现在熊市惨淡，经常有人会问：下个牛市何时会来？而最常见的一种回答是：2020年再说吧。如果你惊讶并追问时间为何如此明确时，大概率会得到一个这样的答案：因为比特币“四年减半”呀。
Now that the bear city is bleak, someone often asks: When will the next cow come? And the most common answer is: 2020. If you are surprised and ask why the time is so clear, probably the answer will be one: because of Bitcoin&ldquao; four years by half & rdquao; yeah.
01
什么是“四年减半”？
比特币作为虚拟数字货币的开创者，大约每10分钟会“长”出一定数量的新比特币，直到总数达到2100万个。
Bitcoin, as the founder of virtual digital money, is about every 10 minutes & ldquao; long & rdquao; and a certain amount of new bitcoins until the total is 21 million.
那么每次“长”出来的数量是多少呢？中本聪在设计比特币产量协议时，遵循了以下两个规则：
So, each time 1、最开始每10分钟生成50个比特币（每次10分钟的间隔由算法来保证稳定不变）； 1. 50 Bitcoins per 10 minutes (a 10-minute interval is maintained by algorithm); 根据以上规则，我们只需列出算式，便能得出每次减半（21万次）需要的时间： On the basis of the above rules, we need only list formulas to arrive at the time needed to halve each time (210,000): 210000÷(365*24*6) 注：因为每10分钟产出一次，所以每年的次数是365*24*6 Note: The number of times per year is 365*24*6 as output is produced every 10 minutes 答案正是4（年），这便是“四年减半”之说的由来。 The answer to is exactly 4 (year) 根据减半规则，每4年的总产量也会减半，这一衰减非常快速。事实上比特币诞生十年以来，已经产出了1700余万个比特币，达到了总量2100万的83%。 According to the rule of halving total production by half every four years, this decline is fast. In fact, 10 years after Bitcoin was born, more than 17 million bitcoins have been produced, amounting to 83 per cent of a total of 21 million. 02 根本原因是出于供需关系的考虑。试想一种极端情况：如果在短时间内不加限制地产出了大量比特币，那比特币必然会因为流通量过多而变得毫无价值。 The root cause is supply and demand. Imagine an extreme situation: if “V神”在评论比特币产量机制的文章中是这样表述的： & ldquo; V God & rdquo; in an article commenting on the Bitcoin Production Mechanism, this is stated: 比特币之所以如此设计，正是为了控制通货膨胀……你也可以将这一规则和黄金进行对比，黄金在地球上总量固定，现在的开采难度越来越大，也正因为这些原因，黄金能流通于世数千年，至今仍然价值稳定，成为国际认可的价值交换媒介。希望比特币也可以。 Bitcoin was designed precisely to control inflation and inflation; and & Hellip; and you can compare this rule with gold, whose size is fixed on Earth, and whose exploitation is becoming increasingly difficult, because of the thousands of years in which it has been circulating, it is still worth stabilizing and becoming an internationally recognized value-exchange medium. 近百年以来黄金价格走势 03 已经有无数人试图论证过两者之间的关系，本文开头所说的“减半可能会带来价格上涨”也是其中的一种观点。实际情况如何呢？不妨回顾下历史上2次减半时的情况。 There have been numerous attempts to argue the relationship between the two, and the & & & & & & & & & & & & & at the beginning of this paper, which could lead to higher prices & & & & & & &, is one of them. What is the reality? 图:2012/11/28第一次减半（UTC时间） 2012年比特币产量首次减半，由原来的每次50个比特币减为25个比特币，图中可以看出减半时间点一周前后价格波动并不明显。 In 2012, for the first time, the production of bitcoins was halved from the original 50 bitcoins to 25 bitcoins, and the figure shows that price fluctuations were not apparent before or after the cut-off point. 图:2016/7/9第二次减半（UTC时间） 2016年年中，比特币产量再次减半，由每次25个比特币减为12.5个比特币，减半一周前比特币价格是650美元，一周后价格是675美元，减半时间点前后BTC的价格也没有发生特别的变化。 By mid-2016, Bitcoin production was again halved from 25 bitcoins to 12.5 bitcoins at a price of $650 a week before the halving, $675 a week later, and BTC prices did not change in any particular way before or after the halving point of . 也有人坚持比特币价格和减半强相关，认为价格会上涨，并且上涨会发生在减半前的3个月到1年期间，按这一结论来观察2016年减半的情况，会发现的确如此。但如果你放宽视野，还会看到在2016年减半前也发生了很多重大事件，比如监管、重量级媒体的关注、资本机构的参与等等，这些也都可能是价格变化的重要原因。 There are also those who insist on a strong correlation between bitcoin prices and halving, arguing that prices will rise, and that they will occur in the three-month to one-year period before halving, a conclusion that can be observed in observing a reduction in 2016. But if you open your eyes, there will also be a number of major events ahead of halving 2016, such as regulation, weight media attention, and the involvement of capital agencies, all of which may also be important reasons for price change. 因此，我们并不能断言比特币减半和价格走势间会存在某种必然的联系。 So we can't argue that there's a certain link between the halving of bitcoin and price trends. 04 比特币四年减半是它产量规则设计的计算结果。相比四年减半和比特币价格变化之间的关系，或许你可以更多关注比特币为何如此设计？为什么总量固定，又通过产量减半来持续降低它的新增供给，以避免比特币被很快挖完呢？ The four-year reduction of Bitcoin is the result of its production rule design . Perhaps you could focus more on the relationship between the four-year reduction of Bitcoin and the price changes in bitcoin. Why is Bitcoin so designed? 也许你的答案和我们一样：比特币四年减半的设计是为了能赋予比特币更多价值。 Perhaps your answer is the same as ours: bitcoin was designed to give bitcoin more value by half in four years.
2、每21万次后，比特币的单次产量减半，从50、25、12.5……依此类推，直至总量达到2100万。
2 and 210,000 times, the single production of Bitcoins is halved from 50, 25, 12.5 & Hellip; & Hellip; and so on until the total is 21 million.
为什么要设计四年减半的规则？
减半和比特币的价格有什么关系？
小结
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