从 $0 到 $1,000: 1789 天；
From $0.0 to $1,000: 1789 days;
从$1,000到 $2,000：1271天 ；
From $1,000 to $2,000:1271 days;
从$6,000 到 $7,000: 13天 ；
From $6,000 to $7,000: 13 days;
从$7,000 到 $8,000: 14天 ；
From $7,000 to $8,000: 14 days;
从$8,000 到 $9,000: 9天 ；
From $8,000 to $9,000:9 days;
从$9,000 到 $10,000: 2 天 ；
From $9,000 to $10,000:2 days;
从$11,000 到 $12,000: 6 天；
From $11,000 to $12,000:6 days; & nbsp;
从$12,000 到 $13,000: 17小时；
From $12,000 to $13,000: 17 hours; & nbsp;
从$13,000 到 $14,000: 4小时 ；
From $13,000 to $14,000:4 hours;
从$14,000 到 $15,000: 10小时 ；
From $14,000 to $15,000:10 hours;
从$15,000 到 $16,000: 5小时 ；
From $15,000 to $16,000:5 hours;
从$16,000 到 $17,000: 2小时 ；
From $16,000 to $17,000: 2 hours;
从$17,000 到 $18,000: 10分钟 ；
From $17,000 to $18,000:10 minutes;
从$18,000 到 $19,000：3分钟 ......
From $18,000 to $19,000:3 minutes...
当然，越往上涨，1000美元的百分比越低，速度越快，之后可能要以秒计。仅仅七年之前，一枚比特币仅仅价值0.05美元；而仅仅七年之后，1000美元仅仅能买0.05个比特币而已。
Of course, the higher the 1,000-dollar percentage, the faster the rate, then the second. Just seven years ago, a bitcoin was worth just 0.05 dollars; just seven years later, $1,000 could buy 0.05 bitcoins. & nbsp;
最近，无论是来自我的客户还是来自社交媒体，有一个问题愈来愈炙手可热。他们都在问：你怎么看比特币？而我也一反说话模棱两可的职业习惯，无比斩钉截铁地说：我认为这就是个泡沫，请不要在作死的边缘试探。
Recently, there has been a growing problem, whether from my clients or from social media. They're asking, "What do you think of Bitcoin?" And I'm speaking in an ambiguous professional habit, saying, "I think it's a bubble. Don't try on the edge of death."
熟悉我的人知道我本人很反感“泡沫”一词，在《泡沫啊泡沫，我为你拍照》一文里，我谈到过“理性的泡沫”这个概念，来自于市场参与者们虽然针锋相对、分而不群、但却依然理性的对资产未来价值的看法。我的结论是“几乎谁都不能对泡沫有极端精准、黑白分明的看穿”。所以从2013年以来老有人喊美股泡沫，而我一直是“美股泡沫”坚定的多头。
Those familiar with me know that I myself hate the word "foam," and I spoke about the concept of "blast of reason" in Foams, I took a picture of you. It comes from the view of market participants about the future value of assets, albeit relative, fragmented, but still rational. My conclusion is that “none can see the bubble in extreme precision, black and white.” So, since 2013, I've been calling for bubbles in the United States, and I've been a strong plethora of bubbles in the United States.
市场后来的事实也证明，泡沫确实没那么容易被看穿。
Subsequent facts in the market also prove that foams are not that easy to see through.
但比特币是一头完全不同的动物。就目前的比特币交易本身来看，乃是标准的零和游戏，前人的利润来自于后人支付的溢价，也就是俗称的博傻——许多人说楼市是零和游戏，甚至于股市，但是无论股票还是楼盘都可以产生较稳定的现金流——而比特币你要怎么制造现金流？不过你倒可以通过借币给空头去卖空来获得一点现金补偿，但这岂不有点讽刺。
But Bitcoin is a completely different animal. As far as the current bitcoin deal itself is concerned, it is a standard zero-sum game, where the profits of the former are derived from premiums paid by later generations, the so-called dummies — many say that the market is zero-sum, even in the stock market, but whether the stock or the plate can produce a more stable cash flow — and how does Bitcoin make the cash flow? But it is not a bit ironic that you can borrow money to sell the empty head.
所以我一直认为比特币就投资而言没有什么内在价值。如果1000美金/枚的时候我认为她是一个泡沫，那到了10000美金她又是什么——膨胀了十倍的泡沫呗。
So I've always thought that bitcoin had little intrinsic value for investment. If I thought she was a bubble at $1,000, what did she have at $10,000 -- a ten-fold bubble?
我无法接受这么一个逻辑：1000美金的时候她是泡沫，而到了10000美金的时候她就是主权货币的颠覆者、去中心化的美丽新世界了？
I can't accept the logic that at $1,000 she was a bubble, and at $10,000 she was a saboteur of sovereign currency, decentralised and beautiful new world?
但是我的观点算个屁。所以我就继续做一个知识和观点的搬运工，为大家搜罗了众多大咖对比特币针尖麦芒的观点——有怀疑者，有支持者，有搓着小手跃跃欲试的观望者，也有喜忧参半的监管者。某一些观点也不仅仅针对比特币，同时针对数字货币这一大类资产本身。
But my point of view is far from anything. So I continue to work as a porter of knowledge and opinion, searching for the views of a lot of big pickey needles — there are skeptics, there are supporters, there are viewers with small-handed leaps, and there are mixed regulators. Some ideas are not just about bitcoins, but also about the larger asset of digital money itself.
一：怀疑派代表
一辩：沃伦·巴菲特
“比特币不是货币，它不满足货币的定义。如果十年或者二十年后比特币消失无踪，我不会惊讶。”“因为，别人卖东西给你，他们可能会接受你的比特币，但是他们会由于比特币兑美元的价格而不停地改变其“以比特币计算的价格”。所以说到底交易仍然是以美元定价的。这就好比我卖东西给你而我愿意收你的原油作为对价，但是每次石油价格变化，我都要改变价格来决定到底收几桶油。而原油明显就不是货币。”
& nbsp; "Bitcoin is not a currency, it does not meet the definition of currency. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin disappeared after 10 or 20 years." “because, if someone sells something to you, they may accept your bitcoin, but they constantly change their "bitcoin" price against the United States dollar.
“远离比特币，它基本上就是个海市蜃楼。这是一种转移资金的方式。它可以很有效地转移资金而你也可以匿名操作。但是支票也可以转移资金。支票本能值那么多钱吗？仅仅因为它们能够转钱？”
"Away from Bitcoin, it's basically a mirage. It's a way of transferring money. It can be very efficient, and you can use it anonymously. But a check can also transfer money. Is it always worth that much? Just because they can transfer money?"
“我希望比特币能成为一种更好的办法，但是你有很多其他的方法来复制操作。有人认为比特币有巨大的内在价值，这在我看来这就是一个笑话。它就是一张非常快的匿名的汇票。”
"I want Bitcoin to be a better way to do this. There are many other ways to copy it. Some people think bitcoin has a huge intrinsic value. That's a joke to me. It's a very quick, anonymous bill of exchange
“你不能为比特币做估值，它就不是一个生产价值的资产 ……它是那种真正的泡沫。”
& nbsp; "You can't value bitcoin, it's not a productive asset... it's a real bubble." & nbsp;
“一样资产的内在价值可以简单地定义为：在这项资产的有生之年里所有未来现金流的折现价值。”
“The intrinsic value of the same asset can simply be defined as the discounted value of all future cash flows in the lifetime of the asset.” & nbsp;
“这玩意儿不靠谱。它不受监管、不受控制。它不受美联储和任何中央银行的监督。我完全不相信这整件事情。我认为它迟早要内爆。”
"This thing doesn't work. It's unsupervised and uncontrollable. It's not under the supervision of the Fed and any central bank. I don't believe it at all. I think it'll explode sooner or later."
二辩：霍华德·马克斯
“关于创新性投资的话题让我提到比特币、以太币和其他数字货币。我想这是由于在金融危机之后八零后九零后对于金融证券——包括主权货币的价值——的那种不信任，认为一切都是虚无。但是数字货币不是真的。”
“The topic of innovative investment allows me to refer to bitcoin, tasco, and other digital currencies. I think this is because of the distrust of financial instruments — including the value of sovereign currencies — after 80 years and 90 years of the financial crisis, which is nothing. But digital currencies are not real.”
“某些公司和个人接受比特币作为支付方式。有些人愿意买以太币因为以太币可以用来在以太币网络里买计算能力。有些人渴望赌一把获利。还有一些人愿意少量参与，避免自己完全踏空。但是数字货币不是真的！有人总是告诉我，这些货币很坚挺，他们很安全不会被黑或者被伪造，另外它们的数量绝对有限。但是数字货币不是真的！！！！！”
"Some companies and individuals accept bitcoin as a way of payment. Some people are willing to buy bitcoin because it can be used to compute . Some are eager to gamble for profit. Others are willing to engage a small amount of money to avoid completely vacating themselves. But digital currencies are not true. Some always tell me that they are strong, they are safe not to be blacked or forged, and their numbers are absolutely limited. But digital currencies are not real!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“我的结论是：你可以用幻想中的货币去买另一种想象中的货币，或者去投资一些创造新货币的公司。”
& nbsp; “My conclusion is that you can buy another imaginary currency or invest in companies that create new money.”
“在《bubble.com》一文中我通过我父亲的几个老笑话来总结电子商务的一些不合逻辑之处，我认为这些笑话100%可以适用在目前这场数字货币大潮中： 两个哥们在街头相遇。Joe 告诉 Bob说他要卖一只仓鼠，又纯种又聪慧。Bob 说我想买一只给我的小孩，要多少钱？ Joe说：50万美元。Bob说 Joe 你是不是疯掉了。 第二天他们又不期而遇。Bob问，你的仓鼠卖得咋样了？Joe说，卖掉了。Bob问，那你拿到50万了？Joe说，恩拿到了，我拿到了两只价值25万的金丝雀。”
"In Bubble.com, I summarize some of the distortions of e-commerce through a few old jokes of my father, and I think that 100% of these jokes can be applied to the current digital money surge: two buddies meet in the street. Joe tells Bob that he wants to sell a hamster, pure and smart. Bob says I want to buy a kid for me. Joe says: 500,000 dollars. Bob says Joe says you're crazy. They meet again the next day. Bob asks how your hamster sold? Joe says you sold.
“也许是我老古董，不能欣赏数字货币在技术上的伟大之处。但在我坚定的信念里，这种东西能够被接受只能证明现在财务小白太多——他们追逐风险、痴心妄想。我认为数字货币不过就是一场狂热，定价仅仅基于他人愿意支付的价格。但这已经不是第一次了。1637年的郁金香狂热、1720年的南海泡沫、1999年到2000年的互联网泡沫，都是如此。”
"Maybe I'm an antiquity, and I can't appreciate the technological greatness of digital money. But in my firm conviction, it can only be accepted that there is too much money now -- they're risk-seeking, paranoid. I think digital money is nothing more than a frenzy
“用一个之于内在价值有吸引力的价格去买入资产，这才是严肃的投资行为。而投机是指买入资产的理由完全不考虑价值或者合理价格，而完全基于认为有人在未来愿意支付更高的价格。”
“It is a serious investment to buy an asset at an inherently valuable price. Speculation means that the reason for buying an asset is completely regardless of value or reasonable price, and is based solely on the belief that someone is willing to pay a higher price in the future.” & nbsp;
由于这份备忘录受市场关注度太高，马克斯收到了很多评论与批评，尤其是针对比特币。所以在咨询了他的同事以及Horizon Kinetics的一些顾问之后，马克斯认为他看比特币看错了，尤其他父亲的那个老笑话。马克斯对他的备忘录做了更新：
Because of the high market profile of the memorandum, Marks received many comments and criticisms, especially against Bitcoin. After consulting his colleague and some of Horizon Kinettics’ consultants, Max thought he was wrong to see Bitcoin, especially his father’s old joke. Max updated his memo:
“我认为这个笑话应该改成：两个哥们在街头相遇，一个对另一个说：我手上有一些高智商的沙丁鱼做的罐头，一些世界级艺术大师在罐头上搞了创作，你想要买吗？另一个哥们答：好呀，多少钱一个？—— 10000美金。——你是不是疯掉了？谁会吃10000美金的沙丁鱼。—— 这些不是用来吃的沙丁鱼，这些是专门用来交易的沙丁鱼罐头。 我曾认为数字货币是‘用来投资的沙丁鱼’，我错了；数字货币的粉丝们告诉我这是‘用来花的沙丁鱼’，他们也错了；这些根本就是‘用来交易的沙丁鱼’。”
"I think this joke should be replaced by: two buddies meeting in the street, one saying to the other: "I've got some canned sardines made of high-intellectual sardines, and some world-class artists working on the cans. Do you want to buy them? Another guy says: "Yes, how much is one?" -- $10000. -- Are you crazy? Who eats 10,000 sardines? -- these are not sardines for sardines; these are sardines for trading. I thought the digital currency was `sardines for investing,' and I was wrong; the fan of the digital currency told me it was `sardines for spending', and they were wrong; these are basically sardines for trading."
“最后这个问题就演化到，比特币到底是：1. 一种货币？2. 一种支付方式？3. 一种资产类型？4. 一个赌具？ …… 在原先的备忘录里我将比特币当成了一种资产类型，虽然比特币粉丝告诉我你这角度是错的，但他们中的一些人曾经也说过：这是一种新的资产类型。好吧，他们现在告诉我这是一种货币。”
“Finally, the question evolved to the extent that Bitcoin was: 1. A currency? 2. A mode of payment? 3. An asset type? 4. An object of gambling?... In the original memorandum I treated Bitcoin as an asset type, although Bitcoin fans told you that you were wrong, some of them
“从‘交易双方同意接受某种媒介作为交换对价以及价值贮藏方式’这一点上说，我对比特币是一种货币没有意见，这就像美金。但是比粉们觉得这还不够，他们说：不对啊这不像美金，它比美金这种法币好多了——交易信息透明，不能被滥发被稀释，也不能被黑被偷。 行，我都同意。比特币是一种货币。我只有两个问题：1. 为什么它波动那么大？2. 为什么它如此受欢迎？”
“From the point that ‘the parties to the deal agree to accept a medium as a means of exchange and storage of values’, I have no problem with a currency, like a dollar. But it's not enough than the powders think it is. They say, ‘No, it's not like the dollar, it's better than a coin like the dollar – the information is transparent, it cannot be diluted, it cannot be blacked.’ I agree. Bitcoin is a currency. I have only two questions: 1. Why is it so volatile? 2. Why is it so popular?” & nbsp;
最后结论是：
The final conclusion is that:
“1. 比粉说：‘如果比特币真正被接受，那么你可以获得50倍的回报。由于这个预期收益率是如此地高，所以成功的概率并不需要很高。’这叫做‘彩票思维’，所以这种投机行为看起来不亏。我们在互联网泡沫的时候见到过很多，关于比特币我们现在也正在见到。没有任何事比一夜暴富的可能性更诱人。”
“1. It says: 'If Bitcoin is really accepted, then you get 50 times the return. Because this expected rate of return is so high, the probability of success does not have to be high.' It's called the lottery thinking, so this speculation looks good. We've seen a lot about the Internet bubble, and we're seeing bitcoin now. Nothing is more attractive than the possibility of being rich overnight."
“2. 价格膨胀的三个种子在比特币身上都能看到：1. 底层的真相（指比特币的一些特性）；2. 一种对良性循环的预期（需求——比特币被广泛接受——更大的需求）；3. 因为没有逻辑上的限制，所以价格可以涨到天上去。”
“2. The three seeds of price inflation can be seen in bitcoin: 1. The bottom truth (which refers to some of the characteristics of bitcoin); 2. An expectation of a virtuous circle (demand — bitcoin is widely accepted — greater demand); 3. Because there are no logical constraints, prices can rise to the sky.”
“3. 最后，比特币不是唯一的。除了比特币之外还有成百上千种数字货币，市值超过10亿美元的就有11种（马克斯在撰写此文的时候比特币还只有4600美元）——并且对新的数字货币的创造也没有限定机制。所以就算数字货币代表未来，那我们怎么知道哪种货币能胜出呢？”
“3. Finally, Bitcoin is not the only one. In addition to Bitcoin, there are hundreds of digital currencies, with 11 worth more than $1 billion (which, at the time of writing, was only $4,600) -- and there are no defined mechanisms for the creation of new digital currencies. So, even if digital currencies represent the future, how do we know which ones will win?" & nbsp;
“感谢那些抽时间教育我的人，我可能不再那么老古董了。我认为我理解什么是比特币、它的操作机理、和它的一些优势。但是我仍然不会放自己的钱进去，因为我认为这是一个投机泡沫。如果我最后被证明是大错特错的，我也愿意接受。”
“Thanks to those who took time to educate me, I may not be as old-fashioned as I am. I think I understand what bitcoin is, how it works, and some of its advantages. But I still won't put my money in, because I think it's a speculative bubble. If I was finally proved to be wrong, I'd accept it.”
三辩：罗伯特·席勒
“人们在比特币上有一种吊诡的热情。大家好像对新的货币规则都超级兴奋。还记得复本位制吗？这最后就变成一场短暂的狂热，一时间大家都在谈论，然后就消失了。”
"There's a strange passion for bitcoin. Everyone seems to be super excited about the new currency rules. Remember the copy system
“我认为黄金就是一个泡沫，但它一直以来是一个泡沫，它就像持续了几千年的一场狂热。但是黄金是一个符合逻辑的货币候选。我不认为比特币也能如此符合逻辑，但是它确实让人兴奋不已。”
“比特币是当今世界投机泡沫的最好的例子，至少符合我对泡沫的定义。我在2005年出版的《非理性繁荣》一书中将泡沫定义为这样一种情况：价格上涨的信息刺激了投资者的热情，并且这种热情通过心理的相互影响在人与人之间逐步扩散，在此过程中，越来越多的投资者加入到推动价格上涨的投机行列，完全不考虑资产的实际价值，而一味地沉浸在对其他投资者发迹的羡慕与赌徒般的兴奋中。”
“Bitcoin is the best example of the speculative bubble in the world today, at least in my definition of the bubble. I defined the bubble in the book Unreasonable Prosperity, published in 2005, as a situation in which the information of price rises stimulates investor enthusiasm and, through psychological interaction, spreads between people, and in the process, more and more investors are joining the speculation that drives price rises, taking no account of the real value of the assets, while immersing themselves in the envy and gambler-like excitement of other investors.”
“ 2013年比特币的价值被这么几个故事驱使：1. 一种在数字空间中存在的不受政府干涉与控制的货币。这个概念对思想独立的年轻人们具有强烈吸引力，很炫酷。2. 比特币的概念里有数学和密码学的色彩，所以给这个故事更加上一种007电影一般的间谍感，也很炫酷。3. 我们从来都不知道发明比特币的天才中本聪到底是谁，还是很炫酷。这种极具题材性的故事有很强的感染力，然后在2017年，ICO的出现，又给这个故事添上一丝投行色彩。”
& nbsp; “The value of Bitcoin in 2013 is driven by several stories: 1. A currency that exists in digital space free of government interference and control. This concept is highly attractive to young people with independent ideas. It's cool. 2. Bitcoin's concept is mathematical and cryptological, so it's more of a general sense of espionage in 007 films, and it's cool. 3. We never know who the genius who invented Bitcoin is or whether it's cool. And in 2017, ICO
“通常而言你不需要任何外部条件来反转一场泡沫。泡沫自己就会慢慢破掉，就像比特币在2014年一样。泡沫一词作为一个比喻可能会引起误解。投机泡沫并不会就这样一下子就结束掉。其实我认为叫做‘投机性流行病’可能更好，因为我们知道病毒会变异，可能会重新爆发。黄金就是一系列反复爆发的投机泡沫，从远古而始，至千年之后。”
“usually you don't need any external conditions to reverse a bubble. The bubble itself will break down, as Bitcoins did in 2014. The word bubble, as a metaphor, may be misleading. Speculatory bubbles don't just end. I think it's better, because we know the virus will change, and it may re-emerge. Gold is a series of speculative bubbles that explode from ancient times to millennia.”
怀疑派总结陈词： 雷·达里奥
“比特币，即使到了今天，你还是不能用它做很多交易，你也不能像花现金一样容易地花掉它。由于极强的波动性，它也不是一个有效的财富贮藏方式。比特币市场是一个强投机市场。比特币是一个泡沫。”
& nbsp; "Bitcoin, even today, you can't make a lot of deals with it, and you can't spend it as easily as cash. It's not an effective way to store wealth because of extreme volatility. Bitcoin is a powerful speculative market. Bitcoin is a bubble."
二：支持者代表
一辩：马克·安德森
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