比特币飙升至73679美元！比特币大牛：比特币价格不太可能再跌破5万美元，这是新底部「附加密货币市场现状分析」

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Photo source: Photonet

近日，比特币价格受“比特币现货ETF交易上市”、4月即将到来的“比特币‘减半’事件”影响，在3月8日，比特币价格突破70000美元，创下最新历史新高后，连连再突破新高。3月13日，比特币在交易中一度上涨2.2%，飙升至73679美元，相比去年末不足43000美元的价格，整体涨幅逾70%，也刷新了2021年11月创下的69000美元的纪录。

In recent days, the price of bitcoin has been affected by “the listing of spot ETF transactions in bitcoin”, the upcoming April “bitcoin’s halving” event , an overall increase of more than 70 per cent over the price of less than $43,000 at the end of last year, and a new record of $69,000 in November 2021.

不过，在价格不断飙升的背后，比特币或正在酝酿风险。有市场人士指出，首先值得注意的便是波动风险。还有比特币交易过程中可能存在的犯罪风险，以及相应的监管收紧影响。这些因素都使得比特币投资存在不确定性。

However, behind rising prices, bitcoin is either developing risk. Some marketers at point out that the first thing to note is the risk of volatility.

回看加密货币市场情况：

Looking back at the crypto-currency market:

——私人数字货币分类

- Private digit currency classification

根据赋值方式的不同，私人数字货币可以划分为两类：一是基于区块链的原生代币，指依赖于区块链系统并在该系统内产生和使用的数字货币，又称加密数字货币;二是在区块链上发行运营，但以链外资产支持的数字货币，又称稳定币。

Depending on the method of attribution, private digital currencies can be divided into two categories: primary intergenerational currencies based on the block chain, which refers to digital currencies that depend on and are generated and used in the block chain system, or encrypted digital currencies; and digital currencies that are issued and operated on the block chain, supported by assets outside the chain, or stable currencies.

——全球加密货币数量

- Number of encrypted currencies worldwide

目前，全球范围各类加密货币和电子货币的出现，大量加密货币均为非金融机构创立，在区块链上发行与交易、具备独立交易价格。依据Finbold数据显示，2020年，全球加密货币数量仅为8000+个规模，到2021年，直接突破16000个，同比增长98.98%。

At present, a large number of encrypted currencies are being created by non-financial institutions, issued and traded on block chains, with independent transaction prices. According to Finbold data, the number of encrypted currencies worldwide was only 8,000 + sizes in 2020, and by 2021 it was over 16,000, an increase of 98.98 per cent.

——比特币产生原理

- Bitcoin Generation

比特币是一种总量恒定2100万的数字货币，其和互联网一样具有去中心化、全球化、匿名性等特性。比特币的运行离不开两个核心概念：节点以及去中心化账簿。每一台装有比特币客户端的电脑称为一个节点，每一个节点都是平等的，不存在一个中心节点。无数这样的电脑相互连接形成的网络则是一种去中心化账簿。

Bitcoin is a total constant digital currency of 21 million, which, like the Internet, is decentralized, globalized, anonymous, and so on. Bitcoin operates in two core concepts: nodes and decentralized books. Each computer with a Bitcoin client is called a node, and each node is equal, and there is no central node. Numerous of these computers are connected to one another, and the network is a decentralized book.

——美国成为全球比特币挖矿的第一胜地

- The United States became the world's first home for bitcoin mining

剑桥大学公布的最新研究表明，美国首次取代中国，成为全球比特币挖矿的第一胜地，占有超1/3(35.4%)的算力资源。对比去年9月份，美国输出的比特币算力居然暴增了428%。其次为哈萨克斯坦，占比18.10%;第三为俄罗斯，占比11.23%;加拿大居前列，占比9.55%。

The most recent study published by Cambridge University shows that the United States first replaced China as the world’s first home for bitcoin mining, with over 1/3 (35.4%) of the arithmetic resources. Compared to last September, America’s output of bitcoins rose by 428%, followed by Kazakhstan, with 18.10%; Russia, with 11.23%; and Canada, with 9.55%.

加密货币亿万富翁迈克·诺沃格拉茨表示，最近比特币的上涨是由投资者广泛采用加密货币而不是宏观经济因素推动的，因此比特币价格不太可能再次跌破5万美元。我认为这是新的底部，除非发生什么戏剧性的事情。

According to Mike Novograds, the recent increase in Bitcoin was driven by the widespread use of crypto-currency rather than macroeconomic considerations by investors, so that bitcoin prices are unlikely to fall down by $50,000 again. I think it's a new bottom, unless something dramatic happens.

比特币是否还有进一步上行空间？未来如何走？中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席、香港区块链协会荣誉主席于佳宁指出，以比特币为首的数字资产可以被认为是一种“未来资产”，其价值能够有效穿越经济周期。而数字资产可以理解为数字经济发展的一面镜子，就如同股市反映实体产业的关系一样，数字资产价值重估反映数字经济的发展和繁荣。但作为一种高波动性的资产，比特币的价格短期内可能会经历剧烈波动，这在很大程度上取决于市场情绪、宏观经济环境、监管政策等因素。

Is there any room for further upswinging in bitcoin? The Co-Chair of the District Chain Committee of the China Communications Industry Association and the Honorary President of the Hong Kong Block Chain Association, Janin, pointed out that digital assets led by bitcoin could be considered a “future asset” , Bitcoin prices may experience sharp fluctuations in the short term, depending on factors such as market sentiment, macroeconomic environment, and regulatory policies.

注：本文仅作内容传播，不构成任何投资建议。

Note: This paper is for content dissemination only and does not constitute any investment proposal.

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