北京时间3月11日，比特币再迎“暴涨”。盘中，比特币价格突破71000美元，再创历史新高。截至北京时间12日5时53分，比特币最新报价72367美元，日内涨幅超4.5%。
On March 11, Beijing time, Bitcoin rose again. The price of Bitcoin went up by $71,000, reaching an all-time high. By 5.53 p.m., Beijing time 12, Bitcoin’s latest offer was $72367, with an increase of over 4.5 per cent.
一周内三破纪录，并跻身全球市值第八大资产，比特币的价值也随着这一波涨势越来越被认可。在分析人士看来，比特币的价格短期内可能会经历剧烈波动，与此同时，理解比特币在数字资产中的地位，以及数字资产与数字经济关系的深层次逻辑，对于投资决策和市场分析都具有重要意义。
The value of Bitcoin is increasingly recognized as the wave rises, with three record-breakers in a week and the eighth largest global market asset. According to analysts, the price of Bitcoin may experience sharp fluctuations in the short term, while understanding the position of bitcoin in digital assets and the underlying logic of the relationship between digital assets and the digital economy is important for investment decision-making and market analysis.
机构巨额资金涌入
There's a huge influx of money from the agency.
近一个月以来，比特币走出一波上涨行情，数次创下历史新高。往前看，比特币曾在2021年11月创下每枚68999.99美元的纪录。而自2月28日起，就在半月的时间里，比特币先后突破6万、6.7万美元关口，在3月5日晚间突破6.9万美元，首次创历史新高。3月8日晚间，比特币盘中突破7万美元。
In recent months, Bitcoin has moved out of a wave of upswings and made a number of historic peaks. In November 2021, Bitcoin made a record of $689.99.99 per piece.
一周内三度刷新纪录，比特币的“疯狂”由哪些因素助推？市场普遍认为，“减半”是推动比特币价格上涨的重要因素。
Three times a week, the record was updated, and what contributed to Bitcoin’s “crazy” push? The market is generally of the view that “half” is an important factor driving the price increase in Bitcoin.
“减半”是指产出新区块后所获得的奖励减半，大约每四年发生一次，将减少比特币的供应量。而新一轮的“减半”将在4月发生，预计在2024年4月23日，区块奖励将从6.25枚（BTC）降至3.125枚（BTC）。
“50-50” refers to the reduction in the supply of bitcoin by halving the incentives obtained after the production of new blocks, approximately every four years. The new round of “50-50” will take place in April, and the block incentives are expected to fall from 6.25 (BTC) to 3.125 (BTC) on 23 April 2024.
另一关键则是比特币ETF的发行。2024年1月11日，美国证监会正式批准了比特币ETF上市交易，首日成交量便达到46亿美元，也由此，包括比特币在内的加密货币交易价格暴涨的大幕拉开。
Another key is the issue of the Bitcoin ETF. On January 11, 2024, the CSRC officially approved Bitcoin ETF listings, bringing the first-day transaction to $4.6 billion, which led to a dramatic increase in the price of encrypted currency transactions, including Bitcoin.
“美国证监会对比特币现货ETF的批准无疑是一大里程碑，它为传统金融体系内的投资者打开了通向数字资产的大门，带来了巨大的资金流入和市场信心的提振。”中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席、香港区块链协会荣誉主席于佳宁对北京商报记者表示。
“The approval by the US CSRC of the spot ETF in Bitcoin was undoubtedly a major milestone, opening the door to digital assets for investors in the traditional financial system, bringing huge capital inflows and boosting market confidence.” The Co-Chair of the District Chain Committee of the China Communications Industry Association and the Honorary President of the Hong Kong Block Chain Association stated to the Beijing Business Journal journalist in Jianing.
BitMEX Research数据显示，截至3月8日，贝莱德IBIT持有197943枚比特币，价值超过135亿美元。于佳宁指出，机构投资者通常采取长期投资策略，他们的参与减少了市场的波动性，提高了市场的稳定性。机构需求的增加同时也表明，越来越多的专业投资者开始认识到比特币在资产配置中的价值，尤其是在当前经济环境下，投资者寻求对冲通胀和货币贬值风险的资产。
BitMEX Research data show that, as of 8 March, Belet IBIT held 197943 bitcoins worth more than $13.5 billion. According to Janin, institutional investors usually pursue long-term investment strategies, and their participation reduces market volatility and enhances market stability.
目前，源源不断的资金涌入贝莱德和富达投资等重量级投资公司发行的比特币现货ETF。综合来看，在不到两个月的时间里，近80亿美元的净流入与比特币“减半”同时引爆了市场的看涨情绪。
At present, a steady flow of funds is flowing into the spot ETF of Bitcoin, issued by heavy-weight investment companies like Belede and Fuda. Taken together, in less than two months, the net inflow of nearly $8 billion, together with the “50-per-cent” of Bitcoin, has triggered market booms.
于佳宁同时提出，比特币的牛市往往在突破历史高点后进入更强劲的上涨阶段。例如在上一轮牛市中，比特币在突破2017年的高点19891美元后，确实迎来了更大的上涨空间，价格最终达到了69000美元的高点。这种走势体现了比特币价格动态的关键特点：一旦突破重要的心理和技术阻力位，市场情绪往往会转向极度乐观，引发新一轮的购买热潮。市场参与者倾向于在比特币突破关键阻力位后增加持仓，预期将出现新的历史高点。这一预期进一步被放大，因为新的市场参与者加入，他们不愿错失上涨行情，从而推高了价格。
In the last round of the bull market, for example, after breaking its high point of 2017, 19891, Bitcoin did rise to a much higher level, at a price of $69,000. This move reflects a key feature of Bitcoin’s price dynamics: once it breaks important psychological and technological barriers, market sentiment tends to turn to extreme optimism, triggering a new cycle of purchasing booms. Market participants tend to build up their holdings after Bitco’s breaking key resistance, with a new historical high expected.
数字资产的再思考
Rethinking Digital Assets
值得注意的是，就在3月11日，比特币市值已升至1.398万亿美元，超越白银的1.379万亿美元市值，跻身全球市值第八大资产。此外，以太坊也突破4000美元大关，为2021年12月以来首次，年内累涨逾70%。
It is worth noting that just on 11 March, the market value of Bitcoin rose to $1.398 trillion, surpassing the silver value of $1.379 trillion and becoming the eighth largest asset in the global market. In addition, the Etherhus also crossed the $4,000 mark, the first since December 2021, with a cumulative increase of more than 70 per cent during the year.
这一消息更加激发了市场对于加密货币的认可与乐观态度。“比特币升至全球第八大资产的地位标志着其在投资和价值储存领域的成熟。”于佳宁说道。这一成就反映出市场对比特币及其技术的增强信心，标志着数字资产领域从早期的投机性阶段走向稳定发展，吸引了广泛投资者和机构的关注。作为重要的资产类别，比特币的崛起迫使金融界和投资者重新评估其在现代经济和金融体系中的作用，引发了对传统金融资产的再思考。
“The rise of Bitcoin to the eighth-largest asset in the world marks its maturity in the areas of investment and value storage.” In Janing, this achievement reflects the increased confidence of the market in bitcoin and its technology, and marks a move from an early phase of speculative development to a steady development in the field of digital assets that attracts the attention of a wide range of investors and institutions.
正如数字资产银行Anchorage Digital首席执行官兼联合创始人Nathan McCauley表示，“比特币的历史高点标志着加密货币的一个转折点。传统机构曾经‘袖手旁观’，今天，他们正作为牛市的主要驱动力在这里全力以赴”。
As Nathan McCauley, Chief Executive Officer and co-founder of Digital Assets Bank Ancorage Digital, said, “The historic height of Bitcoin marks a turning point in the encrypt currency. Traditional institutions used to “stand by and watch,” and today they are doing their best as the main driving force of the cattle market.”
比特币的飙升势头尚没有放缓的迹象，刺激市场的“好消息”又来。伦敦证券交易所3月11日宣布，将于2024年第二季度开始接受比特币和以太坊ETN的准入申请，确切日期“将在适当时候”公布。
There is no sign of a slowdown in the surge in Bitcoin, and the “good news” that stimulates the market has come back. The London Stock Exchange announced on 11 March that it would begin accepting Bitcoin and Ethio Ethio Ethno’s access requests in the second quarter of 2024, with the exact date “to be announced in due course.”
多重信号之下，比特币是否还有进一步上行空间？未来如何走？于佳宁指出，以比特币为首的数字资产可以被认为是一种“未来资产”，其价值能够有效穿越经济周期。而数字资产可以理解为数字经济发展的一面镜子，就如同股市反映实体产业的关系一样，数字资产价值重估反映数字经济的发展和繁荣。但作为一种高波动性的资产，比特币的价格短期内可能会经历剧烈波动，这在很大程度上取决于市场情绪、宏观经济环境、监管政策等因素。
And digital assets can be understood as mirrors of digital economic development, reflecting the development and prosperity of the digital economy, just as the stock market reflects the relationship of the real industry. But, as a highly volatile asset, Bitcoins’ prices may experience sharp fluctuations in the short term, depending largely on factors such as market sentiment, the macroeconomic environment, and regulatory policies.
于佳宁同时提醒，比特币价格的波动是其本质属性的一部分，任何投资决策都应基于充分的市场研究和个人的风险承受能力。理解比特币在数字资产中的地位，以及数字资产与数字经济关系的深层次逻辑，对于投资决策和市场分析都具有重要意义。
At the same time, Gianning reminds that bitcoin price volatility is part of its intrinsic attributes, and that any investment decision should be based on adequate market research and individual risk tolerance. Understanding the position of bitcoin in digital assets and the underlying logic of the relationship between digital assets and the digital economy is important for investment decision-making and market analysis.
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