在上周五美国的非农就业数据公布远超预期后，比特币即从近7.2万美元，下杀至一度插针68,400美元，期间最大跌幅超5%。此后比特币价格于6.93万美元附近持续震荡，然而在昨日11点至今日凌晨2点期间一度上涨至7万美元，但未能持续突破。截稿前，比特币价格回落至69,400美元，近24小时内微跌0.02%。
After the release of non-agricultural employment data in the United States last Friday, Bitcoin was killed from nearly $72,000 to a single needle of $68,400, with a maximum drop of over 5 per cent. After that, bitcoin prices continued to vibrate near $693,000, but rose to $70,000 between 11 a.m. yesterday and 2 a.m. yesterday, but failed to make a lasting breakthrough. Prior to the transcription, Bitcoins prices fell to $69,400, a slight decline of 0.02 per cent in almost 24 hours.
比特币价格走势图
Bitcoin price trends
STH已实现价格近6.4万美元
比特币的横盘震荡，似乎有一股“支撑”力量在发挥作用。观察链上筹码，短期持有者(STH)的已实现价格(Realized Price，RP)持续在上涨，目前STH Realized Price已经上升至接近64,000美元，过去一周上涨1.5%，显示短期投机活动增加。
Bitcoin’s transect seems to have an & ldquo; support & & rdquo; power is working. On the observation chain, the price of the short-term holder (STH) has continued to rise, and STH Realized Price has now risen to nearly $64,000, up 1.5 per cent over the past week, indicating an increase in short-term speculation.
STH Realized Price是短期持有者(持币时间短于155天的用户，截稿前往回推155天，刚好约是1月份美国比特币现货ETF获得批准前后)在链上平均换手的成本线，是分析目前筹码主要支撑的指标。因此，只要比特币在未来几个月内保持在64,000美元以上，比特币价格的长期前景将保持看涨，因为该价格是重要的支撑。
STH Realized Price, a short-term holder (a user with a currency of less than 155 days, with a deadline of 155 days, just before and after January’s approval of the US’s spot ETF), is an average cost line for changing hands on the chain and an indicator of the main support of the current chips. Thus, as long as Bitcoin remains above $64,000 in the coming months, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin prices will remain high, as it is an important support.
链上数据分析师Murphy近日也发文指出：“从以往的数据来看，只要没有出现黑天鹅事件，牛市进程中BTC的价格很难大幅低于STH-RP，接近或略低于这个位置就会引发大量的需求。因此，STH-RP是较强的支撑。”
And Murphy, a data analyst on the chain, recently wrote: &ldquao; based on past data, BTC prices in the cattle market process are very difficult to achieve significantly below the STH-RP, which is close to or slightly below this location, and therefore strongly supported by STH-RP; & & rdquao;
比特币的长短期持有者已实现价格
Prices realized by short- and long-term Bitcoin holders
筹码从6万-6.4万镁大量换手到6.6万-6.8万美元
Murphy进一步以URPD数据指出，近20天来链上结构的主要变化是60,000-64,000美元区间的筹码被大量换手到了66,000-68,000美元区间，并形成了近155万枚BTC的堆积。这就在STH-RP之上，又形成了一个较为厚实的“护城河”。 Murphy further notes with URPD data that the main change in the structure of the chain over the last 20 days is that the leverage between the $60,000-64,000 area was transferred to the $66,000-68,000 area and that it formed a pile of nearly 1.55 million BTCs. This, on the STH-RP, created a thicker & ldquao; the moat & rdquao; Murphy总结道：“我认为以当前的数据看，如没有出现在突发性外在事件严重打击情绪的前提下，这个下限(应是指STH-RP)将不容易被打破”。 Murphy concludes: & ldquao; I think, with current data, that this threshold (which should refer to STH-RP) will not be easy to break & rdquao if it does not appear unexpectedly outside of events that severely upset emotions. 注解： Notes: URPD全名为UTXO Realized Price Distribution，即UTXO的已实现价格分布，它能清楚的反映流通中的BTC在最后一次移动时对应的价格区间。简单的说，就是BTC链上筹码价格分布。 The full name of the URPD is UTXO Realized Price Distribution, the realized price distribution of UTXO, which clearly reflects the price range that the BTC in circulation corresponds to when it last moves. Simply put, the leverage price distribution on the BTC chain. 是分析目前筹码主要成本、支撑或压力位，从而判断当前市场的情绪的有利指标，有兴趣的读者可以详看这里的介绍。 An analysis of the main cost, support or pressure position of the current chips, which is a favourable indicator of the mood in the current market, can be viewed in greater detail by interested readers. 比特币6/7URPD Bitcoin6/7URPD
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