计算机行业研究：比特币价及全网算力温和上涨，以太坊ETF S-1表格提交修订

　　根据CoinMarketCap统计，至2024年5月31日，全球加密货币总市值达2.51万亿美元，较上周末下降；其中比特币市值占比53.11%、以太坊市值占比17.74%。比特币价格为6.75万美元/枚，7日涨跌幅为-1.51%；以太坊价格为0.376万美元/枚，7日价格涨跌幅为0.89%。至2024年5月31日，短期投资人持仓成本为6.26万美元/枚比特币，长期投资人持仓成本为2.14万美元/枚比特币，当前币价在长短期投资人持仓成本之上。

According to CoinMarketCap, by 31 May 2024, the total global market value of encrypted currencies was $2.51 trillion, down from the previous weekend; the market value of Bitcoin was 53.11 per cent, and that of Tai Pa was 17.74 per cent. The price of Bitcoin was $675 million/me, with an increase of -1.51 per cent on 7 days; the price of Taiku was 0.376 million/me, and the price of 7 days was 0.89 per cent. By 31 May 2024, the cost of short-term investors was $6.26 million/bit, while the cost of long-term investors was $2.14 million/bit, and the current price was above the cost of short-term investors.

　　交易层面，根据CoinMarketCap统计，年初至今，加密货币总成交额为13.15万亿美元，同比增长87.9%。根据CoinCarp统计，2024年5月25日至5月31日，Coinbase总成交额为142.97亿美元，环比上周减少30.6%。年初至5月31日，Coinbase总成交额为4,636.94亿美元，同比增长128.4%。根据Coinglass统计，至2024年5月31日，BTC合约持仓量达691.41亿美元，较上周末有所上升。

At the transaction level, according to CoinMarketCap, the total volume of encrypted currency transactions at the beginning of the year to date was $13.15 trillion, an increase of 87.9 per cent over the same period. According to CoinCarp, the total value of Coinbase transactions was $14.297 billion from 25 May to 31 May 2024, a decrease of 30.6 per cent in the ring from last week to 31 May, and Coinbase totaled $463.6994 billion, an increase of 128.4 per cent over the previous weekend. According to Coinglass, BTC contracts stood at $69.141 billion by 31 May 2024, an increase over the previous weekend.

　　外部流动性方面，2024年4月，中美日欧央行M2同比下降0.7%，增速环比下降0.17pct，外部流动性未见明显释放。根据wind数据，至2024年5月31日，美元指数为104.69，较上周末下降；10年期美债收益率为4.71%，较上周末上涨。稳定币方面，根据CoinMarketCap统计，至2024年5月31日，USDT+USDC+DAI稳定币市值达1,495.62亿美元，较上周末下降。

With regard to external liquidity, in April 2024, the Central-American and European Central Bank of Europe and the United States recorded a 0.7 per cent decline in M2 and a 0.17 per cent decline in the acceleration ring ratio, with no visible release of external liquidity. According to Wind, by 31 May 2024, the dollar index was 104.69, down from the previous weekend; the return on US debt in 10 years was 4.71 per cent, up from the previous weekend. In terms of currency stability, according to Coinmark Cap, the market value of the USDT+USDC+DAI stable currency was $1,495.2 billion by 31 May 2024, down from the previous weekend.

　　至2024年5月31日，美国比特币现货ETF共计净流入136亿美元，与上周持平。5月25日至5月31日，现货比特币ETF流入占比特币总成交额的0.3%，较上周有所下降。

By 31 May 2024, the United States dollar’s spot ETF inflows totalled $13.6 billion, the same amount as last week. From 25 May to 31 May, the current account for 0.3 per cent of the total Bitcoin inflows, down from last week.

　　挖矿成本方面，根据OKLink统计，本年5月25日至5月31日，BTC全网平均算力为632.97EH/s，较上周环比增加5.51%；BTC挖矿难度平均值为84.38，较上周有所上涨。根据Glassnode统计，至2024年5月31日，矿工钱包余额为180.4万枚比特币，与上周末相比上涨，当前矿工钱包持币余额接近2021年牛市水平。

In terms of mining costs, from 25 May to 31 May of this year, according to OKLink, BTC's total net capacity averaged 632.97 EH/s, an increase of 5.51 per cent over last week's ring ratio; BTC's average difficulty in mining was 84.38, an increase over the previous week. According to Glasnode, by 31 May 2024, miners had a wallet balance of 1.804 million bits, an increase from the previous weekend, and the current miner's wallet balance was close to the 2021 cattle market level.

　　本周，Mt.Gox已将14.1万枚比特币转移至另一个钱包，为10月31日偿还债权人做好准备，目前不会立刻出售比特币。比特币长期持有者自2023年12月以来首次进入加仓模式。IBIT目前持有的比特币的数量已经超过了GBTC，仅花费137天便达到200亿美元规模，成为历史上最短时间内规模超过200亿美元的ETF。贝莱德目前已提交修订后的以太坊ETF S-1注册声明，预计将于6月底或7月初开始交易。2024年，预计全球数字货币用户将达到5.6亿人，占全球总人口的6.8%；其中亚洲预计持币人数达3.27亿，美国41%的选民支持比特币。

This week, Mt. Gox has transferred 141,000 bitcoins to another wallet to prepare for repayment of creditors on 31 October and will not sell bitcoins immediately. Bitcoins long-term holders have entered the gallows model for the first time since December 2023. The number of bitcoins currently held by IBIT exceeds GBTC by $20 billion in 137 days, making it the ETF of more than $20 billion in the shortest time in history. Belaid has now submitted a revised ETF S-1 registration statement in the Pacific, which is expected to start trading at the end of June or early July. In 2024, it is expected that the number of users of digital currencies worldwide will reach 560 million, or 6.8 per cent of the global population; Asia is expected to have 327 million and the United States has 41 per cent of voters supporting Bitcoins.

　　投资建议

Investment proposals

　　目前比特币处于第四轮周期之中，我们判断仍为本轮行情前期，持续推荐Coinbase，建议关注MicroStrategy。我们判断仍为本轮行情前期，2024年5月比特币价上涨11%，减半后首月行情平稳，维持中长期看好。

Now that Bitcoin is in the fourth cycle, we judge that Coinbase is still in the lead-up to the round, suggesting that attention be paid to MicroStrategy. We judge that it is still in the lead-up to the round, with a 11 per cent increase in the price of Bitcoin in May 2024, and a smooth first month after half, with medium- and long-term prospects.

　　风险提示

Risk hints

　　加密货币行业合规风险；美国联邦基金利率剧烈波动风险；网络安全风险。

Compliance risk in the crypto-currency industry; risk of high fluctuations in United States federal fund interest rates; and risk of cybersecurity.