撰文：Paul D. Ryan，美國眾議院前議長、Paradigm 政策委員會成員
Author: Paul D. Ryan, former President of the United States House of Representatives, member of the Paradigm Policy Committee
編譯：Luffy，Foresight News
This post is part of our special coverage Syria Protests 2011.
美國的經濟和社會實驗正處於一個關鍵的十字路口，這點在國家債務方面表現得最為明顯。美國正走向一場可預測但也可以避免的債務危機。如果不採取任何措施，經濟將停滯不前，政府對醫療保健和退休保障的承諾將落空。更嚴重的是，國防開支的削減將使國家處於危險之中。
America’s economic and social experiments are at a critical crossroads, which is most evident in terms of national debt. The US is heading toward a predictable but avoidable debt crisis.
在財政困局日益凸顯，有效解決方案依舊遙不可及的背景下，危機很可能始於失敗的國債拍賣，迫使財政預算進行大規模調整。隨著經濟萎縮，美元將遭受重大的信用衝擊，這將進一步危及經濟成長前景。顯而易見的答案是解決這些問題的根源。福利計畫是債務的驅動因素，需要改革，但政客們沒有勇氣去做他們需要做的事情。因此，這個國家走上了危險的道路。我們能做些什麼呢？
In a context where financial distress is becoming more pronounced, and where effective solutions remain elusive, the crisis is likely to start with failed national debt auctions, forcing the fiscal budget to make a massive adjustment. As the economy shrinks, the dollar will suffer a major credit shock, which will further jeopardize the prospects for economic growth. The obvious answer is the root of these problems.
不妨先認真考慮一下穩定幣。根據美國財政部和加密貨幣分析網站DeFiLlama 的數據，美元支持的穩定幣正在成為美國政府債務的重要淨購買者。如果將法定貨幣支持的美元穩定幣發行者看作一個國家，那麼它僅僅排在美國國債的前10 名持有者之後——比香港小，但比沙烏地阿拉伯大。如果該行業繼續成長，穩定幣可能會成為美國政府債務的最大購買者之一。
According to the US Treasury and the encrypted currency analysis website, DeFiLlama, the dollar-backed stable currency is becoming an important buyer of US government debt. If the legal dollar-backed steady currency issuer is considered a country, it is only ranked after the top 10 holders of US debt – smaller than Hong Kong, but bigger than Saudi Arabia.
穩定幣作為推廣美元的機制出現可謂恰逢其時。美元作為主要國際儲備貨幣的地位使美國受益匪淺。其好處包括：為財政支出提供廉價、可靠的融資，以及對全球金融體系產生巨大影響。由於美元的主導地位，大多數金融活動最終都會透過美國銀行進行。隨著全球經濟變得更加數位化和多極化，美元的主導地位不斷受到威脅。
The US benefits from the US as a major international reserve. The benefits include the provision of cheap, reliable financing for fiscal spending, and the impact on the global financial system. Most financial activity, given the dollar’s dominant position, will eventually pass through US banks.
中國明白正在發生的事。北京的金融當局已將數位貨幣作為該國國際發展戰略和外交政策的支柱。中國政府正在利用新興市場的實體和數位基礎設施投資，加上金融工程，將人民幣嵌入其可控制的網路中，以施加影響力。美國不能坐視其最大的國際競爭對手挖掘對安全且方便的數位貨幣的潛在需求。理解美元如何獲得權力的框架需要隨著世界的變化而更新。
China understands what is happening. Beijing’s financial authorities have made digital currency the backbone of the country’s international development strategy and foreign policy.
舉個例子，說明美元主導地位的驅動因素。假設一家日本公司向威斯康辛州的客戶出售產品或服務。該公司如何處理收到的美元？自1970 年代初以來，該公司可以將其投入規模龐大、流動性強的美國國債市場。最吸引人的地方在於，美國國債得到了世界上最具活力的經濟體的支持。畢竟，美國政府債務是對美國經濟未來產出的索取。
For example, to illustrate the driving force of the dominant position of the dollar. Assuming that a Japanese company sells products or services to customers in Wisconsin. How does the company deal with the dollars it receives? Since the early 1970s, the company has been able to invest in a large, fluid American debt market.
撇開美國政府債務不斷增長的問題，山姆大叔（註：美國的綽號和擬人化形象）能夠持續在國際市場上以低利率出售債務這一事實，證明了一件重要的事情：世界其他國家對美元的需求無止境。然而，有跡象表明，這一現狀可能正在改變，而且變化很快。
The fact that Uncle Sam has been able to continue selling his debt at low interest rates on the international market, despite the constant increase in US government debt, proves an important thing: the need for dollars in other countries of the world is endless. However, there are signs that this situation may be changing and changing rapidly.
中國和沙烏地阿拉伯等歷史上曾大量購買美國債務的國家正逐漸退出市場。它們開始越來越多地尋求美元體係以外的支付結算方式。同時，美國政府面臨債務拍賣失敗的風險也越來越大，這個可怕的未來將擾亂市場並嚴重損害美國的信譽。
Countries such as China and Saudi Arabia, which have purchased large amounts of US debt in history, are gradually withdrawing from the market. They have begun to seek out more and more dollars for extra-payment accounting.
如果其他國家在拋售美國國債的同時成功提升本國貨幣的影響力，美國將需要尋找新的方法來提高美元的吸引力。美元支持的穩定幣就是答案之一。
If other countries succeed in raising the influence of their national currency at the same time as they sell US bonds, the US will need to find new ways to make the dollar more attractive. The dollar-backed stable currency is one of the answers.
大多數穩定幣的持有者都來自經濟較弱落後的國家，而這些國家的底層機構正在尋找「更優質」的資金。正如商品期貨交易委員會前主席Timothy G. Massad 最近在布魯金斯學會的一篇研究論文中所描述的那樣，穩定幣類似於歐洲美元，即在冷戰期間推動美元主導地位的離岸美元計價負債。
Most of the holders of stable currencies come from countries with weaker economies, whose bottom structures are looking for “better” capital. As Timothy G. Massad, former Chairman of the Commodity Trading Commission, described in a recent study paper by the Brookings Institution, stable currencies are similar to European dollars, i.e., off-shore dollar debt that pushed the dollar’s dominant position during the cold war.
推廣美元支持的穩定幣將走上一條老路，並帶來明顯的短期利益。此舉將持久增加對美國債務的需求，並降低債務拍賣失敗和債務危機的風險。與中國的數位金融基礎設施不同，在公共、無需許可的區塊鏈上發行的美元支持的穩定幣蘊含著美國一貫的自由和開放價值。
Unlike China’s digital financial infrastructure, the US dollar-backed currency on a public, unlicensed chain holds the free and open value of the US.
一個健全、可預測的穩定幣監管框架得到了國會兩黨的支持，將有助於在關鍵時刻大幅擴大數位美元的使用。在選舉年，考慮到即將到來的所有醜陋的政治局面，我們需要一場這樣的勝利來穩固金融市場的信心。
A sound, predictable and stable monetary regulatory framework, supported by both parties in Congress, will help to significantly expand the use of the dollar at critical moments. In the election year, given all the ugly political situations that are about to come, we need a victory to stabilize confidence in the financial market.
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