来源:券商中国
Source: Bonders, China
原标题:刚刚,15万人爆仓!
Original title: Just now, 150,000 people exploded!
币圈又崩了!
The coins are falling again!
昨晚,美国披露的一则经济数据,让黄金、白银以及虚拟货币市场,遭遇了一场大跳水行情。其中,虚拟货币市场颇为惨烈,24小时内,约15万人爆仓,爆仓金额达4.18亿美元,折合人民币约30亿元。
Last night, the U.S. disclosed an economic figure that made gold, silver, and virtual money markets go through a big jump. The virtual money market was a tough one, with about 150,000 people in 24 hours in a barn with $418 million, equivalent to about 3 billion yuan.
大跳水
Big dive.
这场暴跌,源于一则强劲的非农数据的披露,导致市场对美联储降息的预期大幅下降,从而引发美元指数大幅飙涨,黄金、白银、虚拟货币纷纷上演惊魂大跳水。
The collapse, which resulted from a strong disclosure of non-farm data, led to a sharp decline in market expectations for the Federal Reserve, triggering a sharp rise in the dollar index, with gold, silver and virtual currencies on the rise.
美国当地时间6月7日,在非农数据披露后,美元指数直线拉升,到当天收盘时涨幅达到0.79%报104.9395。纽约期金和现货黄金在盘中均跌超3%,创下两年多的最大跌幅。截至周五收盘时,COMEX黄金期货8月合约下跌65.9美元,跌幅达到2.76%,报2325美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货主力合约下跌1.927美元,跌幅高达6.14%,报29.440美元/盎司。伦敦基本金属也全线收跌,LME期铜跌3.95%报9748.5美元/吨,LME期锌跌4.74%报2772美元/吨。
On 7 June, local United States time, after non-agricultural data disclosure, the United States dollar index rose in a straight line, reaching 0.79 per cent by the day when it was collected, with an increase of 10.4.9395. New York futures and spot gold fell by more than 3 per cent, the largest fall of more than two years. As of Friday, COMEX gold futures fell by $65.9, with a decline of 2.76 per cent and $2325/ounce. COMEX silver masters contract fell by $1,927, with a decline of up to $6.14 per cent and $29.440/ounce. London's basic metals also fell on the whole line, LME copper by $3.95 per cent, and LME zinc by $4.74 per cent, with a decline of $2772/ton.
虚拟货币市场更惨烈,比特币从7.19万美元/枚,最低下探至6.86万美元/枚,跌幅超过4.5%;以太坊从3840美元/枚,最低跌至3608美元/枚,跌幅超过6%。截至记者发稿时,比特币报6.94万美元/枚,以太坊报3690美元/枚。据Coinglass数据,过去24小时内,虚拟货币市场约15万人爆仓,爆仓金额为4.18亿美元,其中大多数是多单爆仓。
The virtual currency market of was even worse, with Bitcoin falling by more than 6 per cent from $7.19 million /font >, down to $6.86 million /font >, down by more than 4.5 per cent; the virtual currency market fell from $3840 /font >, down to $3608 /font, down to over 6 per cent. By the time journalists wrote, Bitcoin had reported $6.94 million /font >, down to $3690 /font >. According to Coinglass, in the last 24 hours, the virtual currency market had exploded about $150,000 /font /font >, most of which were multiple blasts .
北京时间昨晚8点30左右,美国劳工部公布的数据显示,非农业部门新增就业人数为27.2万,远超市场普遍预期的18.5万,而前值为增加17.5万人。此外,5月份美国平均时薪同比增速为4.1%,高于预期和前值的3.9%,环比增速从上月的0.2%反弹至0.4%,而预期为0.3%。
In Beijing, at around 8.30 p.m. last night, data released by the United States Department of Labor show that the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector is 272,000, well above the 185,000 expected in the market, compared with the 175,000 increase in the previous value. Moreover, the average hourly wage in the United States in May increased by 4.1 per cent on a year-on-year basis, more than 3.9 per cent of the expected and pre-value, and the ring increase rebounded from 0.2 per cent to 0.4 per cent in the previous month, compared with 0.3 per cent expected.
非农就业人数与薪资增速均暗示美国消费者支出可能仍然颇具韧性,美国通胀似乎难以回到美联储锚定的2%目标。上述强劲的就业数据发布后,市场对美联储降息的预期迅速下降。
Both the number of non-farm jobs and the rate of salary increases suggest that consumer spending in the United States may remain resilient, and inflation in the United States seems unlikely to return to the Fed’s anchored target of 2%. Market expectations for the Fed’s interest cuts fell rapidly after the above-mentioned robust employment data were released.
市场预期美联储6月维持联邦基金利率不变的可能性为97.6%;到8月维持利率不变的可能性为91.1%,而非农数据公布前为78.5%;累计降息25个基点的概率为8.8%——在非农数据公布前为22.0%;累计降息50个基点的概率为0.1%——在非农数据公布前为0.5%。这意味着,美联储在9月前降息基本无望。另外,交易员预计11月降息概率降至约80%,且预计的今年内合计降息幅度由报告前的47个基点降至约37个基点。
The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates constant for the Federal Fund in June at 97.6 per cent; maintain interest rates constant at 91.1 per cent by August, as opposed to 78.5 per cent before the publication of agricultural data; accumulate interest rate reductions at 8.8 per cent — 22.0 per cent before the publication of non-agricultural data; and accumulate interest reductions at 0.1 per cent — 0.5 per cent before the publication of non-agricultural data. This means that the Fed is largely hopeless to reduce interest rates by September. Moreover, traders expect a reduction of interest rates to be about 80 per cent in November, and the projected aggregate interest reductions this year fall from 47 basis points before the publication of the report to about 37 basis points.
何时降息?
When's the rate going down?
在非农报告公布后,曾经预计美联储7月会议“首降”的两家银行——花旗集团和摩根大通改变了观点。花旗现在认为,美联储的政策制定者可能要等到9月份才会采取行动。摩根大通则预计,联邦基金利率区间在11月之前不会发生变化。
Following the release of the non-farm report, two banks, Citigroup and Morgan Chase, which were expected to “first down” at the Fed’s July meeting, changed their views. Citigroup now believes that the Fed’s policymakers may have to wait until September.
Spartan资本证券首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo表示,5月非农就业人数大增27.2万,是个相当火热的数据,它表明劳动力市场没有任何崩溃的迹象。这对经济和企业盈利都有好处,但对于最早可能在9月份降息的前景而言,这是一个负面因素。这份报告可能会消除9月份降息的希望,并将降息时间推迟到12月份。Peter Cardillo称,“我们将静待下周三的CPI数据。”
According to Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist for Spartan capital securities, the significant increase in non-farm employment in May was a rather hot figure, indicating that there was no sign of a collapse in the labour market. This was good for the economy and for business profits, but it was a negative factor for the prospects for the earliest possible reduction in interest rates in September. The report could eliminate the hope of a reduction in interest rates in September and postpone the reduction until December. Peter Cardillo said, “We will wait for the CPI data next Wednesday.”
道富银行分析师Marvin Loh表示:“任何对7月降息的担忧现在都很快被打消了。就业市场仍在全速运转,这让美联储有时间评估我们在其他数据中看到的疲软是否会导致夏季就业增长放缓。”
“Any concern about the July cut is now quickly dissipated. The job market is still running at full speed, which gives the Fed time to assess whether the weakness we see in the rest of the data will lead to a slowdown in employment growth in the summer.”
东吴证券称,超预期的就业再次压低了美联储降息的概率。鉴于当前薪资增速的回升,通胀回落的速度将更加缓慢。对于美联储来说,相较于就业,美联储可能更加关注的是通胀。如果5月通胀数据再次保持超高韧性,年内降息一次甚至不降息的概率则提高。除此之外,鉴于数据的强劲及黏性,美联储需要>3个月的窗口期来观测,这意味着政策的定力将强于前期。
For the Fed, inflation may be more concerned about inflation than employment. If inflation data for May again remain super-resilient, the probability of a single, or even no, interest reduction in the course of the year will increase.
华金证券认为,美国5月非农就业超市场预期大幅走强,这意味着当月暂时走高的失业率数据很有可能未来数月再度转为较为明显的下降,从而在欧央行已经启动降息周期的背景下,美联储跟随性提早降息的必要性仍然很低。
According to Joaquin Securities, the expected surge in non-farm employment supermarkets in the United States in May meant that it was likely that unemployment data, which was temporarily high in that month, would again decline more noticeably in the coming months, and that the need for early interest reduction by the Fed would remain low in the context of the interest-reduction cycles already initiated by the ECB.
非农就业数据对美元指数和美债收益率形成重要支撑。从行业结构来看,5月新增非农就业走强将令市场对美国政府保持财政扩张态势,以及美国居民商品和服务消费再度上行并叠加保护主义政策环境带动本土生产维持强劲趋势产生更大的信心,当然通胀高位黏性是不可忽视的“副产品”。
Non-farm employment data provide important support for the dollar index and US-debt yields. In terms of industry structure, a strong increase in non-farm employment in May will allow markets to maintain fiscal expansion towards the US government, as well as a renewed upturn in US consumer consumption of goods and services and a combination of a protectionist policy environment that has led to a strong trend in domestic production, although inflation's high stickyness is a “by-product” that cannot be ignored.
华金证券认为,美联储年内降息两次大概率是相当合理的预期,5月劳动力市场再度趋紧很大程度上有助于打消市场此前一度呈现的对于提前降息必要性犹豫不决的态度。相较之于美国经济和通胀双向窄幅波动但黏性趋势相当确定的现状,欧元区、日本、英国等其他发达经济体因内需不足而面临的越来越大的“加速通缩”风险事实上尚未被市场充分定价,美国强劲的5月就业数据有望加速欧央行基于其自身通胀可能回落明显快于美国的现状,放弃可能和美联储“接近同步降息”的幻想,转而采取加速降息的清晰路径。维持美联储9月首次降息、全年降息两次的预测不变;同时重申应重视欧央行首次降息后于下半年可能加速降息的概率,美元指数预计将维持高位更长时间。
In contrast to the US economy and inflation, which fluctuated narrowly, but with a fairly certain trend, other advanced economies, such as the eurozone, Japan, the United Kingdom, and others, face an increasing risk of “accelebrating deflation” due to insufficient domestic demand, which is, in fact, not fully priced by the market, the US robust May employment data are expected to accelerate the ECB, based on its own inflation likely to fall significantly faster than the US state of affairs, moving away from the predispositions that the Fed might “close to a synchronized drop” and adopting a clear path of accelerated interest reduction. Maintaining the Fed’s first cut in September and the year-round forecast remains unchanged; and reiterating the importance it attaches to the probability that the ECB’s first drop in interest rates may accelerate in the next half of the year, the dollar index is expected to remain high for longer.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信:MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论