中东冲突加剧BTC“高台跳水”，短线跌穿6.6万美元
The conflict in the Middle East exacerbated the BTC's “high-stage dive”, with a short-line drop of $66,000.
原文作者：Mary Liu
Original author: Mary Liu
原文来源：Bitpush
Source: Bitpush
由于地缘政治不确定性加剧，传统市场的避险情绪蔓延至数字资产，加密市场周五暴跌。
Owing to increased geopolitical uncertainty, the risk avoidance of traditional markets spread to digital assets and the encryption market plunged on Friday.
伊朗和以色列之间的紧张局势进一步扩大。据《华尔街日报》周五报道，美国派遣军舰保护以色列和美国军队免受伊朗对以色列的潜在直接攻击，伊朗威胁要对以色列上周在叙利亚发动的袭击进行报复。美国总统乔·拜登对记者表示，他预计伊朗“迟早”会袭击以色列。
According to the Wall Street Journal, on Friday, the United States sent ships to protect Israeli and American forces from potential direct Iranian attacks on Israel, and Iran threatened to retaliate against Israel’s attacks last week in Syria. US President Joe Biden told journalists that he expected Iran to attack Israel “in time.”
华尔街的“恐惧指数”--芝加哥期权交易所(Cboe)波动率指数(VIX)--急剧飙升，达到去年 10 月份以来的最高水平。
Wall Street's Fear Index -- the Chicago Stock Exchange (Cboe) Volatility Index (VIX) -- jumped to its highest level since October last year.
美国股市经历了自一月份以来最糟糕的一天。三大股指当天跌幅均超过 1%，道指收跌1.24%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 1.6%，标普500指数跌1.45%。Coinbase 的 COIN 下跌 6.21% 至 246.68 美元，MicroStrategy 的 MSTR 下跌 4.86% 至 1,476 美元。
The United States stock market has been through its worst day since January. All three shareholdings have fallen by more than 1% on the same day, down by 1.24%, the NASDAQ composite index by 1.6%, and the standard 500 index by 1.45%. Coinbase's COIN has fallen by 6.21% to $246.68, and MicroStrategy's MSTR by 4.86% to $1,476.
比特币在周五早盘期间上探 71,000 美元，午盘后暴跌至 66,000 美元以下，最低回撤至盘中低点 65,230 美元，价格波动幅度超过 8%，截至发稿，比特币已反弹至 67,000 美元上方，24 小时跌幅收窄至5%。
Bitcoin made a search of $71,000 during the morning drive on Friday, dropped sharply to less than $66,000 after noon, retreated to a low of $65,230, with price fluctuations exceeding 8 per cent, and, as of the release, the bitcoin rebounded above $67,000, with a contraction of 24 hours to 5 per cent.
市值第二大加密货币ETH短线下跌 12%至 3100 美元，随后微幅反弹至3200美元上方，跌幅收窄至 8%。
The second largest encrypted currency, ETH, fell short of 12 per cent to $3,100, and then slightly rebounded above $3,200, with a contraction of up to 8 per cent.
山寨币市场跌幅惨淡，Cardano的ADA、Avalanche的AVAX、比特币现金（BCH）、filecoin （FIL）和aptos （APT）均暴跌15-20%。加密货币总市值缩水至 2.42 万亿美元，24小时跌幅超过 7%。
The price of the counterfeit currency fell by 15-20%, with ADA in Cardano, AVAX in Avalanche, Bitcoin cash (BCH), filecoin (FIL) and apts (APT) falling by 15-20%. The total market value of the encrypted currency shrank to $2,42 trillion, with a 24-hour drop of more than 7%.
此次震荡引发了一个月来最大规模的杠杆爆仓。
The shock triggered one of the largest leverage blasts in a month.
根据加密清算跟踪器CoinGlass 的数据，截至美股收盘时段，大约 277,000 名加密货币交易者遭遇清算，总损失接近 10 亿美元，24小时爆仓金额8.78亿美元，其中多头头寸7.85亿美元，空头头寸9341万美元。
According to the encrypted clearing tracker CoinGlass, as of the time of the United States stock collection, approximately 277,000 encrypted currency dealers had been liquidated, with total losses close to $1 billion, with a 24-hour explosion of $878 million, of which $785 million was in multiple positions and $934.1 million in empty positions.
目前加密货币整体市值为2.43万亿美元，24小时跌幅7.3%，比特币市值的主导率为54.3%。
The overall market value of encrypted currencies is currently $2.43 trillion, a decline of 7.3 per cent on a 24-hour basis, and the dominant market value of Bitcoin is 54.3 per cent.
由于交易员纷纷进行对冲，美国国债和美元指数 (DXY) 飙升，长期以来被视为避险资产的黄金在回吐涨幅之前飙升至 2,400 美元以上，创下历史新高，而石油则上涨 1%。
As a result of hedges by traders, the United States bond and dollar index (DXY) surged, and gold, long regarded as a hedge asset, jumped to over $2,400, a historic high, while oil rose by 1 per cent.
盈透证券高级经济学家Jose Torres对彭博社表示，最新事态发展表明，投资者情绪和高风险资产很容易受到地缘政治冲突、持续通胀和油价的影响。
Jose Torres, Senior Economist on Exogenous Securities, stated to Bloomberg that recent developments had shown that investor sentiment and high-risk assets were vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts, persistent inflation and oil prices.
他指出：“投资者已经推迟了对美联储宽松周期开始的预期，而地缘政治可能取代美联储成为市场波动性最大的影响因素之一”。
He pointed out that “investors have delayed expectations of the beginning of a liberal cycle for the Fed,
比特币期权的隐含波动率上升
Increased implied fluctuation of the Bitcoins options
Kaiko Research在一份报告中表示，比特币期权的隐含波动率大幅上升，扭转了前一周的下降趋势。Kaiko 研究分析师 Adam McCarthy 表示，价格上涨通常意味着市场参与者对价格走向信心不足。当隐含波动率上升时，交易者通常愿意支付更多费用来保护现有头寸或推测潜在的价格变动（上涨或下跌）。
Kaiko Research stated in a report that the rate of implied fluctuations in Bitcoins’ options had risen significantly, reversing the decline of the previous week. Kaiko research analyst Adam McCarthy said that price increases usually mean that market participants have less confidence in price trends. When the rate of implied fluctuations rises, traders are usually willing to pay more to protect existing positions or to speculate about potential price changes (up or down).
Kaiko 表示，未来两周到期合约的隐含波动率增幅最大，在短短 2 天内从 59% 上升至 71%，这表明对近期波动性的预期正在上升。
Kaiko indicated that the most significant increase in implied fluctuations in contracts due in the next two weeks, from 59 per cent to 71 per cent in a short period of two days, indicates that expectations of volatility are rising in the near future.
McCarthy表示：“在这种情况下，由于交易者不确定，但他们愿意为期权支付更多费用，以免受价格波动的影响，因此可能会更加悲观。他们可能会支付高额保费来购买下行保护。”
McCarthy states: “In such a case, because of uncertainty on the part of the traders, they are willing to pay additional fees over a period of time in order to protect themselves from price fluctuations, and may be even more pessimistic. They may pay a high premium to buy downside protection.”
数字资产投资公司 Ryze Labs（前身为Sino Global Capital）在周五的评论中表示，由于美国即将到来的纳税季节，预计加密资产将出现“短期市场疲软”。
In a Friday review, the digital asset investment company Ryze Labs (formerly Sino Global Capital) stated that “short-term market weakness” in encrypted assets was expected as a result of the upcoming tax season in the United States.
另一份Kaiko 报告显示，之前的减半显示短期影响好坏参半，而长期影响则看涨。报告解释说，在之前的三次减半中，有两次价格在一个月和三个月后飙升。在所有三次减半中，价格在 9 个月和 12 个月后飙升。
Another Kaiko report showed that the previous half represented a mixed short-term impact, while the long-term impact increased. The report explained that in two of the previous three halves, prices surged after one month and three months. In all three, prices surged after 9 and 12 months.
然而，Kaiko 强调，三个样本量不一定足以得出结论，Kaiko 认为重要的是要注意行业中的其他事件。
Kaiko stressed, however, that the three sample volumes were not necessarily sufficient to conclude that Kaiko considered it important to pay attention to other events in the industry.
Glassnode：以史为鉴，BTC仍有可能出现更大幅度的回调
Glassnode 在其分析报告中称，与历史周期相比，当前市场仍处于相对早期的价格发现阶段 (market in price discovery) 。历史数据显示，在以往的狂热阶段中，比特币价格曾多次出现超过 10%的回撤，其中大多数回撤幅度更大，25%以上的回调十分常见。而在本轮周期中，自比特币突破历史新高以来，当前市场仅经历了两次约 10% 以上的调整。返回搜狐，查看更多
In its analysis, Glasnode states that the current market is still at a relatively early stage of price discovery compared to the historical cycle. Historical data show that during the previous period of fanaticism, bitcoin prices have been withdrawn more than 10%, most of which are larger, and 25% more frequently. In the current cycle, the market has undergone only two adjustments of about 10% or more since Bitcoin's breakthrough.
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