比特幣目前實質上再度處於一個尷尬的境地，是回調蓄勢還是上攻力竭？比特幣的後市行情將如何發展？本輪牛市上漲與之前大不相同，本文從推動比特幣行情發展的主要因素分析，對比特幣後市行情進行展望。
The Bitcoins are now in an awkward position again in terms of materiality, whether to return to the balance or to fight out. How will the Bitcoins’ post-market situation develop? This paper analyses the main factors driving the Bitcoins’ post-market development.
對於本輪牛市的行情上漲，市場中有多種不同觀察，從目前行情變化看，其中機構對比特幣ETF增減持是非常重要的一個影響因素；除此之外，與美聯儲利率政策相關的資訊和數據也較為顯著的影響比特幣的行情變化。本文先將重點分析這兩個推動因素。
In addition, information and data related to the US Federal Reserve interest rate policy are more pronounced than changes affecting the Bitcoins. This paper focuses on the two drivers.
在比特幣ETF通過後，機構對比特幣ETF的需求變化可以大致分為三個階段。從下圖可以看出（數據截止6月15日），第一階段內機構大量增持比特幣ETF，其需求量非常強勁；在第二階段，機構對增持比特幣ETF的需求明顯下降，拋售量甚至一度超過增持；在第三個階段，機構對比特幣ETF的需求較第二階段有一定回升，但是較第一期明顯回落。
After the adoption of the Bitcoins ETF, the agency’s demand for the Bitcoins ETF can be roughly divided into three stages. As can be seen from the following graph (as of 15 June), the demand for the Bitcoins ETFs has increased substantially in the first phase, which is very strong; in the second phase, the demand for the Bitcoins ETFs has dropped markedly, and the volume of sales has even increased more than ever; and in the third phase, the agency’s demand for the Bitcoins ETFs has recovered somewhat from the second phase, but has fallen sharply over the first.
第一階段比特幣ETF需求很大的原因是什麼？本文認為這是機構累積已久需求的釋放，某種意義上還帶有搶籌的意義。但這種需求在比特幣達到7萬美元左右之後，市場上升動能驟減，拋售加大，顯示出機構需求開始趨於放緩。從更深層來看，這意味著機構策略開始從搶籌變成策略建倉（高拋低吸），一旦其認為價格過高便傾向於拋售。在這個轉變的過程中，頗具標誌性的事件是貝萊德的比特幣持倉超越在加密市場耕耘多家的灰度，這就像在一場接力賽中，原先的加密巨頭正式將話語權交接給傳統華爾街巨頭。
But, after the Bitcoins reached around $70,000, the market surge became less dynamic and the sale increased, indicating that demand for the infrastructure began to slow down. From a deeper perspective, this means that the institution’s strategy began to move from a recovery to a strategic build-up (high drop-down) and to sell once it felt that the price was too high. In this transition, the marked event was that Beléd’s Bitcoat held more than the dust of his family working in an encrypted market, as in a relay, the original cryptographic giant officially handed over speech rights to a traditional Wall Street giant.
第三階段中比特幣ETF需求回升說明了什麼？ 5月1日，比特幣ETF資金出現大量拋售，比特幣價格大幅回落至5,8,307美元，隨後比特幣ETF再次開始出現增持趨勢。這或意味著58,000美元是比特幣較為合適的買入價。這或許也是由比特幣的挖礦成本決定的。
What is the recovery of the Bitcoin ETF’s demand in the third phase? On May 1, a massive sale of the Bitcoin ETF’s capital occurred, and the Bitcoin’s price fell sharply to US$5,8,307, and then the Bitcoin ETF began to grow again.
4月20日，比特幣完成第四次減半，伴隨區塊獎勵減半，其收入直接減少一半，也會讓礦工的挖礦成本顯著提升。 The Block Pro 數據顯示，5 月BTC 礦工收入（由於4 月的第四次減半事件）較上季減少46%，達到9.63 億美元。由於比特幣礦工收支變化，這也會影響其投資決策，從其拋售行為和挖礦成本可以為比特幣投資提供一個買賣參考價。
The Block Pro data show that BTC miners’ revenues in May (as a result of the fourth half reduction in April) were 46% lower than in the previous season, reaching $963 million. As a result of the shift in Bitcoal miners’ revenues and payments, this would also affect their investment decisions, and the cost of dumping and digging could provide a price for the BITC dollar.
6月13日，CryptoQuant 在X 平台發文表示，比特幣礦工面臨壓力，已開始拋售，近期礦池轉移、OTC 交易量激增，以及大型上市礦企減持現象顯著。比特幣價格在6.9-7.1 萬美元之間波動時，礦工加強了拋售力度。數據顯示，6 月10 日，礦工透過OTC 交易賣出1,200 枚比特幣，創下兩個月來的最高日交易量。此外，主要的美國比特幣公司也加強了拋售力道。
On June 13, CryptoQuant sent a message on platform X indicating that the miners were under pressure and had begun to sell, that the recent transfer of the pits, the surge in OTC transactions, and the decline in large-scale listed mining companies were evident. Bitcoin prices increased their sales when they waved between $6.9 and $7.1 million. Data show that on June 10, miners sold 1,200 bits of bitcoins through the OTC deal, the highest amount ever recorded in two months.
從幣印官網數據觀察，截止6月15日，螞蟻S19等礦機已達關機價，另外有相當大一部分礦機的關機價在60000美元附近，這也是行情在此能得到支撐的主要原因。
According to the money-printer network data, as of 15 June, mines such as ants S19 had reached a cut-off price, and a significant portion of them had a cut-off price near $60,000, which is the main reason why the situation could be sustained here.
綜合來看，礦工的拋售行為暗示比特幣價格在6.9-7.1 萬美元時或是短期一個較為合適的賣出價，而很大一部分礦工的礦工機價在58900-63300美元區間，這或是短期較為合適的一個買入價。這與上文中比特幣ETF趨勢變化可進行一定印證，他們彼此具備較強關聯。
Taken together, the miner’s sale suggests that the Bitcoin price is at 6.9-7.1 thousand dollars or a short-term more appropriate price, while a large proportion of the miners’ miner’s price is in the $58900-63300 area, or a short-term more appropriate purchase price. This is a certain proof of the change in the Bitcoin ETF position above, and they are more closely related to each other.
美國宏觀經濟政策和數據對比特幣的影響非常直接，一旦有利於聯準會降息的數據和會議聲明等出現，比特幣上漲機率就大幅上升；反之亦然。
The impact on the Bitcoin of the United States's grand economic policy and data is very direct, and once data and statements of meetings that favour interest reduction in the Union appear, the rate of increase in the Bitcoins rises dramatically; vice versa.
6月7日，美國5 月季調後非農就業人口增加27.2 萬人，為今年3 月來最大增幅，高於市場預期，較上月的17.5 萬人大幅走高。非農業數據超市場預期，顯示美國經濟依然強勁，市場因而對聯準會降息預期下降，比特幣也隨即出現大幅回落，打破先前上漲趨勢。
On June 7, after the May shift, the number of non-farmers in the United States increased by 272,000, the largest increase in March this year, up from the market forecast of 175,000 last month. The non-farm data supermarket forecast shows that the United States economy remains strong, resulting in a fall in interest on the association, and a sharp fall in bitcoins, breaking the previous upturn.
隨後，6月12日，美國勞工統計局數據顯示，美國5 月整體CPI 環比持平，4 月該指數上升0.3%。自2 月和3 月公佈穩健數據以來，CPI 一直呈下降趨勢。分析師Chris Anstey 指出，這實際上是第一個通膨報告良好的月份，需要再有幾份這樣的好報告，這樣才能真正讓聯準會在9 月降息。受美國5月CPI降溫影響，市場增加聯準會9月降息預期，比特幣也跟著大幅反彈。
Subsequently, on June 12, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed that the United States had a flat overall CPI ring in May and a 0.3 per cent increase in the index in April. CPI has been declining since February and March, when stable data were released. Analyst Chris Ansty noted that this was actually the first good inflation report, and that several more such reports would be needed in order for the union to actually fall in September.
隨後在6月14日-15日，聯準會發布例會聲明：聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)自4月會議以來獲得的資訊顯示，就業市場改善的步幅已經放緩，儘管經濟活動成長看來已加快。雖然失業率下降，但就業人數增幅減少。家庭支出成長增強。自年初樓市持續改善，淨出口對經濟的拖累看來已減輕，但企業固定投資疲軟。基於市場的通膨補償指標下滑，多數基於調查的指標顯示，近幾個月較長期通膨預期基本上變動不大。受這份報告影響，比特幣在出現下跌之後，目前企穩，從某種意義上看宏觀影響實質上在減弱。
Subsequently, on 14-15 June, the League issued a statement that, according to information obtained by the Federal Public Markets Commission (FOMC) since its April meeting, improvements in the market had been slowed, although economic activity had grown faster. The unemployment rate had declined, but the growth in the number of workers had decreased. Household spending had increased considerably.
整體來看，宏觀政策的影響具有長期性；同時，在某些重要數據公佈的關鍵節點，其對比特幣的影響則有極強的顯著性。隨著關鍵數據的公佈結束，比特幣重新回到一個平衡，市場的多空博弈也再次開始。
Overall, the impact of macro-economic policies is long-term; at the same time, at key points in some important data bulletins, the impact on bitcoins is extremely pronounced. As key data are released, bitcoins return to a balance, and market multi-air games begin again.
我曾在先前多篇文章中提及，支持比特幣發展的真正原因或說本質原因是其自身的技術發展。比特幣的技術發展雖然緩慢，但每一次技術發展都能驅動一場金融繁榮。 2023年爆紅的銘文，以及之後的符文等等，最主要的根源就是Taproot升級。
In a number of previous articles, I mentioned that the real reasons for supporting the development of the bitcoins, or the underlying reasons, were their own technological advances. Bitcoins’ technological advances, though slow, drove a financial boom every time they developed.
2024年，比特幣也將迎來一系列重要升級，例如支援比特幣上的表達智能合約BitVM 、上線Taproot Assets 主網、OP_CAT 提案、OP_TXHASH 提案草案、Lightning Timeout Trees、更新的Musig 2 提案、BIP- 324 – V2 傳輸等。在實現一系列升級之後，便能不斷解鎖許多新的用例。我們已經看到很多比特幣Layer2計畫誕生，為比特幣的金融版圖開疆拓土。 6月7日，以太坊Layer2龍頭Starknet 也宣布進軍比特幣，而其中的關鍵要看OP_CAT 提案能否通過。本文相信，隨著越來越多比特幣技術升級，將會產生越來越多的應用場景和用例，從推動比特幣及其生態發展。
In 2024, Bitcoins will also receive a number of important upgrades, such as the support for BitVM, the frontline Taproot Assets main network, OP_CAT, OP_TXHASH draft proposal, Lighting Timeout Trees, the updated Musig 2 proposal, and the BIP-324-V2 transmission. After a series of upgrades have taken place, many new cases will remain open.
從目前數據來看，比特幣生態發展仍處於初期，之前熱炒的符文、銘文以及比特幣二樓開始進入生態建設期。以比特幣Layer2龍頭Merlin為例，Defillama數據顯示，截止6月15日，Merlin月度資金流入增長162%，是前十公鍊和二層中增長最快的；目前其TVL資金達11.96億美元，名列第八，在短短幾個月內已然超過許多老牌公鏈。
According to the current data, the birth rate of the Bitcoins is still in its early stages, before the booming sculptures, essays, and the second floor of the Bitcoins began to develop. In the case of the Biter 2 Dragon Merlin, Devillama data show that, as of 15 June, Merlin’s monthly inflow had increased by 162%, the fastest increase in the top 10 bars and second tiers; its TVL currently stands at $1,196 million, eighth in rank, and has surpassed many of its old public chains in just a few months.
從技術上來看，比特幣新提案OP_CAT或將成為下一輪比特幣上漲的主要推動因素和核心因素，一旦其正式合併到比特幣Core代碼中，無疑將大幅推動比特幣生態發展，並帶動BTC價格攀升。從宏觀來看，伴隨利率點陣圖整體上移，2024年中位數利率從4.6%上調至5.1%，這意味著年內或僅降息1次，9月降息機率有所上升。從中期行情上看，比特幣或許迎來金九銀十。從短期行情來看，比特幣礦工行為和礦工機價提供了一個買賣參考價：底部區間在58900-63300美元；短期頂部區間在69000-71000 美元。
Technically, the new Bitcoin proposal OP_CAT may be the main driving force and core factor for the next round of the Bitcoin up. Once it is formally merged into the Bitcore code, the Bitcoin will undoubtedly be substantially pushed to develop and bring BTC prices up. From a very large perspective, with interest rate points moving up as a whole, the median interest rate in 2024 rose from 4.6 per cent to 5.1 per cent, which means that interest rates will fall one time per year and only one more time in September. From a medium-term perspective, the Bitcoins may be in the range of nine to ten. From a short-term perspective, Bitcoin provides a buy-and-for-work margin: $58900-63,300 at the bottom; and $69,000-71,000 at the top of the short term.
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