21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道
随着近期一系列经济数据好于预期，紧缩交易又起。
As a series of recent economic data were better than expected, austerity transactions resumed.
美国东部时间2月5日，美元指数一度跃升至104.60，创下去年11月14日以来最高，尾盘上涨0.36%至104.40，对利率敏感的两年期美债收益率也触及一个月高位。与此同时，美股三大股指全线走低，道琼斯工业指数下跌0.71%，标普500指数下跌0.32%，纳斯达克指数下跌0.20%。
On February 5, Eastern United States time, the dollar index jumped to 104.60, the highest since November 14, with an increase of 0.36% to 104.40% in the tailboard, and a one-month high in the interest-rate-sensitive biennium. At the same time, the three major shares in the United States fell across the line, with the Dow Jones industrial index down by 0.71%, the Puppe 500 index down by 0.32%, and the NASDAQ index down by 0.20%.
不过，紧缩交易能持续多久仍要打上问号。渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，美联储今年降息的概率仍然很大，预计美联储将在二季度降息25基点，并在下半年继续降息100基点。此外，需要警惕的是，如果紧缩过久造成美国经济恶化，衰退交易对市场的影响可能会更大。
The US Federal Reserve’s probability of reducing interest rates this year is still high, and the Fed is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points in the second quarter and by 100 basis points in the second half of the year. Moreover, it needs to be warned that if the US economy deteriorates as a result of prolonged austerity, the impact of recessions on the market may be even greater.
对于近期抛售格外严重的美债而言，未来收益率难有进一步大幅上升空间。国泰君安研究所资深市场分析师张新貌对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，短期内，在降息开启之前，受经济下行和降息预期波动影响，美债收益率和美股难有趋势性表现，预计仍将维持震荡态势。待美联储降息开启之后，美股上行、美债收益率下行的趋势性交易进一步延续，预计2024年下半年10年期美债收益率中枢在3.5%左右。
There is little room for a further sharp increase in future rates of return for the recent sale of a particularly serious US debt. According to NTI’s Senior Market Analyst Zhang, who analyses the 21st century economic reporter, the US debt rate and the US equity share are expected to remain volatile in the short term, subject to expected fluctuations in the downside and interest rate reduction before the start of interest reductions.
紧缩交易为何又起？
Why did the austerity deal start again?
在近期紧缩交易又起背后，一系列因素都在起作用。
Behind the recent tightening of transactions, a number of factors have been at work.
王昕杰对记者分析称，今年以来通胀和劳工数据超预期，紧缩交易是对去年11月以后市场过度定价宽松交易的一次正常修正，之前对于降息的预期过于激进了，现在市场回到正常轨迹。未来是否会延续紧缩预期要视美国经济而定，如果通胀和劳工数据继续超预期，市场可能还会延续紧缩交易。但如果通胀和劳工数据下降，市场的反转速度也将很快。
Wang Xiaojie analyses journalists that inflation and labour data have exceeded expectations since this year, that austerity transactions are a normal correction of excessive price liberalization in the market since November last year, and that expectations of interest reduction have been too radical before, and that markets are now back on track. Whether or not to continue austerity in the future will depend on the US economy, and that if inflation and labour data continue to outpace expectations, markets may also continue to trade austerity.
2月5日，最新PMI数据进一步提振了紧缩交易。由于新订单增加和就业反弹，美国1月服务业增长加快。美国供应管理协会（ISM）数据显示，1月非制造业PMI从去年12月的50.5升至53.4，高于分析师预测的52.0。此外，价格指数跳涨7.3个点至64，为去年2月以来的最高水平，并创下2012年来最大涨幅，由于红海危机导致航运公司改变线路，美国企业正在应对运输成本飙升的问题。
On 5 February, the latest PMI data further boosted austerity transactions. US services grew faster in January as new orders increased and jobs rebounded. The US Supply Management Association (SSM) data show that non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.4 in January from 50.5 in December last year, up from the analyst’s forecast of 52.0 per cent.
在ISM非制造业PMI超出预期后，2月5日各期限美债收益率普遍录得两位数基点涨幅，2年期美债收益率上涨11.7个基点至4.483%，5年期美债收益率上涨13.8个基点至4.123%，10年期美债收益率上涨13.7个基点至4.161%，30年期美债收益率上涨11.7个基点至4.339%。
After the ISM non-manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, the double-digit basis rate of return on United States debt generally increased on 5 February, rising by 11.7 to 4.483 per cent over the two-year period, 13.8 to 4.23 per cent over the five-year period, 13.7 to 4.161 per cent over the 10-year period and 11.7 to 4.339 per cent over the 30-year period.
在王昕杰看来，2023年年底和2024年年初市场交易逻辑差别明显。2023年11月开始，市场开始定价降息，几乎所有的资产类别都在上涨，除了和美债收益率呈正相关性的美元。但进入2024年，美联储会议纪要显示美联储并没有想象中的那样鸽派，在去年12月劳工数据、1月通胀数据以及1月劳工数据都超预期之后，市场开始重新定价降息预期，10年期美债收益率反弹，但美股特别是成长股并没有下跌，这体现出市场的乐观情绪。
In November 2023, the market began pricing lower interest rates, with almost all asset classes rising, with the exception of the US dollar, which has a positive correlation with the US debt rate of return. But in 2024, the Federal Reserve’s minutes showed that the Fed did not have the doves that it thought it would be. After last December’s labour data, the inflation data of January, and the labour data of January, the market began to re-pricing lower interest expectations, and the 10-year US debt rate rebounded, but the US stock, especially the growth stock, did not fall, reflecting the market’s optimism.
为什么会呈现出这样的交易状态？王昕杰认为，市场对于美联储降息早与晚的担忧开始下降，股票交易的根本逻辑回归到经济基本面，市场原先担忧紧缩政策会造成经济衰退，但目前经济衰退概率较低，虽然货币政策仍然紧缩，但是融资成本仍然可控，对实体经济的影响仍有限。降息时点可能更多影响的是短期市场表现，中长期还是要落实到经济基本面。
Wang Xiaojie argues that market concerns about the Fed’s early and late interest cuts have begun to decline, that the underlying logic of stock exchanges has returned to economic fundamentals, and that markets were initially worried that austerity policies would cause economic recessions, but that the current economic downturn is less likely. While monetary policy remains tight, financing costs remain manageable, and the impact on the real economy is limited. The likely impact of interest reduction times is on short- and long- and long-term economic fundamentals.
2月5日，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）上调了对全球GDP增速的预期，从去年11月预计的2.7%上升至2.9%，并将美国GDP增速预期从1.5%上调至2.1%。OECD还预测，美国2024年通胀率为2.2%，2025年通胀率将进一步放缓至2%，达到美联储的目标，这也是G7中最低的水平。
On 5 February, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised expectations of global GDP growth, rising to 2.9 per cent from the projected 2.7 per cent in November last year, and raised the projected GDP growth in the United States from 1.5 per cent to 2.1 per cent, with OECD also predicting that inflation in the United States would be 2.2 per cent in 2024 and would be further slowed to 2 per cent in 2025, the lowest level in G-7.
美联储有意推迟降息暂时支撑紧缩交易
The Fed's intent is to delay interest cuts to support the tight trade for the time being.
从美联储最青睐通胀指标看，通胀目标已经基本达成。美国2023年四季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值为2%，连续两个季度保持低增速，已符合美联储设定的2%通胀目标。
According to the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, inflation targets have been largely met. The United States’ annualized annualized rate of 2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023 was maintained at a low rate for two consecutive quarters, in line with the Fed’s target of 2 per cent inflation.
芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比也表示，只要通胀向2%目标回落的趋势持续，美联储就无需过度担心近期高于预期的经济增长和就业数据。
The Fed Chairman of Chicago, Gulsby, also stated that, as long as the trend of falling inflation to the 2 per cent target persisted, the Fed would not have to worry too much about recent higher-than-expected economic growth and employment data.
平安证券首席经济学家钟正生告诉21世纪经济报道记者，如果仅从通胀走势看，尤其是近六个月的通胀进展，美联储很可能已经接近达到降息条件。然而，美联储选择不过早降息、保持耐心，或是一种“定力博弈”。首先，美国经济韧性较强，赋予美联储不急于降息的底气，而且经济韧性仍有可能阻碍后续通胀回落进展。其次，自去年12月议息会议以来，降息预期发酵令金融条件已经转松，进一步减弱了3月开启降息的必要性。最后，美联储与市场预期的博弈仍在进行。如果美联储3月降息，那么市场很容易猜测美联储在之后的会议上会持续降息、全年大幅降息，美联储引导市场预期的难度会加大。
First, the US economy is more resilient, giving the Fed a cooler base, and economic resilience is likely to prevent subsequent inflation decline. Second, since last December’s summit meeting, the expectation of exchange rate cuts has eased financial conditions, further reducing the need to open interest rates in March.
此外，美联储可能正有意推迟降息，以隔离降息与缩表决策，防止市场对“流动性危机”的过度担忧，美联储保持定力也可以传递货币政策独立性的信号。美联储首次降息的选择将具有较强主观性，对于首次降息的条件，美联储用了非常模糊的表述：需要对通胀有“更大信心”。
Moreover, the Fed may be deliberately postponing interest-reductions in order to segregate interest-reduction and contraction decisions from excessive market concerns about the “liquidity crisis,” and keeping the Fed in a firm position could signal the independence of monetary policy. The Fed’s choice to cut interest for the first time would be more subjective, with the Fed using a rather vague formulation of the conditions for the first reduction: the need for “greater confidence” in inflation.
在张新貌看来，美国当前经济韧性依然较强，这是鲍威尔认为3月份降息可能性不大的主要原因，高利率没有导致经济明显下行，但对经济的压制已经有所体现。ADP就业、初请失业金人数等数据显示美国经济的“裂缝”，后续高利率的影响会进一步体现，美国经济和就业的下行或将持续，预计2024年二季度美国经济相对停滞，美联储降息周期或在2024年中左右到来，大概率从5月份开始，全年降息150基点左右。
According to a new look, the current economic resilience of the United States is still strong, which is the main reason Powell believes is unlikely to reduce interest rates in March, and high interest rates have not led to a clear downturn in the economy, but the repression of the economy has been reflected. Data such as ADP employment, the number of initial unemployment claims, etc., show a “breakdown” in the United States economy, and the impact of subsequent high interest rates will be further demonstrated by the fact that the United States economy and employment are expected to continue, with relative stagnation in the United States in the second quarter of 2024, the Fed’s interest rate reduction cycle or approaching around 2024, with a rate of about 150 basis points for the year beginning in May.
展望未来，张新貌告诉记者，美联储货币政策仍将依赖数据，去通胀进程需要等待服务通胀进一步下行来验证，虽然3月降息的概率较低，但3月是何时降息和缩表放缓的重要观察窗口。
Looking ahead, a new picture tells journalists that the Fed's monetary policy will continue to rely on data, that the process of inflation will need to await further downs in service inflation, and that, while the probability of interest cuts in March is low, March is an important observation window for when interest rates will fall and the contraction will slow.
紧缩交易或难长期持续
Austerity transactions or long-term difficulties
在通胀和经济前景等重重不确定性因素影响下，未来美国股债汇市场仍将出现反复，但可以确认的是，紧缩交易难成常态。
The future United States stock-stock markets will continue to be subject to recurring uncertainties, such as inflation and economic prospects, but it can be confirmed that austerity transactions are not normal.
在近期紧缩交易又起背后，美联储降息路径仍悬念重重。钟正生认为，对市场而言，美联储年内降息的方向仍然明确，近期博弈点仍在首次降息节点与全年降息幅度。当前市场降息预期仍有些“抢跑”，尤其是对于全年降息幅度的判断。后续预期修正方向或是：美联储全年降息由5-6次减少至3次左右。
The Fed’s path to interest-reduction is still staggered, behind the recent tightening of transactions. Jong-sung believes that the direction of the Fed’s interest-reductions during the year remains clear for the market, with the first interest-reduction node in the recent game point and year-round interest-reduction rates still expected to be “run-off” – especially in terms of interest-reductions throughout the year. The next revision is that the Fed’s interest-reductions during the year will be reduced from five to six times to about three times.
在这样的背景下，钟正生认为，市场“宽松交易”可能经历一定反复，但也不至于持续上演“紧缩交易”。若后续降息预期修正，预计10年期美债收益率在4%左右震荡；美元指数保持相对稳定，但也取决于非美经济和政策变化，尤其关注日本央行会否进一步释放退出负利率的信号；美股估值环境相对稳定，但4%左右的10年期美债收益率意味着标普500指数风险溢价接近0，美股整体表现将更受盈利驱动。
Against this background, Chung is of the view that market “combating transactions” may have been subject to a certain amount of repetition, but not to a sustained “austerity” trade. If the subsequent reduction in interest rates is expected to be revised, the US-debt rate of return is expected to fluctuate at around 4 per cent over a 10-year period; the US dollar index remains relatively stable, but it also depends on changes in non-US economies and policies, with particular attention to whether the central bank of Japan will further release signs of withdrawal of negative interest rates; the US-valued environment is relatively stable, but the US-debt rate of return for about 4 per cent over a 10-year period means that the RPP 500 index risk premium will be close to zero, and the US-owned overall performance will be more profit-driven.
对于近期格外强势的美元，王昕杰认为，美元短期走势很大程度上取决于美国经济韧性的持续性。美国经济在上半年将避免陷入“硬着陆”，在美国经济韧性仍然较足的背景下，3个月内美元将维持震荡。
For the most powerful dollar in the recent past, Wang Xiaojie argues that the short-term movement of the dollar will depend largely on the sustainability of America’s economic resilience. The US economy will avoid a “hard landing” in the first half of the year, and the dollar will remain in shock for three months, given that the US economy is still more resilient.
长期来看，美国经济在紧缩政策冲击下预计将温和下滑，与其他主要国家的利率差也将有所缩减，从6-12个月维度来看，在降息口径确立的背景下，美元指数可能进一步下滑来反映美国和其他主要国家利差缩减的预期，日元、欧元和澳元将受惠于美元的下跌。
In the long run, the United States economy is expected to decline mildly in the face of austerity and interest rate differentials with other major countries will be reduced, with the dollar index likely to fall further in the context of interest-reduction calibres established over a 6-12 month period to reflect expectations of a shrinking spread between the United States and other major countries, with the Japanese yen, the euro and the Australian dollar benefiting from the decline in the dollar.
投资策略方面，今年或可关注债券机会。虽然近期美国债市大跌，10年期美债收益率重新回到4%以上，但王昕杰表示，此时将股票仓位平衡一部分到债券是非常合适的入场点，特别是高评级政府债券。除了吸引人的到期收益率以外，未来的降息趋势不会改变，不管是暂停加息还是降息之后，债券的回报和胜率颇为可观。
Despite the recent collapse of the US debt market and the return of 10 years of US debt to more than 4%, Wang Xiaojie said that it would be appropriate to balance a portion of stock positions with bonds at this time, especially high-rated government bonds. With the exception of attractive maturities, the future trend of interest cuts will not change, whether by suspending interest increases or by cutting interest rates, with significant returns and odds on bonds.
（编辑：李莹亮）
(Edit: LEE Gwang)
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