由中国时报网记者赵奕、胡金华联合上海报道，4月20日8:09，比特币在其区块高度840000处顺利完成历史性的第四次“减半”事件，该区块由ViaBTC成功开采。减半后，比特币矿工每日通过验证交易产生的比特币数量由之前的900个锐减至450个，矿工所得奖励亦相应从每个区块6.25个比特币降至3.125个。
On 20 April, at 8:09, Bitcoin successfully completed the historic fourth “half” of its area at an altitude of 840,000, which was successfully mined by ViaBTC. After halving, the number of bitcoins generated by daily certified transactions by Bitcoin miners fell from 900 to 450, and the incentives received by miners fell accordingly from 6.25 to 3.125 per block.
减半事件过后，比特币价格略有上扬，截止发稿时，比特币最新价为64142.2美元，24小时内涨幅达2.79%。与此同时，其他虚拟货币如以太坊亦跟随反弹，重新站上3000美元关口，现报价为3063.12美元，24小时内微增1.85%。据Coinglass数据，过去24小时内，总计逾5万投资者遭遇强制平仓，爆仓总额高达1.63亿美元。
After halving, bitcoin prices rose slightly, with the latest price of bitcoins increasing by 2.79% in 24 hours at the time of the release. At the same time, other virtual currencies, such as the Ethernos, followed the rebound and re-emerged at $3,000, are now quoted at $3063.12, a small increase of 1.85% in 24 hours.
鉴于供应量缩减，"减半"通常被视为牛市的利好因素。然而，此番减半前夕，比特币价格却呈现震荡行情，令众多意图借此囤积的投资者蒙受损失。在地缘政治紧张局势升温背景下，减半前一天，比特币曾急挫至59500美元低位，一小时内即有超过700万美元爆仓。此外，在4月17日和14日，比特币也曾两度从6.5万美元价位跌穿6万美元门槛。
In view of the shrinking supply, "50-percent" is usually considered a good factor in the cattle market. However, on the eve of halving the price of Bitcoin, there was a shock and loss of many investors who sought to hoard it.
上海兰迪律师事务所高级合伙人田磊在接受《华夏时报》采访时表示，地缘政治紧张导致国际间经济交流减少，进而使得对比特币的需求下降，促使其价格瞬间跳水。虽然比特币被誉为“避险资产”，具备匿名性、加密性等特点，但在战争时期，其网络依赖性强的特点并不适宜用作优质避险工具。
In an interview with the Washington Times, the senior partner of the law firm in Shanghai Landy said that geopolitical tensions had led to a reduction in international economic exchanges, thereby reducing the demand for bitcoin, prompting its price to jump. While Bitcoin was known as a “risk-free asset” with anonymity, encryption, etc., in times of war, its web-dependent character was not appropriate as a high-quality safety tool.
近期比特币价格波动受到多重因素影响，中国民协Web3.0工委常务副会长吴高斌分析指出，一方面，美国持续通胀压力和地缘政治紧张加剧全球经济不确定性，投资者对风险资产的需求减退，加密货币市场难免受到影响；另一方面，比特币减半事件本身对未来市场的具体影响仍存不确定性，部分投资者在减半前急于锁定利润，从而引起市场价格波动。
Recent price fluctuations in Bitcoin have been affected by multiple factors, with the Standing Vice-President of the China National Association Web3.0 Committee, Wu Goobin, analysing that, on the one hand, persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions in the United States have exacerbated global economic uncertainty, and that investors' demand for venture assets has dwindled and encrypted currency markets are inevitably affected; on the other hand, the specific impact of the halving of Bitcoin itself on future markets remains uncertain, with some investors eager to lock in profits before halving, leading to market price volatility.
回首过去的三次减半情况，数据表明，在减半事件发生的前30天，比特币价格分别上涨5%、13%和27%。每次减半后的一段时间内，比特币地址总数均呈现显著增长，分别增加了83%、101%和11%。不过，减半后的回撤期同样显着，2016年和2019年两次事件都伴随着大幅度的回调。
Looking back on the last three halves, data show that, 30 days before the halving event, the prices of Bitcoin rose by 5%, 13%, and 27%, respectively. Over a period of time after the halving, the total number of Bitcoin addresses increased significantly, by 83%, 101%, and 11%, respectively.
值得关注的是，本次比特币减半背景与前三次有所区别，由于贝莱德、富达等公司推出的比特币现货ETF在美国开始交易，华夏基金、博时基金等机构的同类产品也在香港证监会获准。区块链分析公司Chain Analysis负责人指出，第四次减半发生在一个机构投资者大规模入场的时代，他们正逐渐塑造市场轨迹，将传统金融的信任度、稳定性和关注带入比特币市场的新阶段，比特币也因此进一步融入全球经济体系，为其需求和应用拓展出全新路径。
It is a matter of concern that this halving of Bitcoin is different from the first three times, and that since the Bitcoin spot ETF introduced by Belede, Fuda, and others started trading in the United States, similar products such as the summer fund and the Bo time fund were approved by the Hong Kong Censorship. The head of the block-chain analysis company, Chain Analysis, noted that the fourth halving took place in an era of large-scale entry of institutional investors, who were gradually shaping market trajectories and bringing traditional financial confidence, stability, and concerns into the new phase of the Bitcoin market, thereby further integrating Bitcoin into the global economic system and opening up new paths to their needs and applications.
围绕比特币后续走势，业内意见不一。摩根大通分析师认为比特币短期内将承受卖压，理由是市场已过度买入。德意志银行也持类似观点，指出市场已在一定程度上消化了比特币减半的影响，预计减半后比特币价格不会有大幅上涨。尽管如此，德银认为，现货以太坊ETF审批通过、央行政策调整预期等因素将继续支撑比特币价格保持高位。
The Deutsche Bank has a similar view, stating that the market has partially absorbed the impact of the halving of bitcoins, and that the price of bitcoins is not expected to rise significantly after the halving. Nonetheless, the Deutsche Bank believes that spot prices will continue to support Bitcoins’ high prices with such factors as the approval of Taiyo ETFs and central bank policy adjustment expectations.
新加坡银行外汇策略师Moh Siong Si则指出，目前市场处于避险模式，作为风险资产的比特币或将遭到投资者冷落。不过，另一些机构看好比特币后市表现，如加密研究机构PlanB、Glassnode预测，比特币价格将于2024年突破10万美元。Pantera Capital更是预言，在整个牛市周期结束后，比特币价格有望于2025年攀升至14.9万美元。
The Singapore bank’s foreign-exchange strategist, Moh Siong Si, states that the market is currently in a risky mode, with bitcoin as a risky asset that is likely to be ignored by investors. However, other agencies view post-bitcoin performance, such as the encryption institute PlanB, and Glasnode, which predicts that bitco’s price will break by $100,000 in 2024.
比特币减半无疑给矿工们带来了严峻考验。除了挖矿奖励减半，部分矿工由于收益缩水可能被迫退出市场，从而导致比特币的哈希率在减半后通常出现下滑。哈希率作为衡量挖矿和处理比特币交易总计算能力的关键指标，其下降可能影响网络安全性，但通常会在中期逐步恢复。历史数据显示，在过去三次减半中，全网哈希率平均在57天内恢复到减半前水平。
In addition to halving the incentives for mining, some miners may be forced to withdraw from the market because of shrinking revenues, resulting in a general decline in the Hashi ratio after halving. The decline in the Hashi rate, a key indicator of the ability to calculate the total amount of Bitcoin transactions for mining and processing, may affect cybersecurity, but it will usually recover gradually in the medium term.
受减半影响，业内普遍预计加密矿业将经历一轮深度洗牌。天使投资人、知名互联网专家郭涛在接受《华夏时报》采访时表示，减半将直接影响矿工收入，可能导致小型或效率低下的矿商出局，而大型矿商则需通过提高效率、降低成本以适应新形势。郭涛认为，未来比特币矿业将朝着规模化和专业化的方向发展，随着挖矿难度加大和奖励减少，唯有实现规模经济和提高运营效率的矿商才能在市场竞争中立足。
In an interview with the summer Times, Angel investors and well-known Internet expert Guo Tao said that the reduction would have a direct impact on miners’ incomes and could lead to the release of small or inefficient miners, while large miners needed to adapt to the new situation by improving efficiency and reducing costs. Guo Tao argued that in the future the Bitcoin mine would move toward scale and specialization, and that only miners with economies of scale and operational efficiency would be able to compete in the market as mining became more difficult and less rewarding.
加密市场的监管动向不容忽视。近日，美国国税局（IRS）公布的1099-DA表格草案，旨在对数字资产相关收益或损失进行税务计算，要求列出代币代码、钱包地址及关联区块链等详细信息。这一举措意味着监管部门将对加密货币领域的税收监管愈发严格。吴高斌认为，长远看，加强监管利于加密货币市场的健康长远发展，促使投资者更为理智地参与市场，遏制非法交易与洗钱行为。短期来看，税收政策变动可能引发市场波动，投资者需密切关注政策动态，审慎评估风险。
In the near future, IRS has published a draft Form 1099-DA, which aims at tax calculations for gains or losses related to digital assets, requiring detailed information such as token codes, wallet addresses, and associated block chains. This initiative means that regulators will be more stringent about tax regulation in the area of encryption currency.
今年3月底，美国司法部起诉加密货币交易所KuCoin及其创始人，指控其违反《银行保密法》，开展未经许可的资金传输业务。与此同时，CFTC亦对KuCoin提起民事诉讼，称其旗下多家实体因无证从事场外商品期货交易、杠杆交易等违法行为违反了商品交易法（CEA）及相关法规。对此，江瀚表示，随着加密货币市场的壮大，监管层面将强化市场管理，确保市场的稳定与合规，涵盖更为严格的交易规定、税收制度以及反洗钱与反恐怖融资措施等方面。田磊也认为，由于加密货币有可能取代主权货币并易成为规避外汇监管的工具，现行的强监管态势在短期内难以改变。
At the end of March, the U.S. Department of Justice sued KuCoin and his founder, accusing him of violating the Bank Secrecy Act and carrying out unauthorized money transmission operations. At the same time, the CFTC filed a civil suit against KuCoin, claiming that several entities under its flag had violated the Commercial Trading Act (CEA) and related regulations because of irregularities such as unlicensed over-the-counter commodity futures and leverage transactions.
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