. Short lines (1-3 days) 短时区间震荡临近压力位，不确定性加大，观望为主。 Short-term inter-temporal shocks are approaching pressure levels, with greater uncertainty and greater wait-and-seeness. 附录：指标释义 Appendix : Interpretation of indicators 1. 8BTCCI大盘指数 1. 8BTCI Large Disc Index 8BTCCI大盘指数由现有区块链全球市场中规模大、流动性好的最具代表性Token组成，以综合反映整个区块链Token市场的价格表现。 The 8BTCCI index consists of the largest and most representative Token in the global market of the existing block chain to reflect the price performance of the Token market as a whole. 2.比特币强弱指数 2. Bitcoin Weak Index 比特币强弱指数（BTCX）反映比特币在整个Token市场兑换情况的指标，进而体现比特币在市场中的竞争强弱，用来衡量比特币对一揽子Token相对价格的变化程度。BTCX指数越大，说明比特币在Token市场越强势。 The Bitcoin Power and Power Index (BTCX) reflects the index of bitcoin conversion across the Token market, and thus the extent to which bitcoin is competitive in the market and measures the extent to which bitcoin changes relative to the Token basket. The bigger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin is in the Token market. 3.Alternative情绪指数 3. Alternative Emotional Index 恐惧&贪婪指数（Fear & Greed Index）反映市场的情绪变化，0意味着“极度恐惧”，100意味着“极度贪婪”。该指标的成份包括：波动性（25%)，交易量（25%)，社交媒体（15%），网络问卷（15%），市场占有率（10%），趋势（10%）。 The Fear & Greed Index (FEAR & Green Index) reflects changes in the mood in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The components of the indicator include volatility (25 per cent), turnover (25 per cent), social media (15 per cent), web-based questionnaires (15 per cent), market occupancy (10 per cent) and trends (10 per cent). 4.USDT场外折溢价指数 4. USDT off-site premium index ChaiNext USDT场外折溢价指数（USDT OTC INDEX）由 USDT/CNY 场外价格除以离岸人民币汇率再乘以 100 后获得。指数为100时表示USDT平价，指数大于100表示USDT溢价，小于100则表示USDT折价。 The ChaiNet USDT off-site premium index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by USDT/CNY off-site prices multiplied by 100 RMB. The index is 100 for USDT parity, more than 100 for USDT premium, and less than 100 for USDT discount. 5.资金净流入(出) 5. Net financial inflows (out/out/out/out/out/out/out/) 该指标反映二级市场资金流入流出情况。通过计算全球交易平台（未剔除虚假交易）的流入资金与流出资金之差，正值表示资金净流入，负值则表示资金净流出。其中，上涨时成交额计为流入资金，下跌时成交额计为流出资金。 The indicator reflects flows to and from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between inflows to and outflows from the global trading platform (where false transactions have not been removed), the positive value represents net inflows and the negative value represents net outflows. 6.BTC-囤币指标 6. BTC - Money hoarding indicator 囤币指标由微博用户ahr999创建，辅助比特币定投用户结合择机策略做出投资决策。该指标由两部分的乘积组成，前者为比特币价格与比特币200日定投成本的比值；后者为比特币价格与比特币拟合价格的比值。一般情况下，当指标低于0.45时更适合增大投资额（抄底），时间区间占比约为21%；当指标位于0.45和1.2之间时适合采取定投策略，时间区间占比约为39%。 The index was created by microblogging user ahr999 to support investment decision-making by Bitcoin target users in a combination of machine-selection strategies. The indicator consists of two components: the ratio of bitcoin prices to bitcoins 200 days of bid; and the ratio of bitcoins to bitcoins to bitcoins. In general, the indicator is better suited to increase investment when it is below 0.45, with a time-zone ratio of about 21%; and the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, with a time-zone ratio of about 39%. 注：加密资产属于高风险类资产，本文仅供决策参考，不构成投资建议。 Note : Encrypted assets are classified as high-risk assets for decision-making purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation. QKL123（区块链123）是集区块链网址导航、数字货币行情、区块链数据于一体的综合型数据服务商。 QKL123 (block chain 123) is an integrated data service provider for cluster block chain web site navigation, digital currency profiles, block chain data integration. 数据来源： Data source: QKL123导航 QKL123 Navigator 推荐阅读： Recommended for reading:
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