在马斯克坚定站台后，比特币站稳4万美元没多久，就突破57000美元，不过随后几周就暴跌会4.6万美元附近。尽管如此，还是很多人质疑比特币要么是一场彻头彻尾的骗局。
After Musk’s firm stand, Bitcoin stood at $40,000, and broke 57,000 short, but in the next few weeks it would crash around 46,000 dollars. Despite this, many question whether Bitcoin was either a complete fraud.
但我认为，比特币不是骗局，目前已经具备价值基础，而且它充满了期待。
But I think that bitcoin is not a scam, that it already has a value base and that it is full of expectations.
要理解这么反直觉的事情，还得先了解比特币是什么。
To understand such a counter-intuitive thing, you have to understand what bitcoin is.
比特币是什么？
What's a bitcoin?
首先，比特币不是货币——这点在中本聪早已经明确说明，他留下的比特币白皮书标题就是“Bitcoin：APeerToPeerElectronicCashSystem”（《比特币：一种点对点的电子支付系统》）。货币和支付系统是两回事情。
First of all, Bitcoin is not a currency — a point-to-point electronic payment system, as was made clear earlier in China — and the title of the Bitcoin White Paper that he left behind is “Bitcoin: ApeerToPeerEuropeanCashSystem.” Monetary and payment systems are two things.
比如，“你有100块钱”。这笔钱是货币，意味着你可以拿着它跟商家换来商品。这100块可以是——1张红色的毛爷爷，也可以是微信钱包里的1个虚拟数字。
For example, "You have 100 dollars." This money is money, which means you can trade goods with it. This can be -- a red grandpa, or a virtual figure in a microfiche.
不管实物还是虚拟数字，你消费时它都会产生转移，钞票交到商家手上，或者由微信把这数字从你这里减去，然后加到商家的账户上。
Whether it's physical or virtual, when you consume it, it's a transfer, the money goes to the dealer, or we're able to subtract it from you and then add it to the dealer's account.
所以，不管纸币和微信钱包都是支付系统。
So, neither banknotes nor micromail wallets are payment systems.
过去，这个系统以前是用纸币来计算的，你手上的货币，等于你有多少张毛爷爷（更早些是工农兵）；现在是微信或支付宝钱包里的数字。所以支付系统的本质就是数字的加减。
In the past, this system used to be calculated in notes, the currency you have, which is equal to how many gross grandfathers you have (and earlier in the field of engineering); now it's in micro-letters or in the payment of purses. So the essence of the payment system is the increase and decrease of numbers.
买东西时，从你的账本上减掉一个数字，商家的账本上加一个数字。你有工资收入时，账本加一个数字，公司的账本减一个数字。
When you buy something, you lose a number from your books, and the merchant books add a number. When you get paid, the books add a number, and the company’s books reduce a number.
同样，比特币支付系统也是一个账本。
Similarly, the Bitcoin payment system is an account book.
这个账本必须得到公众的承认。比如，你说自己很有钱，是富二代，账户上有几百个亿。如果你银行账户上结余有11位数字，那大家就会抛来仰慕的目光。因为这个数字本质就是，你这笔钱被银行所承认。
This account book must be recognized by the public. For example, you say you're rich, rich, with hundreds of billions of dollars in the account. If you have 11 figures on your bank account, you'll be looking up. Because that figure is, by its very nature, you're recognized by the bank.
钱是需要得到支付系统承认的（纸币也是支付系统中一个数字符号），你有多少钱都是取决于银行支付系统上的数字。
Money needs to be recognized in the payment system (the banknote is also a digital symbol in the payment system), and how much money you have depends on the number in the bank payment system.
由于银行是个非常具体的机构，因此叫做“中心化支付系统”。而比特币没有实体机构，而是通过“区块链”来记账，因此叫“去中心化支付系统”。
Since banks are a very specific institution, they are called “centralized payment systems”, whereas Bitcoin does not have a physical institution but is accounted for through “block chains”, and thus “decentralized payment systems”.
“挖矿”挖的是什么？
What's "mining"?
任何支付系统都需要成本支撑的，银行的计算也要交电费，比特币没有机构来负责运行，那么谁来承担比特币的结算和交易的成本呢？
Any payment system would need to be supported by cost, banks would have to pay for electricity, and there was no agency in Bitcoin to run it, so who would bear the cost of accounting for and trading in bitcoin?
中本聪设计了一套很聪明的系统。因为跟煤矿模式很相似，所以大家把它叫做“挖矿”，负责挖矿的就叫做“矿工”。
Nakamoto designed a smart system. Because it's similar to the coal mine model, it's called "mining," and the miner is called "miner."
“矿工”就是负责跑比特币清算程序的计算机。网络上有无数的矿工，它们分散在全球各地，并构成了比特币的区块链网络。
The "miners" are the computers running the Bitcoin liquidation process. There are countless miners on the network, scattered around the globe and forming a network of bitcoin blocks.
如果你用比特币进行了一笔交易，程序就会告诉全世界，发生了这样一笔交易。
If you make a transaction in bitcoin, the program tells the world that such a deal has occurred.
不过，这个交易需要得到一条确认信息后才算有效的。正如转账、汇款后，银行需要给你一个回执一样。但刚才说了，比特币是去中心化系统，没有机构可以发送这样的信息。
However, the transaction needs to be validated by a confirmation message. Just like a transfer, a transfer, a return, a bank needs to give you. But, as we just said, bitcoin is a decentralised system, and no agency can send such a message.
因此比特币采用了这样一个机制。矿工收到这条交易后，很多矿工会一起做非常复杂加密解密计算，最终由一个幸运的矿工计算出来一条确认信息，并打包发送到整个整个区块链网络。
So Bitcoin uses this mechanism. When the miners received this deal, many unions worked together on a very complex encryption decryption, and eventually a lucky miner calculated a confirmation message and packed it to the entire block chain network.
同时，这名幸运的矿工也会得到一定的比特币作为奖励，正如你通过银行转账，银行会收取一定手续费一样。
At the same time, the lucky miner will receive a certain amount of bitcoin as an incentive, just as you transfer through the bank and the bank will charge a certain fee.
不过，比特币这样设计的目的，并非让大家参与无止境的算力比赛，而是为了防止交易结果被伪造或者篡改。
However, Bitcoin was designed not to involve everyone in endless arithmetic competitions, but to prevent the outcome of transactions from being forged or tampered with.
而且，矿工进场时会通过模拟挖矿，被分到算力相近的组别，强者计算困难的交易信息，弱者计算容易的信息，保证相对的公平。
Moreover, when the miners enter the site, they are divided into groups with comparable arithmetic power, the strong calculate difficult transaction information, the weak calculate easy information and guarantee relative fairness.
全世界的比特币都是通过记账而来的，按照比特币系统的设计。比特别诞生的前四年，整个区块链网络每10分钟打包一组交易信息，首先打包出来的矿工可以获得50个比特币奖励。4年后，奖励减为25个，再过4年，减到12.5个……即每四年递减一半，按此计算比特币总量总计有2100万个左右。
Bitcoins from all over the world are recorded, according to the bitcoins system. Compared to the four years before the special birth, the entire block chain network packs a set of transactions every 10 minutes, with 50 bitcoins awarded to first-packed miners. Four years later, the reward was reduced to 25, and four years later, to 12.5...that is, half every four years, with a total of about 21 million bitcoins.
比特币有没有价值？
What's the value of Bitcoin?
比特币只是一个记账工具，负责的记账人可以活动比特币作为报酬。它的价值是人为赋予的，跟我们的钱——人民币一样。
Bitcoin is just a bookkeeping tool, and the responsible bookkeeper can move bitcoin as a reward. Its value is artificial, just like our money, the renminbi.
我们手上的人民币——纸币、微信、支付宝的余额，以及比特币统统都只是一个数字。不同的是，人民币被国家承认，它是在一个中心化支付系统上发行，而比特币在一个去中心化系统上。
The renminbi in our hands — banknotes, micro-letters, balances of payment treasures, and bitcoins are all just numbers. The difference is that the renminbi is recognized by the state as being issued on a central payment system, and bitcoin on a decentralized system.
如果有一天央行把比特币的技术应用在人民币上，技术上两者还有区别吗？不过，人民币是央行发行的，比特币则是中本聪发行的。央行代表国家，中本聪是个人，所以我们更愿意人民币，而不是比特币是有价值的。
But the renminbi is issued by the central bank, while the currency is issued by the central bank. The central bank represents the country, and the central bank is an individual, so we prefer the renminbi, not the bitcoin, to be valuable.
所以支付系统上，一个“数字”的价值就在于谁为它背书。但是，政府背书有多少是客观，有多少是主观层面的？
So in the payment system, the value of a “number” lies in who endorses it. But how many are objective and how many are subjective?
二战后，美国构建了一个叫做布雷森的金融体系，核心就是“金本位”——承诺35美元可以兑换1盎司黄金。直到1972年，中东危机，各国开始拿着美元向美国挤兑黄金。
After World War II, the US built a financial system called Bressen, with the heart of “the gold standard” – a promise of $35 ounces of gold. Until the Middle East crisis in 1972, countries began to squeeze gold from the US with the dollar.
面对蜂拥而来的挤兑，美国违约了，迅速宣布放弃金本位，美元开始疯狂贬值。如此看来，政府的信用保证也没有那么客观了，甚至很主观，人们相信美国政府的一句空头承诺而已，美元就有价值了。
Faced with a rush, the United States defaulted, quickly renounced its gold standard, and the dollar began to depreciate. Thus, the government’s credit assurances were less objective or even subjective, and the dollar was believed to be valuable if the US government’s promises were empty.
比特币也是一样。今天，它被某些企业家赋予了客观的价值（黄金是法币等价物，特斯拉汽车是比特币的等价物），而且比特币则带着硅谷的程序员、工程师、极客等一大批理想主义者的梦想，他们也给比特币赋予了主观的价值。
The same is true of Bitcoin. Today, it is given objective value by some entrepreneurs (the gold is the French equivalent, the Tesla is the Bitcoin equivalent), and by Bitcoin, with the dreams of a large number of idealists, such as Silicon Valley programmers, engineers, polarists, who also give subjective value to Bitcoin.
比特币的价格走势
The price of Bitcoin.
短时间区间内，比特币肯定会波动非常巨大，因为它的流通盘太少了。
In short-term intervals, Bitcoin is bound to be very volatile, as it has too few circulation plates.
这应该怎么理解呢？比如，按目前深圳的平均房价来计算，深圳所有房产的总值大约151万亿人民币，相当于美国股市上所有公司的总市值3/4。
How should this be understood? For example, based on the current average house price in Shenzhen, the total value of all Shenzhen properties is approximately RMB 151 trillion, equivalent to the total market value of all companies in the United States stock market of three quarters.
美国是一个自由市场，稍微有点规模的企业都上市了，更不用说特斯拉，Google、微软、IBM、英特尔、波音、沃尔玛这些优质企业。
The United States is a free market with a small number of businesses on the market, not to mention Tesla, Google, Microsoft, IBM, Intel, Boeing, Wal-Mart and other high-quality enterprises.
换句话说，深圳可以买下美国75%以上的企业了。不过，深圳房价是一小部分流通盘去支撑的，如果把深圳的房子全部投入市场，估计价格一下子就会被拉到农村的水平。
In other words, Shenzhen can buy more than 75% of the businesses in the United States. However, Shenzhen’s house price is supported by a small percentage of the circulation plate, and if Shenzhen’s house is put on the market, the estimated price will be pushed to the rural level at once.
深圳2021年1月份的前三周，挂牌的房产不过3.77万套。2020年全年成交了140657套住宅，而深圳房产在2020年初就共有1082万套，即1.5%流通盘支撑了全深圳千万套房子的价格。
In the first three weeks of January 2021 in Shenzhen, there were only 377,000 registered properties. In 2020, 140657 housing units were sold, while at the beginning of 2020 there were 1,082,000 such properties, or 1.5 per cent of the circulation plates, supporting the price of tens of thousands of houses in Shenzhen.
比特币也是一样，如果全部投放到市场肯定会崩盘，但如果只有少量在流通，则很容易被资金爆炒。
The same is true of Bitcoin, which is bound to collapse if it is fully placed in the market, but if only a small amount is in circulation, it can easily be blown up by money.
市面上多少比特币在市面流通？没有数据统计过，但所有比特币按照现价来计算，约等于一个茅台——约3万亿人民币，这总值对于任何一种货币来说都实在太小了。
How much bitcoins are on the market? No data are available, but all bitcoins, at current prices, are about the same amount as a hut — about 3 trillion yuan, which is too small for any currency.
而且，即使有10%的比特币流通也不过3000亿人民币市值，约合480亿美元左右，等于一只大型对冲基金的规模而已。
Moreover, even 10 per cent of the Bitcoins were in circulation at a market value of RMB 300 billion or about US$ 48 billion, which was equivalent to the size of a large hedge fund.
总市值不够大是比特币价格会大起大落的原因。跟深圳房价一样，流通盘越大价格越难以维持。而且由于比特币总量是限定的，价格涨的越厉害，捂盘惜售的人也会越多，价格也会继续涨。
As with Shenzhen’s house prices, the bigger the price of the palettes, the more difficult it is to maintain. And, given that the amount of bitcoins is limited, the higher the price, the larger the price, and the more the price will continue to rise.
现在已经挖出了1700多万枚，最后一批400万枚比特币会被挖出来，但大部分都会在电子钱包里躺着。
More than 17 million pieces have been excavated and the last batch of 4 million bitcoins will be excavated, but most of them will lie in electronic wallets.
未来8~10年，比特币价格会在大幅振动过程中走向巅峰。
In the next 8-10 years, bitcoin prices will peak in the course of a significant vibration.
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For more information, please focus on Cold War Technology.
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