本文来自：零售资本论，作者：财报分析师
Source: Retail Capitals, Author: Financial Analyst
普通人谈论梦想，大佬们买卖梦想。
Ordinary people talk about dreams, big guys buy dreams.
一年前的饿了么，一年后的网易考拉，阿里一共花了115亿美元（95亿+20亿）分别买了张旭豪的“外卖梦”和丁磊的“电商梦”。
Hungry a year ago, Ekola, a year later, Ali spent $11.5 billion (9.520 billion) on buying Xu-Hu's “Extortion Dream” and Ding's “Electoral Dream”.
丁磊的“电商梦”与“再造一个网易”的重任
Ding Ding's "Energy Dream" and "Recreation of a Web Easy" are the most important tasks.
网易涉足电商，并不是小打小闹，而是有野心的，源于丁磊未完成的“电商梦”。
The Internet is not easy to access, but rather ambitious, from the unfinished “electricist dream” of Ding Ding.
早在2003年的时候，他就在网易商贸频道上线了囊括网上拍卖、虚拟社区、收费主页、同城约会等服务的产品，类似于后来的B2C模式，只不过由于假货问题一直难以解决，才就此作罢。
As early as 2003, he had been on-line on Internet-based trade channels to include products such as online auctions, virtual communities, fee home pages, inter-city dating, etc., similar to the later B2C model, which had been abandoned only because the issue of fake goods had been difficult to resolve.
时间倒回至2014年7月，海关总署接连出台了两项“政策红利”——“56号”文件（《海关总署公告2014年第56号（关于跨境贸易电子商务进出境货物、物品有关监管事宜的公告）》）和“57号”文件（《海关总署公告2014年第57号（关于增列海关监管方式代码的公告）》）。
In July 2014, the General Customs Administration issued two successive “policy dividends” — document No. 56 (Customs Bulletin No. 56 of 2014 (Valstybės Žinios, 2014) on electronic commerce in cross-border trade in goods and goods related to regulation) and document No. 57 (Valstybės Žinios, 2014 (Valstybės Žinios, 2014) on additional customs control codes.
两份文件都从政策层面上承认了跨境电商，更重要的是，里面有一条规定：通过跨境电商渠道购买的海外商品只需要缴纳行邮税，免去一般进口贸易的“关税+增值税+消费税”，这意味着成本大大降低，相当于为跨境电商撕开了一道突破口。
Both documents recognize cross-border power suppliers at the policy level and, more importantly, include a provision that overseas goods purchased through the channels of cross-border electricity providers are subject only to postage taxes and are exempted from “customs + value added tax + consumer tax” on general import trade, which means that costs are significantly reduced, amounting to a breakthrough for cross-border electricity suppliers.
在这样的背景下，丁磊找到张蕾全盘托出想要做跨境电商的想法，并提出由她当CEO。
Against this background, Ding Yi found Zhang Lei's idea of being a cross-border electrician and proposed that she be a CEO.
毕业于北京理工大学通讯与信息工程专业的张蕾，是典型的技术派，也是网易老员工。自2003年起，先后在技术部、虚拟电商、网易支付金融做过。
Zhang Lei, who graduated from Beijing Polytechnic University in the field of communication and information engineering, is a typical technologist and an older network worker.
项目启动后，张蕾与丁磊保持密切联系，上午与保税区洽后，回程上就直接与丁磊进行电话沟通，晚上工作结束前再发一份当日总结汇报过去。
After the start of the project, Zhang Lei maintained close contact with Ding Ding, who was directly contacted by telephone on his return journey after contact with the tax collection area in the morning, and a summary report of the same day was issued before the end of the evening's work.
此外，张蕾在杭州网易大厦的办公室紧挨丁磊。众所周知，网易内部一度盛传“丁磊最重视哪块业务，就让哪个业务的人搬到他办公室旁边”。
In addition, Zhang Lei’s office in the Hangzhou Internet building is stunned. It is well known that the Internet itself once spreads the phrase “What business is of the highest importance is that of which business person is moved to his office”.
2015年1月9日，主打“自营”的网易考拉海购（如今更名为网易考拉）开始公测，销售品类涵盖母婴、美容彩妆、家居生活、营养保健、环球美食、服饰箱包、数码家电等。
On 9 January 2015, an Internet-based “self-employed” mecoola (now called meso-coola) was introduced for public monitoring. Sales range includes mother and child, beauty makeup, living at home, nutritional care, global food, clothing kits, digital home appliances, etc.
相比天猫、京东、聚美优品等综合性平台，主打“自营”的网易考拉存在天然的短板——品类拓展速度很慢。
The Internet-based “home-run” mecoola has a natural short-board — product-type expansion that is very slow compared to integrated platforms such as Skycat, Kyouta and Fountain.
张蕾曾坦承：
Zhang Lei has said:
“相对于大型平台模式的电商，网易考拉的品类还不够丰富”。
“Web-e-Cola is not sufficiently rich than a power provider with a large platform model”.
不过，丁磊“再造一个网易”的决心给足了网易考拉弹药：除了200亿美元的现金流，还有网易主要流量入口和网易邮箱的7亿用户流量。
However, Ding's determination to “re-create a web-friendly” gives mercola ammunition: in addition to $20 billion in cash flows, there are 700 million users of mesh access points and e-mail boxes.
并且还亲自带队远赴韩国考察美妆品类，一口气签下了十数个美妆品牌，为网易考拉品类填补大量空缺。
He also took a personal team to the Republic of Korea to study cosmetics, where he signed dozens of make-up brands to fill a large number of vacancies in the e-Colapin category.
这种种努力很快体现在财报上，零售资本论分析师根据网易2016年Q4财报显示，以网易考拉海购为首的电商业务迎来高速增长，全年净收入为36.99亿元人民币，同比增长235.7%，成为网易的“造血”新业务。
These efforts were quickly reflected in the financial statements, where retail capital analysts, based on the 2016 Q4 finance report, showed a high rate of growth in the electricity vendor business, led by the Internet-based e-Kola, with a net annual income of RMB 3,699 million, compared with 235.7 per cent, becoming a new web-friendly “blood-making” business.
只不过，就在张蕾攻城略池之际，腥风血雨不断袭来。
It's just that, just as Zhang Lei attacked the city's pool, the storm continued to rain.
先是海关发布一项让跨境电商哀嚎遍野的政策变动：从2016年4月8日开始，保税仓征收11.9%的税收；随后，网易考拉卷入“假货”漩涡，去年初被指控平台上售卖的雅诗兰黛小棕瓶眼霜为非正品，年底又被爆出加拿大鹅的“罗生门”事件。
First, Customs issued a policy change that would allow cross-border electricians to mourn: 11.9 per cent of the tax revenue was collected by the bonded warehouse starting on 8 April 2016; then, the Internet was involved in the “false” vortex, and the Yaschilande eye cream, which was accused of selling on the platform at the beginning of last year, was unorthodox, and at the end of the year it was blown out of the “Rosing Gate” of the Canadian goose.
再对比网易2018年第四季度财报、全年财报和2017年四季度财报，可以发现网易电商业务营收增速从175%下降至64.8%，整体下降2.7倍。
A further comparison between the fourth quarter of 2018, the full year and the fourth quarter of 2017 shows that the rate of growth in the operation of the Internet trader declined from 175 per cent to 64.8 per cent, with an overall decline of 2.7 per cent.
而在2019年二季度，网易电商的增速更是进一步放缓，只有20%左右，与2016年高峰时期的275%增长相比，缩水了近十倍。
In the second quarter of 2019, however, the growth rate of Internet-enabled power suppliers slowed further, at about 20 per cent, a decline of almost ten times compared with the 275 per cent increase during the peak period in 2016.
增速放缓的同时，网易电商的毛利率相比上一季度的10.2%，在2019年二季度中虽然上升了0.7%。但相比京东在2019年二季度的14.72%、阿里巴巴2019年一季度的45%，依旧远低于行业平均水平的毛利率。
At the same time that growth slowed, the Māori rate for Internet-accessors increased by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2019, compared with 10.2 per cent in the previous quarter. But it remained well below the industry average, compared with 14.72 per cent in the second quarter of 2019 and 45 per cent in the first quarter of 2019 in Alibaba.
在网易2018年四季度财报发布时，网易严选CEO柳晓刚表示，严选的毛利率要远高于4.5%，每一单都有利润，这是否意味着利润率低的原因是考拉在“拖后腿”。
At the time of the publication of the web-friendly quarterly financial report in 2018, the Web-based selection of CEO Xiaogang indicated that the rigorous selection rate was well above 4.5 per cent and that each item had a profit, which meant that the low profit rate was due to the fact that Kola was “drawn behind”.
一个就要亏损的梦，是时候醒醒了
A dream of loss. It's time to wake up.
由网易严选“托高”的10.9%的毛利率对比整个零售电商行业来看也并不算亮眼：2019年Q2，京东整体毛利率在14.7%，唯品会为22.4%，阿里巴巴为46%。
The 10.9 per cent Māori rate, which is easily chosen by the Internet as “to-high”, is not as bright as it is in the retail power industry as a whole: in 2019 Q2, the overall Māori rate in Kyungdong was 14.7 per cent, with 22.4 per cent for the albaa and 46 per cent for the Aribaba.
从自营模式另外一套衡量指标存货来看，网易电商的表现也并不出挑。
On the basis of a separate set of indicators for the self-employment model, the performance of Internet-friendly traders is not selective either.
零售资本论分析师通过财报显示，从2017年Q4开始的连续7个季度中，网易电商的平均存货为51亿元，其中有5个季度，存货的金额都要高于现金及现金等价物的金额。
Retail capital analysts have shown, through their financial statements, that the average inventory of Internet users was $5.1 billion for seven consecutive quarters starting with Q4 in 2017, of which five were in excess of the amount of cash and cash equivalents.
2018年Q3，网易电商的存货达到峰值的63亿元。
In Q3 in 2018, the stock of Internet-friendly power providers reached a peak of 6.3 billion yuan.
其次则是网易电商库存周转的低效：2018年，网易电商的库存周转大概为104天，同年京东库存周转天数仅在30天左右。
The second is the inefficiency of the inventory turnover of the mesh vendor: in 2018, the inventory turnover of the mesh provider was approximately 104 days, and in the same year it was only about 30 days in Kyoto.
为此，从2018年底开始，网易不得不采取各式促销方式清理库存，2018年Q4库存缩减至50亿元，2019年Q1缩减至43亿元，经过两个季度的快速销存货后，2019年Q2，网易电商存货仍然在40亿元的高位。
As a result, since the end of 2018, the network has had to clean up its inventory in a variety of marketing methods, reducing its inventory to $5 billion in 2018, Q1 to $4.3 billion in 2019 and, after two quarters of rapid stock sales, Q2 in 2019, the inventory of Internet-friendly traders remains at a high of $4 billion.
疯狂清理库存的行为也让网易电商业务毛利率下探至2018年Q4的4.5%，盈利似乎遥遥无期。
The frenzied clean-up of stocks has also led to the discovery of 4.5 per cent of Q4 in 2018 by the Māori rate of operation of Internet-friendly power providers, which seems to be a distant profit.
假货问题不断、亏损即将到来，丁磊的“电商梦”终于到了醒的时候。
Fake goods problems and losses are on the verge of coming, and ding-ding's “electricist dream” is finally awakening.
当梦醒时刻，又如何参透这一句“无论外界如何改变，我就一条：做事，做成一件件的事”，看起来能让张蕾甚至更多人都倍感热血并甘为他人梦想而奋斗的丁氏格言呢？
When a dream wakes up, how can it be understood that “however the outside world changes, I just do one thing: do one thing and do one thing”, and what does it look like to make Zhang Lei and even more people feel bloodier and struggle for the dreams of others?
那么，在丁磊的内心深处，网易考拉是谁做成的一件事呢？张蕾、刘鹏，还是丁磊？
So, at the heart of Ding Ding, who did one thing? Zhang Lei, Liu Ping, or Ding Ding?
什么又是“做成”呢？卖了20亿美元，算是做成了吗？
What's "finished"? Did you sell $2 billion?
“周五官宣，张蕾走，刘鹏（天猫进出口事业群总经理）接任CEO。”
“On Friday, the officer announced that Zhang Lei had left and Liu Peng (General Manager of the Cat Import and Export Group) took over as CEO.”
面对成败的考问和这满城的风雨，听着人们谈论这20亿美金的丁磊“电商梦”和未来跨境电商格局，张蕾又在想什么，该何去何从？
In the face of the question of success or failure and the storm of the city, where should we go when people talk about the $2 billion "the electricity merchant dream" and the future pattern of cross-border electricity dealers?
梦想还是要有的，万一能卖115亿美金呢？
Dreams have to be. What if it's $11.5 billion?
在阿里18年周年年会上，马云说：可以失去一切，不能失去理想。
At the annual anniversary conference of Ali 18, Maun said that everything could be lost and that ideals could not be lost.
早在18年前，马云和所有的年轻人都一样，曾经也很羡慕比尔盖兹，羡慕乔布斯那般成功。
Eighteen years ago, Maun, like all young people, envied Bill Gates, envious of Jobs' success.
当时他就说过他有一个梦想，一个关于中国电商市场的未来的梦想。于是从那时开始，他就不断努力，直到取得了今天的成就，依然没有松懈。
He said then that he had a dream, a dream about the future of the Chinese electricity market. Since then, he has continued his efforts until he has achieved what he has achieved today.
就像马云当初说的那样：“梦想还是要有的，万一实现了呢？”
It's like Ma Yun said: "What if the dream comes true?"
可不久之后，马云却很快否认了这句传遍大江南北的名言。
Soon thereafter, Ma Yun quickly denied the famous words that had spread throughout the north and south of the river.
在一年一度的510阿里日集体婚礼上，马云提到了阿里的梦想。
At the annual 510 Ali Day group wedding, Maun referred to Ali's dream.
“有人也问，阿里巴巴有没有梦想？什么是梦想，梦想就是做梦都要想，我们的工作是做梦要想的，但是最重要的是边上那个人就是你做梦都要想的人。”
“Some also asked if Ali Baba had dreams? What dreams are dreams, dreams are dreams, our jobs are dreams, but the most important thing is that the person next to us is the one you dream about.”
这一次，有人录了像还有人录了音，马云也不否认自己说过这句话。
This time, the video was taped, and Maun did not deny that he had said it.
对于即将退休的马云来说，丁磊是不是他做梦想要的人没人知道，但张蕾和张旭豪显然不是。
For the retiring Maun, whether or not Ding Ding was the one he wanted, no one knew, but Zhang Lei and Zhang Xu-ho were clearly not.
对于阿里和张勇来说，网易考拉和饿了么是不是做梦都要想的事，115亿美元的全资收购给出了答案。
For Ali and Zhang Yong, whether Ikola and hungry are dream things or not, the full $11.5 billion buy-in is the answer.
2018年4月2日，饿了么CEO张旭豪表示将融入强大的阿里生态，同时继续保持独立品牌，独立运营。
On 2 April 2018, hungry CEO Zhang Xuhouse indicated that they would integrate into the powerful Ali ecology, while maintaining their own brand and operating independently.
收购交割完成后，张旭豪将出任董事长，并担任阿里CEO新零售战略的特别助理，从阿里健康CEO职务卸任的王磊将出任饿了么CEO。
When the acquisition is completed, Zhang Xu Hao will serve as Chairman of the Board and as Special Assistant to Ali CEO for the new retail strategy, and Wang Jian, who has left his post as Ali Health CEO, will be hungry as CEO.
“给饿了么派CEO，是我和创始团队对阿里提出的最重要的要求。我作为董事长，更多在战略规划和战略决策，60%花在公司运营，其他在战略上。同时兼任逍遥子（阿里CEO张勇的花名）新零售特别助理，拿到更多资源。”
"According to hungry CEOs is one of the most important demands I and the founding team have placed on Ali. As Chairman of the Board, I spent more than 60% on strategic planning and strategic decision-making, operating in companies, and others strategically. I also served as a new retail special assistant to Ari CEO Zhang, and got more resources."
张旭豪专门补充道。一年后（2019年），张旭豪被爆加盟元璟资本。
Zhang Xu Hau added that a year later (2019), Zhang Xu Hao was added to the capital of the union.
简单地算一算，85年张旭豪的梦想比71年丁磊的“电商梦”贵了75亿美金，两个梦想一共是115亿美金！
Just to put it simply, Jang Xu-ho's dream in '85 is $7.5 billion more expensive than the '71 Ding Ding Dream', and two dreams total $11.5 billion!
所以，梦想还是要有的，万一能卖115亿美金呢？
So the dream has to be. What if it's $11.5 billion?
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