“今年以来涨幅最大的品种，不是牛气延续的美股，也不是触底反弹的A股，更不是持续上涨的原油期货，而是比特币。”一位比特币投资者向记者自豪地表示。
“The largest increase since this year has not been in the United States stock, nor in the A share, which has hit the bottom, nor in the crude oil futures, which have continued to rise, but in bitcoin.” A bitcoin investor has proudly expressed to journalists.
截至5月13日21时，比特币报价徘徊在年内新高7322.10美元附近，较年初涨幅超过90%。
As at 2100 hours on 13 May, the Bitcoin offer hovered around a new high of $7322.10 during the year, an increase of more than 90 per cent compared with the beginning of the year.
在上述比特币投资者看来，比特币这轮久违的大涨，一方面得益于Facebook、JP Morgan、富达投资等众多互联网机构与金融机构正加快虚拟数字货币的托管交易布局，可能给比特币带来庞大的增量资金入场，另一方面则“归功”于近日中美贸易摩擦升级令比特币的避险功能再度得到充分展现，令比特币出现连涨12个交易日的盛宴。
In the view of the above-mentioned Bitcoin investors, the far-fetched surge in Bitcoin, which has benefited, on the one hand, from the fact that a large number of Internet and financial institutions, such as Facebook, JP Morgan, and Fuda Investments, are accelerating the hosting of virtual digital money, may bring significant incremental capital to Bitcoin, and, on the other hand, the recent upgrading of US-American trade has allowed Bitcone's risk-free functions to be fully demonstrated again, giving Bitcoin a 12-day boom.
“不过，随着比特币报价快速突破7000美元，现在比特币交易市场正进入一个敏感期。”一位4月起参与比特币投资的美国宏观经济型对冲基金经理向记者直言。去年以来比特币价格多次冲击6000美元未果，导致这个价格区间附近积累了庞大的套牢盘，如今比特币突破7000美元整数关口，这些套牢盘是否顺势解套离场，某种程度影响着比特币这轮上涨行情是否戛然而止。
“However, with the Bitcoin offer fast-tracking over $7,000, the Bitcoin trading market is now entering a sensitive period.” A US macro-economic hedge fund manager, who has been investing in bitcoin since April, has spoken out to journalists. The price of bitcoin has hit $6,000 several times since last year, leading to the build-up of a huge pantry near this price range, and now Bitcoin has crossed the $7,000 integer threshold.
值得注意的是，随着比特币价格持续快速上涨，多国央行高层纷纷站出来给比特币避险投资热“泼冷水”。
It is worth noting that, as the price of bitcoin continues to rise at a rapid rate, the upper echelons of the multinational central banks have come forward to “squeak” bitcoin for risk-free investment.
5月9日，欧洲中央银行（ECB）行长Mario Draghi在参加“ECB青年对话”活动时表示，比特币等数字加密货币并非真正的货币，而是资产。
On 9 May, Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), in his participation in the ECB Youth Dialogue, stated that digitally encrypted currencies such as Bitcoin were not real currencies but assets.
“欧洲央行为欧元提供着支撑，谁又为加密货币提供支撑呢？所以他们是非常非常具有风险的资产，它们的价值正如你所见是非常疯狂的。目前来讲，它们并不足以对我们的经济造成巨大影响，所以我们趋向于将它们视为一种投机性资产，具有极高风险。”Mario Draghi直言。
“The ECB provides support for the euro, and who supports the encoded currency? So they are very risky assets, and their value, as you can see, is crazy.
日本中央银行行长黑田东彦也在当天表示，加密资产并不属于法定货币范畴，且极不稳定。同时加密资产基本不会用于支付和结算，而是用于投机。
On the same day, the Governor of the Central Bank of Japan, Mr. Kuroda, also stated that encrypted assets did not fall within the legal currency and were highly unstable. At the same time, encrypted assets were largely not used for payment and settlement, but for speculation.
“但现在市场似乎对多国央行高层的警告选择漠视，因为中美贸易摩擦升级所引发的全球股市大幅动荡回调风险与避险投资潮涌，正让比特币投资者看到新的价格迭创年内新高与短期获利空间。”上述美国宏观经济型对冲基金经理指出。
“But the market now seems to be indifferent to the warning choices of the high-level multinational central banks, as the global stock market, triggered by the rise in trade friction between Central America and the United States, is experiencing a surge in volatile global stock markets that are rewinding risk and risk-avoidance investment and are giving Bitcoin investors new price opportunities for new high- and short-term profitability in the year.” The US macroeconomic hedge fund manager noted above.
避险投资首选比特币不选黄金
preferred bitcoin not gold >/strong
令多位对冲基金经理倍感惊讶的是，随着5月中美贸易摩擦升级，整个金融市场突然将比特币视为最佳的避险投资港湾。
Many hedge fund managers were surprised that, with the escalation of trade friction between the United States and the United States in May, the entire financial market suddenly saw Bitcoin as the best safe haven for investment.
5月4日以来，比特币价格上涨幅度超过26%，远远跑赢同期传统避险资产黄金（1.2%）与10年期美国国债（3.95%）的涨幅。
Since 4 May, the price of Bitcoin has risen by more than 26 per cent, far from winning the rise in gold (1.2 per cent) of traditional hedge assets over the same period and the 10-year increase in the United States Treasury debt (3.95 per cent).
究其原因，是大量投资机构看到比特币相比黄金、美国国债更具避险投资优势。
This is due to the fact that a large number of investment agencies have seen bitcoin as a more risk-free investment advantage than gold and United States national debt.
以黄金为例，多位对冲基金调研发现，当前很多黄金开采商正趁着年初大型投行纷纷看涨黄金价格，正在加大投入开采更多黄金以弥补前些年高价买矿的“亏损”，加之日本投资者今年以来受金价上涨影响而逢高抛售黄金，令黄金供需关系保持相对平稳，令金价上涨受限而无法吸引避险资金的投资目光。
In the case of gold, several hedge funds have found that many gold miners are now investing more in gold to compensate for the “loss” of higher prices in previous years, taking advantage of large-scale investment earlier in the year, and that Japanese investors, who have been affected by rising gold prices since this year, have been selling gold at high prices, keeping the supply-demand relationship relatively stable and limiting the price of gold from attracting investment in hedge funds.
美国国债则由于收益率偏低（债券价格偏高），加之市场普遍预期美联储下半年未必会如市场预期般选择降息，导致美债价格上涨空间同样受限。
U.S. government debt is also constrained by low yields (high bond prices), coupled with market expectations that the Fed will not necessarily opt to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, as expected by the market.
相比而言，当时处于5700美元附近的比特币较历史峰值19000美元依然下跌了逾70%，加之近期Facebook、JP Morgan、富达投资等众多互联网机构与金融机构正加快虚拟数字货币的托管交易布局，可能给比特币带来庞大的增量资金入场，以及明年下半年发生的产量减半预期往往会在一年前发酵，因此比特币反而比黄金、美债更具避险投资优势与价格反弹爆发力。
By contrast, Bitcoin, which was close to $5,700 at that time, continued to fall by more than 70 per cent from its historical peak of $19,000, and a number of Internet institutions and financial institutions, such as Facebook, JP Morgan, Fuda and others, have recently been accelerating the hosting of virtual digital currency transactions, which could result in significant incremental capital inflows for Bitcoin, as well as the expected halving of production in the second half of next year, which is often fermented a year ago, thus making Bitcoin more risk-free than gold, United States debt, and countervailing investment advantages and prices.
上述从4月起不断加仓比特币的美国宏观经济型对冲基金经理向记者透露，最初他们之所以加仓比特币，主要是鉴于对冲美股高位回落风险的避险需要，但随着5月以来中美贸易摩擦升级，基金内部已经将比特币视为单独的一项避险型大类资产进行配置。
The above-mentioned manager of the United States macro-economic hedge fund, who has been upswinging bitcoin since April, revealed to journalists that, initially, they had increased bitcoin mainly in the light of the need to avoid high-level downside risks to hedge stocks in the United States, but that, with the escalation of Central-American trade since May, Bitcoin had been configured within the Fund as a separate, risk-free, broad-based asset.
“尽管我们的比特币配置占比不高，仅仅在3%左右，但目前这项避险投资收益不错，几乎创造了逾60%收益。”他透露。其实他的比特币配置比例偏保守，近日他听说部分对冲基金鉴于中美贸易摩擦升级，减持了逾15个百分点的美股与大宗商品等风险资产，将这些资金悉数配置到比特币身上。
“Despite our modest bitcoin allocation, which is only around 3%, this risk-free investment is now yielding a good return of almost 60%.” He reveals. Indeed, his bitcoin allocation is conservative, and in recent days he heard that part of the hedge fund has allocated more than 15 percentage points of its venture capital, such as US shares and bulk commodities, to Bitcoin, in view of the escalation of trade friction between Central America and the United States.
越来越多美国机构投资者开始加仓比特币作为避险资产配置首选，导致美国虚拟货币场外交易市场比特币的溢价率快速上涨，从而带动比特币价格持续突破6500、6800、7000美元等多个整数关口。
A growing number of United States institutional investors have begun to build up warehouse bitcoins as the preferred option for risk-free asset allocation, leading to a rapid increase in the premium for bitcoins in the United States virtual currency off-site market, thus driving Bitcoins prices to continue to break through multiple integer thresholds of $6,500, $6,800 and $7,000.
据富达投资最新调查显示，当前逾50%美国机构投资者认为数字资产可以在其投资组合中发挥作用，22％机构投资者已经拥有某种形式的数字货币。
According to a recent survey of Fuda investments, more than 50 per cent of United States institutional investors now believe that digital assets can play a role in their portfolios, and 22 per cent of institutional investors already have some form of digital currency.
这也令不少比特币投资者猜测，这波比特币上涨行情，主要是机构投资者增量避险投资资金入市所推动。
This has also led a number of Bitcoin investors to speculate that the growth of the Bobitco is driven mainly by increased investment capital from institutional investors to the market.
“但据我所知，多数机构投资者在加仓比特币作为避险资产同时，同样防范比特币价格高位回落风险，因此他们通过芝加哥商品期货交易所比特币期货，在7500-8000美元附近设立了大量空头进行套期保值，因为他们深知，随着比特币价格突破7000美元，此前积压的套牢盘解套离场的意愿就会增加，因此他们绝不愿为别人解套离场做嫁衣。”这位美国宏观经济型对冲基金经理指出。
“But, as far as I know, most institutional investors also guard against the risk of higher Bitcoin prices as a hedge asset, so they set up a lot of hedges around US$ 7,500-8000 through the Chicago Commodity Futures Exchange, because they knew that, as Bitcoins passed US$ 7,000, there would have been an increase in the pre-existing willingness to disassembly, so they would never be willing to marry someone else.” The US macro-economic hedge fund manager pointed out.
中国资本“冷眼旁观”探因
Chinese capital >
值得注意的是，在比特币这波快速上涨行情里，中国资本似乎并没起到推波助澜的作用。
It is worth noting that China's capital does not seem to have contributed to the rapid rise in Bitcoin.
“毕竟，多数中国比特币投资者的持仓成本较高，加之去年以来比特币价格持续下跌让市场抄底情绪变得格外低落，因此面对这波比特币上涨行情，多数中国投资者考虑更多的，是能否解套离场，而不是逢低抄底追涨。”一位国内虚拟加密货币投资机构负责人向记者分析说。这令5月初以人民币计价的比特币场外交易溢价率一度保持低位徘徊，直到5月13日比特币成功突破6800美元后才有所回升，但溢价率也差不多维持在2%-3%之间。
“After all, most Chinese investors in bitcoin have higher warehousing costs, and the continued decline in bitcoin prices since last year has made the market mood extremely low, so in the face of this bobitco up, most Chinese investors are considering whether they can get out of the field more than if they want to do so.” A head of a domestic virtual encrypted money investment agency analysed it to journalists. This led to a low margin in early May for currency-denominated out-of-the-field transactions, which did not recover until 13 May, when Bitco succeeded in breaking by $6,800, but the premium also remained roughly between 2 and 3 per cent.
在他看来，随着比特币一举突破7000美元，目前中国投资者的心态也出现分化，此前多数中国投资者一解套就打算离场，但如今一见比特币涨势如虹，加之中美贸易摩擦升级导致A股高位动荡缺乏新的赚钱效应，他们更倾向坐等比特币进一步上涨再获利离场。
In his view, with Bitcoin’s breakthrough of $7,000, China’s investor mentality was now polarized, with most Chinese investors planning to leave as soon as it was solved, but now seeing bitcoin rise like a rainbow, and the rise in trade friction between China and the United States led to a lack of new profit-making effects from A’s high volatility, which tended to wait for bitcoin to rise further before leaving.
“市场的贪念一下子又起来了。”这位负责人直言。近日比特币价格持续上涨，还意外带火了矿机生意。此前一些挖矿机因为比特币价格大跌而无人问津，但4月以来不少中国资本又开始采购矿机准备“挖矿”赚钱。
The price of bitcoin has been rising in recent days, and the mining business has been accidentally set on fire. Some excavators have been left unattended because of the price of bitcoin, but many Chinese capital has been buying mine machines to make money since April.
虚拟加密数字全球市场分析师Alex Krüger测算，当前高效比特币采矿业务的盈亏平衡成本约在3550美元，若比特币价格持续上涨，那么矿工的开采收益很可能会恢复到数年前的水准。
Alex Krü, a virtual encrypted digital global market analyst, estimates that the current cost of profit-and-loss balance for efficient bitcoin mining operations is approximately $3550, and that if the price of bitcoin continues to rise, miners are likely to recover to the same level as a few years ago.
记者多方了解到，这也驱动一些国内矿机生产商开发了“期货矿场”业务，即矿场运营商在矿场建好前与大量投资者签订协议，由后者先提供资金或设备作为搭建矿场的资金，再由前者经营开采“分享”采矿收益。
Journalists have learned that this has also driven a number of domestic producers of mining machines to develop a “prospector mine” operation, in which mine operators enter into agreements with a large number of investors before the site is constructed, with the latter first providing funds or equipment to finance the construction of the mine and then running the mining “sharing” of mining revenues.
“此前这种期货矿场模式同样无人问津，但近日比特币持续上涨，又让这种操作模式变得活跃。”一位国内矿机销售商向记者指出，其实这种期货矿场业务模式风险不低，若矿场运营商高估了水资源丰富时期（水力发电成本低）的采矿收益，进而大举募资扩充采矿产能，很可能出现实际收益远低于预期回报，甚至亏损的状况。
“This futures mining model, which had previously been equally unsettled, has been made more active by the recent rise in bitcoin.” A domestic miner pointed out to journalists that this futures mining business model is in fact risky, and that if mine operators overestimate mining revenues during periods of water abundance (low hydropower costs) and thus raise funds to expand mining capacity, it is likely that the real gains will fall far short of the expected returns, even at a loss.
“除非比特币价格持续超过8000美元，主流矿机制造商们不会大批量生产新款矿机，因此这些矿场运营商很可能遭遇实际开矿机器数量低于预期的状况，导致投资者实际回报被大幅摊薄。”他认为。但令他惊讶的是，尽管他一再提示投资风险，不少国内新投资者依然愿向期货矿场模式投入大量资金，打算趁着比特币持续上涨“做起短期发财的美梦”。
“Unless the price of Bitcoin continues to exceed $8,000, the manufacturers of mainstream mine machines will not produce new machines in large quantities, and it is therefore likely that these mine operators will experience a lower than expected number of actual mine-opening machines, resulting in a significant loss of real returns on the part of investors.” In his view, however, he was surprised that, despite his repeated indications of investment risks, many new domestic investors would be willing to invest heavily in futures mine models, with the intention of “dreaming short-term profits” while Bitcoin continued to rise.
（编辑：张星）
(eds. Zhang Xing)
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论