拍卖 | 为什么有人愿意花上千万买一个马赛克头像?透视CryptoPunks的市场潜力

资讯 2024-07-13 阅读:49 评论:0
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财富杂志(Fortune)在今年6月曾如此评论:“NFT是2021年最热门的资产,这是因为投资者并不满足于蓬勃的股市,并无时无刻不在寻找能超越它的投资物。”

Fortune commented this June: “NFT is the hottest asset in 2021, because investors are not content with a thriving stock market and are always looking for investments that can go beyond it.”

虽然这篇报道问世时,这个观点显得很不靠谱(因为6月NFT的交易量暴跌至1.6亿美元,不及巅峰的10%)。但仅仅两个月后一切就反转了,NFT市场迎来爆炸式的反弹。根据Dune Analytics的数据, 8月份,承接全球98%以上NFT交易的平台OpenSea交易额超过了30亿美元,环比7月的3.15亿美元大涨850%以上,创下了NFT单月交易的历史新高。

Although the story appeared unconvincing (since the volume of NFT transactions fell sharply to $160 million in June, less than 10% of the peak). In just two months, however, everything reversed and the NFT market rebounded. According to Dune Analytics, in August, the platform Open Sea, which hosted more than 98% of NFT transactions worldwide, reached more than $3 billion, a sharp increase of 850% over the $315 million in July, creating a historic high of NFT transactions. /span>

NFT的二次爆红,部分原因是加密货币从7月底至今正朝着历史高点快速回升,同时“币圈巨子”们仍又希望在不将虚拟货币转换为法币的情况下,将巨额资产多样化的意愿。此外,由于价格越来越贵,NFT在现实世界与社交媒体中的影响力也在逐步发酵,更多币圈之外的“FOMO”(Fear of Missing Out,错失恐惧症)资金加入其中,共同造就了第二次NFT浪潮。

NFT's second-time red, partly because encryption currency is rapidly returning to historical heights from the end of July to the present, while the “bill giants” still want to diversify their huge assets without converting virtual currency into French. Moreover, as prices become more expensive, the NFT's influence in the real world and social media is gradually fermenting, with more “FOMO” (Fear of missing Out, phobia) funds outside the currency joining, creating a second NFT wave.

虽然大抵来说,我认为这种增长难以持续,对于整体NFT艺术市场的长期也并不看好,但对于个别项目却有不同的看法,尤其是在在这股热潮中表现最好,也值得关注的项目之一:CryptoPunks(加密朋克)。

Although I find this growth unsustainable and not good for the long term in the overall NFT arts market, there are different views on individual projects, especially one of the best performances in this trend and one of the items of concern: CryptoPunks (encrypted punks).

烈火烹油的市场

根据行业跟踪网站CryptoSlam的数据, 8月份CryptoPunks的交易额冲到了6.72亿美元(占NFT市场20%以上),是该项目启动四年来的最高单月成交。而今年7月份,CryptoPunks的交易额才刚首次突破1亿美元,达到了1.35亿美元。 经由这一波成交高峰,Punks的历史总成交也来到了11.7亿美元,成为历史第二卖座的NFT(仅次于Axie Infinity)。

According to data from the industry tracking website CryptoSlam, reached a peak of $1.17 billion in the history of Punks, making it the second largest seller in history (after Axie Infinity).

点燃导火索的是Visa,这家巴菲特持股的著名的信用卡公司在8月23日宣布以49.5以太币(约合15万美元)的价格,买下CryptoPunk的第7610号,也标志着这家金融服务类名企正式进入NFT领域。

The spark was lit by Visa, a prominent credit card company with Buffett's shareholding announced on 23 August that it would purchase number 7610 from CryptoPunk at a price of 49.5 taels (approximately $150,000), also marking the official entry of the financial services business into the NFT field.

VISA购买的CryptoPunk#7610,是一个留着莫霍克发型、涂着口红和绿色眼影女朋克

在动辄上百万美元的CryptoPunk交易中,15万美元的价格其实不贵,甚至可以说非常低,接近当时的地板价(即可接受的最低价格)。但就像埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)接受比特币支付特斯拉,以及推特上为狗狗币站台等对虚拟货币的疯狂刺激一样,VISA的入局经过社交媒体和币圈的解读夸大,也制造了一波CryptoPunk抢购&涨价潮。

In a million-dollar CryptoPunk deal, the price of $150,000 is really not expensive or even very low, close to the price of the floor at the time (i.e., the lowest acceptable price). But just as Elon Musk accepted Bitcoin to pay Tesla and Twittered the frenzy of virtual currency, such as the dog price station, VISA's entry was exaggerated by social media and currency circles and created a wave of CryptoPunk buy-and-price surges.

据专注于NFT领域报道的新闻网站CoinDesk消息,就在Visa宣布购藏的消息发出后的一个小时后,就有90个“CryptoPunks”被交易。到8月23日下午,陆续有203个“CryptoPunks”售出,单日成交首次超过1亿美元。而到了8月28日,CryptoPunk的24小时成交额超1.43亿美元,再度刷新了单日成交纪录。

Cryptoslam追踪的CryptoPunk成交走势图,8月28日达到顶峰

CryptoPunk tracked by Cryptoslam reached its peak on 28 August .

CryptoPunks启动了一场革命

为什么以VISA为代表的新玩家将目标对准了CryptoPunk?

Why is the new player, represented by VISA, targeting CryptoPunk?

首先, 相较于如今市场上数不胜数的NFT项目,CryptoPunk的基本面是最好的(虽然谈论虚拟物品的基本面显得有点愚蠢,但我还是想这么说)。

First,

被誉为NFT鼻祖的CryptoPunk创制于2017年6月,当时NFT概念尚未完全确立,更没有市场。纽约软件公司Larva Labs原本是打算做一批手机app或游戏的头像,于是根据算法生成了1万个24 x 24像素的8-bit头像,每个都有自己随机生成的独特朋克外观和特征。

CryptoPunk, known as NFT's grandkid, was created in June 2017, when the concept of NFT was not fully established, much less marketable. New York software company Larva Labs originally intended to be the head of a cell phone app or game, and created 10,000 8-bit images of 24 x 24 pixels based on algorithms, each of which had its own unique punk look and features generated randomly.

原本Larva Labs是打算进行出售,但无人问津。于是他们改变打法,自留其中1000个头像,再把余下9000个免费发放给拥有以太坊钱包的用户,所有头像就被抢夺一空。

Larva Labs originally intended to sell, but no one asked. So they changed their methods, left 1,000 of them and distributed the remaining 9,000 free of charge to users with Etheria wallets, all of which were stolen.

玩家获得头像后,可以自由转卖。每个头像都有专属页页,仔细列明长相特征和完整交易记录。每件作品的拥有权记录均可追溯,会记录于区块链之中,于是形成了CryptoPunk的二级市场,也为现今NFT市场奠下基础。就像比特币永远是币圈人心目的信仰,横空出世的CryptoPunk也具有相似的历史地位。

The player is free to resell when he gets his head. Each header has an exclusive page that details his face and complete transaction record. The ownership record of each piece is traceable and recorded in the chain of blocks, forming the secondary market of CryptoPunk and laying the foundation for today's NFT market. Just like Bitcoin is always a popular belief in currency circles, CryptoPunk, which has a similar historical status.

其次,CryptoPunk的PFP模式,定下了此后大多数NFT项目的玩法。PFP项目最开始往往会一次性生成数千个NFT,所有NFT都使用一组固定的数据来通过算法组合在一起,整体数量有限,但每个又各不相同。通过这种方式,这类PFP项目的规模就会变得更大,而不像其他NFT类型那样作为一次性数字艺术而存在。

Second, CryptoPunk's PFP model sets out how most NFT projects will play since then. PFP projects often start to generate thousands of NFTs at once, and all NFTs use a set of fixed data to be combined by algorithms in a limited number, but each will vary. In this way, such PFP projects will be larger in size than other NFT types exist as a one-time digital art.

同时,每个看起来差不多的马赛克头像又根据性别、种族、、肤色、发饰、发型、纹身等多种随机因素各有不同。如10000个CryptoPunk头像中,男性角角占6039个,女性占3840个。余下还有88只绿皮肤僵尸、24只长毛猿猴、9个浅蓝色皮肤外星人。头像的稀有度,曝光度、以及买家群体的主观意愿会影响每一个头像的价格。

At the same time, each of the seemingly similar mosaic heads varies according to a variety of random factors such as sex, race, colour, hairdresser, hairstyle, tattoo, etc. Of 10,000 CryptoPunk heads, there are 6039 male horns and 38,840 female. The remaining 88 green-skinned zombies, 24 fur monkeys, nine light blue-skinned aliens. The rare size of the head, exposure, and the subjective will of the buyer group influences the price of each head.

Larvalabs官网上,目前最贵的12个CryptoPunk

Larvalabs officer online, currently the 12 most expensive CryptoPunk

目前以太坊链上价格最高的CryptoPunk是3100号,它是9个“外星人”之一,2021年3月11日以758万美元(折合人民币4900万)价格交易。值得注意的是,价格最高的前10个“朋克”全部都是2021年交易的,其中2个是“外星人”系列,3个是“猿”,5个是“僵尸”。7252号和2140号两次交易都上榜,前者在8月24日刚刚以约合533万美元价值成交。

The highest price in the tatai chain is now 3100 CryptoPunk, which is one of nine “aliens” traded on March 11, 2021 at a price of $7.58 million (equivalent to 49 million RMB). It is worth noting that the top 10 punks with the highest price were all traded in 2021, two in the “aliens” series, three in the “apes” series, five in the “zombies” series.

而在传统拍卖行里,最贵的CryptoPunk是6月10日在苏富比网拍里成交的7523号,以1175万美元(折合人民币7600万)成交。所谓物以稀为贵,这一头像同样是9个“外星人”之一,同时也是唯一一个带著口罩的图形,反映也忠实记录了当今人类史无前例的一种生活样貌。

and in the traditional auction house, the most expensive CryptoPunk is number 7523, dated 10 June at Sufobi, which is dealt with at $11.75 million (equivalent to 76 million RMB). So-called rare, the head is also one of nine “aliens” and is the only figure with a mask that reflects a true record of life as never before in human history.

以1175万美元天价成交的CryptoPunk#7523

CryptoPunk#7523 at a daily price of $11.75 million.

这让NFT更像是传统收藏品,能在更广泛人群中流行起来,并让他们将某种性格与角色联系起来,甚至最终形成“粉丝圈”。目前最热门的项目Bored Ape Yacht Club(猴子)、Mutant Ape Yacht Club(突变猴)、Meebits(直角肩)、The Doge Pound(狗狗)虽然走上其他不同的美学风格,但内核大多沿用了PFP模式。

, which makes NFT more like a traditional collection, popular in the wider population, and allows them to associate a certain personality with their role, or even eventually form a “fine circle”. The current hottest project, Bored Ape Yacht Club (monkey), Mutant Ape Yacht Club (transformed monkey), Meebits (directed shoulder), The Doge Pound (dog) has followed the PFP model, although in other aesthetic styles.

Bored Ape Yacht Club

Mutant Ape Yacht Club

Meebit

The Doge Pound

除此之外,CryptoPunk也是NFT中最快破圈的。除了VISA等众多品牌入局外,7月7日,迈阿密艺术博物馆(ICA Miami)宣布收藏“CryptoPunks”中的5293号,这也是第一件进入主流博物馆收藏体系的NFT作品。苏富比、佳士得早在几个月之前也以高价出售过多个CryptoPunk。众多因素加持,都塑造了CryptoPunk稳固的基本面。

In addition, CryptoPunk is the fastest in the NFT. In addition to numerous brands such as VISA, on 7 July, the Miami Museum of Art announced the collection of 5293 CryptoPunks, the first NFT to enter the mainstream museum collection system.

迈阿密艺术博物馆收藏的CryptoPunk 5293号

CryptoPunk的市场潜力

CryptoPunk's Market Potential

我看好CryptoPunk的原因,除了它是NFT市场快速牛熊转换中整体价格波动影响相对最小、护盘人最多的项目外。还因为这个项目的设计感,已经成为代表币圈人士和爱好者最偏好也最常使用的图案。以币圈人士使用社群媒体首选的推特帐号来说,若以#NFT为关键字搜寻,几乎10个帐号中就有至少一位以CryptoPunks作为头像,足以证明认同或喜爱这个设计的比例很高,其社交货币属性越发明显。

The reason why CryptoPunk is well known, except for the fact that it is one of the projects in the NFT market that has the lowest impact on overall price volatility and has the highest number of frigates. And because of the design sense of the project, it has become the most favoured and commonly used image of currency circles and fans. For #NFT's preferred Twitter account, there are at least one in 10 accounts with CryptoPunks as a head image to prove that the design has a high degree of acceptance or love, and that its social currency attributes are more evident.

Jay-Z和CryptoPunk的漫画,图片来源:BSC News

Jay-Z and CryptoPunk, photo source: BSC News

第二、CryptoPunks像素风在艺术上并非原创(如法国艺术家Invader即为这类「像素」风格创作者之先驱),但这系列却在推出之后,确立了这个同时带有时代科技感,并在同中求异的各别人像的鲜明个性中,达到当代艺术中,大受欢迎且符合「高辨识度」需求的商业特色,起义后甚至有机会发展成上万名带有独立个性IP的潜力,将来衍伸发展出如《辛普森家族》般的剧集或游戏(如当红的游戏结合NFT项目Axie Infinity),甚至更进一步发展成CryptoPunks宇宙,延伸处包括故事、公仔、影片等衍生性周边都不令人意外。

.

第三, 在币圈中具有指标性意义的"大鳄级“NFT收藏组织Flamingo DAO的实时收藏中,CryptoPunks的库存数量有增无减,且居各种NFT收藏品中前三位,达215个(考虑到CryptoPunks较高的平均价格,这应该是该组织仓位最重的项目)。这个去中心化组织的投资者各个大有来头,在币圈中都有一呼百应的本事。对习于FOMO的高端区块链社群来说,大鳄们的所作所为自然会成为重要的参考依据。

iii, in the real-time collection of the "NFT collection" of "Flamingo DAO" in the currency circle, the stock of CryptoPunks continues to grow and is among the top three of the various NFT collections, 215 (this should be the organization's most important project given the higher average price of CryptoPunks). The investors of the decentralised organization have a hundred-and-one-hundred-percent role in the currency ring.

CryptoPunks在街头广告牌上,图片:dia dipasupil / getty images

尽管NFT正迅速成为主流,但这个新兴行业的人气飙升也伴随着风险。就像加密衍生品交易所FTX的首席执行官萨姆·班克曼-弗里德最近接受CNBC采访时所说的:“这可能会导致难以置信的利益和财富。但如果哪天飞机坠毁了,而没人弄清楚发生了什么,人们的嘴里也会有酸味。”

Although NFT is fast becoming the mainstream, there are risks associated with this new industry. As Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the encrypted derivatives exchange FTX, said in a recent interview with the CNBC: “This could lead to incredible benefits and wealth.

-END-

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