比特币“站”上30000美元关口,仍难掩风险

资讯 2024-06-30 阅读:55 评论:0
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北京商报讯(记者 廖蒙)比特币在这个端午假期又“站”起来了。6月25日,北京商报记者梳理发现,时隔2个月,加密货币市值排名第一的比特币价格近日再次突破30000美元大关,最高突破31000美元,创2023年4月中旬以来新高。

Beijing Business News (journalist & nbsp; Liaomon) Bitcoin & & ldquo; station & & rdquo; up at this end of the week. On June 25th, Beijing Business Journal reporters combed up and discovered that, two months later, the price of the first price of the encrypted currency, the Bitcoin, had recently crossed the $30,000 mark, reaching a maximum of $31,000, reaching a new high since mid-April 2023.

根据全球币价网站CoinGecko数据,最近7个交易日里,比特币交易价格从26500美元下方逐渐攀升,突破30000美元关口后横盘震荡,在6月24日一度达到31185.22美元。截至6月25日18时10分,比特币报30694.83美元,日内涨幅为0.02%。

According to the global currency website CoinGecko, in the last seven trading days, the price of the Bitcoin transaction rose gradually from US$ 26,500 to US$ 30,000, with a tremor of US$ 3118.522 on 24 June. At 1810 hours on 25 June, the Bitcoin reported $30694.83, an increase of 0.02 per cent.

进入2023年以来,比特币回升走势明显。2023年1-4月,比特币连月上行,在2023年5月则下跌接近10%。北京商报记者进一步查询发现,在年内比特币币价上涨过程中,单日涨幅超过10%的情况并不常见。而在比特币的本轮上涨中,6月21日,比特币单日涨幅超过10%。

After entering 2023, Bitcoin rebounded significantly. In January-April 2023, Bitcoin went out on a monthly basis, falling by almost 10% in May 2023. Further inquiries by Beijing merchant journalists found that a single-day increase of more than 10% was unusual in the course of the year’s Bitcoin price rise.

图片来源:CoinGecko

究其原因,依然离不开消息面因素的推动。就在6月21日,美联储主席鲍威尔出席众议院金融服务委员会接受质询,当议员Maxine Waters问及稳定币发行商是否应该获得美联储许可和监管时,鲍威尔回应称:“监管机构将支付稳定币(Stablecoins)视为一种货币形式,并认为中央银行应该对其进行监管。货币可信度的最终来源是中央银行,美联储在决定任何形式货币(包括稳定币)的未来时应该发挥强有力的联邦作用。”

Just on June 21, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was questioned before the House Financial Services Committee, and when Congressman Maxine  Waters asked whether stable money issuers should be licensed and regulated by the Fed, Powell responded: “ regulators view payment of stable currency as a monetary form and believe that central banks should regulate it. The ultimate source of monetary credibility is the Central Bank, which should play a strong federal role in determining the future of any form of currency, including a stable currency.

此外,鲍威尔还提到,“像比特币这样的加密货币作为一种资产类别,似乎具有持久力。稳定币问题成为美联储的弱点将是一个错误”。而鲍威尔这一观点也被市场解读为加密货币的利好因素。受此消息影响,比特币交易价格大幅回升。

In addition, Powell mentioned that “ an encrypted currency such as Bitcoin seems to be sustainable as an asset class. The weakness of stabilizing the currency as a Fed would be a mistake & rdquao; and Powell’s view is also interpreted by the market as a good factor in encrypting money.

也有分析人士直言,这一情况也再度反映出了包括比特币在内的加密货币,由消息面因素驱导的不确定性。浙江大学国际联合商学院数字经济与金融创新研究中心联席主任、研究员盘和林表示,美联储一直在探寻对加密货币的监管路径,包括试图通过央行发行数字货币来取代比特币。但从现实状况来看,美联储的稳定币可能很难对比特币形成压力。而此举被解读为美联储将放松对比特币等数字货币的监管,这也让投机者看好比特币的短期行情,加密货币交易仍然是具备高风险的。

According to the co-director, researcher, and Lin of the Center for Research in Digital Economy and Financial Innovation of the United Business School of Zhejiang University, the Fed has been searching for ways to regulate encrypted currencies, including attempting to replace Bitcoins by issuing digital currencies through central banks. But, in real terms, the Fed’s stable currency may be difficult to exert pressure on bitcoins.

尽管相较于2022年下半年,加密货币交易市场风波渐小,交易价格也有所回升,但海外金融监管部门对于加密货币的管控并未有放松。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)接连对币安和Coinbase这两家大型加密货币交易所提起诉讼,按照SEC透露的信息,加密货币交易所应将其交易的代币注册为证券,交易所也应该完成交易所、经销商和清算机构等角色的注册信息。

Although the market for encrypted currency transactions became less volatile in the second half of 2022, and the price of the transactions recovered, the regulation of encrypted currency by overseas financial regulators has not been relaxed. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has instituted successive lawsuits against two large encrypted currency exchanges, Currency Encode and Coinbase, which, according to the information disclosed by the SEC, register the currency of their transactions as securities, and the exchange should complete the registration of its role as an exchange, dealer, and clearing agency.

强势监管背景下,加密货币本轮上升也或与近期传统金融机构频繁布局加密货币有所关联。6月21日,加密货币基金管理公司Valkyrie向SEC递交基于实物比特币交易的交易所交易基金(ETF)的申请,这也是年内继贝莱德、WisdomTree和Invesco等公司后,又一家申请比特币ETF的金融巨头。日本最大银行三菱日联金融集团也开始布局,计划发行全球稳定币。

In the context of strong regulation, the rise in the encrypt currency cycle is also linked to, or has been associated with, the recent proliferation of encrypted currencies by traditional financial institutions. On June 21, Valkyrie, the management firm of the encrypt monetary fund, submitted to SEC an application for an exchange transaction fund (ETF) based on in-kind bitco transactions, a financial giant who applied for it in the course of the year, following companies like Belaid, WisdomTree, and Invesco.

“从趋势来看,海外对于加密货币的监管态度毫无疑问是在收紧的。其中需要注意的是,比特币这样的加密货币本身就是为了去中心化和回避监管,同时比特币市值较大,投机者很难放弃比特币这个最终工具,所以短期内监管方可能很难扭转投机热情。金融监管部门和传统金融机构的参与,有望逐步改善这一局面。”盘和林表示。

& ldquo; There is no doubt that overseas regulation of encrypted currency is tightened. It is important to note that encrypted currency such as Bitcoin itself is designed to de-centralize and avoid regulation, while bitcoin has a greater market value and speculators can hardly give up the ultimate tool of Bitcoin, so it may be difficult for regulators to reverse speculation in the short term. The involvement of financial regulators and traditional financial institutions is expected to gradually improve the situation.

北京市社会科学院副研究员王鹏则进一步指出,随着时间的推移,监管机构对于加密货币的观念和监管动作在不断变化,避免加密货币市场的风险向传统金融领域传导,造成金融风险。在这一过程中,加密货币会不断经历波动,在消息面因素主导下或是暴涨或是暴跌。因此,对于普通用户而言,应看清加密货币短期涨幅表象,远离这类非法的金融活动。

Wang Peng, a deputy researcher at the Beijing City Academy of Social Sciences, further noted that, over time, regulatory authorities’ perceptions and regulatory actions with regard to cryptographic currency are changing to avoid the risk of the cryptographic currency market being passed on to the traditional financial sector, creating financial risks. In this process, encrypted currency is subject to constant volatility, dominated by sources of information, whether surges or collapses.

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