文? |?棘轮 比萨
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“仿佛坐了一次过山车。”对以太坊近日的币价走势，投资者如是评价。
“It's as if you've been on a roller coaster.” For the recent currency movement in Etherom, investors would like to rate it.
在经历数月的下行后，以太坊在短短几天内，实现了超越币市平均水平的增长；随后，又掉头下跌。
After months of descent, in just a few days, Ether was able to achieve growth above the average currency market; subsequently, it turned back and fell.
在币价背后，以太坊社区正在酝酿一个跳票已久的计划——“君士坦丁堡”升级。在此之后，以太坊将逐渐从PoW转向PoS共识。
Behind the currency price, the community of Ether is developing a long-run plan, the “Constantinburg” upgrade. After that, Ether will gradually move from the PoW to the Pos consensus.
这意味着，以太坊挖矿收益将逐渐降低，直至归零。矿工会离场，但以太坊却有望迎来性能爆发。
This means that the profits from mining in Ether will be gradually reduced until zero.
无数的竞争者，正在对以太坊“公链之王”的地位虎视眈眈。以太坊的未来，仍然前途未卜。
Countless competitors are looking at Ether's position as “the king of the public chain.” The future of Ether's future is still uncertain.
01?过山车
♪ 01? ♪ b ♪ over the mountain ♪ ♪ b' over the mountain ♪ ♪ b' over the mountain ♪
大起，然后是大落：在达到近期高点——158美元不久，以太坊的价格开始迅速下挫。
The big one, then the big one: shortly after reaching its recent high — $158 — it began to fall quickly at the cost of the taupulega.
一直被唱衰的以太坊，曾经出人意料地走出了一轮犀利的上攻：短短6天，就从12月16日的年度最低点81.9美元，攀升至前述高点，大涨92%。
The Etherium, which has been sung down, was unexpectedly out of a sharp offensive: six days short, from the annual low of $81.9 on December 16, to the aforementioned high point, which rose by 92 per cent.
“以太坊价格重回四位数了。”12月24日，当以太坊被突然从128美元拉升至145美元（合人民币1000.38元）时，一位投资者感叹。
“There is a four-digit return at the Tatiya price.” On December 24, an investor lamented when the Tatiya was suddenly lifted from $128 to $145 (US$ 1000.38).
这句感叹颇让人心酸：2018年初，以太坊的价格还是1400美元，折合人民币约9627元，是目前的9倍有余。
This sarcasm is sad: in early 2018, at the price of $1,400 at Taicha, the equivalent of approximately $9627 is more than nine times the current value.
无论如何，随着以太坊前段时间的大涨，比特币、XRP、EOS等主流数字货币也全线大涨，24小时平均涨幅均超过了10%。
In any event, with the sharp rise in the pre-Etheria period, the mainstream digital currencies Bitcoin, XRP, EOS, etc., also rose sharply, averaging more than 10 per cent in the 24-hour period.
但好景不长，很快，以太坊价格便开始出现断崖式下跌。
But the good news is not long, and soon there will be a break-down in the price of the talisman.
暴跌始于12月24日23：00，1小时内，其价格由158美元跌至144美元，跌幅达8%。
The collapse began on 24 December at 2300 hours and fell from $158 to $144, a drop of 8 per cent.
随后又是一轮下跌。截至12月25日19:00，以太坊已跌至127.22美元，累计跌幅近20%。
This was followed by another round of decline. As at 25 December, Ethio had fallen to $127.22, with a cumulative decline of almost 20 per cent.
“我只想骂人，这样的玩法，只有国内的庄家做得出来。”一位投资者告诉一本区块链记者。
"I just want to scold people. Only domestic dealers can do this." An investor told a block chain reporter.
矿海会COO俞阳也认为，此次过山车行情，很可能是游资所为。
The mining association COO Yuyang also believes that the trip is likely to be carried out by the traveler.
所谓游资，即嗅觉灵敏、极度贪婪的流动资本。它们看准时机，闻风而动，快进快出。
The so-called swimming capital, which is mobile capital that is smelly, extremely greedy. They look on the clock, smell the wind, fast in and out.
支撑俞阳下这一判断的 ，是这次流入以太坊的资金多是USDT，拉盘的时间节点选在北京时间上午8：00，还有央视消息面配合。“大概率是中国的游资所为。”他说。
In support of Yuyang's judgment, the bulk of the funds that went into Etheria were USDT, which was selected at 8 a.m. Beijing time, with a close eye on the news. “It's probably China's travel capital,” he said.
急涨之后就急跌，这说明游资已经开始撤退。
The surge was followed by a sharp fall, which indicates that the withdrawal of the tourist funds has already begun.
而财经专栏作家殷浩天认为，此次币价波动，一个原因是多头与空头在博弈。
And the financial columnist Yin Ho-Chung believes that one of the reasons for the currency price fluctuations is that there is a lot of playing with nothing.
“比特币在4000美元这条价格线上，有很多空单，”殷浩天说，“多头利用拉升以太坊价格，带动比特币价格上涨，吃掉空单。”
“Bitcoin has a lot of blanks on the $4,000 price line,” Yin-ho says, “with a lot of pull-up and taupe-prices, it drives the price of bitcoin to rise and eat the blanks.”
为什么多头不直接拉升比特币价格？他表示，这反映出了数字货币市场的资金不足——主力资金不足以将比特币价格拉升至爆破空单的程度。
Why not directly raise the price of bitcoin? He said that this reflected the inadequacy of the digital money market — the main factor being insufficient to push the price of bitcoin to the point where it went up to the blast list.
这也从侧面印证，拉盘资金很可能来自游资。
This is also evidenced by the profile of the draw-up funds, which are likely to come from swimming resources.
他认为，急跌的另一个原因，是美股突然崩盘。
In his view, another reason for the crash was the sudden collapse of the American stock.
北京时间12月24日，美股惨烈下跌，三大股指跌幅均超过了2％。其中，标普500指数和纳指，已经跌入熊市。
On December 24, Beijing time, the United States stock fell sharply, with all three branches falling by more than 2 per cent. Among them, the Pip 500 index and the fingerlines have fallen into the bear market.
“美股的暴跌彻底击溃了投资者们的心理防线，导致他们恐慌性抛售。”他分析。
“The collapse of the United States stock flattened the psychological defenses of investors, leading them to panic and sell.” He analyzed.
02?“君士坦丁堡”升级
{\cHFFFFFF}{\cH00FFFF} Constantinople Upgrade
游资为何在此时关注以太坊？在众多外部原因之外，以太坊即将发起的“君士坦丁堡”升级，很可能是原因之一。
Why do you pay attention to the Etherms at this point? Among the many external reasons, the upcoming “Constantinburg” upgrade is probably one of the reasons.
以太坊的“君士坦丁堡”升级，究竟指的是什么？
What exactly does Ether's “Constantinburg” upgrade mean?
按照以太坊的路线图，以太坊从发布至今，将经历四个主要阶段，它们分别被命名为：前沿（Frontier）、家园（Homestead）、大都会（Metropolis）、宁静（Serenity）。
(b) > In accordance with the Etherkom's road map, the Taiyo has gone through four major phases since its launch, named Frontier, Homestead, Metropolis, Silence.
其中，第三阶段又被划分为两个部分——“拜占庭”与“君士坦丁堡”。它们都是土耳其著名城市伊斯坦布尔的古称。
The third phase is divided into two parts - the Byzantine and the Constantinople. These are the ancient names of the famous city of Istanbul in Turkey.
2017年10月，以太坊网络在第4370000区块高度，完成了拜占庭升级。按原定计划，2018年下半年，以太坊应完成君士坦丁堡升级。
In October 2017, at the height of block 437,000, the Itamin network completed the Byzantine upgrade.
但由于以太坊社区不断有新的EIP（Ethereum Improvement Proposal，以太坊改进建议）出现，时间被一再推迟。
However, time has been repeatedly delayed due to the continued presence of new EIPs in the Etherium Community (Etherium Improvement Proposal, Etheria Improvement Recommendations).
直到12月7日的以太坊核心开发者会议。会上，以太坊社区达成一致，计划于第7080000区块（2019年1月14日左右），进入君士坦丁堡阶段。
until 7 December, at the conference of Etheria core developers. At the meeting, the Etheraya community agreed that the 7080,000 block (about 14 January 2019) was scheduled to enter the Constantinople phase.
在这一阶段，以太坊的共识机制将由PoW逐渐转换为PoS，并最终进入完全PoS的“宁静”阶段。
> at this stage, the consensus mechanism in the Taiku will gradually be converted from PoW to PoS, and eventually into a full PoS “silence” phase.
按照计划，在君士坦丁堡阶段，以太坊的TPS、分片、状态通道、节点分布等性能指标，将得到全方面的提升。
During the Constantinople phase, it is planned that performance indicators such as TPS, fragments, state lanes, nodes distribution, etc. of the Tails will be upgraded in a comprehensive manner.
但与此同时，由于共识机制的更改，以太坊网络中的矿工，也面临着利益受损的情况。
At the same time, however, as a result of changes in the consensus mechanism, miners in the Etherm network also face a loss of benefits.
今年9月，以太坊社区发布了EIP-1234，计划将挖矿产生的区块奖励，由3ETH降至2ETH。这已经是以太坊社区与矿工群体互相妥协的结果——在今年4月的EIP-1011中，以太坊开发者甚至计划将奖励降低至0.6ETH。
In September this year, the Etherm Community released EIP-1234, which plans to reduce the incentive for mining blocks from 3 ETH to 2 ETH. This is already the result of a compromise between the community and the miners' community — in April this year, in EIP-1011, the Etherm developers even planned to reduce the incentive to 0.6 ETH.
从技术角度看，君士坦丁堡等大版本升级，本身即是一次“硬分叉”——只有认同升级的节点，才能继续加入以太坊网络。如果以太坊社区不能就升级达成一致，共识坍塌，便会导致新的以太坊分叉币产生。
From a technical point of view, major versions such as Constantinople are in itself a “hard fork” - only if the nodes of the upgrade are accepted can they continue to join the Etheria network. If the Etheraya community does not agree on the upgrade, the collapse of the consensus will lead to the creation of a new Ether fork.
回顾历史，以太坊也曾如比特币一样产生分叉币——以太经典（ETC）。
Looking back at history, Ether also produced the same coin as Bitcoin — Ether Classic (ETC).
2016年年中，以太坊上的明星ICO项目——The DAO遭遇黑客攻击，360万个ETH被盗走，约占当时以太坊总量的5%。在V神等社区领袖的呼吁中，以太坊在7月20日执行硬分叉，回滚了被盗的ETH。
In mid-2016, the Star ICO project in Etheria - The DAO was hit by hackers and 3.6 million ETHs were stolen, representing about 5% of the total number of ETHs in Etheria. In calls from community leaders like V God, Ether implemented a hard break on July 20, rolling back the stolen ETH.
但仍然有10%的以太坊社区成员，投票反对硬分叉。他们继续“留守”以太坊原链，以太经典（ETC）自此诞生。如今ETC的价格为4.7美元，总市值5.6亿美元，不及以太坊的5%。
But there are still 10% of the members of the Ethio community who voted against the hard fork. They continue to “stay” the Taipan chain, and since then have been born with a classic (ETC) price of $4.7 and a total market value of $560 million, less than 5% of Ethio.
因为君士坦丁堡升级，挖矿收益受损的矿工群体，可能成为新的“不稳定因素”。如果矿工联合抵制升级，以太坊网络便可能诞生出新的分叉币。
b> may become a new “unstable factor” because of the upgrading in Constantinople and the erosion of mining revenues. If miners join forces to resist the upgrading, a new fork in the network may be created.
以太坊会走上BCH的分叉之路吗？
Will the Etherms take the BCH fork?
“目前来看，应该不会，”网录科技副总裁李尼对一本区块链表示，“BCH分叉，是社区中出现了两股不同利益的对抗力量。而现在来看，以太坊社区中的绝大多数人，仍然是支持以太坊升级的。”
“For the time being,” Reenie, Vice-President of WebTech, said to a block chain, “BCH fork is antagonistic to the emergence of two different interests in the community. Now, the vast majority of the community in Ether is still supporting Ether upgrading.”
他认为，升级之后，以太坊降低了挖矿区块奖励。这和比特币四年一次的产量减半类似，对币价可能会是利好。
He argued that after the upgrade, Ether had reduced the incentive to dig blocks. This was similar to halving the four-yearly production of Bitcoin, which might be good for the currency.
以太坊矿工陈林也这样认为：“挖的币少了，但币价应该能涨，实际收益不一定会少。”他在甘肃酒泉部署了几十台以太坊显卡矿机。
The same goes for the Ether miner Chen Lin, who said: “The price of digging is small, but the price should rise, and the real gain is not necessarily low.” He deployed dozens of Ether card machines in the Gansu Spring.
与比特币挖矿行业常用的ASIC矿机不同，以太坊网络至今仍有大量矿机采用显卡挖矿。相比“专一的”ASIC矿机，显卡矿机可以挖以太坊、门罗币等多个币种。即便遭遇“矿难”，矿工们也可以把显卡卖给游戏玩家，矿机不会成为“废铁”。
Unlike the ACIS mine machine commonly used in the Bitcoin mining industry, there are still a large number of mine machines using card mining to date. Compared to the “one-size-fits-all” APIC mine, the “card-card mine” >b > machine can dig in a variety of currencies, such as the Tai clan and the Monroe. Even in the case of a “mine disaster”, miners can sell card cards to game players, and the miner does not become a “screw iron” > > > > >.
在陈林看来，这也是矿工难以主导以太坊硬分叉的原因之一。“以太坊和比特币不同，没有比特大陆这样代表矿工的‘巨头’，”他说，“没有足够强大的势力，能主导以太坊的分叉。”
This, in Chen Lin’s view, is one of the reasons why miners can’t dominate the hard fork in the courtyard. “ Unlike Ether and Bitcoin, there is no “big man” on the continent that represents the miners,” he says, “There is not enough power to dominate the fork in the courtyard.”
按照以太坊的升级计划，君士坦丁堡升级后，以太坊网络将引入“难度炸弹”。挖矿收益会逐步下调，直到降低为0。在收益下调过程中，所有矿工，都会出局。
According to the Etherburg upgrade plan, the Ether network will be introduced as a “hard bomb” when Constantinople is upgraded. The mining proceeds will be gradually reduced to zero.
“以太坊的白皮书，其实早已指出了路线图：暂时使用PoW，但终有一天，会进入完全的PoS时代，”李尼说，“整个社区，包括矿工们，对此都存在共识。”
“The White Paper of the Etherms has already pointed to the road map: the temporary use of the PoW, but one day it will enter the era of full PoS,” Reigny said, “the whole community, including the miners, has a consensus on it.”
03?未来
03? Future >
10月31日，在捷克布拉格，以太坊社区召开了第四届开发者大会。V神走上讲台，对台下近3000名开发者，阐述自己对于“以太坊2.0”的理解。在30分钟的演讲中，V神不停地挥舞着手臂，他标志性的粉色表带手表，在灯光下格外醒目。
On October 31, in Prague, Czech Republic, the Fourth Developer's Congress was held in the community of Ether. The V God came to the podium to explain his understanding of Ether 2.0 to nearly 3,000 developers under the stage. In his 30-minute speech, the V God waved his arms, his brandished pink watch with a watch, and was particularly visible under the light.
V神亮相以太坊第四届开发者大会
The Fourth Developer's Congress of the Great Euphoria.
“以太坊2.0能处理的交易量，比现有版本高出1000倍，”V神说，“这将让以太坊成为真正的世界计算机。”
“The amount of transactions that will be dealt with in Taiga 2.0 is 1,000 times higher than the current version,” says V. God, “This will make Ethio a real world computer.”
在经历了ICO退潮、币价下跌、公链竞品冲击等一系列挫折之后，君士坦丁堡升级，是以太坊朝着2.0时代迈进的必由之路。
After a series of setbacks, such as the retreat of the ICO, the fall in currency prices and the impact of public-chain competitions, Constantinople's upgrading was a necessary route towards the 2.0 era.
但以太坊仍然面临着巨大的挑战。DappRadar数据显示，以太坊平台当下最火爆的数款Dapp，近日日活用户均不足1000人。
But the Etheria still faces enormous challenges. The DappRadar data show that the hottest number of Dapps at the moment is less than 1,000 people living in recent days.
而EOS、波场等公链平台，在活跃用户、交易次数上，均已超越以太坊。这是共识机制带来的优势——相比以太坊，EOS、波场的TPS更高，且不收手续费。
and public-chain platforms such as EOS, waves, etc., have outperformed Ether in terms of active users and number of transactions. This is the advantage of the consensus mechanism - the EOS, waves, and TPS are higher and free of charge than the Ether. >
以太坊平台Top 5 Dapp日活用户数均不足1000
There are less than 1,000 daily users of Top 5 Dapp platform
“不过，现在的EOS、波场上，充斥着大量博彩游戏。以太坊的整体生态相对更加健康。”国内某公链项目负责人张康告诉一本区块链记者。
“However, there's a lot of game games on the EOS, the wave. The whole ecology of the community is relatively healthy.” Zhang Kang, the head of a public chain project in the country, told a block chain reporter.
DappRadar数据显示，EOS、波场以日活用户计算的Top 20 Dapp中，分别有14和12款为博彩类应用。而在以太坊平台，Top 20 的Dapp则大多为交易所、游戏类应用。
DappRadar data show that 14 and 12 of the EOS, Top 20 Dapps, calculated by daytime users, are colored applications. Most of the Dapps for Top 20 are exchange and game applications.
波场Top 5 Dapp中，有3个为博彩应用
Three of the Top 5 Dapps are for 根据DappRadar数据，以太坊平台在Dapp数量上也仍然存在优势。在DappRadar收录的1579个Dapp中，有1304个都基于以太坊平台，EOS、波场的Dapp数量，则分别只有226和49个。 According to DappRadar, there is still an advantage in the number of Dapps. Of the 1,579 Dapps recorded in DappRadar, 1304 are based on the Etheria platform, while the number of Dapps in EOS and the Band is only 226 and 49, respectively. “以太坊在Dapp数量上占据优势，但在增长速度上，EOS和波场却在超越以太坊。”张康说，直至今日，以太坊的TPS依然停留在20-30的水平。再不提升，其竞争力会越来越差。 (b>) “Etheria dominates the number of Dapps, but at the rate of growth EOS and the waves are going to go beyond Ether.” Zhang Quan said that the TPS of Ether is still at 20-30 levels today. If it doesn't rise, it will become less competitive. 投资者对以太坊的焦虑，直接表现在了币价上。自今年5月的小高点至今，以太坊的币价已跌去84.7%，是近半年来跌势最猛的主流币之一。 Investors’ anxiety about Ether is reflected directly in currency prices. Since the small height of May this year, Ether has fallen by 84.7 per cent, one of the sharpest major currencies in the last six months. “目前看来，近日炒作以太坊的游资，还在出货阶段。”俞阳告诉一本区块链记者，短期来看，以太坊的币价还会继续波动，直到这波游资完全退出。 “To date, it appears that the capital of the Etherm is currently in the pipeline.” Yuyang told a block chain reporter that, in the short term, the price of the Etherms would continue to fluctuate until the wave capital was completely withdrawn. 以太坊的灵魂人物V神，如今在Twitter上的ID为“不会送ETH的Vitalik”（Vitalik Non-giver of Ether）。此前以太坊币价高企时，Twitter上常有人冒充V神，以“送ETH”为名义诈骗钱财。随着以太坊币价的走低，诈骗者渐渐消失。 In Taiwan's soul figure, God V, today's ID on Twitter is Vitalik Non-Giver of Others. Previously, when the price was high, Twitter used to pretend to be V God, defrauding money in the name of sending ETH. As the price of Taiyin went down, the fraudsters disappeared. 如今，V神在Twitter上的主要工作，也由“抓骗子”转向了提振以太坊投资者的信心。12月10日，他连发15条Twitter，阐述自己对于Dapp与区块链的看法：“相比中央服务器，区块链不能降低计算成本。相反，区块链利用‘提升计算成本’的方式，降低了社会成本。” Today, the main work of God V on Twitter has also shifted from “catching liars” to boosting the confidence of Ether investors. On December 10, he posted 15 tweets explaining his view of Dapp and the block chain: “The block chain cannot be lower than the central server. “过去70年里，人工成本提升了2~10倍，但计算成本却降低了1万亿倍，”V神说，“以计算成本为代价，降低社会成本，显然是划算的。” “The cost of labour has increased by 2 to 10 times over the past 70 years, but the cost of calculation has been reduced by a trillion times”, says God V, “It is clearly cost-effective to reduce social costs at the cost of costing”. 如何权衡计算成本与社会成本，对于由PoW向PoS转型的以太坊，是一个难以抉择的难题。 The trade-off between costing and social costs is a difficult question for the Etherm, which has been transformed from PoW to PoS. 在公链市场中，EOS等竞品，正是依赖更低廉的计算成本，向以太坊发起了挑战。而以太坊则仍然在如何降低计算成本方面，反复取舍。 In the public-chain market, competitions such as EOS, relying on cheaper costing, challenge the Ether. The Ether also continues to miss out on how to reduce costing. 不进化，就死亡。这是颠扑不破的真理。 If you don't evolve, you die. That's the truth. 即将到来的“君士坦丁堡”升级，对以太坊无疑是利好。 The forthcoming “Constantinburg” upgrade is certainly good for Ether. 但在熊市中，任何风吹草动，都可能被资本作为拉盘割韭菜的工具。 In Bear City, however, any wind and grass can be used by capital as a tool for platter cutting. 这次是“君士坦丁堡”，下次是什么呢？ This is Constantinople. What's next? （应受访者要求，文中部分人物为化名。） (As requested by the interviewer, some of the characters in the text are aliases.
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