编辑导语：随着互联网时代的不断发展，以及科技的进步，很多虚拟游戏和设备进入到人们的生活娱乐中去，“元宇宙”的概念也逐渐铺开，各行业开始发展关于“元宇宙”概念的产品；本文作者分享了关于元宇宙的发展和分析，我们一起来了解一下。
Edition guide: As the Internet age evolves, and as technology advances, many virtual games and devices enter into the entertainment of people's lives, the concept of the meta-cosm is gradually opening up, and industries are beginning to develop products on the concept of the meta-cosm. The authors share information on the development and analysis of the meta-cosm, and we share it together.
“Metaverse（元宇宙）”这个词像是一阵飓风，在2021年席卷了互联网与投资圈，各大互联网科技公司与资本纷纷为其加码。
The term “Metaverse” was like a hurricane that swept the Internet and the investment circle in 2021, with major Internet technology companies and capital adding to it.
先是今年三月，海外大热游戏《Roblox》的母公司Roblox在美国上市，成为元宇宙概念第一股。四月，游戏《堡垒之夜》母公司Epic Games 凭借元宇宙概念加持，获得新一轮10亿美元的融资。
First, in March of this year, Roblox, the parent company of the overseas hot game Roblox, was listed in the United States as the first dollar-cosm concept. In April, Epic Gomes, the parent company of the game Fortress Night, gained a new round of $1 billion in financing based on the meta-cosm concept.
纵观国内，腾讯、网易、字节跳动等大厂早已经表现出对于“元宇宙”世界的野心；而MetaApp更是凭借号称要打造全年龄段的元宇宙世界，拿到了1亿美元的C轮融资。国内社交平台Soul也是紧随其后，把宣传语改成了“年轻人的社交元宇宙”。
Throughout the country, major companies such as tweaking, mesh, and byte beats have long shown ambition for the world of the meta-cosmos; and MetaApp has received $100 million in C-round financing by calling it the age-wide meta-cosm. Soul, a social platform in the country, has also followed it by changing the word to "the social universe of young people."
就连看似与“元宇宙”概念并无过多交涉的阿迪达斯，也以一部非线性的第一人称互动大片，推出了自家体现元宇宙概念的Ozworld系列。似乎，在大多数人还搞不懂“元宇宙”概念的时候，已经步入了“万物皆可元宇宙”时代。
Even Adidas, which does not seem to have much to do with the concept of the meta-cosmos, has launched the Ozworld series, which embodies the concept of the meta-cosm. It seems that, at a time when most people do not understand the concept of the meta-cosmos, the era of the “All is within the universe.”
那么各大厂商竞相入局、已经成为新风口的“元宇宙”究竟是什么？其概念中引领的这波潮流真的是下一个风口，还只是一个噱头？被一个雏形期概念带动的二级市场，上扬股价的红火中跟风的股民，真的不是又一波“韭菜”吗？
So what is the “megascopic universe” in which major manufacturers compete for entry and have become new? Is it really the next wave, or is it just a conundrum? Is it really another wave of “celebrities” from the second-tier market, driven by an embryonic concept?
“Metaverse（元宇宙）”，即是Meta （超越）+ Verse （宇宙），一种超越现实的虚拟宇宙。这个世界是庞大、自由并且是持续性不间断的，能为用户构建新的社交体系与多元化社区的建立，并且能通过真实感的还原技术与实时或低延迟的通信环境为用户带来沉浸式的体验。
“Metaverse”, or Meta (exceeding) + Verse (cosmos), is a virtual universe that transcends reality. The world is vast, free and continuous, building new social systems and diverse communities for users, and providing them with a immersion experience through real-time or low-delayed communication technologies.
换句话来说，就是现实世界的“人造映射版”，我们在虚拟世界中与一个全新的身份一一对应，并且不会间断的“生活下去”。大家所熟知的“完整体”元宇宙形态，例如电影《头号玩家》里的“绿洲”、动漫《刀剑神域》中沉浸虚拟世界或小说《无限恐怖》中主角历练的那些科技创作类似电影的平行宇宙。
In other words, the real world's “man-made map”, in which we correspond to a new identity and live without interruption. The “integrity” meta-cosm patterns that are well known, such as the oasis of the film First Player, the parallel universe of technology that immersed in the virtual world or the leading characters of the novel Infinite Terror to create similar films.
其实早在1981年，在计算机教授弗诺文奇的科幻小说《真名实姓》中就存在着一个这样的虚拟世界：人们可以通过脑筋接口登陆新世界，按照自己的喜好幻化成不同的形象。同时，在这个虚拟世界中人们还有真实的感观体验。
In fact, as early as 1981, there was a virtual world in the science fiction novel "Fenovitch's Real Name" by computer professor: people can land in the new world through a brain interface and become different images according to their own preferences. At the same time, there is a real sense of life in this virtual world.
直到1991年，尼尔斯蒂芬森的科幻小说《雪崩》把《真名实姓》的概念更加具象化，并且给这个世界赋予了一个专属名称“Metaverse”，曾经被译为“超元域”，现在被称为“元宇宙”。
Until 1991, Neil Stephenson's science fiction, Avalanche, made the concept of Real Name even more vivid and gave the world the exclusive name “Metaverse”, which was once translated as “super-mode” and is now called the “Megaspace”.
在“超元域”到“元宇宙”的这些年中，现实世界也逐渐实现了曾经科幻小说中所描绘的先进技术。比如，可以进行实时视频沟通的电子设备、与人交流的语音助手、通过电池进行驱动的汽车、还有当下VR/AR技术进一步的发展与脑筋接口的大量探索和实践。
In the years between the “supermode” and the “mass universe,” the real world has also gradually realized the advanced technology that used to be described in science fiction. For example, electronic devices that allow real-time video communication, voice assistants who communicate with people, cars that are driven by batteries, and a great deal of exploration and practice that interfaces with current developments in VR/AR technology.
然而，随着这些在科幻小说中基于元宇宙世界为背景的科学技术逐渐场景落地，“元宇宙”对于当前世界的人们，却依旧只是个雏形概念。目前，最大的助力就是通过“概念”为科技公司加持，吸引资本的眼眸，获取更高的社会期待值与声誉。
However, as these science and technology in science fiction, based on the background of the meta-cosmos world, come to an end, the meta-cosm continues to be an embryonic concept for the world today. At present, the greatest contribution is to capture technology companies through “concepts,” attracting the eyes of capital, and to gain higher social expectations and reputations.
然而，在不少科技公司用短期难以落地的技术概念吸引注意，被资本热炒，把二级市场股民当“韭菜”收割的现状下，“Metaverse”概念飓风式的席卷真的不是培养新的一波韭菜吗？
However, in a situation where many technology companies use short-term hard-to-reach technological concepts to draw attention to the fact that they have been fired by capital and treat secondary-market shareholders as “breedings”, is it true that the hurricane-style banner of the “Metaverse” concept is not a new wave of cabbage?
众所周知，“元宇宙”这个概念在曾经VR圈最火爆的时期就经常被人提及，设想为再造一个以VR为接口的虚拟世界，以给用户使用VR时沉浸感的体验，而随着VR由热变冷，这个设想逐渐淡化出人们的视野之外。
It is well known that the concept of the “megaspace” was often referred to during the hottest period in the VR circle, with the idea of re-establishing a virtual world with VRs as interfaces to give users the experience of immersion when using VRs, which gradually faded away from people's horizons as VRs became colder from heat.
而这场来自未来的VR概念，造就了一个国内VR圈的传奇公司——暴风科技。
And this VR concept, which comes from the future, has created a national VR circle of legends, storm technology.
暴风科技曾经赶上了2016年VR发展的浪潮，凭借着未来VR的概念，暴风科技在上市之初股价一路从7.24元/股飙升至327.01元/股，涨幅高达45倍，市值一度突破400亿元。而随着其概念无法落地，随着创始人冯鑫被捕、主业停顿、年报迟迟未出等利空消息；暴风科技股价急剧缩水，直至退市。只能说，曾经的饼画的有多大，落幕的就有多辛酸。
In 2016, storm technology caught up with VR developments, and, with the concept of the future VR, storm technology skyrocketed from $7.24/equity to $327.01/equity at the beginning of the market, up 45-fold, with a market value of $40 billion at a time. And, as it became unattainable, as the founder was arrested, the main business stopped, the annual report was delayed, and the share price of storm technology shrunk sharply until the market retreated.
对比于当前的“元宇宙”，Epic Games 仅仅凭着“纸上谈兵”收获10亿美元的投资，元宇宙第一股Roblox首日股价上升54.4%，公司市值超过400亿，身价比上市前一年翻了10倍。但是其都没有可以称得上“完整体”元宇宙的作品，哪怕当下最具元宇宙特色的《Roblox》不过也是元宇宙概念的一个雏形。
Compared to the current meta-cosmos, Epic Games, with its only investment of $1 billion, Roblox’s first share of the universe rose by 54.4% on the first day, and the company’s market value was more than $40 billion, a 10-fold increase over the year before it was marketed. But none of its works could be described as the “integral” meta-cosmos, even the Roblox, the most characteristic of the meta-cosm, is just a prototype of the meta-cosm concept.
国内号称要打造全年龄段元宇宙世界的MeteApp公司，由天眼查APP得知，凭借着“元宇宙”概念在Roblox上市后，拿到了SIG海纳亚洲资本领投的1亿美元的C轮融资；就是一家如此有野心并且被资本看好的公司，其官网上竟然没有其概念产品的下载地址，甚至连产品实机画面都看不到。
A domestic company called MeteApp, which calls for the creation of an age-wide meta-cosmos world, was informed by APP SkyEaven that, with the concept of a meta-cosmos on the market in Roblox, it received $100 million in C-round financing from SIG Heiner Asian capital; a company so ambitious and well-visible that its official web site did not have a download address for its conceptual products, even without a real picture of the product.
而国内社交软件Soul在今年也打出了“年轻人的社交元宇宙”的概念，恐怕也是想借元宇宙的东风使得自身的上市之路与上市之后二级市场的发展都更加顺畅，只是没想到距离纳斯达克敲钟临门一脚，因“故”放弃上市。
And the concept of a “social universe of young people” was also developed this year by the domestic social software Soul, probably to use the wind of the Won cosmos to make its own market path smoother than that of the secondary market after listing, but not to think that it would be possible for NASDAQ to come to the door and give up the market “for that reason”.
似乎当下的境况让人回到了2016年VR圈的浪潮里面，空有其表并且处于雏形形态的未来性概念，怕是在此股浪潮中不乏被资本肆意炒作，让元宇宙的热度达到最高点，使得成为了资本韭菜的股民们被一波收割。
It seems that the current situation has led to a return to the 2016 wave of VR circles, with the concept of a future with its appearance and in its embryonic form, fearing that in this wave the capital is being manipulated to the point where the heat of the meta-cosmos is at its highest, allowing the shareholders, who have become capital pickers, to be reaped by a wave of harvests.
然而，元宇宙概念雏形下对于“韭菜”的收割，大厂们的算盘或许不在二级市场的股民里，而是通过一个终端设备与交互产品再把存量市场重新分配一遍，毕竟当前科技的发展都在“向虚而生”。
However, at the very beginning of the meta-cosmology concept, for the harvesting of “celebrities”, large factories may not be part of the stockholders of the secondary market, but rather redistribute the stock market through a terminal device and interactive products, after all the current technological developments are “false”.
不过，对于任何新技术的出现，大多都是符合高德纳咨询公司1995年提出的技术成熟曲线。首先，在科技诞生的初期，由于媒体的大肆报道、非理性渲染与宣传，使得产品知名度无处不在，从而使得公司在市场中过高的峰值，最后进入泡沫化的低谷期，这时候失败案例大于成功案例，正如国内VR公司暴风科技的遭遇。
Most of the emergence of new technologies, however, is consistent with the technological maturity curve proposed by Goldner Consulting in 1995. First, in the early days of science and technology, the ubiquitous visibility of products was made possible by media coverage, irrational recitation, and publicity, which led to the company’s disproportionate peak in the market and, ultimately, into a bubble-up low, at a time when failures were greater than success stories, as was the case with VR’s storm technology in the country.
随后，会进入低调的稳步上升期，使得与此相关的新科技一一诞生。最后实现产品的场景落地，被市场所接受，经历数代的演化进入成熟阶段。正如大家如今已经普遍接受的互联网、移动网络产品。
This will be followed by a steady, low-key rise, which will give birth to the new technologies associated with it. The final scene of the product is accepted by the market, and generations of evolution have come to maturity. Just as Internet and mobile network products are now widely accepted.
而像是腾讯、Facebook、英伟达等各个大厂的巨额投入，面对于自身本来强大的品牌影响力与极高的市场估值，很难被资本炒作与收割，其野心所在定是技术落地后所产生的新格局的划分。
The huge investments of major factories, such as Stewardship, Facebook and British Weida, are hard to make and harvest by capital in the face of their already powerful brand influence and highly valued markets, and their ambitions are defined as the new paradigm that emerges from technology.
尤其是“元宇宙”世界所具有的社交属性，一旦落地很容易瓦解腾讯与Facebook这两家庞大的社交帝国。
In particular, the social attributes of the “won cosmos” world can easily break down the two giant social empires of Constituency and Facebook once they land.
其次，“元宇宙”作为真实世界的映射与商业产品，其规则与构架一定来源于真实世界。当一家企业足够大，你在这个宇宙中所做的所有事情都会被监视和掌管，并且留存建档，被用作为个人隐私数据资源。
Second, as a map and a commercial product of the real world, the rules and architecture of the metacosystem must be derived from the real world. When an enterprise is large enough, everything you do in the universe will be monitored and controlled and will be saved and used as a resource for personal privacy data.
同时，作为一个虚拟世界，身份与地位的产生与现实世界的金钱挂钩。似乎一切都等同于一款模糊掉现实与虚拟界限的庞大游戏：你想拥有更好的外表、穿戴与住行吗？请刷卡付费。出行没有钱怎么办？请观看广告或者开通会员送资源。那为什么非会员比会员还便宜呢？那就是“韭菜们”的另一个问题了。
At the same time, as a virtual world, the creation of identity and status is linked to the money of the real world. Everything seems like a big game that blurs reality and virtual boundaries: do you want to have better appearances, wear and live?
就像是美剧《上载新生》中演绎的那样，在哪个虚拟世界中，凡事都需要消费。对于贫民区的上载体，每个月只有2G数据流量，用完之后即被冻结，除非有人给他们的账号充值。
In which virtual world, everything needs to be consumed, as in the American play The Upload of the Newborn. For slum uploads, only 2G data flows per month are frozen when they run out, unless their account numbers are charged.
那么，沉浸于虚拟世界的人群往往为了逃避现实世界，当虚拟世界变成了另一个与现实世界总体规则无二的世界，形成一种悖论，那我们建立元宇宙究竟是为了什么呢？
So, what exactly are we building the meta-cosmos when the virtual world becomes another world with the rules of the real world?
是为了社会存量资源的重新划分？还是使得科技继续成为扩大贫富差距的催化剂？还是仅仅按照历史的进程，完成人类由碳基生命到硅基生命的演变？
Is it for the redistribution of the resources of the social stock, or is it that science and technology continue to act as a catalyst for widening the gap between rich and poor? Or is it merely historical to complete the evolution of human life from carbon-based to silicon-based?
而谁又能证明当下的我们生活的就是真实的世界呢，我们通过视觉、嗅觉、听觉与触觉的感知、又如何证明不是大脑穿戴的VR类设备，而我们究竟是不是一排排大型实验室中的“缸中之脑”来造就我们世界的“缸中之脑”呢？
And who can prove that the world in which we live today is the real one? By seeing, smelling, hearing and tactile senses, and how can we prove that VR-type devices are not worn by the brain, do we create the “brain in the tank” of our world in a row of large laboratories?
就像是国内网络文学“无限流”的鼻祖《无限恐怖》中写道：“书中的人物对于我们来说是虚拟的，但是相对于书中的世界来说，却是真实的。那么是否可以认为我们也只是一本书，一场电影或是一个程序中的角色呢？”
It's like the infinity of horrors in the country's Internet literature: "The characters in the book are virtual to us, but they are real to the world in which they are written. So can we just think of ourselves as a book, a movie, or a role in a process?"
或许，有一天，当我们伴随着闹钟醒来的时候，耳朵边听到的是：“欢迎来到我的世界。”
Perhaps, one day, when we wake up with the alarm clock, the ear hears: “Welcome to my world”.
本文由 @摩根频道 原创发布于人人都是产品经理，未经许可，禁止转载。
This paper was originally published on @morgan Channel by everyone as a product manager, without permission, and is prohibited from reproducing it.
题图来自Unsplash，基于CC0协议。
The map is from Unsplash and is based on the CC0 agreement.
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