对于此次暴跌,市场分析认为,虽然有美国科技股大跌助力,主因还是比特币在过去30天内大涨超过1000美元,不少人决定获利了结。
In response to this crash, market analysis suggests that despite the huge fall in the US share of technology, the main reason is that Bitcoin has risen by more than $1,000 over the last 30 days, and that a lot of people have decided to make a profit.
6月11日,比特币价格首破3000美元大关;火币网显示,同一天比特币收盘首次站上20602元。而昨天戏剧性的变化出现,比特币猛烈大跌14.5%,至2526.4美元,创下2015年1月以来最大跌幅。
On June 11, the price of Bitcoin broke down at the top of the $3,000 threshold; on the same day, the gunnet showed that Bitcoin was on the ground for the first time at $20602. And yesterday, dramatic changes occurred, with Bitcoin falling sharply by 14.5 per cent, to $2526.4, the largest since January 2015.
比特币兑美元似乎进入一轮震荡周期。
最新:比特币连创新高后现大跌
Update: Bitcoin's up and down
近半个月以来,比特币价格屡创新高,暴涨近60%,成为今年以来资本市场的一朵奇葩。今年以来其涨幅甚至超过了300%。上周日,比特币/美元价格再次创造历史新高,首次突破3000美元,达到3012.05美元。而昨天比特币一度大跌14.5%,跌至2526.4美元,创下2015年1月以来的最大跌幅。截至北京青年报记者发稿时,火币网显示,每个比特币的价格在20000元人民币下方震荡。
For almost half a month now, Bitcoin prices have been innovatively high, rising by nearly 60%, and have become a wonder of the capital market since this year. It has even increased by more than 300% since this year. Last week, Bitcoins/dollars prices again created a historic high, breaking 3,000 dollars for the first time, to $3012.05. Bitcoins fell by 14.5% yesterday, to $2526.4, the largest decline since January 2015. As young Beijing reporters published, the Arsenal Network showed that the price of each bitcoins was collapsing below 20,000 yuan.
对于此次暴跌,市场分析认为,虽然有美国科技股大跌助力,主因还是比特币在过去30天内大涨超过1000 美元,不少人决定获利了结。比特币价格重挫之际,币行网12 日有数百万美元的多头部位被人平仓。由于交易量过大,Coinbase 等一部分比特币交易所不堪负荷,12 日一度中断服务。另一家交易所“BTC-e”则声称受到分散式阻断服务攻击,网站一度瘫痪,一小时左右后恢复。
In response to this collapse, market analysis suggests that despite the huge fall in the US share in science and technology, Bitcoin had risen by more than $1,000 over the last 30 days, and that a number of people had decided to pay for it. As Bitcoin prices regressed, several millions of dollars of headlines had been levelled off on the currency’s 12th day. Part of the Bitcoin exchange, such as Coinbase, was overstretched, 12 days out of service. Another exchange, BTC-e, claimed that it had suffered a fragmented service disruption, and the website had been paralysed for a time, recovering about an hour or so after.
追访:暴涨主因是主流资金介入市场
Visit: The main cause of the surge was mainstream financial involvement in the market
市场主流观点认为,此次推动比特币离奇大涨的幕后推手主要是日本渡边太太与韩国散户投资者。据了解,当前日韩两国比特币交易量占据全球交易量的50%-60%,足以左右全球比特币价格走势。有媒体报道称,不少日本渡边太太纷纷采取杠杆投资方式买涨比特币,即采取50-100倍杠杆投资比特币,不过基本当天结清交易,不会持币过夜,导致日本出现比特币量价持续大涨。在日本比特币投资热驱动下,不少韩国投资者押注比特币价格上涨,以填补退休金收益不足的缺口。
According to the mainstream view of the market , the driving force behind this dramatic increase in Bitcoin was mainly the Japanese Mrs. Watanabe and South Korean diaspora investors. It is understood that Japan and Korea currently account for 50-60% of the world’s transactions in bitcoin, which is enough to influence the price of bitcoins worldwide. According to media reports, many Japanese Watanabe wives are using leverage to buy bitcoins, i.e. 50-100 times the leverage to invest in bitcoins, but basically closing the deal on the same day without spending the currency overnight, leading to a significant increase in bitcoins in Japan.
对于比特币持续暴涨的原因,黄金钱包首席研究员肖磊表示,首先,目前数字货币因全球区块链技术的发展和应用得到了诸多投资者关注,一些主流投资市场的资金开始介入这一领域。其次,近期以来国内主要交易平台开始提币,而之前收到央行监管要求暂停了提币,开始提币之后国内需求活跃。此外,中国股市的疲弱也导致一些资金流入到比特币市场,中国市场开始活跃对全球市场都有一定的预期刺激。
In response to the continuing surge in bitcoin, the chief researcher Shaw of the Golden Wallet said, first of all, that digital money is now receiving a lot of attention from investors as a result of the development and application of global block-chain technology, and that some mainstream investment market funds have begun to intervene in this area. Second, the main domestic trading platforms have started to raise their currency in recent times, before receiving central bank regulations calling for the suspension of their bills, and domestic demand has been active since they began to do so. Moreover, China’s stock market weakness has also led to some capital inflows into bitcoin, and the Chinese market is beginning to become active with some expected stimulus to the global market.
趋势:短线有可能暴涨暴跌
Trends: Short lines are likely to burst and fall
对于这种极为罕见的暴涨行情,多数分析师提醒投资者需要谨慎投资。
Most analysts remind investors of the need for prudent investment in this very rare surge.
中国区块链应用研究中心理事长邓迪表示,由于比特币的虚拟性,没有任何权威机构做“后台”,它的价格主要源自人们对它的预期。邓迪称,比特币本身依靠挖矿来发行,它背后没有真实的资产来背书,所以它的价格是由人们对它的预期来决定的。在这种情况下,比特币价格波动会非常大。
According to Dundee, Chairman of the Chinese Centre for the Applied Studies of the Block Chain, because of the virtuality of Bitcoin, there is no “backstage” of any authority, and its price stems mainly from expectations. Dundee claims that Bitcoin itself relies on mining and that there are no real assets behind it, so its price is determined by expectations. In this case, Bitcoin price volatility is very high.
OKCoin币行分析师提醒投资者,4小时以下的相对短周期走势出现了比较明显的上涨力度不足现象,短线交易者应该提高风险意识,不宜重仓参与。
OkCoin Currency Analyst reminds investors that the relative short-cycle movement of less than four hours is less pronounced, and short-line traders should be more risk-aware and less likely to be involved.
肖磊表示,国内市场很多是在做量化交易,很容易带来大涨大跌的情况。目前比特币价格最大的不确定性是央行的监管政策,因为国内的监管逻辑非常简单,不能让这个市场过热,一旦过热就会采取一定措施,如果未来政策面出现降温措施,价格大幅回落的概率较大。他也指出,从长期看,比特币价格受到全球市场影响,中国很难有定价能力,上一波涨势主要是日本和韩国推动,因此如果有更多国家的民众参与到这个市场,比特币价格可能暂时还跌不下来。
According to Shaw, many of the domestic markets are quantitatively traded, which can easily lead to a sharp ups and downs. The biggest uncertainty about Bitcoin prices today is the central bank’s regulatory policy, because the domestic regulatory logic is so simple that it cannot overheat the market, and once it is overheated, measures will be taken, with a greater probability of a sharp fall in prices if future policies are tempered. He also pointed out that, in the long run, bitcoin prices are affected by global markets, and that it is difficult for China to have a price-fixing capacity, and that the first wave was driven mainly by Japan and South Korea, so that the price of bitcoins could not fall temporarily if more countries were to participate in the market.
央行此前披露,央行关于比特币的两个管理办法正在推进中:一是关于比特币交易平台的管理办法,二是关于比特币平台反洗钱的规范。据了解,该管理办法将于近日出台。
The Central Bank has previously disclosed that the central bank's two regulatory approaches to Bitcoin are moving forward: one on the Bitcoin trading platform and the other on anti-money-laundering regulations for the Bitcoin platform. It is understood that the regulatory approach will be available in the near future.
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