今年5月12日,比特币第三次产量减半发生了,矿工挖到每个区块奖励由原来的12.5btc减至6.25btc,减产了50%,也正因为如此,比特币减半一度成为币圈热搜词,有些投资者对于比特币减半的含义并不了解,比特币减半其实就是比特币的大宗补贴减少一半的时刻,了解完比特币减半含义,回归到正题,比特币减半意味着什么?接下来小编针对比特币减半来给大家全面解读一番。
On 12 May of this year, the third production of Bitcoin was halved, and miners cut each block from 12.5btc to 6.25btc, reducing production by 50 per cent. As a result, the halving of Bitcoin was once a hot-and-seek word. Some investors do not know what it means to halve bitcoin. The halving of bitcoin is actually the time to halve bitcoin's subsidies, understand the meaning of bitcoin by half, get it back to square one, and what about bitcoin by half?
比特币减半意味着什么?
What does halving bitcoin mean?
1、“减半”后长期必涨
1. Long-term boom after “50-50”
比特币减半是不是意味着长期上涨,有不少人祭出比特币的历史走势,一通分析,认为减半后是要开启长期上涨模式的。历史上两次“减半”后,比特币均出现不同程度上涨,这并不意味着牛市是由“减半”带来的,就像公鸡叫太阳升,咱们也不能把鸡叫作为太阳升起的驱动因素吧?币圈子小编认为,比特币和加密市场作为一个新概念(相对于股票和黄金),在走向市场的过程中会吸引越来越多的人关注和持有,这是加密市场的人口红利,也是比特币上涨的根本原因。
Does the halving of bitcoin mean a long-term upturn, with a lot of people praising the historical trend of bitcoin, an analysis that suggests that it should start a long-term upturning pattern after halving it. Two times in history, bitcoin rises to different degrees, which does not mean that the cow market is brought by “half” – like the rooster called the sun rising – and that we cannot call chicken the driver of the sun’s rise? Currency circles argue that bitcoin and encryption markets are a new concept (as opposed to stocks and ), which attracts more and more attention and possession of the market, which is the demographic dividend of the cryptomarket and the underlying reason for the increase in bitcoin.
还有人摆出了量化资产稀缺性的S2F模型,分析比特币价格的趋势,分析认为,黄金之所以珍贵,取决于其稀有性,在 S2F 模型框架下,黄金的 S2F 约为62.比特币 S2F 为 26.今年5月份比特币出块产量减半后,其 S2F 将会接近黄金。这个理论有一定科学性,但是如果有投资者要付出金钱去验证的话,那就只能送上一句祝福了,毕竟,资本市场是杀人不见血的黑暗森林。
There are also S2F models for quantifying asset scarcity, analysing trends in bitcoin prices, which suggest that gold is precious depending on its rareness, and that under the S2F framework, gold S2F is about 62.bitcoin S2F is close to gold when its S2F is reduced by half of its production in May of this year. The theory is scientific, but if investors pay money to prove it, they can only give a blessing. After all, capital markets are a dark forest that kills no blood.
当然,也有对“减半”后短期看空的,持有这种观点的大多是交易者,“预期落地”后看空。
There is, of course, a short-term gap between “50 per cent” and “expected landing” when most of these views are held by traders.
2、矿工成本真实地增加了
2. Real increases in miner costs
根据网站显示,在0.32元的电价下,以S9为代表的功耗比在70W/T以下的机器,收益均无法覆盖电价成本。两个月前,S9的关机币价还是5万元,现在,关机币价直接变成10万元。如果以丰水电价0.22元来算,则S9还有少量盈利空间。电价因素直接决定了减半后矿工是否能继续在市场生存。
According to the website, at a cost of 0.32 dollars, the S9 value of power does not cover the cost of electricity as compared to machines below 70 W/T. Two months ago, the S9 price was 50,000 dollars, and now the price is 100,000 dollars. If it is 0.22 dollars, S9 has a small profit margin. The price factor directly determines whether the miners will continue to survive in the market after halving.
目前可以预期的是,5月下旬到10月是丰水期,还有便宜的电,还有时间可以缓冲,至少这还算是一个“温柔”的减半。
It can now be expected that the period between late May and October will be full of water and cheap electricity, and that there will be time to buffer, at least in the form of a “soft” reduction of half.
3、刨去“减半”、“信仰”,大部分人想要的无非是收益
3. Cut the word “half”, “belief”, which most people want for nothing but gain.
比特币减半影响最大的是矿工群体,挖矿成本真实地在增加,竞争越来越激烈,未来随着减半次数的增加,矿池间的竞争也会越来越激烈。刨去“信仰”不谈,大家想要的无非是收益,但如果市场容量有限,能赚钱人的注定是少数,风险依然是客观存在的。
The biggest impact of the halving of Bitcoin is on the miners’ population, where the cost of mining is actually increasing, competition is increasing, and future competition among the ponds will increase as the number of cuts increases. The “belief” aside, everyone wants what they want, but if the market capacity is limited, there are few who are destined to make money, and the risks remain objective.
昨天众多的“减半”直播里,有一段宝二爷怼市场上的“信仰者”的对话,他认为比特币不可能to da moon了,他们那批人主要是靠着比特币上涨赚钱的,但是现在做多做空都能赚钱,比特币就只能暴涨暴跌收割合约市场的资金。
Yesterday's “50-per-cent” live, there was a conversation among the “beliefs” in the Second Master's market, who argued that Bitcoin could not have gone to da moon, that their group was making money mainly on the increase of Bitcoin, but now doing more to make money, and that Bitcoin was only able to skyrocket the market for harvest contracts.
比特币减半的原因:
bitcoin50%:
比特币作为虚拟货币的领导者,每十分钟左右会被挖出一个区块,挖到一个区块会奖励一定的比特币。
Bitcoin, as the leader of the virtual currency, will be dug out of a block every 10 minutes or so, and will be rewarded with a bitcoin.
中本聪在比特币协议中规定:
In the Bitcoin agreement, China has provided that:
比特币总量限定在2100万枚;
The total number of bitcoins is limited to 21 million;
奖励挖矿的比特币数量每产生21万个区块减半一次。
The number of bitcoins awarded for mining is halved for every 210,000 blocks generated.
假设每小时平均有6个区块被挖出,按照中本聪的说法每当挖出21万个区块就奖励减半,因此大约每四年会发生一次减半。一直到总数达到2100万个。四年减半的规则是出于供求关系的考虑,如果在短时间内毫无顾忌,没有限制地生产大量的比特币,那比特币流通量会越来越多,最后会变得毫无价值。从法币的发行也可以看出这一点,不能不加限制的发行人民币,那样贬值速度也会飞速加快。
Assuming that an average of six blocks per hour are excavated and that, according to medium-breathing, two hundred and twenty thousand blocks are cut by half every four years. Until the total number is 21 million. The four-year rule of halving is based on supply-demand considerations. If a large number of bitcoins are produced in an unbridled manner and without restraint in a short period of time, the amount of bitcoins will become more and more in circulation and will ultimately become worthless. This is also evident from the distribution of French coins, and the speed at which the devaluation will accelerate if it is issued People's Currency.
根据这个算法,比特币的总量大概有2100万枚(准确说是20999999.9769),大概在2140年发行完。以太坊创始人V神曾经在一篇文章中写道了通过减半方式减慢比特币发行的原因:主要原因是为了有效的控制通货膨胀。传统法定货币最大的问题在于受控于中央银行。央行可以任意发行货币,如果发行太多,按照供需关系,货币会迅速贬值。
According to this algorithm, the total amount of Bitcoins is approximately 21 million (approx. 2099999.9769), which was released in 2140. In an article by the founder of the Tails, V. wrote the reasons for slowing the distribution of Bitcoins by reducing by half: the main reason is to control inflation effectively. The biggest problem with the traditional legal currency is that it is controlled by the central bank. The central bank is free to issue the currency, and if it is issued too many, it will depreciate rapidly according to supply and demand.
其实比特币和黄金有一定相似度,黄金在整个地球上的数量十分有限,挖出一块黄金,剩下的黄金就会越来越少,越来越难挖。因此黄克可以作为金属货币,可以保值,到现在已经有6000多年的储值历史了。比特币能否像黄金一下,让我们拭目以待!
In fact, bitcoin and gold are somewhat similar, and gold is very limited on the entire planet, and one piece of gold is excavated, and the rest of gold is less and less and more difficult to dig. So yellow can be used as a metal currency, and it can be preserved, and it's now 6,000 years old. Could bitcoin be like gold, let's see if we can see it!
比特币减半意味着什么?通过以上介绍,相信大家对于比特币减半有所了解,众所周知,比特币减半每四年都会发生一次,自2009年开始至今一共发生过三次比特币减半,可以说每10分钟产生的比特币数量每四年减少一半,从比特币的历史价格走势可以看出,比特币减半是一种独特的事件类型,而且比特币在每次比特币减半后,都创下新的历史新高。
What does halving bitcoin mean? With the above introduction, we believe that there is some understanding of the halving of bitcoin. As we all know, the halving of bitcoin occurs once every four years, three times since 2009, it can be said that the amount of bitcoin produced every 10 minutes is reduced by half every four years, as can be seen from historical price trends in bitcoin, that the halving of bitcoin is a unique type of event, and that bitcoin, after the halving of bitcoin, is a new historical high.
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