本文来自微信公众号：远望资本iVision（ID：iVisionVC），作者：田鸿飞，头图来自：unsplash
当新的范式来临的时候，传统的商业逻辑和成功路径不再有效。在习惯于旧范式的成功路径的人们眼中，新的范式总会被标签为泡沫甚至骗局，但是没有力量可以阻挡范式的转移。范式变化的力量之大以及对抗范式的力量之大都超出我们的想象，经常需要老一代付出被淘汰的代价才能推动新范式的发展。
In the eyes of those who are accustomed to the old paradigm’s path of success, the new paradigm will always be labelled as a bubble or even a trick, but there is no power to block the paradigm shift. The power of the paradigm shift and the power of the confrontation paradigm are greater than we can imagine, and it often takes the older generation to pay the price of being eliminated to drive the new paradigm.
70年代开始的信息技术的发展，浩浩荡荡推动了40年，经历了3个范式转移：
The development of information technology, which began in the 1970s, gave impetus to 40 years of inflexibility and went through three paradigm shifts:
Web1.0以Netscape的上市为起点，造就了Netsacpe，AOL，Yahoo等一系列巨头公司。所有的服务围绕着发布信息，口号是在互联网上没有人知道你是一条狗；
Web1.0 Creates a series of giant companies like Netsacpe, AOL, Yahoo, using Netscape's listing as a starting point.
Web2.0以Google Map和Facebook的上线为起点，造就了Facebook，Google，LinkedIn等企业。这些企业为用户提供信息互动服务，中心是社交网络，这个年代如果有人用网名注册Facebook将会被看成怪人；
Web2.0, starting with Google Map and Facebook, created companies like Facebook, Google, LinkedIn. , which provides users with information interactive services, centres on social networks, and will be seen as freaks if someone registers Facebook under a web name;
Web3.0以中本聪利用区块链发明比特币为起点，代表了用户将拥有信息为中心的新范式。
Web3.0 represents a new paradigm in which users will have information at their centre.
Web的发展一直围绕着人和信息，从信息到人，到信息和人互动，到人拥有信息，体现了整个行业的发展从以信息源为中心发展到以人为中心。
The development of
Web revolved around people and information, from information to people, to information and human interaction, to people having information, reflecting the evolution of the whole industry from information-based to people-centred.
从2017年起我写了一系列的文章：《区块链火爆的背后是创新的焦虑》讲述了互联网行业已经进入垄断和创新的匮乏，之后美国和中国在2020年都开始对互联网企业的垄断进行调查；《区块链的发展靠1%的有信仰的人》讲述了区块链发展的每一个周期都会看到有些人靠泡沫赚钱退休，就像炒房赚钱退休一样会被时代淘汰。这其中有些对行业发展提出质疑的人退出行业。但是，每一次周期都会看到有更多的新人加入，其中一部分人更有能力，更有信仰，正是这些人的坚持推动了每一次行业的发展。
The root of the bubble lies in the fact that humanity often overestimates the present and underestimates the future. The future of industry development, therefore, is always created by a small group of people who adhere to their inner faith and who can delay satisfaction. 如果创业者和投资人仍然以旧范式的思维逻辑来对待Web3.0，就会应了那句老话，“一个新时代的来临，必须以牺牲上一个时代的人为代价”。 If entrepreneurs and investors continue to treat Web3.0 with old-fashioned thinking logic, they will respond to the old saying that “the advent of a new era must come at the expense of the people of the past”. 1. 从整体环境上来看，互联网行业从业者在过去40年都在享受整体行业成长的红利，靠广告投放增长的范式将会被社群增长的方式代替。 1. In the overall environment, Internet practitioners have enjoyed the dividends of overall industry growth over the past 40 years, and the paradigm of growth through advertising will be replaced by a way of community growth. 2020年周期的叙事是DeFi，它试图改变现在的金融行业，我认为DeFi的技术会保留下来，但是DeFi的叙事不会持续到下个周期。因为现代金融行业自从诞生以来，就发展缓慢，很少脱离自己的规则。在高科技公司占据了市值份额如此巨大的情况下，现代银行仍然无法对创业科技企业进行贷款，创新型银行的代表硅谷银行经过超过半个世纪的努力仍然无法改变这个行业的一根毫毛。 The narrative for the 2020 cycle is DeFi, which is trying to change the current financial sector, and I think DeFi’s technology will be retained, but DeFi’s narrative will not continue into the next cycle. Because the modern financial sector has been developing slowly since its inception, with little departure from its own rules. 所以，我认为DeFi的叙事不可能改变现实世界的金融行业，改变将发生在元宇宙世界里面创建新的数字资产的新金融体系，以及用于去中心化云计算数字资源的协作框架。元宇宙的产生解决了区块链一直无法解决的物理世界上链难题，为DeFi的应用创建了应用场景。 So I think DeFi’s narrative cannot change the real world financial industry, the new financial system that will create new digital assets in the meta-cosmos world, and the collaborative framework that will be used to decentralize cloud computing digital resources. The creation of the meta-cosmos solves the physical world chain dilemma that the block chain has been unable to solve, creating an application for DeFi’s applications. 3. 从商业模式上来看，用户靠出卖个人行为数据换取免费产品使用权的模式，被“谁使用谁付费”所取代。 From a business model, the model whereby users sell personal behaviour data in exchange for free access to their products is replaced by the “who pays”. 不同于云计算的租用模式，Web3.0时代的商业模式是按照运行次数和访问次数收费。区块链网络是一个巨大的计算机，承载的所有智能合约都开源给对外暴露服务API，鼓励创业者自由调用，创业者按照自己的创意开发产品，生成一个新的智能合约。 Unlike the lease model for cloud computing, the Web3.0-era business model is based on the number of times it operates and the number of times it visits. The block chain network is a huge computer, with all the smart contracts on board opening up to API, encouraging entrepreneurs to call freely, and entrepreneurs to develop their own creative products and generate a new smart contract. 大量开放的智能合约和数据不仅仅激发了创新，而且大大降低了创业的组织门槛，原来数百人的技术团队将由分布式的小团队代替；同时，由于智能合约部署在区块链上，而不是传统上需要公司采购的服务器上或者租用的云计算服务器上，创业者不再需要支付服务器成本。智能合约的计算成本将由调用的用户支付，由于用户支付了计算成本，因此理所当然用户应该拥有自己的数据和隐私。 A large number of open smart contracts and data not only stimulate innovation, but also significantly reduce the organizational threshold of entrepreneurship, with hundreds of technical teams being replaced by distributed small teams; and, since smart contracts are deployed on block chains, rather than on servers traditionally purchased by companies or leased cloud computing servers, entrepreneurs no longer need to pay for server costs. Smart contracts will be calculated at the expense of callers, and users should have their own data and privacy as they pay for them. 所以，现在的免费使用靠广告收费的商业模式将会被取代。 Thus, the current commercial model of free use of advertising fees would be replaced. Technically, software development has shifted from a high-performance low-cost priority to a high-security high-reliability priority. 进入Web3.0和元宇宙以后，由于互联网承接了大量高价值的数字资产，强安全和高可靠性成为了第一优先级。 Upon entering the Web 3.0 and meta-cosmos, strong security and high reliability became the first priority owing to the large number of high-value digital assets that the Internet inherited. 6. 从技术架构上来看，将从server client架构变化成blockchain-edge-client。 6. From the technical architecture, changes will be made from the server client structure to the blockchain-edge-client. The development of the 短期来看，因为区块链软件的用户体验没有如今的互联网产品使用体验好，因此用户需要时间来教育。因为用户需要使用产品来管理自己的数字资产，用户需要获得使用产品的安全感，而且当前区块链用户属于社会中的少数群体，因此需要社区来获得认同和安全感。 In the short term, because the user experience of block chain software is not as good as the current use of Internet products, users need time to educate. Because users need to use products to manage their own digital assets, users need a sense of security in the use of products, and current block chain users belong to minority groups in society, they need a sense of identity and security in their communities. 长期来看，因为用户既是产品的用户，又是创造公司价值和拥有公司价值的一部分，所以社区营销和运营将主导Web3.0时代的产品推广。 In the long term, as users are both users of products and part of the creation of corporate value and ownership of corporate value, community marketing and operations will dominate product promotion in the Web3.0 era. 9. 从创业融资和风险投资来看，用户和投资人融为一体，原来的投资人将需要做出比资金更多的贡献。 9. From the point of view of entrepreneurship finance and venture capital, users and investors are integrated, and former investors will need to make more contributions than money. 正如以太坊的代币ETH，用户既可以用ETH来支付转账gas费用，在ETH2.0时代又可以用ETH来参与公链治理，区块链项目的代币的使用范围超出了传统的股权范畴，用户既需要代币来使用产品，又享受了类似于股权红利的代币增值红利。 As with ETH, users can use ETH to cover transfer fees and ETH to participate in public-chain governance in the ETH 2.0 era. The use of currency in block-chain projects goes beyond traditional equity, and users need both to use the product and to enjoy a token value-added dividend similar to the equity dividend. 10. 从公司治理来看，股权公司将被DAO组织代替。 From the point of view of corporate governance, equity companies will be replaced by DAO organizations. The 另一方面，因为程序完全开源，因此项目开发完成后，很容易移交给社区进行后续维护和升级，加上上面说的代币分发模型，所有这些因素叠加起来就为DAO组织管理创建了可能性。 On the other hand, since the process is fully open, the completion of the project development makes it easy to transfer to the community for follow-up maintenance and upgrading, all of which, together with the above-mentioned money distribution model, create possibilities for DAO organizational management. < b/> For entrepreneurs, coppy to China, or for American entrepreneurs, coppy QQQ and TikTok, regional arbitrage strategies will no longer be feasible, as all codes and users open up, copying becomes what everyone can do, and block chain products are borderless and face global competition. 因此，VC将不得不适应投资一个项目而不是一个团队，不得不适应放弃自己的董事会席位而让位于DAO治理。 As a result, VC will have to adapt to investing in a project rather than a team, and to relinquishing its board seat in favour of DAO governance. & nbsp; 本文来自微信公众号：远望资本iVision（ID：iVisionVC），作者：田鸿飞
I have written a series of articles since 2017:
泡沫的根源在于人性经常会高估现在，低估未来。所以，行业发展的未来总是由一群少数坚持自己内心信仰，能够延迟满足的人所创造。
2018年，随着ICO泡沫的破裂，区块链行业进入一个熊市。然而毕竟区块链是一个泡沫，而不是骗局。骗局不会一次一次重生，而泡沫沉淀的精华会再次涅磐。泡沫沉淀的一群有能力有信仰的优秀团队，他们孕育力量，经过两年的发展，在2020年，再次将整个区块链的发展推入一个新的高潮。
In 2018, with the bursting of the ICO bubble, the block chain industry entered a bear market. But after all, the block chain is a bubble, not a trick. The consternation will not regenerate once again, and the bubble-spill essence will rise again.
在我看来，Web3.0是巨大的范式的变化，因为它改变了创业的方方面面，影响力远远超过移动互联网。毕竟移动互联网发生的一切早在1996年尼格罗庞蒂写就的《数字化生存》中就有清清楚楚的描述。但Web3.0的一切仍然没有人能够画出蓝图，就像2015年没有人能够预测到以太坊能够有机会超过比特币，2018年没有人能够预测到2020年的热点竟然是DeFi（Decentralized finance，去中心化金融）。
In my view,
未来的公司被项目代替，股权被代币代替，股东会被Staking代替……对于现在的创业者和投资人，面对的最大的敌人就是自己的范式逻辑。
Future companies are replaced by projects, equity is replaced by tokens, shareholders are replaced by Staking... The greatest enemy facing current entrepreneurs and investors is their own paradigm logic.
如果不想被新的范式转换抛弃，唯一的选择是倒立起来，重建自己的逻辑框架。下面我们从创业和投资的方法方面，论述Web3.0时代我们面对的范式转移：
If we do not want to be abandoned by a new paradigm shift, the only option is to stand back and rebuild our logical framework. discusses the paradigm shift we face in the Web3.0 era in terms of the approach to entrepreneurship and investment:
互联网自诞生以来到2015年渗透率增长停滞在60%，移动互联网的渗透率达到78%。整个互联网行业进入了红海竞争，每一个企业都需要从竞争对手那里争夺用户，流量成本将会不断增加，广告投放驱动的用户增长策略将会被以用户社群增长和运营的方式所取代。
The Internet penetration rate has stagnated at 60% and mobile Internet penetration at 78% since its inception. The entire Internet industry has entered the Red Sea, every firm needs to compete for users from competitors, the flow costs will increase, and the user growth strategy, driven by advertising, will be replaced by the growth and operation of the user community.
2. 区块链从比特币发展到以太坊，从代币首发募集资金到分布式金融DeFi和NFT，从野蛮生长到监管合规进入主流，已经到了发展的前夜。
strang>2. The block chain has evolved from Bitcoin to Etheria, from token to distributed financial DeFi and NFT, from barbarism to regulatory compliance to mainstream development.
自从2010年以来，随着比特币产量的每4年减半的周期，伴随着牛熊交替，伴随着媒体的狂热和冷淡，涌进来一批创业者，淘汰了老一批创业者。每一个周期的叙事都不同。相同的是，每一个周期比特币的价格至少翻10倍，比特币占整个加密市场市值不低于40%，区块链从业者越来越多，从比特币单链世界进入了多链世界。
Since 2010, the cycle of halving Bitcoin production every four years has been accompanied by a succession of cattle and bears, with the fanaticism and coldness of the media, the influx of entrepreneurs and the elimination of older entrepreneurs. The narratives of each cycle have been different. Similarly, the price of bitcoins per cycle has increased by at least 10 times, the market value of bitcoins is not less than 40 per cent for the entire crypto market, and the number of chain operators has increased from the Bitcoin single-chain world to a multi-chained world.
4. 从技术上来讲，软件开发从高性能低成本优先变成了强安全高可靠性优先。
在互联网发展的40年，高速度一直是一个核心关键词，支持数十亿的用户快速访问互联网是一个核心标准。
In the 40 years of Internet development, high speed has been a core keyword, and fast access to the Internet for billions of users is a core standard.
加密学和分布式计算成为了未来软件工程师的必修课。
encryption and distributed computing became mandatory courses for future software engineers.
5. 从软件开发上来讲，开源成为了必要。
5. Open source becomes necessary for software development.
正由于未来的软件控制了用户的资产，因此开源成为了软件开发的必要而不是可选项。而且，基于智能合约组合形成新产品将成为主流的开发模式，因此需要智能合约开源。
is precisely because the future software controls the assets of the user, so open source becomes necessary rather than optional for software development. Moreover, the creation of new products based on intelligent contract combinations will become the mainstream development model, thus requiring intelligent contract opening.
从商业模式角度上来看，现在的互联网企业因为靠广告收入，因此需要将用户保留在自己产品体系里面。在Web3.0时代，用户为使用智能合约调用支付费用，大量的第三方合约调用同样会带来收入，因此隐藏在第三方的背后不会损失收入，反而会带来新的收入来源。因此，Web3.0企业应该开源鼓励第三方免费使用。
From a business model perspective, Internet companies now rely on advertising revenue to keep users in their own product systems. In the Web3.0, when users call to pay for the use of smart contracts, large numbers of third-party contracts also generate income, so hiding behind third parties does not lose revenue, but instead creates new sources of income. Web3.0 should therefore open sources to encourage third parties to use them free of charge.
长期以来集中于IDC的服务器，将被由区块链组成的分布式节点代替；serverless代码将部署于靠近用户端的edge，为用户提供个性化的安全和隐私计算。
Servers that have long been concentrated in IDCs will be replaced by distributed nodes consisting of block chains; the serverless code will be deployed near the end of the user edge to provide personalized security and privacy calculations for users.
被AWS、微软、Google Cloud等垄断的云计算平台将会被打破，再一次被分散的数据中心代替。Intel的可信计算CPU将会得到大规模使用。
The cloud computing platform, which is monopolized by AWS, Microsoft, Google Cloud, etc., will be broken and replaced again by a decentralized data centre.
7. 从产品设计上来看在未来10年内，用户体验将让位于软件的可用性。
7. In terms of product design, the user experience will give way to software availability over the next 10 years.
区块链的发展仍然处于早期，正如1996年的Yahoo网页，速度慢，又难看，但是仍然得到用户的喜欢，因为Yahoo提供了一种新的信息传播方式。就像比尔·盖茨面对主持人解释什么是互联网，为什么收音机和录音机不比互联网好呢？区块链产品的市场定位需要提供新的价值，那就是用户控制自己的数字资产。就像用户需要一段时间理解互联网比收音机和录音机好一样，大多数用户需要一段时间才能体会到数字资产的好处。
block chain is still at an early stage, as the 1996 Yahoo web page is slow and ugly, but it is still popular with users, because Yahoo provides a new way of disseminating information. Just as Bill Gates explains to the moderator what the Internet is, why is radio and tape recorders better than the Internet? Market positioning of block chain products requires new value: users control their digital assets. Just as users understand that the Internet is better than radios and recorders, it takes time for most users to appreciate the benefits of digital assets.
8. 从产品营销上来看，社区营销成为唯一的选择。
8. Community marketing is the only option in terms of product marketing.
从风险投资角度来看，未来的风险投资人不仅仅需要提供资金，还需要为项目提供初期的流动性资金，Staking和治理服务。由于代币的发行和交易不再有清晰的界限，不管是POW还是POS，矿工都参与了链的治理，因此要求未来的风险投资具有从技术底层到抽象治理的全部参与。
From a risk-investment perspective, future venture capitalists need not only to finance, but also to provide initial liquidity for the project, Staking and governance services. Since the issuance and trading of tokens no longer have clear boundaries, both Pow and POS, miners are involved in chain governance, requiring that future venture capital be fully involved, from the bottom of technology to abstract governance.
正如商业模式范式变化所提到的，40年的互联网发展降低了计算成本和降低了网络协作成本，大大降低了创业门槛和增加了团队协作创新，未来的企业将是小规模的柔性协作项目合作。
As mentioned in the change in business model paradigm, 40 years of Internet development has reduced costing and cost of networking, significantly reduced the threshold of entrepreneurship and increased teamwork innovation, and future firms will be small-scale, flexible collaborative projects.
计算基础设施经过了90年代的自建数据中心过渡到后2000年代的云计算中心，从大型商业软件过渡到了免费开源软件和API互联网，到了2020年的区块链驱动的智能合约乐高组合，对于创业者的资金门槛和组织规模门槛要求越来越低。
computing infrastructure transitioned from a self-constructed data centre in the 1990s to a post-2000 cloud computing centre, from large commercial software to free open source software and the API Internet, to the 2020 block-chain-driven smart contract combination, with declining financial and organizational size thresholds for entrepreneurs.
越来越多的分布在全球的小团队可以在很短的时间内，踩在巨人的肩膀上，基于区块链上的已有的智能合约，组合开发出来自己的dapp，零成本部署运行在区块链上，程序运行成本由产品的用户支付使用，完全脱离了现在的用户靠出卖个人行为数据来换取产品使用权的模式。
More and more teams globally can step on the shoulders of giants in a very short period of time, build on existing smart contracts on the block chain, develop their own dapps, deploy with zero costs on the block chain, and operate at the expense of the users of the product, completely departing from the current pattern of users selling personal behaviour data in exchange for the right to use the product.
创业者将不得不学会寻找、召集、管理、激励一群从未见面的团队成员；将不得不学会从一开始就像上市公司管理股东一样管理自己的用户；将不得不学会设计和开发超出软件工程范围的激励经济体系设计。
Entrepreneurs will have to learn to find, convene, manage and motivate a group of team members who have never met; they will have to learn to manage their users like management shareholders of listed companies from the outset; and they will have to learn to design and develop incentive economic system designs that go beyond software engineering.
对于创业者，copy to China 或者对于美国的创业者copy QQ和TikTok的地区套利策略将不再可行，因为所有代码和用户开源，拷贝成为每一个人都能做的事情，而且区块链产品无国界，面临全球竞争。
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