21世纪经济报道记者 胡天姣、家俊辉 北京、广州报道 对于熟悉加密货币的投资者而言，早已习惯了比特币大起大落的行情。
The 21st Century Economic Reporter Hu Tianjin, Jia Junhui Beijing, Guangzhou report /strang has been used to the dramatic rise of bitcoin for investors who are familiar with encrypted money.
2022年开年至今，比特币跌跌撞撞来到了36000美元下方。北京时间1月23日，比特币价格一度跌穿35000美元/枚，创造了自 2021 年 9 月以来的新低。
By the beginning of 2022, bitcoin fell below $36,000. On January 23, Beijing time, bitcoin fell over $35,000, creating a new low since September 2021.
Coindesk数据显示，截至北京时间1月23日20点14分，比特币价格35636.13美元/枚，过去一周跌幅接近20%，今年以来跌幅更是接近30%。
Coidesk data show that by 20.14 p.m. Beijing time on 23 January, the price of Bitcoin was $35636.13 per item, a decline of nearly 20 per cent over the past week and close to 30 per cent since this year.
截至北京时间1月23日20点12分，比特币一小时爆仓175.74万美元，4小时爆仓747.82万美元，12小时爆仓2007.72万美元。
At 20:12 p.m. on 23 January Beijing Time, Bitcoin exploded $1.7574 million in one hour, $747.82 million in four hours and 2007.72 million in 12 hours.
事实上，自去年11月10日创下历史最高价68928.9美元/枚后，比特币就进入了震荡下行的通道，目前跌幅超过40%，创造了自2018年以来持续时间最长的一次下跌。
In fact, since the historic peak of $68,928.9 per item on 10 November last year, Bitcoin has entered a tremor-down route, now falling by more than 40 per cent, creating the longest decline since 2018.
多位市场人士分析称，美联储收紧货币政策、科技股普遍被抛售，以及多国对比特币从挖矿、交易至网络营销“产业链”的监管是比特币此轮下跌的主要原因。
A number of marketers analysed the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed, the widespread sale of science and technology shares, and the regulation of the “industry chain” from mining, trading and Internet marketing in several countries as the main reasons for the fall in Bitcoin.
全球监管浪潮再起
Global regulatory wave re-emerges
新的一年，加密货币似乎将面临更高强度的全球监管压力。
In the new year, the encrypted currency appears to be under even more intense global regulatory pressure.
当地时间1月17日，出现网红在社交网络推广加密货币风波后，西班牙国家证券市场委员会表示，将对公众人物推广加密货币施加限制，为欧盟内部首次采取措施的国家。
On 17 January, local time, the Spanish National Securities Markets Commission (CNM) indicated that it would impose restrictions on the promotion of cryptographic currency by public figures, following the emergence of a web-based social network to promote the circulation of encrypted currency, for the first time in the European Union.
具体来看，CNMV要求有影响力的个人及赞助企业在宣传推广活动时至少提前 10 天报备，并对加密货币的风险予以警告，否将面临罚款。“如果网红的推广行为没有被覆盖进监管领域，就会产生一个漏洞。对于我们和他们来说，这是一个全新的领域，必然会产生摩擦，但当为一些以前未受到监管的领域引入规则时，摩擦总会发生。”该监管机构负责人Rodrigo Buenaventura接受媒体采访时表示。
In particular, CNMV requires influential individuals and sponsoring enterprises to report at least 10 days in advance of the publicity campaign and to warn against the risk of encryption currency, and to be fined. “If the red promotion is not covered in the regulatory area, there will be a gap. For us and for them, this is an entirely new area, and there will inevitably be friction, but it will always occur when rules are introduced in some previously unregulated areas.” The head of the regulatory body, Rodrigo Buenaventura, said in an interview with the media.
几乎在同一时间，新加坡金管局（MAS）对加密货币的推广活动也加以限制。“近期一些DPT（数字支付代币）服务提供商通过网络或在公共区域积极宣传其服务，这或会引发消费者在没有充分了解相关风险的情况下，冲动地进行DPT交易。新准则明确了新加坡金融管理局的期望，即DPT服务提供商不应参与DPT服务的营销或广告。”MAS表示，DPT服务提供商只能在自己的企业网站、移动应用程序或官方社交媒体账户上进行营销或广告宣传。
At almost the same time, the Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) imposed restrictions on the promotion of encrypted money. “Recently, a number of DPT (digital payment tokens) service providers have actively promoted their services via networks or in public areas, which may trigger consumer impulses to deal with DPT without fully understanding the risks involved. The new guidelines have clarified the expectation of the Singapore Financial Authority that DPT service providers should not be involved in marketing or advertising DPT services.” The MAS states that DPT service providers can only market or advertise on their own business websites, mobile applications or official social media accounts.
时隔两天，当地时间1月19日，英国金融市场行为监管局（FCA）提议，为应对相关金融风险，对向公众出售高风险投资有关的规则进行改革。“太多的人被引导投资于他们不了解、对他们来说风险太大的产品。”FCA市场执行长Sarah Pritchard表示，改革草案包括金融监管机构如何管理加密货币广告的细节。而此前，英国财政部表示，将有关数字代币促销监管纳入FCA的职责范围。
Two days later, on 19 January, local time, the British Financial Markets Conduct Control Authority (FCA) proposed reforms to the rules governing the sale of high-risk investments to the public in response to related financial risks. “ Too many people are led to invest in products that they do not know and that are too risky for them.”
相比之下，俄罗斯对加密货币的态度更为严苛。当地时间1月20日，俄罗斯央行表示，将提议禁止加密货币交易和挖矿，意在取缔本国国内所有与加密货币相关的业务。
By contrast, Russia’s approach to encrypted currency is even more stringent. On January 20, local time, the Russian Central Bank indicated that it would propose a ban on encrypted currency transactions and mining, with the intention of banning all domestic operations related to encrypted currency.
俄罗斯央行指出，与传统支付系统相比，加密货币的支付交易比例可以忽略不计。但是由于交易的匿名性，货币替代品被广泛地用于非法活动。“目前，传统金融中介机构对加密货币市场的参与是有限的，但与加密货币相关的衍生品和交易所交易基金（ETF）份额的交易量正在增长，去中心化的金融（DeFi）生态系统正在发展。”
But, because of the anonymity of transactions, currency substitutes are widely used for illegal activities. “For the time being, the participation of traditional financial intermediaries in the cryptographic currency market is limited, but the volume of transactions of derivatives and exchange transaction funds (ETFs) associated with encrypted currencies is growing, and decentralized financial (DeFi) ecosystems are developing.”
“长远看，使用加密货币进行结算的潜力似乎有限。”俄罗斯央行指出，比特币等加密货币市场价值的快速增长主要是由投机性需求和对其价格进一步上涨的预期所刺激的，这导致了市场上泡沫的形成。
“In the long run, the potential for settlement using encrypted currencies seems limited.” According to the Central Bank of Russia, the rapid growth in the market value of encrypted currencies, such as Bitcoin, was stimulated mainly by speculative demand and expectations of further price increases, which led to the creation of market bubbles.
俄罗斯央行进一步指出，与美元化一样，加密货币限制了货币政策的主权，这可能会迫使央行永久维持较高的关键利率，以遏制通胀。这将降低家庭和企业的信贷负担能力。“对于包括俄罗斯在内的新兴市场经济体来说，加密货币引发的金融稳定的潜在风险要高得多，特别是由于传统上更倾向于美元化和金融知识水平不足。”
The Russian Central Bank further notes that, like dollarization, encrypted currencies limit the sovereign right of monetary policy, which may force central banks to permanently maintain high key interest rates to contain inflation. This would reduce the credit affordability of households and businesses.
为了减轻与加密货币扩张相关的威胁，俄罗斯央行将提议，禁止在俄罗斯联邦境内进行加密货币的发行与流通(包括加密货币交易所、P2P平台)；禁止金融机构投资加密货币和相关金融工具，以及利用俄罗斯金融中介机构和俄罗斯金融基础设施进行加密货币交易；与禁止某些类型的加密货币的挖矿行为等。
In order to mitigate the threats associated with the expansion of cryptographic currency, the Central Bank of Russia will propose a ban on the issuance and circulation of encrypted currency in the Russian Federation (including the Encrypted Currency Exchange, the P2P platform); a ban on investment by financial institutions in encrypted currency and related financial instruments, as well as the use of Russian financial intermediaries and Russian financial infrastructure for encrypted currency transactions; and a ban on the mining of certain types of encrypted currency.
不过，俄罗斯央行金融稳定部门负责人Elizaveta Danilova称，俄罗斯人仍将被允许在海外持有加密货币，拥有离岸外汇账户的人将能够交易加密货币。同时，她也警告称，监管机构将跟踪本国投资者的持有情况。“禁止使用俄罗斯金融基础设施来获取加密货币非常重要，我们认为这将有助于消除很大一部分风险，并确保加密货币的热度降温。”
However, Elizaveta Danilova, head of the financial stabilization department of the Central Bank of Russia, said that Russians would still be allowed to hold encrypted currency abroad, and that those with offshore foreign exchange accounts would be able to trade encrypted currency. At the same time, she warned that regulators would track the holdings of domestic investors.
值得一提的是，以美国为代表的发达经济体对加密货币一直比较宽容。但美国证券交易委员会（SEC）已明确，加密货币交易所将成为其2022年对数字资产监管的主要重点。
It is worth mentioning that the advanced economies, represented by the United States, have been more tolerant of encrypted currencies. But the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made it clear that an encrypted currency exchange will be the main focus of its regulation of digital assets in 2022.
当地时间1月20日，SEC主席Gary Gensler表示，希望未来几个月交易平台将采取措施，接受金融监管机构更直接的监管。“额外的审查对于加密货币投资者获得他们在交易股票或其他资产时获得的保护类型至关重要。”
On January 20, local time, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler expressed the hope that the trading platform would take steps in the coming months to be more directly regulated by financial regulators. “Additional scrutiny is essential for encrypted money investors to obtain the type of protection they receive when trading shares or other assets.”
看空看多各执一词
sees the word
数字资产研究公司Quantum Economics分析师Jason Deane表示，关于俄罗斯采矿禁令的传言、缩减计划的影响以及某些司法管辖区持续的监管担忧，目前在交易和投资决策中的权重超过了对加密货币的长期基本面的考量。“同时，在高通货膨胀的经济体中，比特币的使用和采用的增加造成了混乱的市场局面。”
Digital Asset Research Quantum Economics analyst Jason Deane stated that, with respect to rumours about the Russian mining ban, the impact of the downsizing plan, and continuing regulatory concerns in some jurisdictions, the weight of current trade and investment decisions outweighs the long-term fundamentals of encrypted currency. “In high-inflation economies, the use and use of bitcoin has created a chaotic market situation.”
Jason Dean预计，比特币等加密货币短期内将出现“波动且无方向的交易”，未来可能还会进一步走软。
Jason Dean anticipates that “transactions that are volatile and undirected” in encrypted currencies such as Bitcoin will occur in the short term and may be further softened in the future.
瑞银分析师James Malcolm则直接表示，加密货币将迎来寒冬。根据瑞银数据显示目前比特币短期持有者已近乎为零。
According to Swiss silver data, short-term Bitcoin holders are now close to zero.
在James Malcolm看来，投资者已经逐渐意识到，鉴于比特币波动性以及有限供应性，这一加密货币实际上不是更好的货币。而且未来将面临更加严苛的全球监管，“价格飞涨的稳定币以及去中心化金融项目肯定会在未来几个月面临政府的打击。”
In James Malcolm’s view, investors have come to realize that this encrypted currency is actually not a better currency, given the volatility and limited supply of bitcoins. And there will be more stringent global regulation in the future, “a stable currency with soaring prices and decentralized financial projects will certainly be hit by the government in the coming months.”
不过，仍有部分互联网大佬坚持看好比特币。日前，加密货币交易平台 FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried接受媒体采访时表示，他认为比特币的价格有可能超过10万美元，“当然，比特币的表现也可能远不如我们预期的好”。同时，他强调，从消费者的角度来看，效率更高的比特币现货 ETF的到来只是时间问题。
However, there are still parts of the Internet that insist on watching Bitcoin. Today, in an interview with the media, the encrypted money-trading platform FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried stated that he believed that Bitcoin might cost more than $100,000, “and, of course, Bitcoin may have performed far better than we expected.” At the same time, he stressed that, from a consumer’s perspective, it was only a matter of time before the more efficient Bitcoin spot ETF arrived.
相比于Sam Bankman留有余地的预测，全球持有比特币最多的上市公司MicroStrategy的创始人兼CEO Michael Saylor则非常决绝。近日，他重申，即便面对一个长期的熊市，他也不会卖出其所持有的任何比特币。在他看来，比特币是对抗通胀的最佳手段。他预计，比特币价格将首先达到60万美元，然后最终达到600万美元。
Compared to Sam Bankman’s leeway prediction, the founder and CEO Michael Saylor of the world’s largest listed company, MicroStrategy, is very determined. In recent days, he has reiterated that even in the face of a long-standing bear market, he will not sell any bitcoins in his possession. In his view, Bitcoin is the best anti-inflationary tool. He predicts that Bitcoin prices will first reach $600,000 and eventually $6 million.
（编辑：曾芳）
(ed. Tseng Fung)
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